It is time to set our lineups for the week, and with that in mind, let's follow the data to analyze some of the biggest risers and fallers in the Week 10 fantasy football rankings to help you make those critical start-sit decisions.

Risers In The Week 10 Fantasy Football Rankings

Brock Purdy | QB | 49ers

Despite missing multiple superstar weapons for different stretches, Purdy has averaged the fifth-most passing yards per game (263). This week, we could see the healthiest version of the 49ers offense in a long time. After a much-needed bye week, San Francisco could get Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and Jauan Jennings back.

Facing a Buccaneers defense that allows the third-most fantasy points per game through the air, at 19.0 points per game, should lead to good things. Tampa Bay allows the third-most passing yards (274) and second-most TDs per game, leading to the second-highest fantasy boost (four points per game) for opposing QBs. The bookmakers are also bullish on the red and gell; they carried the second-highest team total (27.8) in Week 10.

Purdy UPGRADES to mid-range QB1 territory.

QB Rapid Fire: Upgrades & Pending News

  • Sam Darnold | Vikings: Darnold is a mid-range QB1 in our ranks for the third consecutive game. He faces a Jaguars defense consenting to the No. 1 fantasy boost for QBs at 6.4 points per game. Darnold has averaged 263 yards and two passing TDs since the bye, crushing beatable secondaries. Darnold is my QB6.
     
  • Matthew Stafford | Rams: Stafford didn't get the benefit of another full Puka Nacua (ejection) plus Cooper Kupp game in Week 9, but he posted his second-best fantasy outing of the season. Over the last two games with improved weapons, Stafford has averaged 21.8 points. The Dolphins look like a tough matchup on paper, allowing only 170 passing yards per game, but that is misleading. Miami trailed early and often in games without Tua Tagovailoa, allowing opponents to take their foot off the gas. Bookmakers love the Rams this weekend, and so should you–they carry the third-highest team total (26.8)—Stafford UPGRADES to borderline QB1 territory.

Aaron Jones | RB | Vikings

Since the Week 6 bye, Minnesota has turned to Jones as its workhorse. Over that span, his underlying utilization data has been astronomical.

  • Snaps: 81% (elite)
  • Attempts: 82% (elite)
  • Attempts inside the five-yard line: 100% (elite)
  • Routes: 64% (great)
  • Targets: 11% (good)
  • Two-minute offense snaps: 100% (elite)

He has averaged 14.8 fantasy points with an 8.3 Utilization Score. Those are solid, but this man is DUE FOR AN ERUPTION GAME, and the Jaguars might be the team that will set him off. Jacksonville has provided the fourth-best fantasy boost to the running back position at 4.4 points per contest.

A workhorse back on a high-quality offense (sixth-highest team total) as five-point favorites = SMASH PLAY. Jones UPGRADES to mid-range RB1 status.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. | RB | Giants

Tracy has held onto the starting role in New York since Devin Singletary's return from injury with a 65% snap share. Over that three-game span, the rookie has a 7.0 Utilization Score, making him one of the biggest Utilization Score movers over the last four weeks.

Historically, backs with similar Utilization Scores have typically finished the season as RB2s in fantasy.

  • RB1 to RB12: 22%
  • RB13 to RB24: 53%
  • RB25 to RB36: 26%

Our rankers have Tracy as a mid-range RB2 this weekend, but there is room for more. The Panthers have sanctioned a league-leading 7.9-point fantasy boost to the RB position.

The Giants are five-point favorites this weekend, and Tracy is probably too low in our ranks.

Tracy UPGRADES to mid-range RB2 status but offers RB1 upside.

RB Rapid Fire: Upgrades & Pending News 

  • Christian McCaffrey | 49ers: McCaffrey returned to practice this week and could make his season debut against Tampa Bay this weekend. CMC projects for a lighter rushing workload than usual (49% of attempts) but plenty of utilization in the passing game (65% route participation) thanks to his unique skillset and the 49ers not having Brandon Aiyuk. However, this is just a guess. We could see a larger or smaller workload. It isn't something we can predict, so we just embrace the potential variance—you are likely starting him no matter what! McCaffrey is a high-end RB2.
     
  • D'Andre Swift | Bears: Swift has an 8.4 Utilization Score, averaging 18.3 fantasy points over the last four games. The Bears offense has been erratic, but Swift has managed to stay on track thanks to a 68% rush share and 11% target share. Chicago is a seven-point favorite over a Patriots defense that has fueled the second-largest fantasy boost to the RB position at 4.9 points per game. Swift UPGRADES to low-end RB1 territory.
     
  • James Cook | Bills: Cook is sharing a little more of the backfield lately, but he still has a 58% rush share and 48% route participation rate in an improving offense. The Colts allow the second-most rushing yards (150) per game and utilize zone coverage the fourth-most. We often see more targets to the backfield against zone-heavy defenses, which is a plus. Cook is a mid-range RB2 but offers high-end RB1 upside.
     
  • Chase Brown | Bengals: Brown erupted for 27 points last weekend against the Raiders in a full-time role. The Bengals added Khalil Herbert at the trade deadline, but it will be tough for him to learn the offense in time for a Thursday night tilt against the Ravens. Baltimore has held opponents to the third-fewest yards per game on the ground (76), limiting RB rooms to 2.2 points below their season average. It is a tough matchup, but Brown still lands in the risers section thanks to a massive role. Brown UPGRADES to mid-range RB2 status.
     
  • Austin Ekeler | Commanders: Brian Robinson (hamstring) didn't play last week, and the Commanders deployed a three-headed committee. However, Ekeler did hold a slight lead in opportunities, so he would get a small upgrade if Robinson couldn't play. The Steelers allow the fifth-fewest yards per game on the ground (91), but they have been a neutral fantasy matchup against the position overall. Ekeler is a low-end RB3 but would upgrade to high-end RB3 territory if Robinson can't play.

Zay Flowers | WR | Ravens

Flowers has averaged 18.6 points over the last four games with a 7.9 Utilization Score. Over that span, he has a 29% target share and 33% air yards share.

That second part is the big development with the Ravens showing a willingness to let Flowers work downfield more often.

Of course, the other huge factor is Lamar Jackson's play. The MVP front-runner has thrown for 280 yards or more in five straight games, averaging 10.3 yards per attempt. The Ravens have the best offense in the NFL, and Flowers is a centerpiece.

Baltimore carries a gaudy 29.5-point team total as six-point favorites against the Bengals, who are also running hot with three wins in their last four games. Joe Burrow lit up the hapless Ravens secondary for 392 yards and 5 TDs in a shootout where Baltimore narrowly escaped with a three-point victory (41-38).

Flowers is a SMASH PLAY and UPGRADES to low-end WR1 territory as my WR10.

Davante Adams | WR | Jets

Adams has a 27% target share in his first three games with the Jets. Despite the history between Aaron Rodgers, that is impressive. While the other traded wide receivers are taking time to acclimate, Adams has hit the ground running. 

Garrett Wilson holds an edge over Adams, but this is a highly consolidated offense where both players should continue to see plenty of opportunities.

The Cardinals allow the seventh-most fantasy points per game (29.1) to opposing pass catchers, and despite their win-loss record, the Jets have morphed into a viable passing unit. Over their last five outings, Aaron Rodgers averaged 252 yards and two passing TDs.

Adams is a high-end WR2 with big-boom WR1 upside against Arizona.

WR Rapid Fire: Upgrades & Pending News

  • Nico Collins | Texans: Collins could be activated for a matchup with the Lions this weekend after passing all the tests for his injured hamstring. Collins boasts the second-highest Utilization Score (8.9) for a wide receiver despite missing half of a game, hurting his score. The fourth-year WR had a 9.8 Utilization Score, averaging 22.7 fantasy points in four healthy starts. If Collins plays, he is a must-start and UPGRADES to mid-range WR1 territory.
     
  • Deebo Samuel | 49ers: Samuel injured his oblique before the bye week, so we will have to keep an eye on his status. However, he has a choice matchup this weekend against the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay has coughed up the third-most points to pass catchers (35.4). In four games without Brandon Aiyuk since 2020, Samuel has averaged 21.9 points per game with 10 targets per game. If healthy, Samuel UPGRADES to low-end WR1 status.
     
  • Darnell Mooney | Bears: Drake London is day-to-day with a hip pointer. Mooney notched a season-high 39% target share last week, with London out most of the game. The 27-year-old is a mid-range WR2 but will upgrade to the borderline WR1 range if London can't play.
     
  • Brian Thomas | Jaguars: Thomas played through a rib injury last weekend and wasn't very productive. However, if healthy, the rookie has a juicy matchup against a Vikings offense granting the third-largest fantasy boost to the WR position at 6.2 points per game. More targets are up for grabs in an offense without Christian Kirk, and Thomas is a favorite for usurping those looks. Thomas is currently a mid-range WR2, but if he practices in full this week without an injury designation, he will upgrade to borderline WR1 status.
     
  • Jordan Addison | Vikings: Addison is a boom-bust WR4, but we have another combustible matchup where the boom could be in play. The Jaguars have green-lighted the second-largest fantasy boost to the WR position (6.2 points per game). Jacksonville allows 278 passing yards and 2.1 TDs per contest. Justin Jefferson is the target monster in this offense, but Addison is the deep merchant (15.7 aDOT), and it only takes one play to make your fantasy day. Addison is a boom-bust WR4, but the boom could net 100 yards and two TDs.

Dalton Kincaid | TE | Bills

Kincaid has a 24% target share over the last four games and a solid 7.6 Utilization Score. However, the fantasy points haven't followed, with only 9.7 points per game.

 

Essentially, Kincaid is Jaxon Smith-Njigba before his huge breakout game. Like JSN, Kincaid is getting targeted, but mostly on low-aDOT throws. The second-year TE just hasn't been able to find the big plays down the field.

However, the Colts' defense has conceded the third-largest fantasy boost to the TE position per game (3.9). Opposing pass catchers have ripped the Indianapolis secondary for the fifth-most receiving yards (251) and the fourth-most receiving TDs (1.6) per contest. In a game where the Bills carry the fourth-highest team total (26.3), we could finally see a big game from Kincaid.

Kincaid UPGRADES to rejoin the mid-range TE1 group as my TE7 this weekend.

TE Rapid Fire: Upgrades & Pending News

  • Evan Engram | Jaguars: Engram was a disappointment with only 9.5 fantasy points last weekend, but he still registered a monster target share (34%) in the first game without Christian Kirk. This weekend, the Jaguars get a nice matchup against a Vikings defense, allowing the sixth-most points per game to opposing pass catchers (30.5). Engram UPGRADES to borderline high-end TE1 status.
     
  • Mike Gesicki | Bengals: Gesicki has a 7.9 Utilization Score in four games without Tee Higgins—who is expected to miss Thursday night's game. Over that span, he has averaged 15.3 fantasy points in those games with a 19% target share. The Ravens allow the most points per game to opposing pass catchers (38.2), hemorrhaging 302 yards and two TDs per game. If Tee Higgins is inactive, Gesicki is a borderline high-end TE1. If Higgins goes, Gesicki is a low-end TE1 option.
     
  • Mark Andrews | Ravens: Isaiah Likely is out for Thursday night, opening the door for a full-time role for Andrews in a potential shootout against the Bengals. Andrews put up a dud in Week 9 with only 4.6 points but carved out 16.8 points per game from Week 6 to Week 8 on a 65% route participation. Andrews UPGRADES to mid-range TE1 status and offers high-end TE1 upside.

Fallers In The Week 10 Fantasy Football Rankings

Caleb Williams | QB | Bears

Life is just too short to deal with a Jekyll and Hyde type of player in fantasy at the quarterback position. And at this point, we have seen far more lows from Williams than highs despite a plethora of favorable passing matchups.

  • Week 1: QB33
  • Week 2: QB28
  • Week 3: QB11
  • Week 4: QB22
  • Week 5: QB6
  • Week 6: QB1
  • Week 8: QB28
  • Week 9: QB26

Williams has failed to score 12 fantasy points in five of eight games. Sure, at some point, he might be able to string together consistent performances like we saw in Weeks 5 and 6, but until he shows us that, he doesn't belong to be in fantasy lineups.

Williams DOWNGRADES to low-end QB2 status.

Javonte Williams | RB | Broncos

Williams makes this section in consecutive weeks thanks to another tough matchup. The Broncos are 10-point dogs with a lackluster 16-point team total. On top of that, the Chiefs allow the second-fewest rushing yards per game (75) and have held opponents RBs 9.1 points below their season average. They are the toughest out in the league for running backs, and Sean Payton continues to hint at more playing time for Audric Estime. We don't need this headache, y'all.

Williams DOWNGRADES from his usual low-end RB2 status to low-end RB3 material.

Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | Cardinals

Harrison has a substantial target share (23%) and air yards share (42%) for a rookie, but Arizona's passing attack is stuck in reverse. Kyler Murray is averaging only 199 yards and 1.2 TD passes per contest. Murray has failed to reach 165 yards in four of nine starts, with only two games over 260.

The Jets have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game to pass catchers (20.8), but they have been especially tough on wide receivers. New York has held the opposing WR position 2.9 points below their season average.

Harrison DOWNGRADES to mid-range WR3 status.

Rapid Fire Downgrades:

  • Tony Pollard | RB | Titans: The Titans have a 15-point team total as eight-point dogs. The Chargers have held opposing RB rooms to 4.0 points below their season average per game—-making them the fourth-toughest matchup. Pollard is getting most of the touches, so this doesn't make him an auto-bench candidate, but he DOWNGRADES to low-end RB2 status.
     
  • Rico Dowdle | RB | Cowboys: Dowdle popped for 21.7 points last weekend with Ezekiel Elliott out. He handled his most extensive workload of the season and posted an appealing 8.7 Utilization Score. While it would make sense for the Cowboys to give more work to Dowdle moving forward, it isn't a given, and the overall state of the offense is in doubt, with Dak Prescott (hamstring) on IR and CeeDee Lamb nursing an AC joint injury. The Cowboys carry the fourth-lowest team total (17.3) as eight-point underdogs against the third-toughest matchup for RBs. The veteran back might be taking over the Dallas backfield, but this isn't an ideal weekend to jam him into your lineup and find out. Dowdle is a mid-range RB3 with RB5 downside if the team doesn't give him an every-down role.
     
  • Jonathon Brooks | RB | Panthers: Brooks was activated on Wednesday, but his Week 10 status remains in the air. Technically, just getting on the field makes him a riser but I wanted to highlight him in the fallers section because I am not rushing to get him into lineups. We don't know how quickly the Panthers will ramp up Brooks' workload once he is active. The rookie could pay big dividends before the season is over, but with Chuba Hubbard playing well, it is hard to imagine a scenario where he immediately becomes fantasy-viable. The Giants are an enticing RB matchup, allowing 143 yards per game, but Brooks is a mid-range RB4.
     
  • CeeDee Lamb | WR | Cowboys: Dak Prescott is out, and Cooper Rush will start for Dallas. While Prescott hasn't played up to his standards, he was averaging 264 yards per game—well above Rush's career average of 214. Lamb is also dealing with an AC joint that could curtail his playing time and ability if he suits up. The Cowboys carry a lowly 17.3-point team total, and the Eagles have held opposing WR rooms four points below their season average—the fifth-toughest matchup. That is a lot to overcome, even for a superstar—Lamb DOWNGRADES to low-end WR1 status.
     
  • Courtland Sutton | WR | Broncos: Sutton rewarded fantasy managers with 18.1 points last weekend in the best matchup in the NFL against the Ravens. However, he draws the toughest matchup for WRs against the Chiefs this weekend. Kansas City has held opposing WR rooms 7.3 fantasy points below their season average. That is a brutal outlier matchup, and Denver's offense doesn't offer much upside, with the second-lowest team total on the slate at eight points. Sutton DOWNGRADES to the low-end WR3 range.

Sicko Starts Of The Week - Week 10

I want to throw in a few names for all my fellow fantasy managers that are in a SICKO league. If you are in a 12-team league with three starting WRs and two flexes, these are for you! Or you are in a more typical setup but need a name to help get you through injuries; these are for you!

Season: 15 of 32

Sub .500 on the season, maybe I should retire? Nah, sicko plays aren't for the faint of heart. Let's take another swing!

Let's go, you sickos.

Russell Wilson | QB | Steelers 

Wilson is in 4% of starting lineups and is available in 82% of Yahoo leagues.

Wilson threw for 264 yards against a tough Jets pass defense in Week 7 and followed that up with 278 yards against the Giants. George Pickens is playing the old D.K. Metcalf role, and Calvin Austin is doing his best Tyler Lockett imitation as a vertical slot option.

The Commanders' defense has drastically improved since the beginning of the season under Dan Quinn, but they are still a neutral matchup for quarterbacks. Their schedule has also gotten much softer with matchups against Deshaun Watson, Andy Dalton/Bryce Young, Caleb Williams, and Daniel Jones in four of their last five games. Wilson is playing better than all of those right now.

Wilson UPGRADES to borderline QB1 territory.

Jaylen Warren | RB | Steelers 

Warren is in 7% of starting lineups and is available in 55% of Yahoo leagues.

Finally healthy and operating in an offense without a run-first QB, Warren is climbing the ranks. Warren's opportunities have flourished in two games with Russell Wilson under center.

  • Week 7: 15 opportunities (12 attempts and three targets)
  • Week 8: 11 opportunities (eight attempts and three targets)

The third-year back has taken the lead in route participation with 48% versus 34% for Najee Harris and sports a 12% target share. The Commanders are the third-highest-scoring team in the NFL, which could force the Steelers to open up their passing attack.

Warren UPGRADES to mid-range RB3 territory but offers RB2 upside.

Xavier Legette | WR | Panthers

Legette is in under 14% of starting lineups and is available in 67% of Yahoo leagues.

The rookie WR has a 6.8 Utilization Score in two games without Diontae Johnson, which could be enough to push him into the WR3 conversation in the coming weeks. Over that stretch, he has a 22% target share and a 34% air yards share, averaging 13.8 fantasy points.

We could see Adam Thielen return this weekend, which could shake up the pecking order, but Jalen Coker operated primarily in Thielen's role over the last few games. With Jonathan Mingo traded to the Cowboys, there should be plenty of routes for Legette either way.

Legette UPGRADES to mid-range WR4 status but offers WR3 upside.

T.J. Hockenson | TE | Vikings

Hockenson is in 30% of starting lineups.

Hockenson returned to action last weekend with a 60% route participation rate. We don't know how quickly the Vikings will ramp up his playing time, but it isn't too far from the 75% to 80% we see from most top options.

In a favorable matchup against the Jaguars, Hockenson climbs the ranks to TE10.

Brass Balls Bench Of The Week

If you are willing to make big calls, these players could find their way to your bench if you are loaded with other options.

Season: 10 of 12

Apparently, I am much better at being a glass-half-empty kind of guy than a glass-half-full guy. Let's keep those negative vibes rolling!

Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | Cardinals

See the downgrades section