The preseason is just the tip of the iceberg when trying to figure out what will happen in the upcoming fantasy football season. It's a portion of a much larger picture that isn't visible to us that we can see, so we tend to overanalyze (yes, I am looking in the mirror).

Because of that, we want to be careful with how much emphasis we place on preseason play, but when paired with other clues – i.e., draft capital, mini-camp and training camp reports, coaching interviews, etc. – it can be helpful in the right cases.

With all that in mind, below are the biggest storylines of Week 3 in preseason and what they mean for fantasy football.

If you want the full breakdown of every takeaway from the weekend beyond my top 10 below – check them out here.

1. Bucky Irving moves into my Top 150

Irving handled drives two through five, playing 100% of snaps. He has looked great on the ground all preseason but showed up in pass protection in Week 3. Sean Tucker didn't sniff the field until the sixth possession, and Chase Edmonds will likely be placed on IR.

Irving is the clear-cut No. 2 back in Tampa and would surge to RB2 territory if something happened to White. However, Irving isn't a pure handcuff play. Given how well the rookie meshes with what this staff wants from their backs, the door is open for Irving to push White for reps as the season progresses. Irving moves inside my top 150 and is one of my favorite picks on the board at RB.

2. Diontae Johnson offers AMAZING value in fantasy drafts

Johnson had a 100% route participation and a 29% target share on the drive with Bryce Young. The rapport between the two might already be in midseason form—they were hand-in-glove on a scramble drill connection.

Young played his only preseason drive with 12 snaps and nine dropbacks. He looked crisp, going six of eight for 70 yards. It's a small sample, but the former No. 1 overall pick pushed the ball downfield—including a great intermediate throw to Johnson on the run. This is the Bryce Young we saw at Alabama, not the check-down king he was forced to become with suspect weapons and offensive line play in 2023.

Johnson is an alpha target earner with a WR8 finish already on his resume. He has never played with a good QB (Ben Roethlisberger was on his last leg by then), but he has remained fantasy-relevant on a points-per-game basis. We have dismissed Young too quickly. He has a chance to be the best QB that Johnson has played with.

We just need a healthy season from Johnson—he is one of the best values on the board in fantasy drafts. You get to draft him as a WR4 when he offers WR3 potential, even if Young doesn't improve. If Young does improve, you have a WR2.

3. Adonai Mitchell should rank closer to Ladd McConkey

Mitchell has an 86% route participation rate, 22% target share and 21% air yards share with Anthony Richardson on the field this preseason. 

 

He has resided from the slot with Josh Downs (high-ankle sprain) out of action. Mitchell has kicked outside in 12 personnel looks, bumping Alec Pierce off the field, which is a good sign for his playing time once Downs returns.

Mitchell was an inconsistent performer in college, pushing him to Round 2 in the NFL Draft, but his big-play ability is not in question. Might Josh Downs steal his thunder upon return? That is possible, but we don't need to worry so much about the certainty of the pecking order – just like drafters are ignoring that Ladd McConkey isn't playing in two WR sets this preseason.

We are betting on talented players making the most of their opportunity. It won't always pan out, but we should actively target players with a chance to prove that early in the season. Remember, once the season starts, chaos ensues. Injuries and things out of our control will reshape the fantasy landscape in a way none would have thought possible. It happens every year.

That makes Mitchell a great upside target, even though the Colts can't likely support more than two receivers in fantasy. I am much higher than the consensus ranks on Mitchell.

4. GTFOH Pat Freiermuth

Freiermuth has the talent profile to challenge for a low-end TE1 season, but Arthur Smith is going to Arthur Smith, y'all.

Muth posted a 60% route participation with the starters this preseason, with Darnell Washington and MyCole Pruitt rotating heavily. Smith loves to utilize multiple personnel groupings, and right now, Freiermuth isn't getting reps in formations using 12 and 21. This situation would be alarming even if he had a 100% snap rate in 11 personnel.

Life is just too short to deal with this sort of shit. What is the point in selecting a part-time TE on a run-first team with QB questions? Even if all this preseason stuff is a smoke screen, Freiermuth isn't a pick that will burn us if he plays a full-time role. Because of that, I have dropped him out of the top 150 and would take Taysom Hill over him in formats where he is TE-eligible. Better yet, just draft a top-12 TE and be done with it.

5. We like Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but chill out people

Jaxon Smith-Njigba garnered two targets that he turned into two receptions for 32 yards in Week 3 with the starters. While it was nice to see JSN untethered from the line of scrimmage (14.5 aDOT), he gained little separation against the Browns' second-string nickel back on his best play of the night. 

It was a great play, but let's be honest, that was just an absolute seed from Geno Smith. Nice catch by JSN, but I want to see more from him as a separator after a dud Year 1 that we mostly blamed his coordinator and an injury for. Despite the absence of Tyler Lockett, JSN played 100% from the slot, with Jake Bobo starting wide.

Smith-Njigba offers some pretty sweet value on many sites – he goes outside the top 100 picks on ESPN, Sleeper and Yahoo – making him a target of mine.

JSN is a young WR with Round 1 NFL Draft capital behind a deteriorating WR in Lockett, who could hit a cliff this season. However, we didn't learn anything new about his role in Week 3 that should boost him further up draft boards.

6. Tank Bigsby is the clear-cut No. 2 in Jacksonville

There is no need for many words here – Bigsby was the only other back to play with the starters this preseason for the Jaguars. He won't likely offer stand-alone value, but the Jaguars are a competent offense, and Bigsby will immediately become a top-24 option if Travis Etienne misses any time.

Bigsby has climbed from undrafted status to inside my top 170 players and is an excellent late-round handcuff target in large leagues.

7. The Titans' backfield preseason utilization is misleading

On the surface, Tony Pollard is the 1A for the Titans based on utilization with the starters this preseason.

  • Tony Pollard: 58% snaps, 50% rush attempts, 50% route participation rate
  • Tyjae Spears: 42% snaps, 33% rush attempts, 43% route participation rate

However, much of this was luck-driven. Pollard got the benefit of playing on longer drives than Spears. Pollard gets a slight edge because he got the first drive in both games with the starters, but both backs played two drives in those contests. Additionally, both backs rotated to steal a few snaps from their backfield counterpart in those drives.

Pollard gets a slight nod in my rankings, but I expect a close split in Tennessee, given the duo's interchangeable skillsets. Who has the best utilization during the season could ebb and flow based on drive length or a hot-hand approach.

8. Jerome Ford has company while Nick Chubb is on the PUP

While the Browns rested many starters in Week 3, they played Jerome Ford and D'Onta Foreman with Jameis Winston. Ford started the game and handled 53% of the snaps, while Foreman played 47%.

The week before, we also saw a tandem approach with Foreman stealing the short-yardage work ala Kareem Hunt last season. It is also worth noting that Pierre Strong didn't play in Week 3 due to a rib injury but has also been in the mix with the starters in practice and the preseason games.

With Nick Chubb out for at least four games on the PUP, Ford makes a nice target for drafters looking for early-season points out of their RB position. However, the data tells us we should expect a committee approach, which could limit Ford's upside.

In a vacuum, I prefer Chuba Hubbard, who goes multiple rounds later in drafts. Hubbard has a better shot at dominating touches early in the year, and the Panthers made drastic upgrades to their offensive line, offsetting some of my concerns about lack of operating room.

9. Kimani Vidal is the RB3 favorite for the Chargers

The Chargers rested all their starters and primary backups in Week 3. Kimani Vidal was the most notable player who got the evening off. Vidal might have the No. 3 role locked down, given that Jaret Patterson and Isaiah Spiller played.

When you pair this with Vidal working ahead of those backs and looking good in Week 2 of the preseason, all signs point to Vidal as the RB3 for the Chargers. We know Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman will pound the rock behind one of the best offensive lines in the league. We also know that Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins have question marks.

Vidal is a great late-round dart in larger leagues when you add it all up. Keep this man on your waiver-wire speed dial list if you play in a smaller format.

10. Is Bill Belichick still pulling the strings in New England?

Okay, this question is mostly a joke. But seriously, what is up with the pecking order on this depth chart?

Maybe the Patriots want to protect Drake Maye due to offensive line concerns, but Jacoby Brissett looks like a sitting duck. Let's get the rookie on the field now unless this front office thinks they have the intestinal fortitude to bench Maye nearly all season (I highly doubt it). The fans in New England will be foaming at the mouth for Maye by Week 2. Maye offers the most arm talent and the escapability to survive this rag-tag line, so let's see what he can do sooner rather than later.

And what about these WRs? This team is STILL running K.J. Osborn and Tyquan Thornton out there on the first drive. Look, these are NFL players. I am not an NFL player. But these two WRs are not target earners – period. Full stop. I am fading the preseason trends for the Patriots.

On a positive note, Ja'Lynn Polk worked with the starters more in practice last week and rotated into the game on the second drive with the starters still playing. Polk remains the team's best hope at WR, along with DeMario Douglas, who is the starting slot option.

Those are the only two Patriot WRs worth taking late in drafts, but Javon Baker could quickly push past Thornton and become a waiver-wire option for us to consider in deep leagues.