In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Paramount+:
Last night Mike Evans scored his 100th receiving TD of his career last night and then promptly exited the game with a hamstring injury.
Chris Godwin, who was on his way to a career year, suffered a brutal lower leg injury in the fourth quarter.
That’s the 2024 season in a nutshell. The second you think you can exhale and finally enjoy some fantasy points, the other shoe drops. In the same game Lamar Jackson threw for 281 yards and 5 scores, the Bucs were devastated by injuries.
If anyone can relate to the Bucs’ injury woes, it’s the San Francisco 49ers. They had a day to misremember on Monday …
Brandon Aiyuk is done for the year. Our worst fears from Sunday were confirmed yesterday. Aiyuk will miss the rest of the season with a torn ACL and MCL. There is concern that there is more damage, which could lead to an extra-long recovery. Brutal.
Deebo Samuel was hospitalized with pneumonia. We finally got our answer to what the hell was going on with Deebo yesterday after he was active but only played a couple of snaps. He is dealing with fluid in his lungs and there is no timetable for his return.
George Kittle has a sprained foot. As if this couldn’t get any worse, even Kittle is day-to-day with an injury. Dare I say … sheesh.
CMC not expected back until after the bye. Aaaaand one more piece of bummer news for good measure. We likely won’t see him back in action until Nov. 10 at the earliest.
As you might imagine, there is a lot of opportunity up for grabs in the Niners offense and reinforcements available. Read on for our crew’s advice on how to attack the Week 8 waiver wire …
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Dwain’s Utilization Report: Two Massive Upgrades To Monitor
- Kendall Valenzuela’s Week 8 Waiver Wire Adds
- Watercooler: Injury updates
- Ian Hartitz’s Sheesh Report from Week 7
Week 8 Utilization Report
Breece Hall's role is massive under new OC Todd Downing.
Over the last two games, Hall has the No. 1 Utilization Score in fantasy football at 9.6.
Snaps: 85% (elite)
Attempts: 83% (elite)
Routes: 76% (elite)
Targets: 22% (elite)
Fantasy points per game: 24 (elite)
It just doesn't get any better than that, folks. If you have Hall on your roster, it is time to sit back and enjoy the good life. His closest Utilization Score comps have averaged 20.8 points per game and finished as a top-3 RB 67% of the time. None have finished lower than RB9.
Hall UPGRADES to top-3 status the rest of the way.
George Pickens shows signs of life with Russell Wilson.
Pickens has performed better than many realize. He ranks seventh in target share (30%) and third in air-yards share (51%). However, the Steelers have been the second-most run-heavy team (-6.7% DBOE), and he and Justin Fields hadn't found the chemistry to unlock his potential, which is a formidable combination to overcome.
However, Russell Wilson took over the starting QB role in Week 7, and Pickens posted his highest average depth of target (aDOT) of the season at 17.9 yards. That led to a 70% air-yards share and helped unlock a season-high 22.1 points from the talented young WR. Pickens might have scored even more points if not for the underthrows by Wilson, but the key here is intent. Wilson is willing to target Pickens downfield, and their timing should improve.
The Steelers aren't going to stop running the ball, and Arthur Smith could limit Pickens' playing time at any moment, which keeps me from giving the young WR a big upgrade. However, this is a step in the right direction.
Pickens UPGRADES to midrange WR3 territory and could find his way to WR2 status with Wilson under center.
More Utilization Report Takeaways
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Week 8 Waiver Wire Pickups
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Dolphins (45% rostered)
According to multiple reports, the Miami Dolphins could be getting Tua Tagovailoa back in Week 8. And wow, is it needed. On Sunday against the Colts, quarterback Tyler Huntley went down in the third quarter with a shoulder injury and was unable to return. Tim Boyle (who was signed to the active roster on Saturday) finished the game and was 8-of-13 for 74 yards.
Tagovailoa is expected to return to practice on Wednesday with the hopes that he can return on Sunday to play against the Arizona Cardinals. I know it's cheating, since he's over 40% rostered, but he's important enough to highlight here. Heading into their Week 7 matchup, the Dolphins were averaging a league-worst 12.0 points per game.
Ricky Pearsall, WR, 49ers (13% rostered)
The 49ers were basically without all their receivers on Sunday—Deebo Samuel had an illness, Jauan Jennings was out with a hip injury and then the team lost Brandon Aiyuk to a season-ending ACL injury (they really just cannot catch a break). Pearsall was shot in the chest in training camp and returned just 50 days later to play in his first game of the season—he finished with 3 receptions on 5 targets for 21 yards. As Dwain McFarland pointed out in the Utilization Report, Pearsall had an 86% route participation and 18% target share, but only came up with 5.1 fantasy points. That should improve.
The team will need both Pearsall and Jennings to step up with Aiyuk out. We will need to watch the injury reports to see if Jennings will be in line to play in Week 8. It's not an ideal situation in this receiver room, but I know Pearsall will be more readily available across leagues than Jennings, plus he has first-round draft capital tied to him. Continue reading though for a deeper play you could look at in this 49ers offense!
AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:
🤝 Dwain and Ian run through the Utilization Report and Waiver Wire Targets.
😆 Stefon Diggs is hilarious. Protect him at all costs.
🚑️ Injury updates. Jayden Daniels, DK Metcalf, Tua.
❓How to save your team. The Fantasy Life Waiver Wire Tool is here to help.
🤦 Saquon could have had an even bigger day! Smh.
🏃 The WRs who get off the blocks the fastest. Fun list.
Week 7 Sheesh Report: Just a Bit Outside
by Ian Hartitz
Would’ve been a lot cooler if Mahomes hit this deep ball
Entering last week Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes had the lowest average target depth (5.7) yards since post-surgery Alex Smith (5.4). Perhaps he took this personally, as Kansas City dialed up a BOMB to Xavier Worthy on the first play of the second half looking to stretch their 14-6 lead.
Kudos to the rookie for getting ample separation deep down field, but at the end of the day: Sheesh.
Apparently it is possible to overthrow the fastest man alive. Who would have thought?
Anyway, I looked at every incomplete pass that was thrown at least 20 yards downfield and/or into the end zone to get an idea of who just missed out on some big plays last week—and there were three other instances that especially stuck out:
Steelers WR George Pickens: Created some separation from ace Jets CB Sauce Gardner on the scramble drill, but Russell Wilson couldn't quite give his contested-catch artist a chance at the 4-yard TD while rolling to his left.
Broncos TE Lucas Krull: Remember that infamous miss by Bo Nix that featured him somehow land the ball between two wide-open receivers? Well, there was only one defender between both players and the end zone, so an accurate pass to his intended target should have led to a fairly easy 41-yard score.
Lions WR Kalif Raymond: Broke rather wide open deep on a smooth double-move for a potential long score, but Jared Goff had a rare miss and led his intended target out of bounds on what best case could have been a 66-yard house call.
Unsurprisingly, these weren't the only receivers forced to leave quite a few yards on the field last week …
Unrealized air yards are a helluva drug
We can help quantify sheeshy missed downfield opportunities using "unrealized air yards," which are derived by subtracting yards after the catch from every player’s receiving yards total before taking the difference with total air yards to pinpoint exactly how much opportunity through the air (not including potential YAC) a player failed to come down with for one reason or another.
We're essentially measuring the total distance of everyone's incomplete targets. A high number indicates a player had lots of fantasy-friendly opportunities, but didn't capitalize on them for one reason or another. Cool? Cool.
ANYWAY: Eight players racked up at least 70 unrealized air yards in Week 7:
Chiefs WR Xavier Worthy (127)
Titans WR Calvin Ridley (112)
Buccaneers WR Jalen McMillan (93)
Saints WR Mason Tipton (89)
Raiders WR Tre Tucker (84)
Giants WR Malik Nabers (76)
Browns WR Cedric Tillman (75)
Jets WR Garrett Wilson (73)
Through seven weeks the unrealized air yards leaderboard is headlined by Ridley (510) and Amari Cooper (510), although it's safe to say the latter WR should be dealing with more accurate targets moving forward inside the friendly confines of this Josh Allen-led Bills offense.
Rough stuff here indeed, although our next category of sheesh is especially tilting for fantasy managers and anytime TD bettors to deal with.
