Two Pivotal Training Camp Reports: News out of LA and Denver
On Friday, I was begging for absolutely anything resembling news.
Well, the fantasy gods heard my prayer.
Here are two things that caught my eye over the weekend…
A surprising RB cut in Denver? Broncos beat reporter Troy Renck floated an interesting theory that Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine are competing for one roster spot.
How to play it? While this is only conjecture, it’s worth noting that Williams is going 100 picks earlier than Perine. I wouldn’t touch Javonte at these prices until we get better camp reports. The obvious target here, though, is rookie RB Audric Estime. He’s about to scream up draft boards.
Bail on this 2nd-year WR? Daniel Popper planted his flag that the three Chargers WRs in 11 personnel packages will be Joshua Palmer, Ladd McConkey, and DJ Chark.
How to play it? If true, that makes Quentin Johnston the odd man out. QJ was, frankly, atrocious last year so this isn’t shocking news. Still, Chark—who can definitely still get loose for a deep ball or two—goes 50+ picks after Johnston.
I think these WRs are the perfect example for the differences between redraft managed leagues and best ball. QJ is cheap enough to take a flier on in managed because you can cut him quickly if he doesn’t have a role. Chark will be hard to know when to start, which makes him a much better best ball option to pair with Justin Herbert.
What is in today’s newsletter?
- Ian Hartitz’s QB Tiers
- A contest with a $1.5m top prize
- Watercooler: Kendall highlights players to target in Yahoo! drafts.
QB Tiers: 6 Alphas Form Tier 1
by Ian Hartitz
Tier-based drafting is essentially the practice of asking yourself "What can I get now that I can't get later" before every pick and acting accordingly. This practice certainly goes hand in hand with fantasy football rankings and general draft strategy; just realize leaning on tiers is really useful when attempting to discern whether or not you have the luxury of waiting on the position in question, or if the time to act is meow.
Today's goal: QB tiers with superlatives to highlight some of the biggest questions facing the involved signal-callers. The QBs are listed in order of my personal rankings inside the tiers and are followed by one specific superlative-themed write-up. Check out my team preview series for full thoughts on every team's QB room.
As always: It's a great day to be great.
Tier 1: Dual-threat aliens (6)
QBs with high-volume rushing roles tend to be cheat codes in fantasy football land. These signal-callers are all expected to have just that, with the one exception quite possibly being an actual alien …
Bills QB Josh Allen: QB2, QB1, QB2 and QB1 in fantasy points per game over the past four seasons.
Eagles QB Jalen Hurts: Trails only Allen (22.3 vs. 23.8) in fantasy points per game over the past three seasons.
Ravens QB Lamar Jackson: Owner of the single-most productive fantasy season from a QB on a per-game basis (27.7 in 2019) in NFL history.
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes: Career average of 22.4 fantasy points per game is first among all QBs to ever start 16-plus games.
Colts QB Anthony Richardson: I will ride my bike from Columbus, Ohio to Lucas Oil Stadium if the reigning QB1 in fantasy points per dropback plays 17 games next season and doesn't finish as a top-12 fantasy QB.
Cardinals QB Kyler Murray: One of four QBs in NFL history to average 20-plus fantasy points per game for their career.
Most likely to surprisingly fall in drafts: Kyle Murray
Five quick awesome things about Murray's fantasy football prognosis:
The 2019 NFL Draft's No. 1 overall pick is one of four QBs in NFL history to average 20-plus fantasy points per game for their career.
He led a top-10 offense in EPA per play, yards per play and TD drive percentage upon returning from injury last season – and looked good doing it.
Now healthy, Murray received one of the offseason's biggest prizes in the form of (wait for it) generational WR Marvin Harrison Jr., who is projected to put up top-12 numbers in his first season as a pro.
Dual-threat QBs tend to be a bit of a cheat code in fantasy land.
Oh yeah, there's also weekly shootout potential on a team with the league's reigning 31st-ranked scoring defense
And you're telling me there are 85-plus players who ESPN drafters would apparently rather draft at the moment? Couldn't be me: Murray is my QB6 and 64th-ranked player off the board – both highs among the Fantasy Life rankings staff.
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The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:
✍️ Four players who should be considered steals at their ADPs. Kendall breaks down these values on Yahoo!.
👀 Is Kyler Murray the top QB option in 2024 fantasy drafts? Ian and Dwain are hashing it out LIVE.
🤡 Don’t finish last in your fantasy league. Tough scene.
💸 5 teams were willing to pay Brandon Aiyuk before the draft. Interesting.
🛏️ The QB/WR sharing a hotel rom. Adjust the ranks.
💰️ A Saints WR gets a new extension. You know Cooterdoodle is stoked.
🙏 A two-time SB Champ retires. Great career.
🤯 An absolutely insane throw from Patrick Mahomes. And look who caught it…
