In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Winners Circle Proxy:
I don’t know what is going on in Minnesota, but it’s not good.
Everything out of Vikings camp has a Final Destination feel right now.
Yesterday brought us two gross pieces of injury news…
- J.J. McCarthy out for the year. The hope was that his torn meniscus just needed a trim, but the surgery revealed that a repair was necessary and he’ll now miss the entire season. This is brutal for McCarthy, but the Vikings offense will be in good hands with Sam Darnold. I’d say we don’t really need to make any fantasy adjustments, but that isn’t the only Minnesota injury we have to deal with…
- Jordan Addison suffers ankle injury. Addison hurt his ankle at practice after leaping for a contested ball. He was technically “carted off the field” but not before hobbling off the field with the help of his trainers. Similar to the Tyrone Tracy Jr. situation the other day, this is one we will just have to wait and see. Addison will undergo tests and there remains optimism that it isn’t as serious as it initially looked. If Addison were to miss a significant amount of time, Jalen Nailor would likely be the biggest beneficiary. Check out Dwain’s usage notes on him from Week 1 of the preseason.
I’ll be praying to the Norse gods and goddesses today, and I recommend you do the same…
Fantasy Life's 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit is LIVE (and free)! Click here to access all of the content you need to dominate your drafts.
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Dwain McFarland: Bold predictions
- Watercooler: A Mark Andrews scare
2024 Bold Predictions
🤯 Garrett Wilson finishes as the No. 1 WR
Wilson is a touchy subject for some after investing an early-round pick and getting a low-end WR3 in return. The downgrade from Aaron Rodgers to Zach Wilson was devastating. Wilson did his part, delivering an elite 30% target share and 46% air yards share, but the QB woes kept Garrett Wilson’s fantasy production in check.
His underlying data tells us he has a WR1 profile entering his prime at age 24; we just need more passing yards per game. Additionally, Wilson's target competition is low. Mike Williams, whose career-high target share is 19%, is coming off an ACL injury at age 30. Rookie Malachi Corley should get some action around the line of scrimmage as a yards-after-catch weapon but is a raw route runner.
The most significant risk with Wilson is Rodgers' health. When you watch Rodgers' film, he might not be what he was at age 28, but he can still make all the throws and his anticipation and timing are massive upgrades over Wilson. Even if Rodgers is 70% of his 2021 self, when he threw for 4,115 yards and 37 TDs, that will be 100,000,000% (OK, that is a slight exaggeration) better than the Jets QB situation last year.
Wilson checks ALL the boxes that lead to massive fantasy production—expect a similar leap to the one we saw from CeeDee Lamb last season. It's not too shabby for a player you can target at the end of Round 1 or early Round 2.
🤯 Kyler Murray finishes as a top-three QB
Bold predictions are all about natural resources. Which players have the right mix of untapped potential lurking below the surface that could result in an eruption?
At the QB position, rushing upside is the resource that can make fantasy boxscores boom. However, it's a rare trait that most don't have—especially when narrowing your search to QBs with 4,000-yard passing upside. However, one player stands out when surveying the QB landscape after the top six names: Kyler Murray.
Murray's injury history is a concern, but despite those challenges, Murray has provided an incredible floor per game: He has never finished outside of the top 12 since entering the league.
He also has a demonstrated ceiling. The former No. 1 NFL Draft pick finished as the QB3 with 24.9 points per game in 2020, with 822 rushing yards and 3,971 yards passing. Murray followed that up with 22.1 points per contest in 2021.
Now he's over a season removed from a 2022 ACL injury, and the Cardinals added Marvin Harrison Jr. in the draft. With Harrison joining budding superstar TE Trey McBride, Murray could push for 3,800 yards passing and 550 yards rushing. Since 2011, QBs who have reached those milestones have averaged 23.5 fantasy points with a QB2 finish.
Murray will challenge for a top-three finish in 2024 and is a consensus top-seven pick in the Fantasy Life rankings.
Related Content
- Dwain walks you through the perfect QB draft strategy for 2024.
- Looking for your 2024 league winners? He covered that, too.
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The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:
👀 The perks of a mid-round draft position? Controlling the board.
📅 LIVE at 9 AM ET: Late-round draft strategy for 2024.
🙏 A close call for Mark Andrews. Scary stuff.
📈 Good news for Jahymr Gibbs. I’d buy the dip.
📷️ Slo-mo Drake London catch? Here ya go.
🚑️ An update on the Hollywood Brown injury. Here’s the Chiefs’ plan.
🚨 ICYMI: Your complete guide to drafting between picks 1.05 and 1.08.
