In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Paramount+:
This is one of the more injury-riddled Sundays that I can remember.
There’s a long list of players whose status is still up in the air, so it’ll be important to track the news closely this morning.
Here is everything we know right now (along with some of my leans on whether to start ‘em or sit ‘em) …
EXPECTED TO PLAY: Jordan Love (knee), Deebo Samuel (calf), George Kittle (hamstring), Justin Herbert (ankle), Rachaad White (illness), Alvin Kamara (hips/ribs), Kenneth Walker (oblique), Sam LaPorta (ankle)
I’m starting all of the above guys where they are regular starters for me … The Love return is a massive boost for that entire offense. Jayden Reed should be started everywhere and Romeo Doubs is a fine WR3/FLEX option … There’s some worry that Deebo will be limited, but it’s impossible to sit him when he can do so much on so few touches.
For a full injury round-up with more in-depth analysis, check out this piece from Chris Allen and Jorge Martin.
GAME TIME DECISION: Joe Mixon (ankle), Chris Olave (hamstring), Raheem Mostert (chest)
These are the tricky ones. There are conflicting reports on Olave, so you’ll need to visit our inactives page after 11:30 am ET to confirm whether he is playing or not. My gut instinct is to start both Mixon and Olave if they are active. Both have good matchups. I like Cam Akers if Mixon can’t go, though.
OUT: A.J. Brown (hamstring), Davante Adams (hamstring)
Brock Bowers is going to feast today, but Jakobi Meyers (our consensus WR27) is a great start as well. There’s legit smoke around a possible Adams trade, so make sure Tre Tucker is stashed on your bench.
As for the Eagles, their WR room couldn’t be anymore decimated. Refer to our rankings and tiers for how to approach Jahan Dotson, Parris Campbell, and Johnny Wilson.
Read on for the Week 4 DFS plays and some other overnight news in the Watercooler …
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- James McCool’s Week 4 DFS Advice: His top stack and GPP gems
- Watercooler: 2 star players set to return
Week 4 NFL DFS Plays: Top Stack and GPP Gems
- by James McCool
Week 4 has arrived, and as team strengths and weaknesses become clearer, leveraging matchups is critical to crafting effective daily fantasy strategies. I'm looking at all of them and scouring data to help you make good DFS choices with my Week 4 DraftKings NFL DFS plays, featuring my top stack, value plays, GPP plays, and fades.
Our NFL DFS Projections and DFS Pick'em Tool are also great resources; if you're interested in college DFS, we have projections here too.
Top Week 4 NFL DFS Stack
Houston Texans
Coming off a disappointing loss to the Vikings, the Texans are in a prime spot to bounce back with a Week 4 matchup against the Jaguars. Houston has a healthy team total at 26.25 fantasy points and a good median as a QB+2 stack of 50.50 points for their top combination.
The Texans are a little lower on this list, but they are in striking distance, and I think they are worth highlighting. Arizona is the only team above Houston in terms of team total, and the Texans' top finish rate of 7.50% is the third highest on the slate overall. Their ownership is also the highest sum of any QB+2 (41.17%), which can be good when building for different contest types.
Algorithmically, Houston makes sense based on medians, upsides, and roster construction, and the Texans also make sense from a matchup perspective. The Jaguars are currently the third-worst defense in the league against QBs, according to the DvP model here at Fantasy Life, allowing 21.7 PPR points and a boost of 3.8 PPR points above average.
The Texans also run man coverage at a top rate in the league, which Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs can take full advantage of. It's a mismatch in firepower and coaching tendencies, and I want a lot of exposure to this bounce-back game.
GPP Gems
RB: Jordan Mason
While Jordan Mason is coming off two weeks of 50%+ ownership, he let the field down last week with just 10.8 PPR points—but the points don't tell the whole story.
Mason had terrific usage with a utilization score of 7.5 and the best route participation (71%) he has had this year. He's projected for 25% ownership, but that's not near enough for someone with his price and workload; the field may have soured too much on him. It's not rocket science to play the guy with a projection of nearly 20 PPR points at a sub-$7k price tag, but 75% of the field isn't making the clever play, so there's a ton of relative value to be gained.
WR: Rashid Shaheed
Another player being punished for a bad Week 3 is Rashid Shaheed, who went from 25% ownership last week to an ownership projection of 1% in Week 4. That is too drastic of a drop in ownership, considering no price jump and a middle-of-the-road matchup
Likewise, Shaheed had basically no drop in production in Week 3, when he saw 26% of the targets and 51% of the air yards, which are almost exactly the same as his season averages. He projects for 14.46 fantasy points this week, has a 20+ rate of 24.30%, and deserves more ownership than this. Jump on the flop lag wagon and go for a ride with Shaheed.
TE: Cole Kmet
Cole Kmet is an entertaining play that I think people will sleep on. In 2023, Kmet finished with 21% targets per route run and had a 19% target share on 69% of the snaps, good for a utilization score of 7.1.
So far this year, his utilization score is at 7.1 as well, but I consider that closer to his floor than his ceiling. He just posted a score of 9.7 on 73% route participation and a 24% target share, along with 20% of the endzone targets. The kicker is that the Bears face the Rams this week, who have allowed the most PPR points to opposing QBs and the third-most to TEs with 14.4. Bears stacks are entirely in play, and Kmet is a great lower-owned option.
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The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:
🔥 Chiefs vs. Chargers is the Paramount+ Matchup of the Week: Can Patrick Mahomes & Co. make it 4-0?
📈 Can you buy low on Garrett Wilson before he blows up?
🐬 The Dolphins make a QB change. Can’t hurt, I suppose.
🤑 Projected spreads and totals for every game on Sunday … and which provide the biggest betting edges.
🙏 Two star players nearing return. Their PUP list stints are coming to an end.
🚀 I can’t wait to draft Ryan Williams—the 17-year-old WR phenom.
