You: It's entirely too early to rank and tier QBs ahead of the 2025 season.

Me: So what?

Presenting: My way-too-early breakdown of the *fantasy* QB landscape ahead of next season. As always: It's a great day to be great.

Tier 1: Dual-threat aliens

QB1: Ravens QB Lamar Jackson

One cool stat: Lamar is responsible for two of the top-six best fantasy seasons by a QB in NFL history (2019 and 2024).

Offseason storyline to watch: The addition of OC Todd Monken has certainly helped the Ravens' upside through the air, as Jackson managed to rack up the third-most fantasy points from purely passing production behind only Joe Burrow and Baker Mayfield in 2024. The potential departure of Monken during the coaching carousel wouldn't be great news for projecting more of the same aerial success in 2025 and beyond.

QB2: Bills QB Josh Allen

One cool stat: All Allen has done in his short career is average the most fantasy points per game (22.2) by any QB … ever.

Offseason storyline to watch: Like Jackson, Allen owes at least some of his high-end passing success to his offensive coordinator (Joe Brady), who is also widely considered a legit head coaching candidate. Also like Jackson, it's unlikely we'd be making major ranking drops simply due to an OC change, but the added uncertainty wouldn't help.

QB3: Commanders QB Jayden Daniels

One cool stat: Only four QBs have scored at least 20 fantasy points per game as a rookie in NFL history (min. 8 starts):

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Jan 12, 2025; Tampa, Florida, USA; Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels (5) throws during the fourth quarter of a NFC wild card playoff against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

Offseason storyline to watch: The main allure for Daniels could actually be a boost: What pass-game options will the Commanders add around Terry McLaurin? Washington has the league's third-most effective cap space entering the 2025 offseason (per Over The Cap); an overall QB1 season could look more realistic than ever should the team manage to add someone like Tee Higgins and make a splash in the draft.

QB4: Eagles QB Jalen Hurts

One cool stat: Hurts owns three of the position's top seven seasons in fantasy points from purely rushing production in the Super Bowl era.

Offseason storyline to watch: Don't expect his standing as one of the game's best fantasy producers to go anywhere … unless the Tush Push is ever outright banned (unlikely). It's fair to be a bit put off by some of Hurts's passing performances from 2024; just realize the Eagles still have 255 million reasons why he'll remain the team's unquestioned franchise QB.

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Tier 2: Top-tier passing phenoms

QB5: Bengals QB Joe Burrow

One cool stat: The Bengals' +7% dropback rate over expected easily led the league in 2024.

Offseason storyline to watch: Nobody is debating Burrow's status as an elite QB, although getting to throw the ball to Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins certainly helps matters. The potential for either to hold out, or the latter WR to straight up take his talents elsewhere in free agency, could warrant some enhanced skepticism for the overall upside of this passing game.

QB6: Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes

One cool stat: Mahomes ranked sixth in passing TDs (20) and fourth in passing yards (2,539) during Weeks 8 to 17 last season.

Offseason storyline to watch: Mahomes never actually got the chance to play with his top three WRs, which was what a lot of his preseason bounce-back propaganda was based on. Reminder: Mahomes averaged 20-plus fantasy points per game in each of the 2018-2022 seasons, finishing as a top-six fantasy signal-caller every year along the way. Perhaps better luck from the Injury Gods in 2025 will help get Mahomes back to pre-2023 levels of production in fantasy land.

Tier 3: Great passers with some mobility

QB7: Chargers QB Justin Herbert

One cool stat: The other biggest concern here entering 2024 was the potential for Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman to run the ball to their heart's desire. In reality, Herbert and the offense posted a more than respectable +2% dropback rate over expected (tied for seventh!) once he was actually healthy following the team's Week 5 bye.

Offseason storyline to watch: This was a mediocre-to-bad supporting cast in 2024; additions to the offensive line as well as WR and TE rooms should help produce bigger and better things in 2025, and the Chargers have the sixth-most effective cap space to help plug the holes.

QB8: 49ers QB Brock Purdy

One cool stat: Since 2022, Purdy ranks first in EPA per dropback (+0.254) and seventh in completion percentage over expected (+3%) among 49 qualified QBs.

Offseason storyline to watch: Last season Purdy managed to average the league's third-most yards per attempt even with major injuries to Brandon Aiyuk and Christian McCaffrey along with an uncharacteristically meh year from Deebo Samuel and no Trent Williams down the stretch. Kudos to Kyle Shanahan for helping keep the system running so well, but the potential for this supporting cast to be a bit less elite on paper than usual isn't ideal.

QB9: Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield

One cool stat: Mayfield leads the NFL in passing TDs (77) since Week 1, 2023 … and interceptions (28).

Offseason storyline to watch: Mayfield should once again be equipped with one of the game's best play-callers in Liam Coen as well as most people's idea of a true high-end supporting cast, although the former could be swayed by a potential head coaching offer, and latter is at least in some question with free agent Chris Godwin coming off a dislocated ankle as well as Mike Evans turning 32 next August.

Tier 4: High upside "system" QBs

QB10: Packers QB Jordan Love

One cool stat: Love is the QB6 in EPA per dropback over the past two seasons (including playoffs) behind only Josh Allen, Brock Purdy, Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, and Jared Goff.

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Jan 12, 2025; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) against the Philadelphia Eagles in an NFC wild card game at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

Offseason storyline to watch: Will Green Bay throw the towel in on their "We don't need a true WR1" ideology? Only the Chargers have fewer 2025 dollars devoted to their WR and TE rooms; it might be time to attempt to make a real splash for a high-end pass-catcher.

QB11: Broncos QB Bo Nix

One cool stat: Nix's 18.6 fantasy points per game as a rookie is good for the fifth-highest mark in the Super Bowl era behind only Cam Newton, Justin Herbert, Robert Griffin III, and Jayden Daniels.

Offseason storyline to watch: What sort of improvements could the Broncos have in store for 2025? There really isn't anyone entrenched into the starting offense beyond Courtland Sutton (with all due respect to Marvin Mims); at a minimum, adding one of the draft's high-end TEs would be a fun time (Colston Loveland perhaps?).

Tier 5: They can run!

QB12: Cardinals QB Kyler Murray

One cool stat: Murray ranked second in EPA per dropback (+0.07), sixth in passer rating (94.3), and fourth in completion rate (61%) when under pressure in Weeks 1-9 … but 37th (-0.63), 36th (13.7), and 31st (41.3%) in Weeks 10-18.

Offseason storyline to watch: Obviously Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr. are long-term cogs of this offense, but it'd make sense if the team looks to add extra playmakers at WR to improve over Greg Dortch (RFA) and Michael Wilson. The Cardinals presently have the seventh-fewest dollars devoted to their WR room in 2025.

QB13: Patriots QB Drake Maye

One cool stat: Maye averaged 223 passing yards and 36 rushing yards in 10 complete starts last season. The list of QBs to clear 220 pass and 35 rush yards per game in a single season in the Super Bowl era (min. 8 starts) is littered with some of the game's most fantasy-friendly players that the position has ever seen.

Offseason storyline to watch: Let's get Maye some help in any way, shape, or form and see what happens. If you average every team's PFF rush, receiving, pass blocking, and run blocking grades from last season (everything except passing), the Patriots ranked … dead ass last. With the fifth fewest 2025 dollars devoted to the offense as a whole, New England very much needs help everywhere, except QB!

Tier 6: Baller pocket passers

QB14: Lions QB Jared Goff

One cool stat: Goff is the QB10 in fantasy points per game (17.6) since 2022 thanks to league-high marks in passing TDs (96) and passing yards (13,642)

Offseason storyline to watch: OC Ben Johnson is widely considered the NFL's best play-caller at the moment, but rumors seem to be swirling more than ever that he could be leaving for a head coaching job. It'd be surprising to see a change at OC instantly turn Goff back into the 2020-2021 version of himself, although any major mishap in the continuity department won't be ideal for the NFL's reigning highest-scoring offense.

QB15: Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa

One cool stat: Tua worked as the QB11 in total fantasy points, QB8 in completion percentage over expected, and QB6 in EPA per dropback upon returning from injury in Weeks 8-16.  

Offseason storyline to watch: Is Tyreek Hill actually requesting a trade? Or was that simply post-Week 18 frustration? Retaining Cheetah will help keep WR from becoming a crucial need, allowing the team to focus on upgrading PFF's reigning 15th-ranked offensive line that has two interior starters set to hit unrestricted free agency.

QB16: Cowboys QB Dak Prescott

One cool stat: Dak posted career-worst marks in adjusted yards per attempt (6.4), passer rating (86), and QBR (45.6) during his injury-shortened 2024 campaign.

Offseason storyline to watch: Who exactly will be calling plays in Dallas next season? The return of Kellen Moore would help add credence to the idea that Dak and company should be able to bounce back without too much trouble, but that's hardly a certainty. Overall, Dallas ranked just 22nd in yards per play (5.2) and 18th in points per game (20.5) with Prescott in Weeks 1-9.

QB17: Texans QB C.J. Stroud

One cool stat: Stroud's finish as the QB28 in fantasy points per game (gross) made him easily the biggest faller (-23) from preseason ADP (QB5). Nobody else had a dropoff of more than 14 spots.

CJ Stroud

Jan 11, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) celebrates with tight end Cade Stover (87) after a play during the third quarter against the Los Angeles Chargers in an AFC wild card game at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Offseason storyline to watch: The Houston pass-catchers looked like a huge strength entering 2024, but suddenly that's a pretty big question mark outside of Nico Collins due to brutal injuries to Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell as well as a career-worst season from TE Dalton Schultz. Not ideal for an offense with the league's seventh-most 2025 dollars devoted to its WR and TE rooms.

QB18: Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence

One cool stat: T-Law was just the 19th-ranked QB in raw EPA per play last season, but improves to 13th when adjusting for things like pass protection, drops, and other factors. A similar phenomenon occurred in 2023, when nobody lost more EPA to dropped passes than Lawrence, and he worked as a top-three QB in this same adjusted EPA per play metric.

Offseason storyline to watch: Who will be the next man tasked with leading this offense? So far Lawrence has worked with Urban Meyer and Doug Pederson. Getting someone like Ben Johnson or Liam Coen would obviously be a huge boon to a potential breakout, while it'd be a bit tougher to be overly optimistic about a 2025 leap under, say, Mike McCarthy.

QB19: Vikings QB Sam Darnold

One cool stat: The Vikings as a whole rank fourth in passing yards per game (253) and are tied for third in passing TDs (95) under head coach Kevin O'Connell during the last three seasons.

Offseason storyline to watch: Yes, Darnold's career-best 2024 campaign was heavily aided by Kevin O'Connell's schematic wizardry and the offense's plethora of talented pass-catchers. Also yes, none of those factors look on the verge of changing in 2025, making the reigning QB9 a candidate to again put up all kinds of fantasy-friendly production … if the Vikings indeed turn the offense over to him. The insertion of J.J. McCarthy into the starting lineup would obviously change things; we are discussing 2025 fantasy ranks in January, after all. Still, the moral of the story is clear: Let's make a habit of trusting whoever is working with KOC and Justin Jefferson.

Tier 7: You could imagine

QB20: Colts QB Anthony Richardson

One cool stat: Richardson's career 50.6% completion percentage is the fifth-lowest mark among 210 QBs with 300-plus pass attempts since 2000. This is NOT good company.

Offseason storyline to watch: What sort of affirmation will the Colts give their alleged franchise QB that this is TRULY his job? Clearly owner Jim Irsay isn't the most patient man in the world, making it tough to rationalize chasing Richardson's dual-threat-aided QB1 ceiling when (another) benching could always be right around the corner. That said, QBs with Richardson's sort of rushing volume seldom bust in fantasy land … as long as they, you know, are able to stay on the field.

QB21: Panthers QB Bryce Young

One cool stat: Young's 26 big-time throws were tied with Joe Burrow for the league lead upon getting his job back in Week 8 through the end of the regular season.

Offseason storyline to watch: What sort of additional reinforcements will this team add to the WR and TE rooms? Obviously the Diontae Johnson experiment didn't work out, and Adam Thielen turns 35 in August, leaving the room's future largely in the hands of Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker, who had their moments in 2024, but c'mon. Meanwhile at TE, Tommy Tremble and Ian Thomas are both set to hit unrestricted free agency.

QB22: Bears QB Caleb Williams

One cool stat: Williams' 28.2% pressure-to-sack rate was the second-highest mark in 2024 behind only Will Levis (30.4%). Baker Mayfield (in 2021 and 2022) is the only QB with a worse single-season mark since 2020 with at least 300 dropbacks.

Offseason storyline to watch: A new offensive-minded head coach and quicker processing by Williams would go a long way, but so would improving PFF's reigning 24th ranked offensive line, particularly with both starting guards and C Coleman Shelton all set to hit free agency. Overall, nobody has fewer 2025 dollars presently allocated to the offensive line than the Bears. Not great!

QB23: Falcons QB Michael Penix

One cool stat: Penix's completion percentage over expected (-4.4%) was the sixth-lowest mark in the NFL among 47 qualified QBs, although the highs were certainly very cool!

Offseason storyline to watch: What exactly are the Falcons going to do about Kirk Cousins? It seems impossible that Penix won't be given a full leash and chance to lead this offense for years to come, but then again, not many backups boast $180 million contracts. Ultimately, Penix is locked in with one of the game's better supporting casts and should get to grow in year two in Zac Robinson's offense. Stock up!

Tier 8: Old but maybe not washed

QB24: Seahawks QB Geno Smith

One cool stat: Smith ranks *first* among 49 qualified QBs in completion percentage over expected (+4.7%) since taking over the Seahawks' starting job in 2022.

Offseason storyline to watch: Will the Seahawks bring in meaningful competition at QB? It seemed like Sam Howell was maybe supposed to be that guy, but that seems increasingly unlikely. Whether it's a rookie or someone like Jameis Winston, Smith could be a major riser here should he strengthen his stranglehold on the starting job between now and August.

QB25: Rams QB Matthew Stafford

One cool stat: Stafford was the QB26 in EPA per dropback (-0.037) in Weeks 1-7 with the offense all kinds of banged up, but the QB10 (+0.174) in Weeks 8-Wild Card upon Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp returning to the starting lineup.

Offseason storyline to watch: Stafford restructured his contract last July, effectively turning his deal into a one-year stint by giving up many 2025 guarantees. Perhaps this season's NFC West crown and Wild Card victory will inspire Sean McVay and the front office to run things back again in 2025, which could vault Stafford up into the top 20.

QB26: Steelers QB Russell Wilson

One cool stat: The moon ball really was back in action for Russ: Nobody had a higher passer rating (126.3) or averaged more yards per attempt (16.1) on passes thrown at least 20 yards downfield in 2024 (including playoffs).

Offseason storyline to watch: It's not a given that Wilson (a free agent) will be back under center in Pittsburgh next season, although his performance down the stretch certainly did seem to prove that he's still got some good ball in him. The lack of rushing upside these days and presence of run-first OC Arthur Smith likely wouldn't result in too big of a jump up the ranks either way, but there would at least be more desire to throw a late-round dart here.

QB27: Saints QB Derek Carr

One cool stat: Carr was actually the QB8 in adjusted EPA when accounting for things like drops and offensive line performance. 

Offseason storyline to watch: Carr is on the record stating he will not take a pay cut to remain with the Saints, which might be a problem considering New Orleans would be forced to swallow $21.5 million in dead money with a post-June 1 cut. Dead last in effective cap space ahead of next season, this currently bad supporting cast also doesn't have much of a chance of improving in a meaningful way between now and Week 1. However, if you choose to just be blissfully ignorant to all that, the Saints are in a great place! Alright!

Also note:

  • The Browns, Raiders, Jets, Giants, and Titans are the five teams currently without a QB in this list. Shocking but true: None of the current options on their respective rosters would crack the top 25.
  • The biggest free agents to watch: Sam Darnold, Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, Daniel Jones, and Jameis Winston.
  • At first glance the rookie class doesn't look to be overly dynamic on the ground, although Jaxson Dart (34 rush yards per game) was certainly far more productive than both Cam Ward (10.7) and Shedeur Sanders (-4.8).
  • Will Aaron Rodgers retire? The man certainly didn't play at an MVP level in 2024, although his standing as the QB21 in EPA per dropback reflects the reality that we aren't exactly looking at one of the league's worst QBs. Obviously, he wouldn't be shooting up the ranks with a return to the Jets or trip out west to the Raiders, but his presence would probably be better for the team's pass-catchers than most other options out there.

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