The Final QB Domino To Fall...

by Peter Overzet

3 weeks ago

In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Homage:

The Chicago Bears recently named rookie QB Caleb Williams their Week 1 starter.

The Washington Commanders quickly followed suit and gave Jayden Daniels the green light.

And yesterday the Broncos joined the rookie parade and named Bo Nix their Week 1 starter.

Sean Payton tried his hardest to pretend there was a QB battle between Nix, Jarrett Stidham, and—please control your laughter—Zach Wilson, but Nix’s preseason performances were simply too impressive to ignore.

Nix now becomes the first rookie QB to start for Denver since John Elway. No pressure, kid.

So with those three rookie QBs confirmed for Week 1 starts, J.J. McCarthy out for the year, and Michael Penix Jr. redshirting, that leaves us with only one more Round 1 rookie QB domino to fall…

Drake Maye.

The Patriots have been steadfast throughout the offseason about Jacoby Brissett starting Week 1, but cracks have started to emerge after preseason struggles.

The Patriots’ season opener is Sept. 8. I’d like to wager that between now and then New England capitulates and names Maye the starter. At which point, the youth movement can fully get underway across the league.

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What else is in today’s newsletter?

Ian’s Helium High: ADP Risers
Watercooler: Dennis Allen hates this RB

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ADP Risers: Buying or Selling the Helium Hype?

by Ian Hartitz

The Hall of Fame Game kicked off three weeks ago on Aug. 1. Since then injuries, training camp news and preseason performance have drastically altered average draft position (ADP) throughout the fantasy football industry.

But are the major changes warranted?

What follows is a breakdown of eight BIG ADP changes that have occurred since the beginning of August and whether or not fantasy football managers should chase the rising cost. I used FFPC Main Event ADP to get a better idea of what the sharps are actually doing. Note that this format features one-QB, rewards four points for passing TDs, full-PPR for RBs and WRs, and TE premium scoring (1.5 points per reception).

As always: It's a great day to be great.

Justin Fields Steelers QB1?

ADP movement: Pick 350 to 220.8

Russell Wilson has been in "pole position" for the starting QB job in Pittsburgh ever since March, but a training camp calf injury presented plenty of QB1 opportunities for Fields, who impressed enough with the extra reps to make at least one prominent beat reporter believe the ex-Bear will straight up earn the Week 1 starting gig.

While Russ remains the starter on the team's official unofficial depth chart, it certainly looks like the 35-year-old veteran isn't exactly dealing with the world's longest leash. This could open the door up for Fields sooner rather than later, something that would immediately make him a viable QB1 in fantasy football land.

Don't believe me? Consider: Only Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Joe Burrow have averaged more fantasy points per game than Fields over the past two seasons. We've seen far worse passers achieve similar heights in Fantasy Land before. Hell, OC Arthur Smith's last QB, Desmond Ridder, posted six top-12 finishes (!) last season despite, you know, sucking at football.

Verdict: The ADP rise is warranted given the fantasy upside if/when the starting job is obtained. Fields is a great late-round second QB addition on rosters that failed to get one of the position's top-12 options.

Potential cut candidate to featured RB1: The Javonte Williams Story

ADP movement: Pick 105 to 86

On July 20, the Denver Post's Troy Renck theorized that Williams and Samaje Perine could be battling for a final roster spot in the Broncos' backfield. The idea was that rookie Audric Estime and pint-sized spark plug Jaleel McLaughlin were locks, leaving just one spot remaining for the team's incumbent veterans.

Fast forward to the present day, and suddenly Williams looks like a safe bet to lead the Broncos in touches after posting solid first-team preseason usage and earning plenty of good reviews from head coach Sean Payton. Last season's performance was admittedly rough, but the rising fourth-year talent should find a bit more success an extra year removed from 2022's devastating knee injury—that's what the learned doctors are saying, anyways.

Nobody exactly expects the 2024 Broncos to vie for the league lead in scoring, but that was also the case last year, and it didn't stop the backfield from ranking fourth in expected PPR points per game thanks in large part to a league-high 144 targets to the position.

Verdict: Currently priced as the RB27 alongside fellow 1.A starters like Tony Pollard and Raheem Mostert, Williams' price feels right, even if I don't blame folks for not overly going out of their way to land the 24-year-old talent. He's my RB30 in half-PPR scoring.

More ADP Risers to Buy or Sell…