Week 11 Rest of Season Fantasy Football Rankings Updates: George Pickens WR1?
My fantasy football rest-of-season (ROS) rankings provide a comprehensive overview of projected player performances for the season’s remaining games, helping guide you toward making informed decisions regarding trades, waiver wire transactions, and starting lineups.
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Now, there are eight weeks remaining in the NFL regular season, meaning there are likely only seven weeks remaining in your favorite fantasy football league, with Weeks 15-17 reserved for the fantasy playoffs and Week 18 reserved for the sickest of sickos. Half of the 32 NFL franchises have their bye week in the rearview mirror and are looking at the maximum possible seven games between now and fantasy championship Week 17. Those teams are the 49ers, Bears, Browns, Chargers, Chiefs, Cowboys, Dolphins, Eagles, Lions, Packers, Raiders, Rams, Seahawks, Steelers, Titans, and Vikings.
While some of you are focusing on strengthening your roster for a strong playoff push, the likely majority of you are still seeking that playoff berth and must prioritize the next four weeks to make that happen. We’ll cover both scenarios for each of the QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs strictly through a strength of schedule (SOS) lens.
The Best QBs Rest-of-Season In Fantasy Football
The best QBs from a SOS standpoint, with the maximum seven games remaining between Weeks 11-17, are Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert, Russell Wilson, and *checks notes* Will Levis. The Cowboys also made this list, but with Dak Prescott undergoing season-ending surgery, I’m not going to encourage you to rely on Cooper Rush to carry you to fantasy gold.
Is Jalen Hurts The QB1 Rest-of-Season?
If you have Hurts in your league, you’re probably doing okay. He’s really only had one bad game, and following his Week 5 bye, he averaged 28.08 FPPG, trailing only Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow during that stretch. Simply put, you’re not struggling on a decision to start or sit him, but earning a first-round (Week 15) bye would be best best-case scenario since Hurts’ most challenging ROS matchup is that very week, at home against the Steelers.
Upgrade Justin Herbert
Herbert and Wilson are also likely rostered in your league, but there’s league-winning upside here. Herbert had a slower start to his season (11.5 FPPG, Weeks 1-4), but like Hurts, has really kicked it into gear following his Week 5 bye, averaging 18.38 FPPG between Weeks 6-10.
Herbert is looking at the easiest SOS among all “seven games remaining” QBs leading up to the Week 15 fantasy playoffs, and the 4th-easiest between during the playoffs, but has less-than-ideal matchups in two of those playoff weeks—Week 16 against a Broncos team allowing the 7th-fewest FPPG to opposing QBs, and Week 17 against the country against a Patriots team allowing the 12th-fewest. Still, the late-season push through the first round of playoffs could be worth the ride.
Russell Wilson Rises in the Fantasy Football Rankings
Wilson may be the safest ROS QB option outside of Hurts. He is looking at more middling matchups, with the only red flag coming in Week 15 on the road against an Eagles defense that is allowing the 4th-fewest FPPG to opposing QBs this season. Since returning to the field in Week 7, Wilson has won three games, scored seven touchdowns, and logged two top 10 weeks, with his best finish coming in Week 7 against a top-8 Jets defense, where he finished as the fantasy QB3. Here’s to hoping he can limit the sacks (2.67 per game) and provide us with more designed rush attempts (2.33 per game).
Yes … Will Levis Is A Viable QB Streamer
If Wilson doesn’t offer the “danger” you long for, or you are simply left with less-than-ideal options, the Levis-led Titans could be your saving grace. Levis is looking at the 3rd-easiest ROS schedule through Week 17, and the 3rd-easiest fantasy schedule through Weeks 15-17 without any glaring red flags from a matchups point of view.
The only red flag comes in the form of Levis himself. His best fantasy finish came in a losing Week 10 effort against the Chargers, where “garbage time” correlated to fantasy points. If he can find himself in more of these losing situations, Levis could offer a floor that helps elevate you through the playoffs.
Rest-of-Season Fantasy Football RB Updates
The best RBs from an SOS standpoint, with the maximum of seven games remaining between Weeks 11-17, are Kyren Williams, Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, and Kenneth Walker. Honorable mentions to Tony Pollard, Alexander Mattison, Jahmyr Gibbs, and David Montgomery, but all are exposed to timeshares that could be too volatile from a weekly ROS reliability standpoint.
The Chiefs are in an interesting position as well, with the 3rd-easiest RB ROS schedule between Weeks 11-14. Isiah Pacheco is expected to return later this month so it’s interesting to see how the timeshare between him and Kareem Hunt goes.
Is Kyren Williams The ROS RB1?
Williams is a no-brainer. He’s past his bye week and is completely dominating in the team snap and rushing attempt share department. Williams leads all RBs with an 89% snap share (Breece Hall 2nd, 77%) and a 79% rushing share (Chuba Hubbard 2nd, 67%).
He’s looking at the 2nd-easiest RB ROS schedule between Weeks 11-17 and the 2nd-easiest between Weeks 11-14. Simply put, his 8.8 Utilization Score speaks for itself. If he can find success against the Eagles’ top-tier rushing defense in Week 12, it’ll be smooth sailing the rest of the way.
High-End RB1s In Rest-of-Season Fantasy Football Rankings
McCaffrey, Walker, and Barkley also have utilization scores between 8.5 and 8.8. McCaffrey (8.7) only has one game under his belt, but considering he just commanded a 90% snap share and 68% rushing share in his first game back, it’s safe to assume we’ll see more of the same ROS. He’s looking at tougher matchups than the others, but considering he excels in any situation, it really doesn’t matter which RBs his future opponents have faced. They weren’t McCaffrey.
Walker’s 8.8 Utilization Score has him tied with Williams from a usage standpoint, but a lot of that is coming from earlier in the season, Weeks 4-7. Since those games, he’s finished as the PPR RB34 (Week 8) and RB19 (Week 9).
Therefore, it’s important to monitor his upcoming opportunity and productivity trends in the weeks leading up to the Week 15 fantasy playoffs. Between Weeks 11-14, Walker isn’t expected to see any notably tough matchups and is looking at the 8th-easiest RB schedule during that stretch. His fantasy playoffs matchups do get a bit shaky, but it’s nothing crazy. You’re likely going to start him through Week 17 assuming he’s healthy and maintaining similar utilization.
Barkley is in a similar boat as Hurts, with a favorable ROS schedule outside of a tough Week 15 home game against a Steelers defense allowing the 2nd-fewest FPPG to opposing RBs this season.
Ultimately, you must play the best players on the league’s best teams when it matters the most, and with three RB1 finishes on the season, Barkley offers the highest fantasy ceiling among his peers.
The Best WRs Rest-of-Season In Fantasy Football
The best WRs from an SOS standpoint, with the maximum seven games remaining between Weeks 11-17, are surprisingly limited. Beyond George Pickens and Calvin Ridley, all the WRs that are past their bye either don’t see enough consistent utilization or have a QB that isn’t worth betting on. Sure, you’re firing up CeeDee Lamb but only because you must. And as much as I wanted to include Ladd McConkey on this list, Herbert is sharing too much and there isn’t enough reason to trust one Chargers’ pass catcher over another.
The same can’t be said for A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, though, and I would consider both (heck, the entire offense at this point) among the best WR options ROS.
Is George Pickens A League-Winning WR?
Pickens really excelled once Wilson returned under center in Week 7, seeing two top-5 finishes in two of those three games. He hasn’t really seen much consistency this season or even in his career, but he also wasn’t offered much at QB beyond a long stretch with Kenny Pickett. Wilson is far beyond Pickens’ best QB in his career and seeing the two connect so well in limited time together brings a lot of hope.
Since Wilson’s return, Pickens has commanded a 24% targets per route run (TPPR) rate which may not seem noteworthy once you learn Calvin Austin is seeing 22%, but Pickens is averaging nearly two end zone targets a game and over two 3rd & 4th down targets per game.
The fact that Pickens is Wilson’s top target in the most important passing situations is what matters the most. Looking ahead, Pickens has the easiest WR ROS schedule in the weeks leading up to the fantasy playoffs. Unfortunately, outside of a very cushy Week 16 matchup against the Ravens, Pickens doesn’t have the most ideal fantasy playoffs schedule (@PHI, @BAL, vs. KC).
Still, he is entrusted with the most valuable targets on a team with the 8th-best odds to win the Super Bowl and those are the kind of players you want to fill a championship-bound roster with.
Calvin Ridley Gets An Upgrade
Ridley, on the other hand, is catching passes from a different kind of QB. I like Levis, but it’s been a bit worrisome following his development thus far.
While Levis posted a nice game in Week 10 for fantasy purposes (QB10), most of his work came on checkdown passes and in “garbage time” situations. Still, the fact that he can maintain composure and complete 78% of his passes on 33 dropbacks in a losing game means that development is still trending in the right direction.
Ridley has excelled as the leading target following DeAndre Hopkins’ trade to the Chiefs in Week 8. In his three games since, Ridley has seen a 30% TPPR rate, two top 3 finishes, and a 9.3 Utilization Score.
He saw a team-leading nine targets from Levis in Week 10 and considering Pollard and Tyjae Spears saw seven in that same game, could spell promising opportunities in the weeks ahead. This becomes especially promising considering the Titans are looking at the 3rd-easiest WR ROS schedule between Weeks 11-17, the 4th-easiest schedule between Weeks 11-14, and the 4th-easiest schedule between Weeks 15-17.
Simply put, Ridley has the brightest and smoothest road ahead, but it may not matter if Levis can’t take that necessary step forward.
The Eagles Star WRs Are Set To Smash
Lastly, sorry to keep touting an Eagles offense, but we can’t ignore the upside that both Brown and Smith offer against their peers from a ROS standpoint. Despite a run-heavy team style this season, both Brown and Smith are averaging a 20%+ TPPR rate and over 6 targets per game.
While they ultimately cap each other’s upside, they each see enough utilization all over the field on all four downs, including the end zone.
Brown and Smith have the 6th-easiest schedule between Weeks 11-14 and a middling offering between Weeks 15-17 that’s being heavily influenced by that Week 15 matchup against the Steelers.
Tight Ends For Rest-of-Season In Fantasy Football
It probably doesn’t come as a surprise, but there are very few TEs that offer an ideal upside from a ROS standpoint. The cream of the crop includes Brock Bowers with added consideration offered to Will Dissly, who has the friendliest SOS through Week 17 among all TEs by far.
Brock Bowers Is Primed For ROS Success
Bowers’ 8.7 Utilization Score ranks third among all TEs this season (George Kittle, 9.4; Travis Kelce, 9.0)—a welcoming addition to a very unsatisfying position from a fantasy points standpoint.
Even more welcoming, Bowers is looking at the 3rd-easiest TE ROS schedule which is further amplified considering he’s among the elite at his position and those already soft opponents may appear softer for someone of his talent level.
Is Will Dissly A Viable TE Streamer?
With regards to Dissly, the opportunity share for any Chargers pass-catcher is hard to trust seeing how there are six players on that team averaging two or more targets per game. The good news is that his 4.56 targets per game rank second on his team (McConkey, 5.89) and he ranks above all TEs in the league with 150 snaps in TPPR (27%).
If you’re left with limited options at the position, like many of us are, then Dissly could be a sneaky addition for your fantasy team during the back half of the season.
With just four weeks before the fantasy playoffs, it’s important to focus on the matchup trends that emerge from data points found within the SOS table, since they may introduce you to options that otherwise may not make sense.
I understand that you’re still starting guys like Brock Purdy, Joe Mixon, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Travis Kelce because they helped carry your team to where it is today, but just be mindful that each of them has among the most challenging schedules when the wins are the only thing that matters in the fantasy playoffs.
I have ranked nearly 250 more players from a rest-of-season outlook, with most seeing small changes every week as further game data points are entered and the integrity of DvP and SOS tables are strengthened.
Focusing on trends surfacing from the Utilization Report, making savvy waiver wire pickups, and understanding how to optimize your lineups for the fantasy playoffs will set you up for success. Luckily, FantasyLife+ is a fantasy juggernaut, offering all of that and a ridiculous number of other tools and data to help get you there and through it all.
