In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Experian:
The first round of 2024 fantasy drafts has felt cursed through two weeks.
Outside of Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson, it’s been a pretty rough start for the Top 12 players by ADP.
But maybe tonight we get redemption for one of them?
Jets WR Garrett Wilson is currently the WR37 on the season after not clearing 10 fantasy points (Half PPR) in either of his first two games.
The fact that he’s not injured like a bunch of the other Round 1 players is a feather in his cap, but there’s room for optimism beyond health.
As Dwain noted in his Utilization Report, his usage (100% route participation and 30% target share) points to some explosion games in the near future.
Tonight, Wilson gets a date with a Patriots defense that just got shredded by both DK Metcalf (10-129-1) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (12-117).
Three of our rankers have him as a Top 8 WR play this week, so you can start him with confidence and/or send out a few lowball offers before kickoff.
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Dwain’s Week 3 Rankings: Players set to smash
- Watercooler: Injury updates
Week 3 Rankings Risers & Fallers
by Dwain McFarland
Rankings Risers for Week 3
Zack Moss | RB | Bengals
Okay, you will notice several Bengals in the risers section, but I don't get to decide who plays the Commanders, so forgive me. We will get to the matchup in a second, but the biggest reason for Moss's ascension up the ranks is this: He is the clear-cut No. 1 back in Cincinnati.
Moss has reached a 65% or higher snap rate in each of his first two games and now has a 6.7 Utilization Score. Historically, backs in that range have averaged 12.2 points, making Moss a prime regression candidate in Week 3.
I expect the veteran back to punch in at least one score this weekend thanks to his domination of short-yardage snaps (SDD) and work inside the five-yard line paired with the Bengals league-leading team total of 28.9. Washington's defense has been a turnstile against the pass, but they have also sanctioned 121 per game on the ground.
Moss UPGRADES to mid-range RB2 status and offers RB1 upside (aka SMASH PLAY).
Zamir White | RB | Raiders
I have not been a Zamir White supporter, but the Raiders RB1 has three significant factors working in his favor:
White surged to a 65% snap share and 53% route participation to fuel a decent 6.3 Utilization Score (RB3-worthy) in Week 2.
The Raiders passing attack ranks fourth in the NFL with 267 yards per contest. That could force defenses to prioritize stopping Davante Adams and Brock Bowers.
Las Vegas is a six-point favorite against a Panthers defense that allows 200 yards per game on the ground.
Whether I like the player or not, he must move up in the ranks after hitting the trifecta across utilization, environment quality, and matchup.
White has averaged 61% of the team's rushing attempts, which might translate to more than 15 attempts in this game script. Tack on two to three targets and the third-year back has a shot at 20 opportunities. I have White projected around 70 total yards and as a near coin flip (0.47) to score a TD on the ground.
White offers 15-point upside and UPGRADES to low-end RB2 territory.
Rankings Fallers for Week 3
Kyren Williams | RB | Rams
Williams boasts a top-nine Utilization Score (8.3) but ranks as the RB20 with 14.8 points per game. If the Rams were a healthy offense, he would be a buy-low target, but that isn't the case. With Kupp and Nacua out of the lineup, the upside of this offense has vanished, and oddsmakers agree. The Rams have a bottom-seven team total (18) and are seven-point dogs to the 49ers in Week 3.
The third-year back should get his opportunities. However, without the threat of an explosive passing attack, look for the 49ers to focus on shutting down Williams and forcing an unproven receiving corps to beat them.
Williams DOWNGRADES to mid-range RB2.
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The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:
⚔️ Week 3 kicks off with a division rivalry tonight … projections for the game.
🚑️ Injury updates: Jordan Love, Cooper Kupp, Texans RBs, Justin Herbert, David Njoku, Josh Downs, Keenan Allen
💰️ The best prop bets for tonight’s Pats/Jets game. We got you covered.
🛒 The Chiefs are making moves at RB. A few names to stash here in deep leagues.
🐬 Could the Dolphins add this veteran QB? I’m into it.
🤓 The best QBs … according to analytics.
💸 Why insuring star players has become a source of NFL tension. Interesting piece here.
😆 Trey McBride mic’d up is great. “You forgot about the 4th pick, bruh.”
