When developing our strategy for drafting fantasy football teams, there are three key factors to consider:

  1. Positional supply and demand: How many do I need, and how many are available? League scoring and starting roster requirements are enormous factors that many fantasy players don't consider.
  2. Value: Can I target mispriced assets that offer similar value at this position later? The more confidence we have in this answer, the more we can consider not spending early picks on the position. These players become pillars within our strategy.
  3. Draft capital allocation: How much have I spent on this position? As a rule of thumb, the more we spend earlier in drafts, the less we will invest later and vice versa.

Using these simple concepts, along with our rankings hub — which considers your custom scoring and roster settings — we can create an adaptable framework for drafting.

Every fantasy season, our strategy can differ depending on where positions and players go in drafts. Fortunately, we can access average draft position (ADP) data from all the major sites to help identify the positions where we are most comfortable waiting and which we need to attack early.

Today, we will analyze the 2024 WR landscape with these factors in mind to unveil the optimal draft strategy for the position in 2024.

Wide Receiver Supply and Demand

Starting lineup requirements

Most fantasy leagues require you to start two to three starting WRs and a flex position. That means in a 12-team league with three starting WRs, there will be 36 starters, and roughly half of the flex spots should be filled by WRs, totaling 42 starters.

Talent: The limiting supply factor

Immediately, we have a high demand for the WR position based on roster settings, but that is only half of the equation. The other factor is supply, and while it may seem like WR options are infinite because most NFL teams utilize three in their base offense, the supply is quite limited. 

Any RB can enter a starting lineup and provide some sort of fantasy production because most of their points come from being handed the football while nine other players block. At WR, additional skill-based steps must occur BEFORE the player can score fantasy points.

  • Beat their defender(s) to get open
  • Get to the right place at the right time based on coverage
  • Catch the ball

Playing time alone doesn't unlock WR fantasy points. Targets are the lifeblood of fantasy points, and targets are talent-driven. This fact burdens supply — only so many WRs meet the job requirements. In sharp fantasy leagues, if all the managers knew this, it would be almost impossible to find WRs on the waiver wire outside of some early-season outliers because, for the most part, we know who the good players are.

Strategy bonus: because backup RBs suddenly in a starting role are more likely to produce fantasy points than backup WRs entering the lineup, we can build SUPER TEAMS by cornering the market at WR and aggressively attacking the waiver wire at RB.

Wide Receiver Historical Scoring

The excellent news for talented WRs is that they don't have to deal with the nasty rotations that coaches talk themselves into at the RB position. The best WRs are mainly on the field unless they play in a hyper-crowded offense with multiple superstars. 

When you pair this with lower injury rates than the RB position, WRs historically make up a larger percentage of top fantasy scorers in PPR and half-PPR leagues after the top 12 — making them stronger bets as flex options.

By now, you are probably thinking — wow, I need to prioritize WRs in my draft — and you are correct. But to craft the perfect draft strategy we must still account for average draft position (ADP) to determine where the value pockets are at the position and how that might impact our plan.

Wide Receiver Values: Strategy Pillars

Below is an outline of WRs priced too low in different ranges of fantasy drafts. While drafters should prioritize the position based on the facts we just discussed, in reality, that isn't happening enough, creating several value pockets we can leverage.

Rounds 1 to 3

Garrett Wilson | Jets

  • ESPN ADP: 16
  • Sleeper ADP: 13
  • Yahoo ADP: 13

Wilson did his part in 2023, delivering an elite 30% target share and 46% air yards share, but the QB woes kept his fantasy production in check. The third-year WR checks ALL the boxes that lead to massive fantasy production — expect a similar leap to the one we saw from CeeDee Lamb last season. I prefer Wilson over most of the RB options in early Round 2.

Drake London | Falcons

  • ESPN ADP: 37
  • Sleeper ADP: 18
  • Yahoo ADP: 29

London has been a WR4 over his first two seasons, averaging 10.7 points per game (PPG), holding his draft stock down. However, his 25% career target share tells us that WR1 upside lurks beneath the surface for this third-year breakout candidate. I have the Falcons projected for a 70-plus yard per game improvement with the arrival of Kirk Cousins and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson. That has been a very profitable recipe for WRs in their prime.

  • Eric Decker (2012): 9.6 to 16.8 PPG (+7.3)
  • T.Y. Hilton (2018): 11.1 to 17.1 PPG (+6.0)
  • Davante Adams (2018): 15.9 to 21.8 (+5.9)
  • Stefon Diggs (2020): 14.6 to 20.5 (+6.0)

London is a consensus top-17 pick amongst the Fantasy Life rankers. 

London is a PRIORITY target in Round 3 of drafts.

Draft Application: The availability of London in Round 3 of ESPN and Yahoo drafts makes taking an elite RB from the early position possible in Round 1. You can take Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson or Breece Hall and come back with back-to-back WR selections, with London as your third-round target.

Nico Collins | Texans

  • ESPN ADP: 38
  • Sleeper ADP: 28
  • Yahoo ADP: 35

Collins exploded for 17.2 PPG last season. He was equally good in games when Tank Dell saw an 80% route participation or better, scoring 17.1 PPG. The challenge is the arrival of Stefon Diggs, who still earned a 30% target share in 2023.

Still, Collins plays with an ascending young QB (C.J. Stroud) and a red-hot coordinator (Bobby Slowik). That keeps his ceiling sky high despite unknowns about pecking order. There is a possibility that an aging Diggs can't keep Collins off the field.

Collins is a mid-Round 2 selection in half-PPR best ball drafts — well ahead of his ADPs on ESPN, Sleeper and Yahoo.

Honorable Mention: Chris Olave (Round 3)

Fades: Davante Adams (Round 2)

Rounds 4 to 7

Jaylen Waddle | Dolphins

  • ESPN ADP: 54
  • Sleeper ADP: 33 
  • Yahoo ADP: 40

Waddle delivered high-end WR2 finishes in his first two seasons (15.5 and 15.4 PPG) and reached 15.6 in games he played over 60% of pass plays last season. This man would be a WR1 on many teams. We shouldn't be able to draft a borderline WR1 in their prime in Rounds 4 and 5. Sometimes, the universe gives us unexplainable gifts. We don't need to question why. We just need to accept them and say thank you.

Malik Nabers | Giants

  • ESPN ADP: 64
  • Sleeper ADP: 40
  • Yahoo ADP: 69

The data has been particularly good for guys in the top-six picks of the NFL Draft, like Nabers. Since 2011, eight rookies have gone inside the top six. Those who played at least 12 games averaged 14.4 PPG with an average finish of WR21.

  • Ja'Marr Chase: 18.0 PPG
  • Julio Jones: 15.7 PPG
  • Jaylen Waddle: 15.5 PPG
  • A.J. Green: 14.5 PPG
  • Amari Cooper: 13.4 PPG
  • Sammy Watkins: 12.4 PPG
  • Justin Blackmon: 11.4 PPG

We get to draft Nabers as a mid-to-high-end WR3 on ESPN and Yahoo, which would have paid off in five out of seven instances above. That is a swing I want to make despite my lack of excitement for a Daniel Jones-led attack.

Nabers a PRIORITY target in Round 5 of drafts.

Draft Application: The availability of Nabers in Round 5 allows you to target him as your third WR or starting flex option. That means in the first four rounds, you have two other picks freed up to attack RB, TE or QB — and you can still feel fantastic about your WR corps. If you read my QB strategy, you know there is value later, which means you could have a build like one of these going through five rounds:

Tank Dell | Texans

  • ESPN ADP: 69
  • Sleeper ADP: 53
  • Yahoo ADP: 65

Most people are afraid of uncertainty, and how the WR playing time will divide in Houston has drafters skittish. However, what isn't in question is Dell's talent profile. He averaged 18.9 PPG in eight contests with at least a 50% route participation rate as a rookie. During those games, he registered a 24% target share and 34% air yards share, WR2-worthy and WR1-worthy marks.

We shouldn't be afraid of talented young players in crowded offenses when paired with an ascending young QB (C.J. Stroud) and a rising play-caller (Bobby Slowik). That is the same formula we have in San Francisco, but all of their pass catchers are gone by this point in fantasy drafts. Dell is in the top 50 of the Fantasy Life consensus ranks.

Honorable Mentions: DeVonta Smith (Round 4), Zay Flowers (Round 6), George Pickens if Brandon Aiyuk trade doesn't happen (Round 7)

Rounds 8 to 10

Rashee Rice | Chiefs

  • ESPN ADP: 98
  • Sleeper ADP: 84
  • Yahoo ADP: 97

Rice averaged 16.6 points per game with a 25% target share after taking over a full-time role from Week 14 through the Super Bowl. The second-year WR would be a Round 3 pick if there weren't the potential for a suspension. He could miss zero to six-plus games in 2024, depending on how it plays out — but the closer we get to the season, the more it looks like his legal team will get this thing pushed to 2024.

I have Rice inside my top 65 players — far ahead of where he is going in drafts. How often do you get to draft a potential WR1 that late?

Rice is a PRIORITY target as early as Round 6, depending on how quickly WRs are going and your build.

Draft Application: Rice can fit any build, but if you go with a heavy RB approach early based on falling value, he still offers the upside of providing you with an alpha WR room. Here is an example build:

Diontae Johnson | Panthers

  • ESPN ADP: 103
  • Sleeper ADP: 92
  • Yahoo ADP: 98

I am a sucker for target earners, and Johnson has reached 23% or higher in each of the last four seasons, per our advanced stats tools that remove games missed.

We need Bryce Young to take a step forward to unlock Johson's upside, which is baked into these low prices. Johnson has never played with a high-end quarterback (Ben Roethlisberger was fading by then), and he still has a WR8 overall finish on his resume. The man is good at his job and offers WR2 upside should Young even develop into an average NFL player.

Rome Odunze | Bears

  • ESPN ADP: 123
  • Sleeper ADP: 70
  • Yahoo ADP: 101

Odunze might not get the playing time we crave early in the season, but historically rookie WRs to go inside the top 10 in the NFL Draft find a way to make an impact. This cheat code has evaporated in best ball and high-stakes drafts, but we can still get Odunze ~75 picks after Marvin Harrison Jr. is off the board — the gap shouldn't be that large.

Be prepared to keep the rookie on your bench early, but if you are looking for upside in the later rounds, Odunze is a high-priority target. By the time we play for fantasy championships, he might churn out WR2 performances.

Honorable Mentions: Jayden Reed, Xavier Worthy, Christian Watson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Rounds 11+

Attack the high-end rookies with your picks in this range if you still need WR help.

Brian Thomas Jr. | Jaguars

Xavier Worthy (28th), Ladd McConkey (34th) and Keon Coleman (33rd) were all selected after Brian Thomas Jr. (23rd) in the NFL Draft. Yet, Thomas is the last one taken in fantasy drafts on ESPN and Yahoo.

While he was never a high-end target earner playing alongside Nabers, Thomas offers a rare combination of size and speed (6-foot-3 with a 4.33 40-yard dash) that is hard to ignore in a Round 1 talent. The Jaguars already have a solid receiving corps with Christian Kirk, Evan Engram and Gabe Davis, but none of those players are target hogs. That leaves the door open for Thomas to carve out significant targets in Year 1.

Keon Coleman | Bills

  • ESPN ADP: 121
  • Sleeper ADP: 98
  • Yahoo ADP: 126

Coleman never became an elite target earner, but he still posted strong marks, with a 25% target rate against man and 23% versus zone in college. Scouts have concerns about his ability to separate at the NFL level, and his adjusted contested-target rate echoed those worries at six percentage points over expected. While his profile has warts, we can't deny his opportunity in Buffalo on a wide-open depth chart.

Ladd McConkey | Chargers

  • ESPN ADP: 124
  • Sleeper ADP: 86
  • Yahoo ADP: 121

McConkey played inside and outside (69%) at Georgia and attacked every field depth. He was above average against man coverage (23% target rate) and was lethal against zone (25%). Under Jim Harbaugh, the Chargers will be a run-oriented offense, but there is little target competition.

Honorable Mentions: Curtis Samuel, Rashid Shaheed, Khalil Shakir, Josh Palmer

Wide Receiver Draft Capital & Strategy Guidelines

Knowing where the value pockets are at WR in drafts, we can now set some guidelines for our draft strategy.

Note: If you play on a platform other than ESPN, Sleeper or Yahoo, you will want to check their ADPs and make the necessary adjustments.

Two WR + Flex Leagues

Round-by-Round Guidelines

  • Rounds 1 to 3: Minimum of one WR and a maximum of two rostered
  • Rounds 4 to 7: Minimum of two WRs and a maximum of four rostered
  • Rounds 8 to 10: Minimum of four WRs and a maximum of five rostered
  • Rounds 11-plus: Minimum of five WRs and a maximum of seven rostered

Additional Notes

  • Remember, if you take fewer WRs early — let's say you have the minimum of two after seven rounds — attack the position more heavily in the following rounds and consider rostering as many as seven since your other positions should be strong.
  • Based on the ADPs on these sites, there is more value in Rounds 10 to 11 at WR than RB, thanks to the rookies, so keep that in mind when considering how you want to spend your late-round picks.

Three WR + Flex Leagues

Round-by-Round Guidelines

  • Rounds 1 to 3: Minimum of two WRs and a maximum of three rostered
  • Rounds 4 to 7: Minimum of three WRs and a maximum of five rostered
  • Rounds 8 to 10: Minimum of five WRs and a maximum of seven rostered
  • Rounds 11-plus: Minimum of six WRs and a maximum of eight rostered

Additional Notes

  • If you take three WRs in the first three rounds, you can grab one more in for your flex in the next four rounds, but at least attack two other positions. While having a strong WR corps in three-WR leagues is a cheat code, we want to avoid massive weaknesses across all other positions.
  • If you only take one WR in the first three rounds, loading up in rounds four through seven — especially the strategy pillars outlined above – should be a priority. Also, feel free to reach for Rashee Rice — he is your ace in the hole in this type of build.
  • If you only have three WRs heading into Round 8, you likely have two good RBs, an elite QB and an elite TE. Now is the time to fire everything you have at the WR position, and don't be afraid to draft multiple rookie strategy pillar options in the late rounds.

General Strategy Tips

  • Monitor how your draft is going compared to the ADPs on which your strategy was created. If your league mates use sources other than the rankings and draft queue for the site, they could draft very differently. If they are hip to the fact that WRs should go earlier in three-WR leagues, be prepared to push toward the aggressive ranges listed in the round-by-round guidelines.
  • Pay attention to your opponents' needs between your pick and your following selection. For example, if it is Round 7 and they all have a QB, then you can take a calculated risk to pass on the QB to take another position, knowing they shouldn't draft two. One caveat to this rule: If the players behind you don't know what they are doing or are new to fantasy, don't assume they won't take the QB — they just don't know better. 
  • Pay attention to the names at the top of the draft queue by position. If there is a player you want and their name is near the top of the list in the draft room, don't be afraid to reach. When players are on the clock and unsure who to take, they often default to names at the top of the queue.