“Who do you like this week?”

Great question from the gentleman in the front row. Thanks for asking.

As of Tuesday evening, here's an early look at my (preliminary) favorite running backs for fantasy football Week 4—the guys who (in some combination) …

  • Might be high in my fantasy rankings relative to the industry consensus.
  • Need to be started in most season-long leagues.
  • Must be added if they are on waivers.
  • Possess underappreciated upside.
  • Have advantageous matchups.
  • Should be considered in daily fantasy.
  • Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
  • Are on teams with player-friendly betting odds.
  • Catch my eye with their player projections.
  • Stand out in our player prop tool.

Some notes.

Updates: After I submit this piece, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my fantasy football rankings and my projections (accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription), which I will update throughout the week.

Rankings Accuracy: Last year I was No. 18 in the FantasyPros Accuracy Contest. That was my sixth season with a top-20 finish.

Scoring & Ordering: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players are ordered within position roughly (but maybe not precisely) according to my rankings.

Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use.

Sports Betting Data: Odds are as of 10:15 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Sep. 24, and based on the consensus lines in our Fantasy Life Odds Page.

For the rest of my favorite fantasy football plays for Week 4, sorted by position, see below:

Best TEs for Fantasy Football Week 4

Dalton Kincaid (Bills) at Ravens

  • Bills: +2.5
  • O/U: 46.5
  • TT: 22

Dalton Kincaid was one of my Week 1 favorites. Nothing.

Again, he was one of my Week 2 favorites. Once more, zilch.

Weeks 1-2: Six targets for 5-44-0 receiving.

Naturally, I didn't highlight him last week—and he had his best performance of the season with 3-41-1 receiving on five targets, which in the postmodern apocalypse TE hellscape qualifies as "going off."

So naturally I'm choosing to make him my TE headliner again this week. Be warned. If recent history is any indicator, when I hype Kincaid that's the sign that he's a surefire fade.

But there are legitimate reasons for liking Kincaid.

He superbly disappointed in Week 1 with just 2 targets, but in the two games since then he has had robust target rates of 27% and 31%, respectively. With 241 targets vacated this offseason via the departures of WRs Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, Kincaid still has an opportunity to emerge as the No. 1 pass catcher for the Bills.

And under new DC Zach Orr, the Ravens have disappointed against TEs, ranking No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (13.2) and No. 4 in largest fantasy boost allowed to TEs (+3.9).

You might look at who the Ravens have played—namely, Travis Kelce, Brock Bowers, and Jake Ferguson—and say that the Ravens have allowed 280 yards receiving on 31 targets to TEs because of their matchups, not because they're bad at defending the position.

Maybe. 

But it's possible the offseason departures of former DC Mike Macdonald and No. 3 S Geno Stone have had an impact. With Macdonald now in Seattle, the Seahawks have jumped up to No. 1 in defensive dropback SR (33.9%). And Stone last year played 1,000 snaps, had a near-elite 85.3 PFF coverage grade, and often served as the unit's primary TE defender when SS Kyle Hamilton played in the slot.

With Macdonald and Stone now gone, Hamilton has suffered a year-over-year 90.1-to-57.4 coverage grade decline.

The Ravens simply might not be as good as they used to be at defending TEs.

And, besides, Kincaid is in the same general tier with Kelce, Bowers, and Ferguson. If those guys can collectively produce against the Ravens, then Kincaid can, too.

Hopefully.

The Hot Route

Travis Kelce (Chiefs -8, TT: 23.5) at Chargers: SS Derwin James (suspension) is out. If not now, when?

Dallas Goedert (Eagles -2, TT: 23.5) at Buccaneers: WRs A.J. Brown (hamstring) and DeVonta Smith (concussion) are uncertain, and WR Britain Covey (shoulder, IR) is out. For the season, Goedert has 239 yards receiving with 12.0 yards per target and a position-best 8.0 Utilization Score. FS Antoine Winfield (foot) hasn't practiced nor played since Week 1.

Mike Gesicki (Bengals -4.5, TT: 26.25) at Panthers: Although he has a route rate of just 50%, Gesicki has a strong target rate of 31%, which he has turned into 14-156-0 receiving. The Panthers are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (12.7).

Cole Kmet (Bears -3, TT: 22) vs. Rams: Over the past few weeks Kmet has overtaken Gerald Everett to be the No. 1 TE for the Bears, and last game he turned his season-high 73% route rate into 10-97-1 receiving on 11 targets. The Rams are without FS John Johnson (shoulder, IR) and rank No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA against TEs (78.1%).

Abbreviations

  • Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
  • Against the Spread (ATS)
  • Over/Under (O/U)
  • Team Total (TT)
  • Moneyline (ML)
  • Return on Investment (ROI)
  • Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
  • Expected Points Added (EPA)
  • Success Rate (SR)
  • Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
  • Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
  • AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
  • Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
  • Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
  • Short Down and Distance (SDD)
  • Long Down and Distance (LDD)