In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Knockaround:
Those with David Njoku and Evan Engram didn’t get good news on Thursday. Njoku was a top-5 tight end last week in a matchup against the Chiefs and is unlikely to play with a hamstring injury after logging at least 7 receptions in three of the last four games with 3 touchdowns.
Engram hasn’t scored in his last five games, but has provided a solid floor in PPR formats for a tight end with 27 receptions in that span. Engram missed a second straight day of practice with a shoulder injury.
Some possible replacements on the waiver wire are Pat Freiermuth, Hunter Henry, Zach Ertz, and Stone Smartt. Without George Pickens, Freiermuth could see more targets. He has 14 over the last three games and has at least 9.0 PPR points in three straight games, including touchdowns in consecutive games.
Henry is coming off a bye and has at least 9.4 PPR points in three straight games, while Ertz could see more targets with Noah Brown out. Will Dissly will be out with a shoulder injury and Stone Smartt filled in last week after Dissly left the game. Smartt logged a season-high 22 snaps and caught all 3 targets for 54 yards. Next up is a Buccaneers team that allows the sixth-most fantasy points to tight ends (14.1, PPR).
How Do The TE Rankings Shake Out?
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Stat of the Day: Dominance at the WR position
- Watercooler: Sit A Star In The Playoffs?
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Utter Dominance Where It Matters Most
- By Matt LaMarca
STAT: Ja’Marr Chase has at least 5 more targets from inside the 5-yard than every other receiver in football
Chase is turning in a phenomenal season at receiver, but the way he’s done it has been interesting. Before he torched the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football, he entered that game with just a 25% target share for the year. That’s a decent figure, but it’s not quite what you’d expect for the No. 1 receiver in fantasy. It wasn’t even the best mark on his own team, with Tee Higgins posting a 28% mark.
Where Chase has excelled is at scoring touchdowns. He leads the league with 15 receiving touchdowns, and no one else has more than 9.
Scoring touchdowns is great, but it can feel a bit fluky. If a player who relies on TDs gets held out of the paint, it can lead to a disappointing fantasy day. Chase leads the league with 9.8 expected receiving touchdowns this season, but that’s still far less than his actual mark.
Fortunately, his underlying utilization helps explain his touchdown-scoring prowess. The Bengals have 30 throws from inside the 5-yard line this season, the most in the league by a wide margin. Chase has received 11 targets in that split, and no other receiver has more than 6. That’s a massive discrepancy.
Add in Chase’s ability to score from deep, and it’s not all that unreasonable that he’s scored so frequently this season. He still might not score at this type of pace forever, but it’s clear that he doesn’t need a 30+% target share to dominate. When he gets it—like he did vs. the Cowboys—he has the potential for a game-breaking performance.
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of football nerds:
🤷🏻 Can you possibly sit A.J. Brown during the first week of the fantasy playoffs?
🥲 It's OK to let go, Giants fans.
❤️ You can almost hear the cheers in Matthew’s Week 15 Love/Hate.
🐬 Just how back is Tyreek Hill? He’s bound for paydirt in Week 15.
📈 The first Big Board for the 2025 NFL Draft is here … and Travis Hunter leads the way.
🏆 Amari Cooper just might be a league winner during the fantasy playoffs.
🔮 40 bowl games on tap, and Thor has picked the winners.
🍩 Cooper Kupp had a donut that was not very tasty … and in the first round of the fantasy playoffs.
🤔 Put on your tinfoil hat on … this is going too far.
