Week 10 Fantasy Football Injury News: AJ Brown, Trevor Lawrence, Christian McCaffrey, and More
Chris Allen and Jorge Martin focus on the NFL injuries impacting fantasy football in Week 10.
Injuries are impacting not only starting players, but also teammates. Ask fantasy managers with players on the Cowboys, Jaguars, and Saints, just to name a few. We're here to get into how fantasy managers can attack these injuries for fantasy success this week.
Quarterbacks
Dak Prescott (hand/hamstring): Prescott has already been ruled out but not yet been placed on IR, which would means the soonest he could return to the field would be Week 14. Cooper Rush is starting in his place, though don’t rule out the possibility that Trey Lance could see some action during Prescott’s absence.
The only players who are startable in fantasy for Dallas are CeeDee Lamb (more on him below) and Jake Ferguson. Lamb managers can look to 2022, when Rush started five games for an injured Prescott. During those games Lamb caught 5 or more balls in each, and hit at least 68 receiving yards in four of those matchups. Lamb may not have many games with 10 catches, 150 yards and a pair of touchdowns, but his production should not mirror that of Tyreek Hill when Tua Tagovailoa was out earlier this season. Hill managed only one game out of five above 40 receiving yards playing with backup QBs.
Trevor Lawrence (shoulder): Lawrence coming out of the Jacksonville’s Week 9 loss with a left shoulder injury only adds injury to insult. The Jaguars have two wins on the season, and their franchise QB (who they named the stadium after!) may be out for the season. With the team likely to move on from HC Doug Pederson, giving their star player time to heal makes sense. But we still have Jaguars' players to consider for Week 10.
Mac Jones is in line to start for Lawrence in his absence. The last time we saw Jones in a starting role, he was throwing interceptions to the Giants. He was dead last in EPA per DB amongst all starters when pressured. And facing DC Brian Flores' 9th-ranked defense in pressure rate isn't a recipe for success. Evan Engram stands as the only viable fantasy start as his target share ballooned to 34.0% with Christian Kirk out and BrIan Thomas Jr. battling injury. With waning confidence around the offensive playcalling, a downgrade at QB puts everyone at risk for fantasy production.
Patrick Mahomes (ankle): NFL fans worldwide held their collective breath on Monday Night Football when Mahomes limped off the field after an apparent non-contact injury. The minds of many raced to the worst-case scenario. But proving that Mahomes is borderline alien, he did not miss a series and finished off a game with 291 yards and 3 TDs. That was good for QB4 on the week.
Mahomes may be related to Wolverine or Deadpool, because on Wednesday he was back on the practice field as a full participant. That should alleviate concerns for him. The Broncos are on deck, and they just got lambasted by Lamar Jackson for 280 yards and 3 TDs. Prior to that they gave up more than a touchdown pass in one week and no more than 237 yards. Mahomes is the QB13 entering this home contest.
Baker Mayfield (toe): Mayfield has yet to practice this week, but beat reports indicate he's been getting reps during the team's walkthroughs. While we'd prefer to see the QB2 in total fantasy points perfectly healthy, OC Liam Cohen doesn't have any concerns about Mayfield's availability for Sunday.
Mayfield is still posting top-12 marks in EPA per DB and has an above-average passing success rate without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin on the field. Even when defenders break through the line, Mayfield has layered throws to his TEs and RBs, generating the third-highest passing success rate over the last two weeks. And against the 49ers' defense (fresh off their bye), Mayfield's high-end QB2 status will depend on Cade Otton and Rachaad White.
Running Backs
Christian McCaffrey (Achilles): CMC started to practice last week during the bye, and has logged LP designations the first two days of practice this week. Dr. Edwin Porras pointed out that while these injuries could flare up even after a player returns to the field, it is with workload management that teams can help players avoid a setback. “I wouldn’t be shocked if we didn’t see workhorse McCaffrey for the rest of 2024,” Porras said.
However, short of having a starting roster with Derrick Henry and Joe Mixon in RB slots, fantasy managers are firing up CMC. The 2023 top overall player in fantasy could still make an impact with 10-15 touches, and could especially do damage against a Buccaneers defense allowing nearly 48 receiving yards a game to running backs (third most in the league). Fantasy managers holding onto McCaffrey this long didn’t do it to sit him when he first became active.
Jonathon Brooks (knee): The rookie has been cleared off the injured list and could make his NFL debut this week in Germany against the Giants. This is almost a year after he had surgery to repair a torn ACL. Porras has mentioned that it is at the 12-month mark where the knee is completely recovered following ACL surgery.
The closest comp for Brooks is Todd Gurley, who was injured in his final collegiate game around the same November timeframe as Brooks did. Gurley debuted running the ball 6 times for 9 yards in Week 3 of his 2015 rookie season, then handled 21 touches the following week. Brooks also is playing with Chuba Hubbard, who is the RB9 through nine weeks. Hubbard is not going away anytime soon after signing a four-year, $33.2 million contract extension. Best advice for how to handle Brooks is to keep him on the bench this week, and see how much he plays. Once his usage starts trending upward, he could be a starter in a flex position.
Wide Receivers
Drake London (hip): After making a spectacular grab in the end zone that resulted in a hip pointer, London went LP-LP the first two days of practice this week. These injuries can be painful, but the return to even a limited practice is a good sign of things to come for him.
Facing the Saints could be a great matchup for London, as New Orleans is giving up the 5th-most receiving yards to the WR position. And ace CB Marshon Lattimore just got traded. If London is active, he could be in for a good game in New Orleans.
Chris Olave (head): After suffering his fifth documented concussion from college to the pros, Olave has been away from the team seeking advice on his next steps. Typically, we'd advocate a "next-man-up" approach and roster the next WR on the Saints, but Rashid Shaheed is on IR and Cedrick Wilson Jr. mustered only 34 yards (on a measly 3 targets) against the Panthers' secondary. Similar to the Buccaneers, New Orleans turned to its TEs and RB without any reliable WRs to target. Taysom Hill (5 targets) and Juwan Johnson (2) combined for 82 yards, and, of course, Hill got into the end zone as a rusher. Even in a neutral matchup against the Falcons, starting any of the WRs connected to Derek Carr doesn't provide a floor or ceiling. But if you can add Johnson, he belongs in the TE2 discussion moving forward.
CeeDee Lamb (shoulder): Coming in the same game when Prescott was injured, Lamb’s shoulder injury felt like salt poured on a wound. Piggybacking on the analysis from above, Lamb was the consensus 1.02 pick for a reason. He’s one the elite talents among all the NFL’s skill position players. There’s no way fantasy managers can afford to sit him. While there may not be many games with triple-digit yardage totals, Lamb is going to be Rush’s primary target most plays. He should be able to get by with volume to stay in the WR1 mix.
Amari Cooper (wrist) and Keon Coleman (wrist): Cooper began the week with a pair of limited practices, a good sign after he sat out last game recovering from an injured wrist. The Bills may need him, as Coleman has gone DNP-DNP the first two practice sessions amid talk that he might miss multiple weeks of action.
Cooper ran a route on 66% of snaps, getting targeted 11% of the time. If Coleman is out, Cooper’s main competition for targets may be Khalil Shakir. His route rate could grow from 61% in Week 8 up to where Coleman’s 73% mark was last week. After the Colts allowed a combined 575 passing yards in the past two games, Josh Allen must be salivating at playing indoors against a porous pass defense with a top talent like Cooper as a primary target. The Bills have a dropback rate over 60% in each of the past two weeks, as they are becoming more pass happy.
A.J. Brown (knee): Brown suffered an MCL strain that was feared to be a multi-week injury at first. “What you see with these MCL strains, if they are mild, you don’t see a lot of guys miss time,” Porras said. An average MCL strain could mean missing two weeks, though early talk is that this is a milder strain.
“It looks like we dodged a 4-to-6-week absence, based on the reports,” Porras added about the star wideout. Brown was limited in Wednesday’s practice before fully practicing on Thursday, so barring setbacks he should be on the field in Dallas on Sunday. The Cowboys just surrendered 3 TDs on 11 WR receptions Sunday, with Darnell Mooney catching 5 passes for 88 yards. The way Jalen Hurts has been playing—the Eagles have scored 93 points in the past three games and Hurts has finished no lower than QB4 in any of those games—fantasy managers should gladly put Brown and DeVonta Smith in their starting lineups. Smith is dealing with a hamstring injury, so monitor his practice reps as well. He was limited on Thursday after going DNP the previous day. Friday update to follow.
Darius Slayton (concussion): HC Brian Daboll indicated Slayton wouldn't make the trip to Germany and will likely be inactive for Week 10. Sophomore Jalin Hyatt should see more snaps, but the fantasy interest should be elsewhere.
Malik Nabers has seen an increase in target share every week since his return from the concussion protocol. However, TE Theo Johnson has been quietly amassing looks from Daniel Jones, too. He hit a season-high 24.0% target share in Week 9, culminating in his first TD. Since the Giants get to face the Panthers (giving up a league-high 17.6 PPR PPG to TEs), Nabers, Johnson, and Wan'Dale Robinson (for short-area targets) should be on our radars for Week 10.
Nico Collins (hamstring): So, let me see if I get this straight. Collins didn't suffer any setbacks and is ready to go. But, apparently, he's not ready yet. The prevailing wisdom is Houston can still vie for a playoff spot if they stay atop the division. So, the passing game falls back on the shoulders of Tank Dell. Dell (finally) saw season highs in target share and slot rate. With C.J. Stroud consistently under pressure, sending Dell on more crossing routes allowed Stroud to connect with his best (healthy) pass catcher. Dalton Schultz's aDOT jumped to 16.4 yards last week, and the WR trio of Robert Woods, John Metchie, and Xavier Hutchinson all functioned as WR3s (11.0% target share or less for all three). So, until Collins returns to practice, the only Texans’ starting options are Dell and Joe Mixon.
Tight Ends
Erick All (knee): Injuries continue to define Bengals’ season as they lost yet another key weapon for the year. Erick All was part of the reason the Bengals had shifted to more 12 personnel. The hybrid TE ranked 14th in PFF's pass-blocking grade without a single pressure allowed through nine games. While All didn't have a consistent receiving role, his blocking ability and capability of getting out on routes allowed the Bengals to be more versatile in their playcalling. Now, we're back to the old days. Expect more three-receiver sets with Mike Gesicki operating as the Tee Higgins replacement (19.9% target share in games without Higgins) and Jermaine Burton working downfield. Either may be tough to trust from a talent standpoint, but with Joe Burrow throwing you the ball, anything's possible.