Fantasy football drafts are about picking the best team possible and then blaming injuries or unforeseen regression when things don't go our way. Something like that.

But then again, what if this is the year that every single one of our August theories turn out correct? What if the sleepers all wake up? What if the boom-or-bust dart throws all happen to boom? What if "my guys" don't suck?

Wishful thinking perhaps — but shooters shoot, and drafters draft: What follows is my preferred draft strategy by round alongside some of my favorite singular draft picks based on current ESPN fantasy football ADP.

As always: It's a great day to be great.

Round 1

  • General strategy: Draft one of the many ballers available, preferably one of the top-three RBs to set up a Hero- or Superhero-RB build if the board falls my way.
  • Favorite targets: They're all pretty great, but it's tough to not prefer Bijan Robinson or Breece Hall in the early-middle portions of Round 1 given some of the newfound question marks with the top-five WRs.
  • Tier breaks: Tier 1 of RB and WR will be gone by the time Round 1 is over.

Look: It's Round 1. You will walk away with an alpha WR1 or a running back with 300-plus touches and double-digit TDs firmly in their potential range of outcomes. It's fair to feel a bit queasy about guys like Christian McCaffrey (calf), CeeDee Lamb (holding out) and Ja'Marr Chase (holding in) at the top of drafts, but then again those proven ballers are one piece of good news away from (again) being blue-chip selections at the top of any draft — I'm not fading them based on what we know at the moment.

Hero-RB is my preferred draft strategy this year; just realize we better have a HERO-worthy RB to swing it. For Round 1, I consider CMC, Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall as worthwhile candidates; otherwise give me one of the stud WRs with the potential to breeze past 150 targets. All good either way.

Round 2

  • General strategy: Lock down a workhorse RB or electric committee option if you didn't get an RB in Round 1, otherwise move down the line at WR and keep building.
  • Favorite targets: Both Jahmyr Gibbs and De'Von Achane have "break fantasy football" upside if things go their way this season, and I'm also not sleeping on Isiah Pacheco considering the Chiefs' soft RB depth chart and his potential to be a true workhorse in a sweet offense.
  • Tier breaks: The de facto RB dead zone arguably begins after guys like Pacheco, Derrick Henry and Achane are off the board, while one can argue there's a LONG tier of upside WR2 options after the top-10 WRs (Drake London is usually the breaking point) are gone.

I'm not against starting drafts with a "Superhero" (two) RB build in leagues that only have two starting WR spots because the position starts to get a bit murky for the next few rounds. There are also some pretty extreme pricing discrepancies at WR in home leagues like ESPN and Yahoo, so securing two of the top eight or so RBs before turning our attention elsewhere is hardly malpractice.

Still, it's tough to not love guys like Garrett Wilson, Puka Nacua, Marvin Harrison Jr. and/or Drake London at this point of the draft if your room is going heavy at RB early. Each is a talented No. 1 WR with high-end target upside in an offense led by a QB we consider to be good at football. Just like in Round 1, I'm not really entering Round 2 firmly devoted to taking a specific position; be willing to take the value as it reveals itself.

Example: Dwain McFarland and myself completed a RT Sports high-stakes draft last Thursday and wound up starting Chase-Puka out of the 1.09 spot. We were willing to take Jonathan Taylor if he fell to us, but he didn't, so we took the alpha WR still available instead of attempting to play catch-up. Be like water.

Round 3

  • General strategy: I prefer to usually wait at least one more round before diving into the elite QB/TE waters due to the possibility that a dope RB or WR falls.
  • Favorite targets: De'Von Achane is a Round 2 pick in most high-stakes leagues but does fall to Round 3 in some home leagues. There's also potential to get ascending WR talents like Drake London or Nico Collins based on present ESPN ADP.
  • Tier breaks: Achane is pretty much the only RB with a chance of being available here that I'm willing to draft, otherwise WR, QB and TE alike are dealing with extended tiers, making this a good round to lean to the best player available.

It's a free country: I'm not going to fly to your house and fight you if you want to take Josh Allen or Sam LaPorta here. Still, guys like Lamar Jackson and even Patrick Mahomes have the potential to fall to Round 4, and I don't see a huge difference in LaPorta and Travis Kelce compared to someone like Mark Andrews.

To each their own, but rosters without an RB yet can look to someone like Achane if available (the man is arguably being priced closer to his floor than ceiling), while WR1 candidates like London and Collins are also Round 3 bargains if available. You don't want to exit Round 3 with zero WRs.

Round 4

  • General strategy: Elite QB or TE is firmly in play, otherwise be happy to keep building that WR core.
  • Favorite targets: The 49ers WRs as well as guys like Cooper Kupp, DeVonta Smith and DK Metcalf are solid targets, same as Mark Andrews and a potentially falling elite QB.
  • Tier breaks: The big four QBs will usually be off the board by this point. The same sentiment is also typically true at TE.

Drafters who started with three WRs could look to RBs like Rachaad White, Josh Jacobs, or Kenneth Walker here, although I struggle to see THAT big of a difference in their projected outlook vs. cheaper archetypes like David Montgomery and James Conner, who are usually still available in Round 7. This is why in general I prefer to have one if not two RBs through the first three rounds.

Some of these WR values might be too good to pass up if the current ADP holds. That said, every draft is different, so I'm happy to take a top-four QB or TE if the opportunity presents itself. It's not a necessity just yet, but this is usually the earliest I'm willing to start looking at the onesies.

Round 5

  • General strategy: Continue to be willing to buy the dip on elite QB/TE options, otherwise it's tough to not be enthralled with some of the WRs on the board.
  • Favorite targets: Jaylen Waddle and Malik Nabers still potentially being available here is a gift from the fantasy gods.
  • Tier breaks: We start to see WRs with a few more holes in their profile after this point, so it's great to already have at least three players at the position. QB and TE also start to look quite a bit less elite in Round 6 and beyond.

Anthony Richardson has been one of my favorite players to draft all offseason, while it's hard to not be enamored with the upside scenarios from guys like George Kittle and Dalton Kincaid.

That said: Lordy will it be tough to pass up on Waddle or Nabers at this point in the draft. I would also throw Rashee Rice in the equation here even though his ADP will likely be listed a lot lower on your site. We're talking about three WRs who could be ranked inside the position's top 15 as early as Week 2; that's tough to complain about after 50-plus players are likely already off the board.

Round 6

  • General strategy: This is THE last chance to get something resembling an elite TE, otherwise I prefer the WR options available vs. RB and QB.
  • Favorite targets: Maybe this is finally the year Kyle Pitts reaches his sky-high upside? No worries if you're not a believer, guys like Zay Flowers, Tank Dell, Tee Higgins and George Pickens present plenty of upside at this cost.
  • Tier breaks: We'll probably hold off on QB and TE until Round 8 or so if not taking one by now.

The reason why we're drafting so many WRs early is that we largely want nothing to do with the sort of guys that will be available in the double-digit rounds. Meanwhile, that's exactly when some of fantasy's high-upside handcuff RBs come into play, making it more than reasonable to only have one or two RBs and four to five WRs strapped on the squad after this round.

OR, hey, Pitts is a perfectly fine pick at this draft cost. If not, feel free to wait multiple rounds to get one of Jake Ferguson, David Njoku or Dallas Goedert before the position really gets rough.

Round 7

  • General strategy: Getting a second or third RB here makes a helluva lot of sense.
  • Favorite targets: David Montgomery and James Conner are two of my very favorite RB picks at cost.
  • Tier breaks: This is as good a time as any to add another RB to the squad; after this round, we won't really have much of a chance to get anything resembling a bell-cow in a good offense.

You don't need to take an RB here if already equipped with two; just realize failure to have those starting spots filled after this round concludes means you'll be looking at RBs from the Steelers, Commanders, and Bengals as potential No. 2 options on your squad. I'm a fan of some of those guys — but I prefer them as RB3 options when possible due the uncertainty around their respective workloads.

There are still some solid WRs available — Pickens and Amari Cooper stand out — so rosters with two RBs, one QB, and one TE entering Round 7 should feel free to keep adding to that room. Generally, you should try to have AT LEAST three WRs on your squad by the time this round is complete, and four would be a lot cooler in leagues that require you to start three players at the position.

Round 8

  • General strategy: Now is the time to look long and hard at the QB and TE spots if you haven't filled them already, otherwise address whichever is weaker between RB and WR.
  • Favorite targets: Kyler Murray generally being available at this point is a crime against humanity.
  • Tier breaks: I'm inclined to wait for one of Jayden Daniels or Caleb Williams in Round 10 if unable to come away with Kyler.

There aren't any serious tier breaks going on at RB and WR; you still have quality options available at both that managers can use to fill any holes going on.

Still, it's QB and TE that are starting to become essential around this point. Guys like Njoku and Ferguson are candidates to go here, while a QB avalanche featuring the likes of Murray, Jordan Love and perhaps Dak Prescott is also a strong possibility. We still have backup options at both positions in case we miss out — you don't need to reach on anyone just yet — but now is the time to go ahead and swing on the onesies if you see one you like.

Round 9

  • General strategy: Evaluate your chances of getting your preferred QB or TE to fall back to you in Round 10 based on your opponents' roster construction, because the options there are about to be rather meh in a hurry.
  • Favorite targets: Jayden Daniels and Dallas Goedert are poor men's versions of Anthony Richardson and George Kittle as far as their respective prices are concerned.
  • Tier breaks: QB and TE are about to get ROUGH, while RBs you feel somewhat good about starting are also going to be quite a bit tougher to find in Rounds 10 and beyond.

Entering Round 9 with zero QBs or TEs is risky but not impossible to deal with. Still, you basically need to address those positions at this point if that's the case ASSUMING you still have guys like Daniels and Goedert on the board.

That said: Don't let your opponents dictate how you draft; build up strength at another spot if leaguemates are being reckless and presenting unforeseen value elsewhere.

I love drafting Diontae Johnson whenever possible, and he also constitutes a pretty great WR4-WR5 option for teams already set at QB and TE with two-to-three RBs also on the squad. Having at least four WRs by the time this round is over is advised; we're mostly dealing with lower-floor youngsters at the position after this point.

A similar sentiment is true at RB: Failure to have our RB2 by the time Round 10 rolls around makes it quite tough to feel good about that spot; you're going to be looking at mostly handcuffs from this point on.

Round 10

  • General strategy: Round out your starting spots (QB, RB, WR, TE) if not filled already.
  • Favorite targets: Caleb Williams joins Daniels as pretty much the cheapest QBs I'm willing to start. Same with Goedert at TE, but if set? Feel free to shoot for some upside with one of the Bengals RBs or potential stud rookie WRs in Xaiver Worthy and Rome Odunze.
  • Tier breaks: QB and TE starters are probably gone after this round, while the WR pickings also go from "Hell yeah" to "Meh" in a hurry.

After Round 10 my ideal roster construction will hopefully look like this:

  • 1 QB
  • 2-4 RB
  • 4-6 WR
  • 1 TE

It's fine to be a bit overweight on RB or WR; just realize failure to have at least two and four, respectively, puts you at a disadvantage moving forward based on the available options later.

Not having a QB or TE after 10 rounds doesn't necessarily mean you're screwed, but in that case you're probably in a position where you need multiple players at each position in order to still feel good about an upside scenario.

Round 11+

  • General strategy: Handcuff RBs with an upside young WR or two when appropriate
  • Favorite targets: See below list.
  • Tier breaks: We're looking at WR5+, RB4+, QB2s and TE2s at this point; it's hard to feel overly confident about anyone with an ADP outside the top-120 overall picks.

Later-round RBs are generally preferable to WRs because the former position is truly just one injury away from suddenly having the sort of volume to necessitate a starting role in fantasy land, while the latter position is far more difficult to predict when dealing with players usually slotted in as complementary options in their own passing game. It's not uncommon for me to have five WRs inside the top-seven or eight rounds before only taking one or two more the rest of the draft.

Some handcuff RBs to target in Rounds 11-plus:

Additionally, don't be afraid to spend some late-round draft capital on the following rookie WRs in Rounds 11-plus of your draft, as they regularly go quite a bit earlier in leagues with less casual audiences:

I'd also extend late-round dart recommendations to guys like Lions WR Jameson Williams (130.9), Bills WRs Curtis Samuel (149.3) and Khalil Shakir (158.2) as well as Saints WR Rashid Shaheed (151.6), who for one reason or another also seem to be a bit too cheap on traditional home sites like ESPN and Yahoo.

Of course, you might also have to take a DST or kicker during your final two rounds. I prefer to take more handcuff RBs if possible and simply cut them closer to Week 1, but some leagues force you to draft every position.

The following five DSTs are my favorite LATE-round options with an ESPN ADP outside of the top 160 picks, meaning they should be available in Rounds 14-15 in more drafts than not. In order or preference based on how good the group looks to be in real life and the ease of their early-season schedule:

  1. Las Vegas Raiders
  2. Los Angeles Chargers
  3. New York Giants
  4. Cincinnati Bengals
  5. Green Bay Packers

Feel free to lean on our Fantasy Life DST rankings for the top picks; better real-life units on good teams like the Chiefs and Texans deserve the nod over these streamers.

As for kickers: We're generally just trying to get someone from an offense expected to score a lot of points. The top-12 highest-projected scoring offenses per Vegas game totals this season are the: 49ers, Chiefs, Lions, Dolphins, Bills, Bengals, Ravens, Texans, Cowboys, Eagles, Packers and Rams. If you don't see any of their kickers available, go ahead and just draft whoever has the lowest ADP. Let's not overthink the most pointless position in all of football (just ask Larry David).