Storylines to Watch in Week 5: Ian's Manifesto

And just like that: Week 5 is upon us. Let's break down some ball!

Every week I will be going through 10 key storylines ahead of all the NFL action, focusing on key fantasy-related trends, the week's biggest mismatches, my personal rankings of every game, bold predictions, and much more.

As always: It's a great day to be great.

1. What RB2s are drastically outperforming their team's RB1?

Deciphering whether a backup RB is actually *better* than the starter even when holding advantages in advanced metrics is tricky. On the one hand, they are indeed making more out of their opportunities behind the same offensive line. On the other, it makes sense that defenses devote fewer resources to defending the backup compared to the starter.

I attempted to account for some of this with a handful of Next-Gen Stats' handy-dandy metrics like rushing yards over expected and percentage of carries facing eight-plus defenders in the box. This will help show us which over-performing backup RBs might be truly making a case as the superior option, and which are perhaps simply benefiting from less defensive attention.

Starters:

Backups:

Turns out in each and every instance the sampled RB2s have performed better in terms of yards per carry over expected, but did benefit from facing less-crowded boxes. This part of the equation is considered when calculating the initial yards over expected in the first place; just realize the raw yards per carry numbers are admittedly skewed.

That said: Several of these backup RBs deserve some love on the waiver wire and/or trade market due to their potential to keep on keeping on and accordingly earn more fantasy-friendly work moving forward. The likes of Chase Brown (rostered in 62% of Yahoo leagues), Bucky Irving (53%) and Braelon Allen (52%) probably aren't available in your league, while Cordarrelle Patterson (ankle) is banged up and only elevated as long as Jaylen Warren (hamstring) remains sidelined, but the remaining four options are quietly VERY solid bench stashes:

• Tank Bigsby (available in 88% of Yahoo leagues): Joins Saquon Barkley, Kenneth Walker and Tony Pollard as the only four RBs to reach a top speed of at least 20 MPH on multiple carries this season. Bigsby is slowly but surely eating into ETN's workload and is one injury away from instantly vaulting into the upside RB2 discussion—he's accordingly Dwain McFarland's favorite RB waiver wire target this week.
• Antonio Gibson (available in 83% of Yahoo leagues): Fourth in rush yards over expected in the entire NFL and has averaged a gaudy 10.3 yards per target this season. Rhamondre Stevenson has fumbled not once, not twice, not thrice, but four times this year; Gibson has the every-down skillset to work as a volume-based RB2 should the Patriots ever decide, or be forced via injury, to give him an extended look as the lead back.
• Tyler Allgeier (available in 77% of Yahoo leagues): Actually out-touched Bijan Robinson in Week 4 despite Arthur Smith now residing in Pittsburgh. All Drake and Joshing around aside, Allgeier has always been a high-end handcuff and remains someone worth stashing on benches when possible thanks to his proven every-down skillset.
• Alexander Mattison (available in 67% of Yahoo leagues): Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce said this week on Mattison: "He's deserved more reps. And he'll get 'em." The problem is that Zamir White doesn't figure to become a complete afterthought, and it's possible Ameer Abdullah and/or Dylan Laube complicate matters in an offense not exactly overflowing with fantasy-friendly scoring opportunities in the first place. 

2. Is Jayden Daniels on pace to be the best rookie QB … ever?

It's certainly looking that way! The rookie finds himself on lists alongside Peyton Manning and Tom Brady and has single-handedly restored Fantasy Life's fearless leader Matthew Berry's faith in humanity.

Right now Daniels is one of just five rookies ever to average north of 20 fantasy points per game:

• Deshaun Watson (24.1 fantasy points per game)
• Daniels (23.4)
• Cam Newton (23.1)
• Justin Herbert (22.2)
• Robert Griffin (21.2)

Daniels' success as a rusher isn't all that surprising. The 2023 Heisman Trophy winner was expected to dominate on the ground even while developing as a passer, and he's accordingly posted elite numbers in rush attempts (46, 1st), yards (218, 2nd) and TDs (4, 1st) at the position through four weeks of action.

It's the passing goodness that has really been impressive. We're looking at the No. 1 QB in the NFL at the moment in terms of EPA per dropback and completion percentage over expected.

Reminder: Daniels is doing all this with *one* pass catcher most people consider to be good at football and is working behind an offensive line that was ranked as PFF's sixth-worst group in the league entering the season. Obviously, Kliff Kingsbury and Co. deserve a lot of credit for putting the 2024 NFL Draft's No. 2 overall pick in a position to succeed, but it's clear Daniels has elevated the personnel around him in a major way after just four short weeks at the professional level.

At this point, I'd take Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson ahead of Daniels among all QBs in a rest-of-the-season fantasy draft. That's it. Don't be surprised if we get another fantasy-friendly performance against a Browns defense that hasn't been nearly as dominant in 2024 compared to 2023 while dealing with a hobbled Myles Garrett.

3. When is this Garrett Wilson breakout thing going to happen?

Through four weeks the third-year talent rests as just the WR43 in PPR points per game, tied with Chargers WR Quentin Johnston. Not one, not two, but *three* Raiders WRs are averaging more fantasy points per game than Wilson at the moment. His average of 5.6 yards per target ranks 31st among 36 WRs with at least 25 targets this season. Wilson himself doesn't seem too happy with the direction of the offense.

The raw production is somehow quite a bit worse than what we saw from Wilson while dealing with the Zach Wilson experience during the first two seasons of his career:

Wilson in Weeks 1-4:

• 2022: 20 receptions-255 yards-2 TD
• 2023: 21-225-2
• 2024: 20-191-1

Now, matchups against the 49ers (No. 11 in EPA allowed per dropback), Titans (No. 9), Patriots (No. 26) and Broncos (No. 3) haven't helped matters, but then again that's not exactly something we should expect to improve in upcoming dates with the Vikings (No. 1), Bills (No. 6), Steelers (No. 10).

So to recap: Wilson hasn't made the most of his opportunities this season, his production has accordingly been bad, and the tough schedule isn't getting any easier anytime soon. Other than that, things are going great!

In all seriousness, the one thing that potential buy-low fantasy aficionados should be pleased about: Volume. Wilson's 34 targets are 10 more than any other Jet can attest to having this season, and his marks in target share (26%, 16th) as well as WOPR (65%, 19th) are firmly in WR2 territory–something that should help lead to WR1-level production should Wilson prove to be as good as the hype indicates.

Ultimately, the 24-year-old remains the clear-cut No. 1 option in an offense led by Aaron Rodgers, who has passed the eye test in consecutive weeks from a pure arm talent perspective. Maybe we won't see a true extended stretch of blowups until later in the season, but I will continue to buy low on Wilson as long as possible in the hopes that eventually his high-end talent and volume will (wait for it) lead to high-end production.

4. What if the Colts are without their top two offensive players?

Both Anthony Richardson (hip, abdominal) and (especially) Jonathan Taylor (ankle) look questionable ahead of the team's Week 5 date with the Jaguars.

I wrote at length about Richardson last week, noting how his fantasy-friendly rushing archetype simply doesn't make a habit of busting in fantasy land, even if the passing efficiency has left a lot to be desired this season. Unfortunately, a hot start in Week 4–Richardson was five yards away from capping off his second 70-plus yard TD drive of the first quarter against the Steelers prior to being injured–would be undone and once again leaves us questioning whether or not the 2023 NFL Draft's No. 4 overall pick has what it takes to lead this theoretically potent Colts offense.

Richardson will be tough to rank outside the position's top-12 options if active against the Jaguars' league-worst defense in fantasy points per game allowed to opposing QBs. That said, it's hard not to get excited about the potential upside of these WRs should Joe Flacco draw the start.

We saw the following utilization out of Michael Pittman, Josh Downs, Alec Pierce and Adonai Mitchell in Week 4 with Flacco throwing 26 of the team's 30 total passes:

While Mitchell deserves some slack for being missed on a LOT of big plays to start the season, he's currently the odd man out with Downs back in the picture. Yes, Pittman and Pierce are the outside WRs in 12 personnel. Also yes, this amounted to 27 and 26 routes compared to 23 for the Colts' slot maven in Week 4. I believe this factor is generally overrated when looking at baller inside options like Downs and Jayden Reed due to the reality that we're often only looking at a difference of a few total routes per game.

Don't be surprised if all three parties find a way to make some big plays this Sunday against a Jaguars secondary that has been torched by essentially every WR room they've faced this season.

WRs vs. the Jaguars in Weeks 1-4:

• Nico Collins: 12 receptions-151 yards-1 TD
• Tyreek Hill: 7-130-1
• Jaylen Waddle: 5-109-0
• Jerry Jeudy: 5-73-0
• Khalil Shakir: 6-72-1
• Stefon Diggs: 5-69-0
• Elijah Moore: 6-44-0

Overall, only the Lions, Commanders, Vikings and Eagles have allowed more PPR points per game to opposing WRs than the Jaguars. I'm putting my biggest chip on Pittman, but he's neck-and-neck with Downs as borderline WR2 candidates with Flacco under center, and Pierce is a viable boom-or-bust WR4 option as well.

There's also the whole Trey Sermon RB1 dilemma. The former third-round pick has been the next-man-up behind Taylor this season, although Week 2's utilization also included a bit more Tyler Goodson than fantasy managers would prefer.

While the Jaguars have been a godsend for opposing passing games, their front seven is the strength of the defense and they have accordingly allowed just 325 rushing yards to opposing RBs this season–the seventh-lowest mark in the league. I'd expect Sermon to handle the majority of rush attempts; he's deserving of volume-based low-end RB2 treatment in a similar manner as what we've seen from Cam Akers with Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce sidelined–just don't get carried away and start the career backup over guys like Najee Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson or Devin Singletary, who are far more likely to be trusted as every-down backs in their respectable winnable matchups. 

5. Is meow the time to buy Brandon Aiyuk?

Well, things can't really get much worse for the 49ers' $120-million man. Aiyuk has kicked off 2024 with four consecutive duds in some admittingly tough matchups:

• Week 1 (Jets): 2 receptions-28 yards-0 TD (5 targets), PPR WR66
• Week 2: (Vikings): 4-43-0 (5), WR40
• Week 3 (Rams): 5-48-0 (10), WR44
• Week 4 (Patriots): 2-48-0 (5), WR61

Aiyuk already has as many regular-season games with under 50 receiving yards (4) as he did in all of 2023. Not great for someone who most fantasy managers spent something close to a third-round pick to acquire a few short weeks ago.

Here's the thing: Aiyuk didn't magically lose the ability to play football. Advanced separation metrics still paint him as a top-five player at the position; the problem has been the reality that the 49ers have (again) been content to spread the football around in the passing game.

49ers targets in Weeks 1-4:

• Jauan Jennings (27)
• Aiyuk (25)
• Deebo Samuel (24)
• George Kittle (17)
• Kyle Juszczyk (10)

It's possible Aiyuk wouldn't be as high as he is had Deebo and Kittle not been forced to miss Week 3. Things are not going great … but that doesn't mean they can't change in a hurry.

First, Aiyuk remains this offense's No. 1 WR: His 90% route rate in Week 4 easily topped both Samuel (83%) and especially Jennings (67%).

Second, we're talking about the same guy who just averaged the most yards per target (12.8) in a single season since the metric began being tracked back in 1992.

Third, the upcoming schedule is more than winnable with dates against the Cardinals (No. 29), Seahawks (No. 8, but badly failed their first real test of the season), Chiefs (No. 16) and Cowboys (No. 18) ahead of the team's Week 9 bye.

I don't like Aiyuk's potential of bouncing back in a major way this week against the Cardinals–I love it. Don't be afraid to buy low before one of the position's premier talents begins posting familiar high-end production; one-for-one trades completed on Monday and Tuesday include Aiyuk being acquired for guys like Chase Brown, Christian Kirk, and Najee Harris.

6. Where should Justin Fields be ranked for the rest of the season?

Pretty high! Like, definitely top-12 at the position if not top-8 high. After all, fantasy's QB6 through four weeks of action has demonstrated high-end ability as expected on the ground (only Jayden Daniels and Lamar Jackson have more fantasy points from purely rushing production) and surprisingly through the air.

Seriously: Fields posted the exact same passing production against the Chargers that Patrick Mahomes just did. Make whatever excuse you want about the scheme (Arthur Smith?), matchups (Falcons, Broncos, Chargers weren't gimmes to start the year), or personnel (George Pickens … and who else?): Fields has good-to-great numbers in pretty much any advanced-efficiency metric one might want to look at.

Fields among 33 qualified QBs:

• EPA per dropback: +0.01 (No. 14)
• Completion percentage over expected: +4.8% (No. 4)
• Passer rating: 98.0 (No. 12)
• Yards per attempt: 7.6 (No. 11)
• PFF pass grade: 78.1 (No. 7)

Fields is essentially operating as a middle-class man's Lamar Jackson after a month of action. That's really good! NFL Network's Ian Rapoport accordingly expects Fields to continue starting despite Russell Wilson (calf) being on track to end this week as a full participant in practice if all goes well.

Reminder: Fields is the QB7 in fantasy points per game (18.8) behind only Josh Allen, Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, and Joe Burrow among all signal callers with at least four starts over the past three seasons. Even a crash back to reality as a passer wouldn't necessarily be the end of the world for one of the position's most lethal rushers–something that figures to be on full display as long as this Steelers backfield remains all kinds of banged up.

Up next for Fields and Co. is a Cowboys defense that ranks 27th in scoring and will likely be without arguably their top-two defenders in Micah Parsons (ankle) and DeMarcus Lawrence (foot, IR). Fire up the 25-year-old talent as a legit top-8 option at the position; the only QBs I'd for sure start ahead of Fields this week are Jackson, Allen, Daniels, Jordan Love, Brock Purdy, Kyler Murray, and C.J. Stroud.

7. What defenses should we be actively attacking in fantasy land?

I put together the below chart showing PPR fantasy points per game allowed by position and overall to get an idea of which groups we should be especially willing to target in close start/sit decisions.

Example: The Colts and Browns have the best overall matchups this week. The Cowboys and Vikings have the worst.

Continuing to target the Jaguars, Commanders, Rams, Colts and Panthers' sad excuses for defenses makes a ton of sense—all five groups have largely struggled to slow down opposing pass and run games alike through three weeks and do NOT deserve the benefit of the doubt until they prove otherwise.

Additionally, the following defenses have done a relatively good job limiting opposing RBs this season, but have some troubling numbers against opposing QBs and WRs. These are what the kids might call pass-funnel matchups:

• Vikings (facing the Jets): While Brian Flores' blitz-happy defense received a lot of praise for its collective real-life efforts against C.J. Stroud and Co. in Week 3, they surrendered 294 passing yards against the 49ers and a whopping 379 against the Packers. Old man Stephon Gilmore is the only Vikings corner with a PFF coverage grade inside the top-70 corners this season; don't be surprised if Garrett Wilson and Co. create some big plays if Aaron Rodgers is able to work from a clean pocket with any level of consistency (not a given).
• Ravens (facing the Bengals): The Ravens have allowed just 72, 27, 51, and 81 rush yards during their first four games of the season, but haven't always been as dominant against the pass. Enter: Joe Burrow, who has thrown multiple TDs in three consecutive games while generally looking like his usual baller self this season. This Bengals passing attack is capable of putting points up on anyone when fully healthy, which they are for the moment.

Let's keep the mismatch vibe going with a look at some more specific facets of the game that could be leaning heavily one way or another.

8. What are the biggest on-paper mismatches in Week 5?

Every week I put together a group of charts meant to provide easy-to-decipher matchup advantages on both sides of the ball in a handful of categories. This includes combined explosive pass/run-play rates, pressure, yards before contact, pass yards per dropback and EPA per play. The idea is to have one metric to show a mismatch instead of always going, "Offense ranks x, defense ranks y."

The data includes only Weeks 1-4 numbers, so take some of the analysis with a bit of a grain of salt. Things will get clearer as we get more and more 2024 info.

Without further adieu: The week's biggest mismatches in these ever-important categories. Feel free to click on any of the below categories for a full chart.

• Explosive passing offense: The Packers, 49ers, Rams, Cowboys, and Colts passing games appear to be set up quite well. However, the Browns, Raiders, and Giants aren't looking too hot at the moment ahead of their tough respective matchups.
• Explosive running offense: The Seahawks, Browns, and Jaguars all look poised to do good things on the ground this week. Meanwhile, the Jets, Chiefs, and Bengals, in particular, look to have their work cut out for them.
• Pressure: The Panthers, Ravens, Bengals, and Bears look ready to provide plenty of clean pockets this week, while the Patriots, Giants, Falcons, and Vikings could be facing more pressure than they'd prefer.
• Yards before contact per carry: RBs from the Ravens, Texans, and Cardinals might have more clear runways than usual this week, but the opposite is true for the Buccaneers, Jets, and Patriots.
• Pass yards per dropback: The best setup passing attacks look like the Packers, 49ers, Colts, and Saints this week, while the worst look like the Patriots, Raiders, and Broncos.
• EPA per play: Ravens-Bengals stands out as THE shootout of the week, whereas Raiders-Broncos and Dolphins-Patriots look like the defensive slugfests.

9. Ranking every game of the week from a biased entertainment perspective

I remain steadfast in the idea that no NFL game is inherently "bad." Complaining about specific matchups is ignoring the reality that relatively *bad* football is so much better than *no* football; we should NEVER dismiss any given 60 minutes of professional action on the gridiron.

With that said: Some matchups are indeed more awesome than others, so let's take a quick second to rank every matchup of the week in terms of what I'm looking forward to most through my own biased lenses:

1. Bills-Texans: The first-ever matchup between Josh Allen and C.J. Stroud. Stefon Diggs revenge game. Need we say any more?
2. Ravens-Bengals: This AFC North battle might technically be between 2-2 and 1-3 squads, but that only makes the result even more important. Get your popcorn ready for the week's only matchup with a game total north of 50.
3. Cardinals-49ers: Is the Arizona offense great or are they just good enough to beat up on the Rams? Meanwhile, Brock Purdy and Co. have scored 45, 35, 38, and 38 points in their last four matchups against the Cardinals. This potential fantasy-friendly shootout boasts the second-highest game total (49.5) of Week 5.
4. Jets-Vikings: The first international game of the season will inevitably feature London fans rocking random-ass jerseys all over the place, which always gets a good giggle out of me. It'll also be nice to see if Sam Darnold and the Vikings' fourth-ranked offense can keep on keeping on against their toughest test yet.
5. Packers-Rams: It'd be a lot cooler if the Rams offense was healthier, but still: Sean McVay vs. Matt LaFleur are two of the game's brightest offensive minds; don't be surprised if Matthew Stafford and Jordan Love find a way to put all kinds of points up on the board against two defenses that haven't exactly earned the benefit of the doubt.
6. Cowboys-Steelers: We'll be waiting all day for a Sunday night clash between Dak Prescott and Justin Fields. The expected absence of the Cowboys' top-two defenders leaves this one a bit short on defensive starpower, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't be excited about a matchup between two franchises with a combined 11 Super Bowl titles.
7. Saints-Chiefs: Monday Night Football features the sliding Saints and banged-up Chiefs. Healthier versions of both squads could have had this as a top-3 matchup on the week, but alas. Still, there's plenty of starpower between the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and (obviously) Rashid Shaheed.
8. Buccaneers-Falcons: Thursday Night Football features a battle for the NFC South crown. Maybe Baker Mayfield and Kirk Cousins manage to provide some fireworks, although expecting quality football to be played on a Thursday is probably wishful thinking.
9. Panthers-Bears: Andy Dalton revenge game! DJ Moore revenge game! And a chance for Caleb Williams to remind Panthers fans what they missed out on by trading the farm for Bryce Young. That is, if Williams, you know, starts playing good football.
10. Browns-Commanders: The Jayden Daniels experience is a helluva drug.
11. Giants-Seahawks: Please be healthy, Malik Nabers (concussion). Otherwise, Geno Smith and the Seahawks' high-flying attack will have to carry the entertainment burden in this one.
12. Colts-Jaguars: The Anthony Richardson (hip, abdominal) experience is usually pretty fun for better or worse, while watching Mr. Elite tell Father Time to f*ck off has also been an unexpected joy over the past two seasons. Meanwhile in Jacksonville, maybe this could be the rock bottom showing that gets Doug Pederson canned?
13. Raiders-Broncos: The ugly stepchildren of the AFC West boast the week's second-lowest game total at 36.5 points. At least the Broncos defense looks legit.
14. Dolphins-Patriots: The Dolphins might be the least inspiring team in football at the moment, while the Patriots refuse to play Drake Maye so he won't get hurt or something. Could the 2024 NFL Draft's No. 3 overall pick perhaps help raise the floor of everyone around him in a similar manner as C.J. Stroud and Jayden Daniels have done? I guess we'll never know!

10. Three bold predictions for Week 5:

Every week I'll put my reputation on the line regarding a handful of players I believe could outperform their general fantasy-related expectations. The majority will NOT work out—they wouldn't be bold otherwise—but will that stop me? Hell no!

Without further adieu: Let's get weird.

• Packers WR Romeo Doubs: Are Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks really good at football? Yes. Is Doubs still perfectly capable of having a big game in this pristine matchup in his own right? Also, yes. Call me a contrarian, but maybe the WR Jordan Love most trusts with his wedding rings shouldn't be disregarded as an afterthought in the equation. I got the Packers’ leading target earner since Week 1 of last season going for 100-plus yards and not one but TWO TDs this weekend.
• 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk: Building off our previous section on Aiyuk: I'd be SHOCKED if one of the game's most-talented WRs goes much longer without a blowup performance, and what better time than against a Cardinals defense that Kyle Shanahan and Co. have absolutely owned over the years? I'm calling for 7 receptions for 125 yards and a pair of scores for the 49ers' high-priced WR1.
• Colts WR Josh Downs: The shifty slot maven might just be the best WR on the Colts, and the potential presence of Joe Flacco under center *and* absence of Jonathan Taylor figures to push this Indy offense heavily toward the passing game. I like Downs' chances of clearing 20, hell, 25 PPR points against the league's worst defense in fantasy points per game allowed to the position.

Players highlighted last week and results: Justin Fields (312-1-0 passing, 10-55-2 rushing), Tank Dell (injured and didn't play), and Tee Higgins (6-60-0).

Other cool shit

• Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield: Last year was seen as Baker's bounceback to relevance, but he's actually been even better this season. The former No. 1 overall pick is averaging a career-high 8.2 adjusted yards per attempt and has a triple-digit passer rating for the first time of his career. Only Dak Prescott and Jordan Love (13) have more games with multiple passing TDs than Mayfield (12) since the beginning of last season.
• Falcons WR Darnell Mooney: The ex-Bears veteran is looking smooth with his new employer and is currently averaging career-high marks in yards per reception (15) and yards per target (9.4). The Falcons leader in receiving yards (!) through four weeks, Mooney is living up to his high-priced offseason contract thus far.
• Vikings QB Sam Darnold: The arguable early-season frontrunner for MVP surprisingly hasn't been leaned on all that much this season due to the team's consistently positive game script. Consider: The Vikings have thrown the fifth-fewest passes this season–Justin Jefferson hasn't cleared 8 targets in a game yet! 
• Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard: Only 3 RBs have scored 50 PPR points over the past two weeks: Derrick Henry (66.3), Kyren Williams (52), and … Chuba! With Jonathon Brooks (knee, IR) still not returning to practice, fire up Hubbard as a volume-based RB2 at worst in this suddenly not-shitty Panthers offense.
• Bears QB Caleb Williams: It's only been four games. It's only been four games. It's only been four games. That said: Williams has cleared 175 passing yards just once and has lost a league-high 124 yards from sacks. Adjusted net yards per pass attempt accounts for things like sacks, TDs, and INTs in addition to yards … and Williams' 3.46 mark ranks 32nd among 36 qualified QBs.
• Browns WRs Amari Cooper and Elijah Moore: The NFL's bottom-two WRs in yards per target among 72 receivers with at least 15 pass-game opportunities. Of course, Cooper's efficiency would look a lot better had this 82-yard house call not been nullified by a ticky-tack holding penalty last week. Sheesh.
• Dolphins offense: Mike McDaniel's group has averaged just 3.5 yards per play over the past two weeks without the services of Tua Tagovailoa. Last year they ranked second at 6.5. Turns out Tua … is the system?
• Patriots offense: The Patriots (4) join the Bears (3.9) and Browns (3.9) as the only offenses averaging four or fewer yards per play this season. Jacoby Brissett has taken 15 sacks already, although his average time to throw (2.97 seconds, 8th highest) and pressure-to-sack ratio (25.9%, 10th worst) hasn't exactly made life easier on New England's much-criticized offensive line.
• Jaguars WR Brian Thomas Jr.: DOG. His Week 4 boxscore would have been even bigger with a little bit of help from his friends (Trevor Lawrence), but either way the rookie's average of 2.35 yards per route run ranks 16th among 54 qualified WRs and trails only Malik Nabers (2.54) among rookies.
• Bills QB Josh Allen: His 7.3 fantasy points on Sunday night were his fewest in a game during the last five seasons. Will this persist? Probably not. But still! Madness.
• Texans WR Nico Collins: Averaging 18.5 PPR points per game since Week 1 of last season (WR7). He's on pace for 2,079 receiving yards at the moment. Is that good?
• Ravens run game: Lamar Jackson (7.5 yards per carry), Derrick Henry (6), Zay Flowers (5.7), and Justice Hill (5.4) are all balling on the ground. Overall, the Ravens are the NFL's only team in the NFL averaging north of 6 yards per carry (6.4, next-closest 5.7). Pretty, pretty, pretty good.
• Lions QB Jared Goff: Has more PPR points from receiving (6.7) than Ravens TE Mark Andrews (6.5) this season. Pain.
• Raiders TE Brock Bowers: Has three touches in consecutive weeks after looking like the potential overall TE1 following the first two weeks of the season. Very cool.
• Cardinals offense: Yards per play by week: Week 1 (4.5, 24th), Week 2 (7.9, 1st), Week 3 (5.2, 19th), and Week 4 (5.1, 20th). Translation: This has been a below-average offense when not facing arguably the worst defense in the league. Up next: The 49ers.
• Seahawks WR DK Metcalf: Has gone over the century mark in three consecutive games and is presently averaging a career-high 91.5 receiving yards per game. Up next is a Giants defense that had few answers for CeeDee Lamb (7-98-1) last week. Giddyup.
• Packers WRs: Yards per target this season: Jayden Reed (15.3), Christian Watson (10), Bo Melton (9.3), Romeo Doubs (8.5), and ... Dontayvion Wicks (4.7).
• Cowboys QB Dak Prescott: Presently averaging a career-low 53.9 QBR on an offense with exactly *one* high-end place to go with the football. Have you guys heard the Raiders might be open to trading Davante Adams?
• Giants WRs Malik Nabers and Wan'Dale Robinson: Have commanded 66% of the Giants' targets. Only the Eagles, Colts, Saints, Texans and Buccaneers have also fed over half their offense's pass-game opportunities through two individual WRs.