Week 12 Expert Roundtable: RB Dart Throws, Fantasy Fugazis, and More
In this week's roundtable, we bring in Fantasy Life’s very own Peter Overzet, Dwain McFarland, and Sam Wallace.
Let’s get into it:
Q: It was announced on Monday morning that the New York Giants are now tanking for the 1.01…
AHH, Sorry! Typo!
It was announced on Monday morning that the New York Giants are now starting Tommy DeVito at QB.**
What does this QB change mean for the Giants’ pass catchers moving forward? And do you think the price of chicken cutlets will rise in the near future?
Sam: The mishandling of both Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley will set this franchise back a generation (or more). Regardless, we must turn our attention to what lies in front of us – Tommy DeVito will be back under center this weekend.
Last season, he essentially played five full games and was borderline-serviceable as a fantasy option.
He had seven TDs and just one INT and also averaged 5.4 rushing attempts per game. At the very least, he can't be worse than Jones. As long as DeVito promises to feed Malik Nabers, fantasy managers shouldn't be too concerned.
Pete: Tommy Cutlets becoming your mom's favorite QB and saving Malik Nabers from fantasy purgatory was always part of the 2024 script Roger Goodell penned in his den this past summer. I think he can pepper Nabers back to WR2 status, but all bets are off for everyone else. Sorry, Wan'Dale.
Dwain: The question on everyone's mind is, WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR MALIK NABERS? Here is the bad news: Tommy DeVito averaged only 172 yards and 0.9 TDs in games where he played at least 80% of the snaps last season.
Historically, that sort of QB play has capped fantasy production in a significant way. Since 2011, only 2% of WRs with at least 400 routes have posted a WR1 finish when their team averaged 175 to 199 yards passing per game.
But here is the good news: Daniel Jones threw for only 191 yards per game in the Naber-less offense last season — not much better than DeVito. There is a decent chance that this is only a slight downgrade or a push for Nabers, thanks to his league-leading 36% target share.
The reality of low-end quarterback play caught up with Nabers before this move. He has averaged 12 fantasy points per game with a 7.9 Utilization Score over the last four games. Historical comps with that score have finished as a low-end WR1 54% of the time and notched a WR2 finish 42%. Nabers is a mid-range to high-end WR2 the rest of the way.
Cooterdoodle: I’m ready to be hurt again. *moves Malik Nabers into FLEX*
Q: Speaking of tanking, it seems the New Orleans Saints have decided against it.
As a completely objective third party observer with absolutely no interest in the matter, is Marquez Valdes-Scantling the new Rashid Shaheed? I’m trying to determine my next NFL jersey purchase…
Sam: Marquez Valdes-Scantling has had the most MVS-type games over the last two weeks. He tallied 196 receiving yards and three TDs on just five receptions over Weeks 10 and 11. With a target share of just 15% during that span, I wouldn't bank on that type of production on a weekly basis (especially when the Saints have the ultimate wild card in Taysom Hill).
As a Packers fan who watched MVS boom/bust in Green Bay for several years, he is not someone I am interested in dealing with. Let someone else be left holding the bag. Oh, and don't bother buying the jersey.
Pete: MVS having two big games on like 1.5 total targets is the Lord's way of testing you, Cooterdoodle. He knows one of your biggest weaknesses is purchasing jerseys for speed merchants on the New Orleans Saints and this is going to be one of your toughest tests to date.
Stay strong, put on 69-factor authentication for your credit card. Have an accountability partner. Stare at the graveyard of Shaheed jerseys to re-enforce the cautionary tale. Don't become a prisoner of the moment. That being said, the Saints pro shop is offering 25% off with code CATCH30 right now.
Dwain: As Donnie Brasco once said to Lefty Ruggiero when asked to tell him what a diamond was worth (at least according to Hollywood), “You should give it to somebody who doesn't know any better because that's a FUGAZI.”
We have seen this same song and dance from MVS before — he is a big-play merchant but doesn't draw the necessary targets to consistently succeed in fantasy football. Shaheed led the team with a 25% target share, while MVS is at 11% in three games with the Saints. Run away, Cooterdoodle! Run away.
Cooterdoodle: Look look look look look I hear you. And I pinky promise that I won’t buy his jersey… this week. But if MVS scores after the Saints' BYE, all bets are off, boys! (Have I mentioned that I’m ready to be hurt again?)
Q: I know the trade deadlines have closed in some leagues already, but many of us are still struggling to set a RB lineup through Week 11.
Looking ahead, are there any waiver wire dart throws at RB that you’d be targeting for the purposes of a home run hit through the playoffs? Or should we just live by the age old adage of “you get what you get and you don’t throw a fit”?
Sam: I do appreciate that final phrase but feel I might have just missed that one being a part of my childhood.
Either way, the RB position remains one of high-attrition even in the year 2024. I mean, who would have thought someone like Tyrone Tracy would be a locked-in starter at this point of the season?
It doesn't feel good to say (or type) but someone like Cam Akers is worth looking at if you roster Aaron Jones. Akers has 10+ rushing attempts in consecutive weeks and the Vikings continue to move the ball well on offense. It's prime handcuff season so don't be afraid to lockdown your respective backfields as we near the fantasy playoffs.
Pete: This is the time to snatch up any rookie RBs behind entrenched starters and stash them on your bench for the playoff push. Guys like Blake Corum, Trey Benson, and Jaylen Wright are all one injury away from being big fantasy contributors down the homestretch. This includes guys like Ray Davis and Marshawn Lloyd as well, if you are in deeper leagues. If your leaguemates got bored and tossed any of these names on the wire, make 'em pay.
Dwain: Pete nailed this one, so I will just rank the names he has above. To do this, we want to consider the likelihood that the backup would enter a clear-cut RB1 situation, their talent profile, and the quality of their offense.
- Blake Corum (86% available in Yahoo leagues): He will likely get all the work if Williams goes down and the Rams are an RB1 factory. Due to the projected workload, Corum has the most upside of any name on the list.
- Ray Davis (82%): We have already seen Davis in a game without Cook, and he delivered an 8.3 Utilization Score and 18.2 fantasy points. Ty Johnson took some pass-down work, but Davis had a 60% snap share. Additionally, James Cook hasn't been that efficient despite the fantasy production and we love the Bills offense.
- Trey Benson (73%): Emari Demercado could steal the pass-down work, but unlike Corum, Benson is behind an aging veteran. If things go sideways, they could turn to Benson just to get a look before the 2025 NFL Draft.
- Jaylen Wright (94%): Probably would share time with Raheem Mostert, but has already by-passed the veteran as the No. 2 rushing option over the last two games. Wright has big-play ability and we love the Dolphins offense.
- Marshawn Lloyd (96%): This is the most murky scenario because Matt LaFleur loves to rotate players, and Emanuel Wilson and Chris Brooks have been in the mix behind Josh Jacobs. Still, the Packers have a potent offense, and Lloyd would have a shot to lead a committee and maybe surprise with more.
Q: Sean Payton is getting on my last f*cking nerve.
At least when I start someone like Travis Etienne, I know what I’m going to get. It’s not great, but I’m not getting my hopes up only for them to be crushed like the fantasy managers who started Audric Estime in Week 11.
So is it worth the headache of trying to read tea leaves to figure out which RB will get the work in Denver from week to week? Or can we just cut ties?
Sam: Coach-speak aside, the only RB from this backfield I would be targeting / starting is Javonte Williams. He has 10+ opportunities (rushing attempts & targets) in 9 of 11 games this season. Yes, Sean Payton is trying to galaxy-brain his way through the rest of the season instead of simply playing his best RB but, when push comes to shove, I'm rolling with Williams.
Pete: You have to keep holding Williams and Estime. This offense is humming right now and there will be RB2/FLEX points available. And if one of them were to get hurt, the other could flirt with RB1 status. It's safe to cut ties with Jaleel McLaughlin, though.
Dwain: That Pete guy is pretty sharp. The Broncos are an offense we want to invest in, and outside of Courtland Sutton, the easiest way to do that is by stashing these running backs. However, I do feel your pain, Cooterdoodle. Starting any of them isn't for the faint of heart, so tread lightly. Williams is a low-end RB3, and Estime is an RB5 stash unless we gain near clarity over a multi-game sample.