When developing our QB draft strategy for fantasy football teams, there are three key factors to consider:

  1. Positional supply and demand: How many do I need, and how many are available? League scoring and starting roster requirements are enormous factors that many fantasy players don't consider.
     
  2. Value: Can I target mispriced assets that offer similar value at this position later? The more confidence we have in this answer, the more we can consider not spending early picks on the position. These players become pillars within our strategy.
     
  3. Draft capital allocation: How much have I spent on this position? As a rule of thumb, the more we spend earlier in drafts, the less we will invest later, and vice versa.

Using these simple concepts, along with our rankings hub—which considers your custom scoring and roster settings—we can create an adaptable framework for drafting.

Every fantasy season, our strategy can differ depending on where positions and players go in drafts. Fortunately, we can access average draft position (ADP) data from all the major sites to help identify the positions where we are most comfortable waiting and which we need to attack early.

Today, we will analyze the 2024 QB landscape with these factors in mind to unveil the perfect draft strategy for the QB position for fantasy football in 2024.

Supply and Demand at the QB Position

Most fantasy leagues only require one starting QB, drastically reducing the positional demand. That alone makes it a great position to consider waiting on in your draft. However, this strategy truly comes into focus once we consider the quality of QBs we can attack later in drafts.

Quarterback Values: Strategy Pillars

This season, there are three dual-threat QBs with high-end upside and a top-10 floor that go multiple rounds after Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson.

While we love specific player takes, having a type—or, more specifically, an archetype—is the key to identifying some of the best values in fantasy, and QBs with high rushing floors are where it is at.

Anthony Richardson | Colts

  • ESPN ADP: QB6, Pick 51
  • Sleeper ADP: QB6, Pick 54
  • Yahoo ADP: QB6, Pick 45

Richardson only played in two complete games as a rookie, but he registered a mouth-watering 25.3 PPG. He handled 26% of the designed rush attempts, including 34% of the work inside the five-yard line (with scrambles). Those marks put him in the same company as Jalen Hurts. It was a small sample, but Richardson was known for his rushing prowess at Florida.

He struggled as a passer with a 56.5 PFF pass grade, which was on par with Bryce Young and Daniel Jones. However, we saw something similar from Hurts as a rookie (55.4), and Indianapolis added a downfield threat in Adonai Mitchell in Round 2 of the NFL Draft.

Richardson's potential passing limitations show up in the Fantasy Life Projections at 220 yards per game. However, thanks to 39.5 yards per game on the ground, he projects as the QB6. It is also worth noting that based on regression, Richardson only projects for 6.3 rushing TDs, but he had four last season.

By this time next season, there is a good chance we will be discussing Richardson in the same breath as Hurts and Lamar Jackson.

Kyler Murray | Cardinals

  • ESPN ADP: QB10, Pick 92
  • Sleeper ADP: QB8, Pick 71
  • Yahoo ADP: QB8, Pick 59

Murray demonstrated his sky-high ceiling in 2020 and 2021 with 24.9 and 22.1 PPG. Last year, he scored 18.7 while only averaging 225 yards through the air. Murray made up for it with 30.5 yards per game rushing despite coming off of a late-season 2022 ACL injury.

With the breakout of Trey McBride and the arrival of Marvin Harrison Jr. via the No. 4 pick in the NFL draft, the Cardinals suddenly have a formidable receiving tandem. Murray flashed a big passing-game ceiling in 2021 with 271 yards per game.

Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray (1) throws the ball during training camp at State Farm Stadium in Glendale on July 28, 2024.

I have Murray projected conservatively for 234 passing and 30 rushing yards per game. Since 2011, signal callers who have reached those marks have averaged 21.3 PPG and an average finish of QB6.

From a PPG perspective, Murray is a LOCK for a top-12 finish and is one of the few QB options with the upside to throw for 4,500 yards and rush for 600. That type of performance would make him a candidate for QB1 overall.

Jayden Daniels | Commanders

Daniels posted a 14% scramble rate and averaged 17% of the designed rushing attempts in college — both great signs for future rushing production. He averaged 90 yards rushing per game in his final two seasons at LSU.

He didn't mature into a prolific passer until later in his career but arrived in a big way, averaging 318 yards and 3.3 TDs at LSU. The Fantasy Life projections assume Daniels will struggle in year one as a passer (under 3,500 yards) due to surrounding cast and scheme questions. Jahan Dotson has been a bust, but the Commanders drafted Ben Sinnott and Luke McCaffrey to challenge for targets behind Terry McLaurin.

Still, he could push for 700-plus rushing yards on 120-ish totes and projects as the QB7. Since 2011, we have had 21 instances of a QB recording 100 or more rushing attempts while passing for fewer than 3,500 yards. That group delivered 20.3 PPG with an average finish of QB8. Only three failed to secure a top-12 finish.

Daniels could challenge the other dual-threat elites in Tier 1 if he defies our projections in the passing game. Based on his profile and price, Daniels is my top quarterback target in 2024.

QB Strategy Walkthrough – Early, Middle and Late Rounds

While Richardson, Murray and Daniels are the primary QB targets, there are certainly times when we should be willing to deviate. Below is a quick guide on how to handle each section of the draft, from early to late-round picks.

Rounds 1 to 3

I am fading all QBs in this range across every major platform *at these prices*. As much as I love Josh Allen, there isn't any reason to pay his price on Sleeper (20.9) or Yahoo (23.5).

Even if you want to go QB early, Jalen Hurts – my QB1 overall – is the better option almost a round later. Additionally, the opportunity costs are high. Allen goes in the same range as premium WRs.

Rounds 4 to 7

Allen, Hurts, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson are all fair game starting in Round 4. Opportunity costs are more reasonable, and a proven elite QB paired with an already strong first three picks can win. Taking a falling elite QB is preferable to some RBs in this range, like Alvin Kamara.

However, be careful if you play in leagues that start more than two WRs or have multiple flex positions—those dynamics change the supply and demand, making taking an elite QB less desirable, even past ADP.

Fortunately, we have designed tools for these scenarios. You can enter your league settings using our rankings tools for a customized cheat sheet. For example, Jalen Hurts moves from No. 50 to No. 68 in a 12-team PPR league when you increase flex players from one to three.

Use code QB10 to get 10% off any FantasyLife+ package.

After the top four QBs are gone, here are the names you are most likely to see in your draft queue with their current ADPs for ESPN, Sleeper and Yahoo:

Fading at ADP

C.J. Stroud is great but overpriced compared to other pocket passers in high-end offenses and ascending talents. Stroud isn't a target unless he falls past ADP, or you are all in on a Texans team stack with two Houston WRs already on your team.

Strategy Pillars

Thanks to his dual-threat sweetness, Richardson is the QB to target in this range but don't reach, especially on Yahoo, where drafters push QBs up the board and leave you with value at other positions. If we miss out on Richardson, we still have Murray and Daniels waiting in the wings.

Murray is an absolute steal on ESPN, but his price tag on Yahoo makes him a tougher selection, knowing Daniels goes at pick 111.

Strategy Pillar – Honorable Mention

Joe Burrow delivered 20.6, 22.7 and 15.5 PPG over the last three years, but his 2023 marks come with an injury asterisk. He played with a calf injury the first four weeks, limiting him to 8.8 PPG. However, Burrow found his groove from Week 5 through Week 11, with 22.2 PPG. We are likely getting a 20-plus PPG QB at a significant discount.

Rounds 8+

If you don't have a QB heading into Round 8, look alive, people. We still have some high-upside candidates, including our last strategy pillar in Daniels.

Before we dive into this group, you have probably noticed some trends.

  • QBs go early on Yahoo.
  • QBs go late on ESPN.

Knowing this is helpful as you formulate your draft strategy. However, be ready to pivot as your draft unfolds. Sometimes, your league mates will depend on the platform's rankings, but that isn't always the case. Take note if your peers use other sources for their rankings and cheatsheets.

Strategy Pillar

If you don't have your QB by Round 9, you should feel good about your other positions. It is time to grab Daniels, whose profile gives us an excellent chance to offset the advantage early QB drafters hope to have versus our rosters.

Don't be shy. It is okay to reach. 

Looking at the teams that will draft between you and your next pick is smart. If they all have QBs, then *maybe* you can let Daniels go by once more if there is an insane value. But if those teams still need a QB, take Daniels. Don't get too cute in this situation.

Strategy Pillar – Honorable Mention

Jordan Love delivered an impressive 19.6 PPG in his first full season as the Packers starter and looked phenomenal down the stretch.

With multiple young weapons surrounding him, Love offers similar upside to Stroud but at a lower cost.

Backup Plans

If you miss out on the strategy pillars, here are some bail-out options.

Caleb Williams doesn't offer the same rushing upside as Richardson, Murray and Daniels, but he did post a 13% designed rush share in college – double the NCAA average. The No. 1 overall pick has plenty of weapons with DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze.

Heading into the season with Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff or Kirk Cousins isn't my preferred strategy, but they all offer low-end QB1 upside. Lawrence provides additional value as a runner and has a solid group of weapons. Tagovailoa could lead the league in passing, and if he ever runs hot in the TD department, he will crack the top six.

Deshaun Watson and Justin Fields are the sleepers to target if you are looking for upside late in drafts.

Quarterback Draft Capital Guidelines
 

  • If you secured a QB1 by Jayden Daniels in Round 9 or 10, you should rarely draft another. There are exceptions, like late picks in 20-round drafts or if you can trade the QB for something worth more than what is available. However, you must know your league mates; making exceptions is an easy way to damage your team – especially in the early and middle rounds.
     
  • If you secured your QB1 after Jayden Daniels, it is optional to draft another QB. The longer you wait after Daniels, the more you should consider deploying a strength-in-numbers strategy, but don't go overboard. Consider mixing a proven veteran pocket passer like Cousins with an upside rushing option like Fields.
     
  • Note: If you are playing in a best ball or Superflex format, these rules don't apply. The QBs will go earlier in drafts, and you must have at least two or sometimes more. Be sure to check out our Superflex settings in the rankings tools.