The preseason is just the tip of the iceberg when trying to figure out what will happen in the upcoming fantasy football season. It is a portion of a much larger picture that isn't visible to us that we can see, so we tend to overanalyze (yes, I am looking in the mirror). 

Because of that, we want to be careful with how much emphasis we place on preseason play, but when paired with other clues — i.e., draft capital, mini-camp and training camp reports, coaching interviews, etc. — it can be helpful in the right cases.

With all that in mind, below are the biggest storylines of Week 1 in preseason and what they mean for fantasy football.

If you want the full breakdown of every takeaway from the weekend beyond my top 10 below — check them out here.

1. Brian Thomas Jr. and Keon Coleman are TRENDING UP

Brian Thomas Jr. played 100% of the snaps with the starters. He wasn't targeted by Lawrence but pulled down a 42-yard reception from Beathard on the third drive to finish his night. 

The Jaguars have some nice receiving options, but none of them are alphas, which leaves room for the first-round NFL Draft pick to emerge in a big way as a rookie. Thomas is one of my favorite targets in fantasy drafts.

Keon Coleman led the Bills with a 100% route participation over the first two drives with the starters. He delivered a 27% target share. I have Coleman projected for 80% route participation this season, with Mack Hollins (who didn't play) taking away some work, but this is still an encouraging sign for the rookie. He has the most unknown upside of any Bills pass catcher and goes outside the top 100 picks on most sites.

2. Two rookie QBs offer upside at a discount

Caleb Williams played 18 snaps and dropped back to pass eight times on two drives. He completed four of seven passes for 95 yards and added 13 rushing yards on a scramble.

Williams looked impressive, converting a third and 12 to DJ Moore, keeping a screen alive with what looked like a no-look pass to D'Andre Swift that went for 42 yards and a sick throw rolling to his right that found Cole Kmet for 26 yards. 

We shouldn't overreact to the preseason (i.e., Sam Howell and Kenny Pickett last season), but Williams made plays we don't see every day. He had an easy check-down option on the long third-down conversion but knew what he needed to get the first and fired away. Williams offers as much upside as any QB going outside the top 12 in fantasy drafts.

Jayden Daniels played the first drive, which included 11 snaps and three dropbacks. He completed two of three passes for 45 yards — including a 42-yard dime — and took a designed rushing attempt for a score from the three-yard line.

Daniels remains one of my favorite draft targets, but we will see if this performance pushes him up the draft boards.

3. How will the Bears rotate their passing weapons?

Keenan Allen didn't have a target with Williams but played 100% of the dropbacks, including reps outside in 12 personnel. Allen played 47% of his routes from the slot — mostly when the team went to 11 personnel. We are dealing with a small sample that could change next week, but knowing which Bears WRs will be on the field in 2WR sets matters. The team has two quality TEs and Shane Waldron utilized multi-TE sets often in Seattle. Let's see if this trend continues for Allen, but if he holds onto the work in 2WR sets all season, he will outperform his current ADP.

DJ Moore posted a 63% route participation rate with Williams at QB. There is nothing to overreact to here based on one game, but there is some risk with the Bears' WRs and playing time, given that they could use plenty of two-TE sets. Moore led the team with three targets, with two of them off of play action boots with him as a primary read. 

Moore is likely the Bears' best WR, given his talent and age, so I am not moving him in the ranks right now given how well Williams played. However, if Chicago heavily rotates their WRs this season and Williams is only average, Moore won't pay off his current ADP.

Rome Odunze had a 50% route participation and one target with the starters. If Allen continues to get most of the looks in 2WR sets, it could dramatically impact Odunze's outlook — especially early in the season. Odunze is still the type of talent profile we want to bet on, but some patience could be required unless Waldron shifts to an 11-personnel-centered attack.

Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett registered 63% route participation rates. With the starters only set to play two drives, the coaching staff might have forced things a bit with Everett, but his presence is a threat to Kmet's fantasy value, which already took a hit with the arrival of Allen and Odunze. I expect Kmet to lead these two TEs, but having Everett around will still hurt, making Kmet a fade for me until late in drafts.

4. Is Tank Dell the odd man out in two WR sets in Houston?

Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs posted 100% route participation marks, and Dell registered 75% on four Stroud dropbacks. Dell left the field in 12 and 21 personnel groupings. The Texans rotated their WRs often last season, so it is hard to say if this means Collins and Diggs will play more than Dell, who had a beautiful 34-yard TD reception.

While this wouldn't be ideal, we need more evidence to move Dell down draft boards. He has the playmaking profile to survive with a 75% to 85% route participation rate if the Texans center their offense around three WR sets. The man averaged 18.9 PPG in eight contests with a route participation rate over 50% last season. We can use this information as a tiebreaker against similar WRs, but let's take our time and not push Dell too far down the ranks — he is just too good.

5. The next Gronkowski and Hernandez?

Just kidding, just kidding! We don't have the QB in place to get *that* hyped here, but it is worth pointing out that the Raiders got both men on the field a ton together with the starters.

Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer posted 79% and 86% snap rates. It is a small sample, but we last saw that type of playing time for two starting TEs: Gronkowski and Hernandez. On the downside, Bowers and Mayer each had a 50% route participation. However, those could come up when the Raiders get tackle Kolton Miller (PUP) and guard Jackson Powers-Johnson (PUP) back.

Bowers belongs in the top 10, and Mayer is a sneaky late-round pick in deeper TE premium formats.

6. George Pickens: D-O-G

If you want to get the rabbit out of the L-O-G
You gotta make a commotion like a D-O-G
Like a D-O-G, like D-O-G, yeah

— Waylon Jennings ("Waymore Blues")

I don't know why I put those lines from Waylon in here, other than Pickens being a D-O-G, and with the Brandon Aiyuk trade rumors fading, he has to be on our draft radar.

Pickens had a 26% target share on plays without Diontae Johnson last season. During games without Johnson, he averaged 17 points per game. During Week 1 of the preseason, he notched a 100% route participation and a 33% target share. 

The QB situation in Pittsburgh could be better, and Arthur Smith will pound the rock, but the target competition is meager, and Pickens might be an alpha. Pickens offers WR2 upside, and you can draft him after pick 50 on most sites.

7. Key Missing Ingredient For Dontayvion Wicks: Routes.

As we saw last season, the Packers will likely rotate all their skill-position players — which was the case in a *tiny sample of three snaps* in Week 1 of the preseason.

Wicks also played a part-time role last year but flashed with a 2.04 yards per route run (YPRR). In the two games where he reached 70% route participation, he notched 16 and 24 points. If any of the Packers suffer an injury or struggle, Wicks could push for more playing time. 

If that day comes, Wicks might offer WR1 upside — he was at it again in Week 1 of the preseason with one catch for 65 yards and a TD. 

If you are looking for upside later in your draft at the position, Wicks is one of the best clicks on the board. Just realize you might have to be patient.

8. Rookie RB Handcuffs Galore

Braelon Allen played three drives, including 100% of the snaps with the starters. The fourth-round rookie led the team with 54 yards on six totes with Breece Hall out. It was an excellent first performance all around. Allen ran with power, picked up a blitz and snared a reception on the scramble drill from Taylor. Allen's preseason Week 1 utilization and play align with camp reports. He is starting to look like one of the better handcuffs in fantasy. I moved him closer to Tyler Allgeier in the ranks.

Bucky Irving played 100% of the snaps and handled 75% of the attempts over the first two drives, with mostly starting offensive linemen with Rachaad White out. He played four drives and finished with 28 rushing yards on six carries — including a TD — and two targets. We will see how these splits look when Edmonds plays. It isn't unusual for a veteran like Edmonds to get the first game off, but it doesn't mean he is ahead of Irving. I have Irving projected as the No. 2 with a 25% rush share, making him a fine late-round pick.

Jaylen Wright entered the game on the fifth drive and played into the third quarter in a game where the Dolphins rested their starters. The fourth-round rookie might be fourth on the depth chart right now, but he demonstrated big-play ability with 10 carries for 55 yards and a TD.

I don't care about the depth chart in Miami — give me good players on good teams. If Wright finds his way into the lineup at any point this year, he could make the kind of impact that fantasy managers crave. He will likely move up after this performance but is currently very cheap in all formats.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. started and handled 89% of the snaps with second-string starter Drew Lock in the game. The rookie looked sharp with five attempts for 26 yards. It is a small sample, but Tracy didn't sub out for short yardage (SDD) and obvious passing downs (LDD). Tracy is a sleeper to target late in fantasy drafts.

9. WR Situations To Monitor

Jaxon Smith-Njigba played the first three drives and garnered two targets (18%) with a 93% route participation. The fact that JSN played while veterans Metcalf and Lockett rested isn't ideal, but it isn't surprising, given his lackluster Year 1. 

It's a small sample, but the more significant concern was his low aDOT (6.0), an issue that plagued his upside last season. If JSN is going to live in that range, he must be an absolute volume hog to a level similar to Amon-Ra St. Brown or up his YAC game. I am not moving Smith-Njigba down in projections or the ranks, but seeing some signs of life would be nice.

Curtis Samuel didn't play the first drive but ended up with a 69% route participation and 18% target share with two targets — including a quick screen — with the starters. He had 75% participation with Josh Allen, and many of his routes were at or behind the line of scrimmage. I have Samuel projected for a 75% route participation rate and a 17% target share. While reports from camp have indicated Samuel was playing more outside, he played from the slot on 67% of the snaps — battling with Khalil Shakir for playing time.

Khalil Shakir played all three snaps on the first drive, but his routes curiously dipped to only 39% with the starters. On plays with Allen, he was at 50%. Still, Shakir accumulated three targets (27%) and looked like the Bills' best WR during his limited playing time, leading the starters with 28 yards. He played from the slot on 86% of snaps, which aligns with camp reports, but Samuel stole many of those reps in Week 1 of the preseason.

10. Split backfields looking how their teams said they would

Tennessee Titans

  • Tony Pollard played 57% of the snaps and accounted for 50% of the designed rush attempts with the starters. He posted a 33% route participation, caught two targets for 11 yards and rushed for 35. Pollard held a slight utilization lead in this contest, but he and Tyjae Spears should be tight in usage all season. The coaching staff has told us multiple times that they view Pollard and Tyjae Spears interchangeably, which matches Week 1 of the preseason. Pollard is an RB3 with RB1 spike-week upside.
  • Spears handled 43% of the snaps, 38% of the rushing attempts and registered a 50% route participation rate with the starters. His box score didn't look as good, with only two yards on three carries, but he faced multiple defenders in the backfield on two carries. Spears still flashed his playmaking ability with a sweet cutback for a TD. Like Pollard, Spears is an RB3 with RB1 spike-week upside.

Washington Commanders

  • Brian Robinson Jr. led the Commanders' backfield with 55% of the attempts with Jayden Daniels in the game. He was limited to a 33% route participation rate in the passing attack. Robinson is an RB3 with contingent RB2 upside.
  • Austin Ekeler handled 25% of the rushing attempts and led the team with a 67% route participation rate on the first drive with the starters. Ekeler is an RB4 with contingent RB upside.