Matthew Freedman highlights his top tight ends for fantasy football in Week 16.

Week 16.

The wheat has separated from the chaff. The cream has risen to the top. The ale has aged in the barrel. The cheese has molded.

Actually, I'm not sure if that last one is a good thing.

But you get the idea.

In most fantasy leagues, just four teams remain in the playoffs.

We have arrived at the semifinals.

The penultimate challenge one must overcome on the way to a championship.

Whether you had a Round 1 bye, dominated your competition last week, or just squeaked out a win to reach this all-important point, you're here.

This is where everything gets real.

From here on out, there are no easy wins, no soft matchups, no pretenders.

In Week 16, legitimate contenders for the crown are all that remain.

The weather may be cold, but this is the time of the season that forges the sword of victory.

You are now in the fire.

All that's left is to determine if you're a human … or a dragon.

Freedman's Favorites

As of Tuesday evening, here's an early look at my (preliminary) favorite Week 16 fantasy plays—the guys who (in some combination) …

  • Might be high in my fantasy rankings relative to the industry consensus.
  • Need to be started in most season-long leagues.
  • Must be added if they are on waivers.
  • Possess underappreciated upside.
  • Have advantageous matchups.
  • Should be considered in daily fantasy.
  • Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
  • Are on teams with player-friendly betting odds.
  • Stand out in our Fantasy Life Player Prop Tool.

Some customary notes.

Updates: After I submit this piece, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my rankings and my projections (accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription), which I will update throughout the week.

Scoring & Ordering: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players in separate sections are ordered within position roughly (but probably not precisely) according to my rankings.

Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use.

Sports Betting Data: Odds are as of 10:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Dec. 17, and based on the consensus lines in our Fantasy Life Odds Page.

Freedman's Favorites: Although we publish this piece as four separate articles broken out by position, I think of it as one cohesive whole and write it as such. With that in mind, please be sure to check out the rest of my favorite Week 16 fantasy football plays in the other positional previews.

Top Tight Ends for Week 16 Fantasy Football

Trey McBride (Cardinals) at Panthers

  • Cardinals: -4.5
  • O/U: 47
  • TT: 25.75

Who do you want to be?

I want to be the complainer. I love complaining. It's the best. Sometimes I'll just get out of my work chair, walk over to a nearby mirror, and stand there for hours, simply looking at myself while I bemoan everything wrong with the world.

But I can't in good conscience complain about McBride. He scored a 2-yard rushing TD in Week 9. He has had double-digit targets in every game since the bye. And for the season he's the No. 1 TE with a 61% WOPR.

"WOPR" stands for "weighted opportunity rating," and it measures the overall quality of a player's aerial role in his offense by considering his share of targets and air yards.

With that kind of elite usage, at some point a receiving TD will materialize. It almost did last week, when McBride was tackled at the 1-yard line on a play specifically designed to get him into the end zone. (Sheesh.)

The Panthers are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (12.4). Why can't this be the week McBride finally gets his first aerial score of the year? 

The Hot Route

Brenton Strange (Jaguars Pick'Em, TT: 19.75) at Raiders: No. 1 TE Evan Engram (shoulder, IR) is out—as are WRs Christian Kirk (shoulder, IR) and Gabe Davis (knee, IR)—and in Engram's absence Strange balled out last week with 11-73-0 receiving on 12 targets. The Raiders are No. 3 in largest fantasy boost allowed to TEs (+4.0) and without SS Marcus Epps (knee, IR).

Hunter Henry (Patriots +14, TT: 16.25) at Bills: Henry leads the Pats in targets (87), receptions (62), and receiving yards (635). That ain't nothing. The Bills could be without LB Matt Milano (groin), SS Damar Hamlin (back, ribs), FS Taylor Rapp (neck, shoulder), and backup S Cole Bishop (lower leg).

Jake Ferguson (Cowboys +3.5, TT: 22.25) vs. Buccaneers: Ferguson has just 55 scoreless yards receiving since returning in Week 14 from concussion, but his underlying usage is encouraging (82% route rate, 17% target share). For the Bucs, SS Jordan Whitehead (pectoral, IR) is out, and LB K.J. Britt (ankle), FS Antoine Winfield (knee), and backup S Mike Edwards (hamstring) are all uncertain after missing last week.

Abbreviations

  • Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
  • Against the Spread (ATS)
  • Over/Under (O/U)
  • Team Total (TT)
  • Moneyline (ML)
  • Return on Investment (ROI)
  • Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
  • Expected Points Added (EPA)
  • Success Rate (SR)
  • Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
  • Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
  • AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
  • Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
  • Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
  • Short Down and Distance (SDD)
  • Long Down and Distance (LDD)
  • Dropback Over Expected (DBOE)