I hate touchdowns. 

Well, let me back up for a second. It’s complicated.

As a fan of the game, I love seeing a player get into the end zone. From showing some swag to flexing on a would-be defender, putting six points on the board is an adrenaline rush. However, the fantasy analyst in me becomes uneasy for a few reasons whenever a team gets into scoring position.

First off, they’re tough to predict. CeeDee Lamb scored the most of any pass-catcher last season, and he found the paint 14 times. That’s just less than once per game. Along the same vein, an offense will score, but it’ll be Jake Bobo doing his celebration routine instead of DK Metcalf using ASL to remind us he stands on business. So, instead, I focus on chances at scoring versus banking on my guys actually doing it.

Coincidentally, the folks over at Yahoo had similar thoughts. Their $1 Million NBC Sweepstakes allows you to earn additional entries for each touchdown scored by a player in your starting lineup playing in any of the three Week 1 games aired on NBC/Peacock. But I don’t want to jeopardize my chances of winning the league while battling for generational wealth. Luckily, there’s a way we can do both.

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The Basics

Yahoo will prompt you to enter the sweepstakes after you join or create a free private league (NOTE: You need to opt-in to the sweepstakes AND create a private league to be eligible). And we’ve already got the list of contests airing on NBC/Peacock:

  • Baltimore Ravens vs. Kansas City Chiefs (on NBC) at 8:20 p.m. ET on Thursday, Sept. 5
  • Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles (on Peacock) at 8:15 p.m. ET on Friday, Sept. 6
  • Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions (on NBC) at 8:20  p.m. ET on Sunday, Sept. 8

If you’re like me, your ‘Week 1 brain’ is already focused on the likely starters in each matchup. I took it a step further and pulled up red-zone workloads. Now, I want everyone from Lamar Jackson to Demarcus Robinson on my squad. But here’s the thing: everyone else in your league will, too. So, we need to juggle season-long matchups and finding Week 1 TD scorers while keeping our ADP aggression in check. Luckily, we have a tool to help set expectations.

Our Draft Champion tool can simulate a mock using any site’s ADP. Accordingly, we can build teams that can give us equal shots at the million-dollar prize and a league championship (although I’d rather have the former). Let’s assemble a few from different positions and identify potential draft targets worth reaching for or passing on at cost.

Drafting from an Early Position (Slots 1-4)

I chose the 1.03 to keep things somewhat fair. In any case, we’ve got something of a choice, anyway.

 

 

To be clear, I’m taking Tyreek Hill. He’s had consecutive seasons earning more than 30% of Miami’s target share while still posting a ludicrous 23.5 PPR PPG. Good on the Sun God continuing his ascension into the heavens as one of the premier WRs (20.7 PPR PPG, ninth in target share). But I can still get access to our target games without ceding three points each week. 

 

Just by following Yahoo’s ADP, I have assets from two games on our list. We can expect Isiah Pacheco’s role to grow with Jerick McKinnon gone. Only Amon-Ra St. Brown garnered more red-zone looks from Jared Goff than Sam LaPorta, who tied Travis Kelce for the second-most attempts from inside the 10-yard line. The key takeaway here is balancing season-long upside with shots at Week 1 scoring. However, there are other ways to execute the same idea.

Puka Nacua’s knee injury should close the ADP gap between him and Cooper Kupp. When healthy, the former Triple Crown winner garnered just two fewer targets while dominating in the red zone, 23-17. Injuries to their offensive line could force them back to passing more once in scoring position. Their RZ PROE was the lowest it's been since Matthew Stafford joined the squad in 2021. A possible Hero RB build could start Hill, Kupp, and plug in Derrick Henry while maintaining a strong early-round squad.

Drafting from a Middle Position (Slots 5-8)

The middle positions present us with a similar challenge.

If I’m at the 1.05 or 1.06, I’m prioritizing the RBs or Justin Jefferson over A.J. Brown. Admittedly, they all have some systemic risk attached to their 2024 outlook. Their (likely) Week 1 QBs are either coming off injury or are named Sam Darnold. But over a 17-game regular season, their touch shares are hard to replace. However, it’s not like the next few rounds give us better targets for Week 1 TDs in the games we’re targeting.

I prefer Hero RB (or Anchor RB) builds, so I’m not completely boxed out and need to rely on a committee of rushers to fill both starter slots. As a result, my team drafting from the six hole doesn’t have any starters in the Week 1 NBC/Peacock games. But the (simulated) league “gifted” me multiple potential TD scorers to close out the early rounds.

I didn’t show it in the image, but I tacked on Jayden Reed in the seventh round. I only mention him as Diontae Johnson was also available, whom I (usually) take over Reed. However, with both sitting in the same tier, breaking ties in favor of an extra million-dollar ticket isn’t outlandish.

At any rate, having a draft strategy like Hero RB in mind allows me to take detours at the onesies to snag Patrick Mahomes and Mark Andrews. I’ll prioritize ballcarriers later. In any case, without sacrificing opportunity cost, my nucleus looks no different than if I were vying for $1 million or just enough from winning my home league to justify to my wife how I should play next year. Drafting from a late position can be done similarly but requires a bit more forethought. 

Fantasy Life's 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit is LIVE (and free)! Click here to access all of the content you need to dominate your drafts this summer.

Drafting from a Late Position (Slots 9-12)

Again, let’s start with the first round. I drafted from the 1.10 in another simulated mock, and the Draft Assistant gave me my top options.

I’ll leave Jahmyr Gibbs alone for a second and focus on the WRs. My first inclination is to take one of them. It’s a PPR league, six just came off the board, and I don’t want to get bowled over by the ensuing WR avalanche. As always, I can use our rankings and tiers to break ties.

Two takeaways here. First, leaning toward Garrett Wilson over Jahmyr Gibbs aligns with our original goal of maintaining parity between the contest and winning the league. Our projections have the Jets’ WR1 ahead of Gibbs by nearly 30 points. Plus, all is not lost. From a late position, we can leverage draft tendencies at the turn and get the best of both worlds.

Will this happen in your league? Assuredly not.

Can you alter the names to apply the basic concepts? Absolutely.

Swap Gibbs for Saquon Barkley against the Packers’ defense that ranked 22nd in rushing EPA allowed last season and return their same starters on run defense, and you’ve accomplished the same task. Or, open with Gibbs and take Drake London, with a PPR projection just 14 points shy of Wilson’s, as your WR1. With our tools and rankings, taking down your league and earning a cool $1 million as a bonus isn’t as hard as it may seem.

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