Maybe the messaging is the problem.
The exchange between Kevin Hart and Romany Malco in “The 40-Year-Old Virgin” is an exaggerated version of the analytics vs. film debate. Researchers attempt to articulate a new concept. Nuance gets lost in translation. New terms get added to our lexicon. But as the argument for their validity rages on, their meaning and how we can use them become just as vague as the original idea. To help, I decided to take a crack at it.
I’ve integrated a multitude of stats into my analysis over the years. I get them. I use them. However, this series will focus on why. Knowledge shouldn’t be a leap of faith. Data and its interpretation are for everyone. So, I’ll start simple. Let’s learn about air yards.
The Definition
I may or may not have picked this stat because it has the (relatively) simplest translation.
“Air Yards are the distance the ball travels from the line of scrimmage through the air to the target.”
Easy, right? But I’ll give you a couple of examples to hammer the idea home.
Joe Burrow threw his third TD to Tee Higgins in overtime to save their season. PayCor Stadium erupted. MVP chants drowned out the cheers. I had hope for my team (that only lasted about 16 hours). And all it took was for my QB to throw the ball three air yards.
Meanwhile, to-be Super Bowl MVP Jalen Hurts launched a dagger TD to DeVonta Smith in the second half. Any hopes of a three-peat evaporated with a 46-air-yard bomb.
But those are just two moments. We didn’t know they were going to happen. And yet, with a stronger grasp on air yards, you can see why those plays turned out the way they did.
Why Do Air Yards Matter?
Simply put, air yards are an opportunity stat.
I’ll get to the fantasy relevance in a bit, but think of air yards like turning a standard photo into a three-dimensional work of art. Snaps and dropbacks tell us a player was on the field. Targets and pass rates are a surrogate for talent. Combining two of those metrics produces a basic picture. Sure, we can use it. But the snapshot could use more detail. Accordingly, the nerds gave us a way to add more context.
Air yards (literally) add depth to our evaluations. For QBs, we get more than situational tendencies. Their aggression and intent start to come into focus. Where WRs win, either in the short area of the field or downfield, enter the frame. Or, put another way, we can quantify our subjectivity. I’ll elaborate.
Sorry, Cleveland fans, but let’s revisit your quarterback situation from last year. Deshaun Watson starts the year, and the offense is a disaster. The passing game didn’t look viable until Jameis Winston took over. It went from “dink and dunk” to “full throttle” in an instant. The descriptors might be off, but the vibes remained the same. In either case, you could measure the shift by looking at three numbers.
- Jameis Winston: 9.1 (air yards per attempt)
- Deshaun Watson: 7.2
- Dorian Thompson-Robinson: 6.1
Winston’s gunslinger mentality is both a gift and a curse to fantasy managers and defenses alike. His near two-yard gap in air yards per attempt brought WRs like Cedric Tillman into the fantasy limelight. At the same time, opposing coverage units became a worthy pickup. Regardless, it all came back to Winston’s ability to rack up air yards. And the fantasy points followed soon after. Luckily, the connection between air yards and scoring isn’t limited to one QB archetype.
If this is your first time seeing a correlation chart, let me break it down. It’s a quick way to see if two things have a direct impact on each other. The R2 number in the bottom right (i.e., the coefficient of determination) indicates how well the data fits together. The closer to 1, the better. So, how many air yards a QB gains has a strong relationship with their fantasy output. Unsurprisingly, pass-catchers (the beneficiaries of the air yards) need them, too.
I used just WRs to highlight two takeaways for pass-catchers. First, the adage “volume is king” still applies to air yards. Like targets, the more you earn, the more you produce (in theory). However, you’ll notice a weaker bond here (i.e., the R2 is lower). Does it mean air yards matter less for receivers? Not exactly.
Remember, air yards are how far the ball moves from the QB’s release to the receiver’s reception. But we all know players can make things happen afterward. Then, a combination of yards after the catch and air yards should have a greater tie. Coincidentally, if I add each player’s YAC to their air yards (as a quick check), the R2 jumps to 0.81. Plus, the link between air yards and fantasy scoring isn't limited to just one year.
Two quick notes from the above chart. First, an "n vs n+1" graph points to year-over-year stability. For instance, CeeDee Lamb's air yards went from 1,565 in 2022 to 1,722 the following year. Intuitively, this makes sense. If we agree that air yards are a measure of opportunity, then past performance should inform future outcomes. Second, air yards (like any stat) aren't the end-all, be-all, which is why the R2 drops to 0.47. Situations change, but talent typically wins out, giving us a way to predict the receivers we should roster even during the season.
Still, we’ve gone through all of this using data from past seasons. I’ve painted a broad picture with years of attempts and receptions when championships ride or die on weekly information. Don’t worry, though. Here’s how I weave air yards into my assessments as the season unfolds.
How Can You Use Air Yards?
For QBs, I’ll start with average dropbacks and their pass rate over expectation as a first cut. Signal-callers lacking in aerial attempts need a rushing element to their game to compensate. Anyway, air yards come into play when considering personnel and play-calling. You know, how those air yards get converted into actual production. If the receivers or scheme don't match the QB’s style, we’ve got a problem. Two NFC starters come to mind to emphasize why air yards can lead us to a reasonable conclusion.
Only 67 air yards separated Baker Mayfield and Brock Purdy by the end of the season. But any other stat would highlight the chasm between their 2024 campaigns. Both lost receivers throughout the year to catastrophic injuries. Their play-callers, while at different levels of experience, excel at their craft. And yet, Mayfield maintained his fantasy significance while Purdy’s waxed and waned. A look at their air yards on a per-attempt basis hints at why.
It should be no surprise that throwing farther invites volatility. Purdy was doing his best Jameis Winston impression at times, which impacted our expectations of Deebo Samuel. At the same time, Mayfield was letting Cade Otton and Bucky Irving do the heavy lifting. Accordingly, Purdy’s air yards per attempt settled as Christian McCaffrey returned (and spiked as soon as he left). Regardless, the outcome of weighing air yards remains the same.
We saw Anthony Richardson have more success launching the ball downfield and were right to question Josh Downs’s value with Richardson under center. The incongruency was there, and air yards helped frame the argument. But, to be clear, there are some positive ways to use the stat.
Ja’Marr Chase didn’t look like the eventual Triple Crown winner at the start of the year. He spent more time outside of the top 20 than in it for the first six weeks. But a quick look at his share of Burrow’s air yards held my confidence (despite the losses).
Our Utilization Report game logs told me all I needed to know (except for when the wins would come). During Chase’s slump from Weeks 6 to 9, he led the Bengals’ pass-catchers in air yards for half of them. He averaged 8.3 targets per game. I doubt anyone would’ve let him go, but the mismatch of high-end usage and low-end output opened a (tiny) window to make a deal for the WR1. And those who capitalized on the uncertainty (or the faithful who held onto him) were quickly rewarded.
Either way, we had our eye on Chase before the season started. We'd keep betting on him to turn things around until the end of the season. But here’s where air yards could help you find a starter off the wire.
Deebo Samuel's managers were likely throwing their phones in disgust. Anyone relying on McCaffrey probably thought anyone else scoring was par for the course. But Jauan Jennings’s fourth scamper into the paint was coming. San Francisco signaled his importance to the offense the week before.
Jennings had missed the past two games with a hip injury but returned after the 49ers’ bye. In that game, he led the pass-catchers in targets and air yards. Critically, it was the first contest with everyone healthy (except Brandon Aiyuk, who was on IR). And still, Jennings dominated. By combining the context of the personnel with usage, we could see his utility as a fringe starter for the remainder of the season.
