In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Paramount+:
We just aren’t allowed to have nice things, are we?
The Season From Injury Hell™ stayed on brand yesterday as we received news that the Texans are placing Nico Collins on IR with a hamstring injury and that Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr. is dealing with a back injury that will sideline him “multiple weeks.”
Collins somehow went from “day-to-day” to “week-to-week,” to out for a minimum of four weeks in a span of hours.
What a cruel game we play.
Before the Week 4 slate, I wrote up Collins and Rashee Rice as two ascending stars who were still far too cheap in DFS. Now Collins is on ice for a month and Rice is done for the year.
I know it offers very little solace, but Collins and Rice drafters deserve a victory lap despite the incoming zeros. At the very least, feel free to sob “The process was correct!” into your pillow a few times.
Zooming out, the amount of early WRs who have missed—or will miss—three or more games is staggering (and depressing):
- A.J. Brown (3 games)
- Puka Nacua (4+)
- Collins (4+)
- Cooper Kupp (3+)
- Davante Adams (3+)
- Pittman Jr. (3+?)
And this is all before I mention that Malik Nabers, who missed last week’s game, is still in the concussion protocol.
I don’t know who I need to ask to make this all stop, but I’m ready to run it up the flagpole. Morale is at an all-time low. It’s enough already.
As for new rankings risers like Tank Dell, Dalton Schultz, Josh Downs, and Adonai Mitchell, check out Dwain’s piece below …
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Dwain’s Week 6 Rankings: Risers, Fallers, and Sicko Starts
- Watercooler: TNF goodness
Week 6 Risers & Fallers
by Dwain McFarland
It is time to set our fantasy lineups for Week 6, and with that in mind, let's follow the data to analyze some of the biggest risers and fallers in the ranks to help you make those critical start-sit decisions.
📈 Rankings Risers
- Stefon Diggs & Tank Dell | WR | Texans
Nico Collins was placed on IR with a hamstring injury this week. That opens the door for Diggs and Dell to claim more significant roles over the next four games.
Diggs has been the most impressive of the two, with a 22% target share. His 7.1 Utilization Score suggests the veteran is likely a WR2 with Collins, which makes him a borderline WR1 without. Don't be surprised if the Texans' new slot option pushes for a target share closer to 30% over the next month.
Dell hasn't looked like himself to start the season (5.0 Utilization Score). He is coming off of a late season-ending injury (fibula fracture) in 2023 and suffered a gunshot wound to the leg in May. We don't know if Dell can flip on the switch, but I am not brave enough to keep him out of my lineups this weekend. Last season, in a more condensed Texans' passing attack, Dell averaged 18.9 points in games where he eclipsed 50% route participation. His average route participation this year is 82%.
Diggs UPGRADES to low-end WR1 territory, and Dell is a boom-bust borderline WR2.
- Diontae Johnson | WR | Panthers
Johnson doesn't have a smash matchup or any one-week event working in his favor, but this is a reminder that he has a 9.0 Utilization Score in three games with Andy Dalton. He has a tantalizing 30% target and 49% air yards share over those three games, averaging 17.8 points per contest.
Don't overreact to Johnson's bad Week 5. He REMAINS a mid-range WR2 with WR1 upside.
📉 Rankings Faller
- Josh Allen | QB | Bills
The Bills offense started hot, but Allen is down to 189 yards per game passing after throwing for only 131 yards against the Texans in Week 5. The reigning QB1 is still involved enough in the rushing attack with an 8% designed rush share and 10% scramble rate to stay in the mid-range QB1 conversation. However, the upside is capped in the current iteration of the Bills passing game.
A tough matchup with the Jets–who have limited much better versions of Buffalo's passing game in recent years–makes Allen a riskier-than-normal play. New York has allowed the second-fewest passing yards per game (161), limiting opposing QBs to the fewest fantasy points through the air at eight per game.
Allen DOWNGRADES to mid-range QB1 territory and has a *gulp* low-end QB2 floor.
👀 Sicko Start
I want to throw in a few names for all my fellow fantasy managers that are in a SICKO league. If you are in a 12-team league with three starting WRs and two flexes, these are for you! Or you are in a more typical setup but need a name to help get you through injuries; these are for you!
Let's go, you sickos.
- Jalen Tolbert | WR | Cowboys
Tolbert came to life last weekend with Brandin Cooks placed on IR. The third-year WR registered a 26% target share and delivered a 9.1 Utilization Score. While I am not confident in him sustaining these levels thanks to an underlying 16% TPRR this season, the matchup is B-E-A-U-T-I-F-U-L this weekend against a funnel defense in Detroit (see Dak Prescott in the risers section).
Tolbert is a WR4 with WR2 spike upside.
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The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:
👀 Terry McLaurin, J.K. Dobbins … Olamide Zaccheaus?? Start/Sit for Week 6 and there are some deep cuts.
⚔️ Week 6 kicks off with another division rivalry tonight … projections for the game.
📈 Players not practicing yesterday: Joe Mixon, Khalil Shakir and James Cook, Jonathan Taylor, Zack Moss.
💰️ The best prop bets for tonight’s 49ers/Seahawks game. We’ve got you covered.
📈 Rest of Season fantasy rankings. Waz has you covered.
😨 Good luck Drake Maye. Not what you want to see.
⚜️ The Saints have a new starting QB. Time for the young gun.
