When developing our strategy for drafting fantasy football teams, there are three key factors to consider:
- Positional supply and demand: How many do I need, and how many are available? League scoring and starting roster requirements are enormous factors that many fantasy players don't consider.
- Value: Can I target mispriced assets that offer similar value at this position later? The more confidence we have in this answer, the more we can consider not spending early picks on the position. These players become pillars within our strategy.
- Draft capital allocation: How much have I spent on this position? As a rule of thumb, the more we spend earlier in drafts, the less we will invest later and vice versa.
Using these simple concepts, along with our fantasy football rankings—which consider your custom scoring and roster settings—we can create an adaptable framework for drafting.
Every fantasy season, our strategy can differ depending on where positions and players go in drafts. Fortunately, we can access fantasy football ADP) data from all the major sites to help identify the positions where we are most comfortable waiting and which we need to attack early.
So far, we have outlined the perfect strategy for QB and WR. Today, we will analyze the TE landscape to unveil the optimal draft strategy for the position in 2024.
Tight End Supply and Demand
Starting lineup requirements
Most fantasy leagues only require one starting TE, which immediately places less demand on the position. However, unlike the other onesie position at QB, we don't have a cheat code, such as underpriced dual-threat options (i.e., Jayden Daniels) to fall back on. If you want a difference-maker at TE, they must be target earners, and those don't grow on trees.
Talent: The limiting supply factor
Any RB can enter an NFL starting lineup and provide some sort of fantasy production because most of their points come from being handed the football while nine other players block. At TE, additional skill-based steps must occur BEFORE the player can score fantasy points.
- Beat their defender(s) to get open
- Get to the right place at the right time based on coverage
- Catch the ball
Playing time is huge at TE, but it doesn't unlock fantasy points alone. Targets are the lifeblood of fantasy points, and targets are talent-driven. So, while the demand for TEs isn't high based on most fantasy league roster requirements, there are only so many talented enough to become fantasy difference-makers.
The good news is that the influx of youth at the position (i.e., Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride and Dalton Kincaid) has created more depth in the top tiers. This depth creates flexibility in how early we should attack the position in 2024.
Tight End Values: Strategy Pillars
Below is an outline of TEs priced too low in different ranges of fantasy drafts.
Rounds 1 to 3
I am not taking a TE in the first three rounds of fantasy drafts in 2024. It isn't because I don't like Sam LaPorta or Travis Kelce – I love those players – but there are too many other guys I like that go later.
Based on all the factors driving fantasy performance, those two shouldn't be going 20 to 40 picks ahead of players in Rounds 4 to 6. I prefer my builds when I attack RB and WR over the first three rounds and target value at TE.
Caveat: If LaPorta or Kelce fall to Round 4, they are an auto pick.
Rounds 4 to 6
Trey McBride | Cardinals
- ESPN ADP: 54
- Sleeper ADP: 47
- Yahoo ADP: 49
McBride took over the starting TE role in Week 8 and never looked back. Over that stretch, the former Round 2 draft pick averaged 14.9 points per game. His underlying numbers were just as impressive.
- Targets: 29%
- Air yards: 26%
- YPRR: 2.09
The arrival of Marvin Harrison Jr. via the NFL Draft adds target competition, but the rest of the Cardinals roster lacks target-earning challengers. McBride comes with some small-sample risk, but his demonstrated upside rivals LaPorta.
McBride is a priority target in the mid-rounds of fantasy drafts.
Mark Andrews | Ravens
- ESPN ADP: 45
- Sleeper ADP: 48
- Yahoo ADP: 48
Andrews delivered 17.5, 12.6 and 13.5 PPG in the last three years, giving him two top-three-worthy seasons. Last season marked his lowest target share (21%) since his rookie campaign. Zay Flowers led the team with a 24% target share, but they were nearly dead even on the field together.
- Andrews: 25% targets
- Flowers: 24% targets
Lamar Jackson threw for 230 yards per game last season in the team's first season under Todd Monken, but game scripts were wildly in Baltimore's favor. The Ravens led by four-plus points on 49% of snaps. However, their dropback rate over expectation (DBOE) was 1.5%. If we get more competitive scripts, this offense offers upside in the passing department.
Andrews has proven TE1 overall upside on his resume and is a top-two target on one of the better offenses in the league – he is a priority target.
Dalton Kincaid | Bills
- ESPN ADP: 62
- Sleeper ADP: 51
- Yahoo ADP: 60
Kincaid demonstrated a high-end TE1 upside, averaging 14.4 PPG in games without Dawson Knox last season. In those games, he boasted an 81% route participation and 21% target share.
The question is whether Knox continues eating into Kincaid's playing time. From Week 14 through the playoffs with Knox back, Kincaid's route participation dipped to 73%, and his target share fell to 18%. That had a direct impact on fantasy points (8.9 PPG).
The Knox factor pushes Kincaid below McBride and Andrews in my order of preference, but let's not bury the lede here. Stefon Diggs is gone, and the Bills don't have any other alpha target earners on their roster – leaving the door open for their 2023 first-round TE to expand his role in a Josh Allen-led offense.
Kincaid has a lower floor than McBride or Andrews, but he is priced accordingly, and his ceiling is just as high.
Honorable Mention
Kyle Pitts | Falcons
- ESPN ADP: 70
- Sleeper ADP: 59
- Yahoo ADP: 64
You have been disappointed if you have bought into the Pitts hype in previous years. But hear me out: His underlying targets and air yards share tell us he has high-end TE1 upside. The more significant challenge has been injuries and atrocious QB play.
Atlanta averaged 183 yards per game passing over the last three years (fifth-worst). Enter Kirk Cousins, who averaged 270 passing yards the previous three seasons. Additionally, Arthur Smith is gone, and Zac Robinson takes over as OC, bringing Sean McVay's cheat codes.
It is hard to run much better, and I project a 70-yard-per-game. No one saw less catchable targets last season at TE. Pitts now has a QB with the accuracy to take advantage of his unique ability.
Pitts is a target at or after ADP, but I don't want to pass on Malik Nabers or Rashee Rice to force him onto my team.
Rounds 7 to 9
I strongly prefer to have one of the TEs from the above group on my roster by Round 7. However, I don't want to punt on the position if that doesn't work out. Things get really gross around TE13 this year, and I don't have a sleeper for you like last season with LaPorta.
Jake Ferguson, David Njoku and Brock Bowers all go in this range of drafts. Of the three, Njoku and Bowers are the cheapest on most sites, making them my primary targets. For more insights on each player – check out my TE tiers.
If you miss on all of those players, the break-glass-in-case-of-emergency backup plan is Dallas Goedert. Goedert is the most underpriced TE in Fantasyland this season.
Tight End Draft Capital & Strategy Guidelines
Knowing where the value pockets are for TEs in drafts, we can now set some guidelines for our draft strategy.
Note: If you play on a platform other than ESPN, Sleeper or Yahoo, you will want to check their ADPs and make the necessary adjustments.
Round-by-Round Guidelines
- Rounds 1 to 3: Fade TE
- Rounds 4 to 6: Target one of McBride, Andrews, Kincaid or Pitts
- Rounds 7 to 9: Don't draft another TE if you have one already; target one of Ferguson, Njoku or Bowers; Goedert is the fallback plan
Additional Notes
- Only roster one TE if you took one in the first six rounds.
- Only roster one TE if you took one in the first nine rounds, but there is one caveat: you can pair two of Ferguson, Njoku, Bowers and Goedert if you get the second one at a severe discount (I never plan on doing this).
- In 2 RB, 2 WR and 1 Flex leagues, I typically target my TE in Rounds 4 to 6 and go after a QB in Rounds 7 to 9 – I don't want to be vulnerable at both positions.
- In 2 RB, 3 WR and 1 Flex leagues, I am more willing to wait for my TE and QB in Rounds 7 to 9 because if I like the value at WR in Rounds 4 to 6 because they will be in my lineup.
General Strategy Tips
- Monitor how your draft is going compared to the ADPs on which your strategy was created. If your league mates use sources other than the rankings and draft queue for the site, they could draft very differently.
- Pay attention to your opponents' needs between your pick and your following selection. For example, if it is Round 7 and they all have a QB, then you can take a calculated risk to pass on the QB to take another position, knowing they shouldn't draft two. One caveat to this rule: if the players behind you don't know what they are doing or are new to fantasy, don't assume they won't take the QB – they just don't know better.
- Pay attention to the names at the top of the draft queue by position. If there is a player you want and their name is near the top of the list in the draft room, don't be afraid to reach. When players are on the clock and unsure who to take, they often default to names at the top of the queue.
