Ian Hartitz presents Ian's Manifesto for Week 12, a look at bold predictions, streamers, and more for fantasy football success.

And just like that: Week 12 is upon us. Let's break down some ball!

Every week I will be going through 10 key storylines ahead of all the NFL action, focusing on key fantasy-related trends, the week's biggest mismatches, my personal rankings of every game, bold predictions, and much more.

As always: It's a great day to be great.

1. Just how sweet has the Jameis experience been?

Pretty awesome for almost everyone involved. NFL RedZone viewers? Yup. Browns fans? Yes. Opposing defenses? Mostly. Fantasy managers: OH F*CK YEAH BABY!

We'll focus on the latter scenario here because, you know, this is a fantasy-themed column after all, but yeah: The presence of Jameis Winston under center has taken the Browns from arguably the single-most depressing offense in the league to maybe the NFL's most fantasy-friendly unit.

Jameis himself has certainly helped out QB-needy rosters, throwing for an average of 321 yards per start and 2 TDs during his three games as QB1. While there's not much of a rushing floor here, Winston's constant willingness to throw the ball downfield has provided consistent fantasy upside. Overall, his 10.9-yard average target depth trails only Anthony Richardson (12.7) and marks the eighth time in his career that he's posted a double-digit mark.

Naturally, all this downfield passing has enabled plenty of fantasy goodness for his friends. This passing game suddenly has not one, not two, not three, but four relevant pass catchers who can be started in leagues of most shapes and sizes.

Browns pass catchers in three games with Winston under center:

All parties involved have been upgraded in Dwain McFarland's critically acclaimed Utilization Report and sure look like rock solid fantasy starters the rest of the way.

Pretty much the only loser in the equation has been Nick Chubb, who continues to struggle to replicate his pre-injury efficiency inside an offense that hasn't shied away from letting Jameis go full Jameis: Cleveland's +5% dropback rate over expected since Week 8 trails only the Bills and Bengals; this is as pass-happy of an offense as any group in the league.

Just one problem: The schedule is about to heat up in a major way. And not in a good way:

  • Week 12 vs. Steelers: 7th in EPA allowed per dropback— potentially brutal weather
  • Week 13 at Broncos: 3rd
  • Week 14 at Steelers: 7th
  • Week 15 vs. Chiefs: 18th
  • Week 16 at Bengals: 24th
  • Week 17 vs. Dolphins: 14th

Ultimately, Winston's gunslinger mentality and high-end volume should be enough for all involved pass catchers to keep on keeping on to a decent extent despite the tougher matchups; just realize things will get rough in a hurry should turnovers force Kevin Stefanski to make the move to Dorian Thompson-Robinson, AKA one of the very few QBs on the planet with worse efficiency numbers than Deshaun Watson over the past two seasons.

2. Is it time to trust Ladd McConkey as an every-week WR2 in fantasy land?

We're getting there! The 34th overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft has really started to come into his own over the past month of action:

  • Week 8: 6 receptions-111 yards-2 TD (6 targets), PPR WR2
  • Week 9: 5-64-0 (7), WR33
  • Week 10: 2-52-0 (2), WR48
  • Week 11: 6-123-0 (9), WR16

Top 15 in ESPN's Open Score and 22nd in PFF receiving grade, McConkey looks the part of a #good real-life receiver inside of an offense led by arguably the game's hottest QB (on-field, get your mind out of the gutter) in Justin Herbert.

There's also the reality that this Chargers offense has taken a step forward in terms of its dropback rate over expected since returning from the Week 5 bye. Whether it's Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman leaning into the forward pass, or Herbert simply being healthier and in a better position to drop back more often: This is no longer one of the game's most run-heavy offenses.

Chargers dropback rate over expected:

  • Weeks 1-4: -5% (tied for 25th)
  • Week 6-11: +1% (tied for 9th)

Up next is what the kids might call a smash spot against the Ravens, who have allowed the most PPR points per game to opposing WRs this season and boast the sort of offensive firepower to coax Herbert and Co. into a potential fantasy-friendly shootout. While it's tough to squeeze McConkey into the position's top-12 options, I do like him as an upside WR2 this week ahead of guys like Jayden Reed, DeVonta Smith, and Marvin Harrison Jr., among others.

3. Does Bo Nix deserve to be a rest-of-season QB1?

Well, he's been just that through 11 weeks of the season. Overall, Nix's 17.8 fantasy points per game are good for the 9th-highest mark at the position, ahead of guys like Jordan Love (17.5), Jared Goff (17.3), and Patrick Mahomes (15.8), among others.

A big reason why Nix has been so effective in fantasy land has been the sneaky-solid rushing upside at hand. Just eight QBs have scored at least 50 fantasy points from purely rushing production this year:

However, Nix hasn't even needed to rely on the ground game too much in recent weeks thanks to the reality that this Broncos passing game has suddenly looked quite lethal. Whether it's Nix's development, Sean Payton pulling the right strings, Courtland Sutton putting on his big-boy pants, or all the above: We're looking at one of the most efficient passing games in the NFL over the last month of action.

 

 

While Sutton has been the only pass catcher fantasy managers can overly rely on—overall PPR WR5 since Week 8!—Nix's ability to rack up production with this otherwise rag-tag group of pass catchers can't be ignored. Three of his final five matchups in the fantasy season are against bottom-10 defenses in fantasy points per game allowed to the position; get used to seeing Nix's name inside the position's top 12 moving forward—this week specifically he's a legit top-6 option at the position and someone I would start ahead of guys like Patrick Mahomes, Brock Purdy, and Jared Goff, among others.

4. How concerned should we be for WR1s playing with a backup QB?

This applies to three key situations ahead of Week 12:

Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb: Has now posted top-24 numbers in five of eight games alongside Cooper Rush over the years. While the Cowboys backup QB doesn't look anything like, you know, a good professional thrower of the football, he at least proved capable of moving the ball between the 20s against the Texans. And to Rush's credit: He's peppered Lamb with at least 8 targets in each of his eight career starts. The Cowboys have also remained steadfast with getting their $136-million man involved on the ground: Lamb has converted 12 carries into 68 yards on the ground this season, more than any WR not named Jayden Reed (105) or Deebo Samuel (79). While the Commanders have improved on defense as the year has gone on, Lamb's combination of high-end talent and volume keeps him locked and loaded as an upside WR2 at worst.

Giants WR Malik Nabers: You might not think anything can be worse than our fantasy WR catching passes from Daniel Jones, but then again Tommy DeVito does exist. Overall, DeVito ranks 44th and 41st among 46 qualified QBs in EPA per dropback (-0.194) and completion percentage over expected (-2.9%) over the past two seasons. Look, I love the Italian memes and jokes as much as the next way-too-online millennial, but we're talking about a QB who surpassed 200 passing yards in just one of six starts last season while letting more pressures be converted into sacks (37.4%) than any other QB in the league. Oh yeah, his 6.6-yard average target depth last year was also the fourth-lowest mark in the league. Hopefully some cake matchups against the Bucs, Cowboys, and Saints over the next three weeks yield a boost in efficiency, otherwise Nabers' early-season WR1 heights might continue to look like a pipe dream due to the lack of scoring upside at hand.

Colts WR Josh Downs: Kudos to Anthony Richardson for making a number of big-time throws during the Colts' comeback win over the Jets in Week 11, but it was another instance of Indy just not emphasizing the passing game with its second-year dual-threat QB under center. Overall, Downs has averaged 5.5 targets (and 11.7 PPR points) in four games with Richardson compared to 9.8 targets (16.8) in five games with Flacco. The four contests with Richardson have presented some highs (20.9 PPR points, 19.4), but also some truly rough lows (5.2, 1.3). It's tough to be overly optimistic that another boom is incoming against the Lions' league-best defense in EPA allowed per dropback; Downs is more of a mid-tier WR3 with Richardson at QB as opposed to someone who needs to be jammed into starting lineups.

5. Who are the best TE streaming options for the next few weeks?

Weeks 12 and 14 will both feature six teams on bye, meaning the likes of Taysom Hill, Kyle Pitts, Evan Engram, and Mark Andrews among others will be getting a breather, while fantasy managers attempt to lock down those playoff spots.

Lucky for you: There are still a number of fairly low-owned options at the position who should be able to get you through these trying times.

  • Dolphins TE Jonnu Smith (31.7%): Has posted two top-3 performances in five weeks since returning from bye. Unironically second on the Dolphins in targets (52) and receiving yards (448), the dismal production of Jaylen Waddle has directly benefited the ex-Titan/Patriots/Falcon TE. There are winnable matchups on the horizon in Week 12 (Patriots just allowed 295 yards and 4 TDs to Matthew Stafford) and Week 14 (Jets have been fleeced by Kyler Murray and Anthony Richardson in consecutive weeks). The No. 2 piece of this ascending passing game is my go-to target at the position to get through these next few weeks.
  • Seahawks TE Will Dissly (13.9%): Was stuck in a bit of a rotation earlier in the season, but now is standing out as THE TE1 with booming 8-81-0 and 4-80-1 receiving lines to his name since the Chargers returned from their Week 5 bye. All the nice things I said earlier about Ladd McConkey and the Chargers' suddenly balanced offense plus winnable upcoming schedule also apply here; Dissly deserves a bump up the ranks ahead of Week 12's smash spot against the Ravens' 28th-ranked defense in EPA allowed per dropback.
  • Giants TE Theo Johnson (2%): The deepest dive of them all, Johnson could feasibly benefit from DeVito's lowly aDOT and at a minimum has the sort of full-time role that we look for at the position. Overall, Johnson has run a route on 77% of the Giants' dropbacks this season—an elite mark and in the same ballpark as guys like George Kittle (79%) and Brock Bowers (78%). The Buccaneers have allowed 36, 27, 41, 31, 30, and 23 points in their last six games; perhaps they'll again wilt against the Giants in a classic "movable force vs. stoppable object" matchup.

6. What defenses have emerged as major pass or run-funnel units?

Sometimes the best way to handle tough close start/sit decisions is to heavily lean into matchups and target defenses that are especially exploitable against the run or the pass. This doesn't always mean the defense in question is bad against one specific method of moving the football—some of the league's worst overall defenses regularly rank well against the run—but more extreme schematic tendencies can sometimes lead to offenses essentially being forced to funnel the majority of their production through one specific avenue.

Specifically, the following defenses have been much better against the pass than the run this season; their Week 12 matchups look pretty, pretty, pretty good for the involved RBs:

  • Bears (2nd in EPA allowed per dropback, 23rd in EPA allowed per rush): Obviously Aaron Jones should continue to be started in lineups of most shapes and sizes, but perhaps Cam Akers' recent boost in volume is here to stay. Overall, Akers has handled 14 and 12 touches, respectively, over the past two weeks, undoubtedly helping take some of the load off of A-aron while he plays through a rib injury. Akers could fall into the end zone once for desperate fantasy managers or simply provide some solid potential handcuff relief down the stretch.
  • Giants (17th, 27th): The Bucs might not need to rely on their RBs quite as much should Mike Evans (hamstring) return from injury this week, but man, oh man, was their backfield duo lethal before their Week 11 bye: Both Rachaad White (RB7) and Bucky Irving (RB20) managed to post rather solid PPR numbers during Weeks 7-10. It'd be a lot cooler if the backfield condensed down to just one singular elite option; just realize desperate fantasy managers could do worse than 10-15 combined carries and targets in a plus matchup inside the league's fifth-ranked scoring offense.

On the other side of things, these defenses have been strong against the run, but exceptionally weak against the pass—their opponent's pass catchers might have a better chance at booming this week:

  • Ravens (28th in EPA allowed per dropback, 2nd in EPA allowed per rush): We already discussed the potential for Ladd McConkey and Will Dissly to boom in this matchup, but guys like Quentin Johnston (86% route rate) and Joshua Palmer (81%) are also on the table as FLEX plays in this smash spot. The former WR in particular could be due for a big one: Nobody had more unrealized air yards than QJ (136) in Week 11.
  • Chiefs (18th, 3rd): This secondary has started to show some cracks in recent weeks, as the likes of Baker Mayfield, Bo Nix, and Josh Allen each found some decent success through the air in their respective matchups. Enter: Bryce Young, who has looked far better since returning from his benching, and has a fairly clear-cut big-three at WR in Xavier Legette, Jalen Coker, and most likely Adam Thielen (hamstring).
  • Buccaneers (30th, 18th): We mentioned the potential for Malik Nabers and (to a lesser extent) Theo Johnson to take advantage of this matchup previously, but perhaps guys like Wan'Dale Robinson (still somehow 10th in the NFL in targets this season) and Darius Slayton (two 100-plus-yard performances since September ended, which reminds me, someone should wake up Green Bay) can boom in this winnable matchup.

7. Fraud check: Which top Week 12 performances were real?

The following players ripped off sterling top-12 PPR performances last week, but that doesn't mean the production is here to stay. Presenting: Fraud check, where we (me) decide if last week's biggest stars are here to stay, or if we simply just witnessed a one-off boom.

Colts QB Anthony Richardson (QB2): Here's a chronological list of Richardson's fantasy finishes in his eight career complete starts: QB4, QB4, QB4, QB23, QB31, QB22, QB24, QB2. Things were certainly ROUGH prior to his brief benching, but the return to form in Week 11 was a good reminder that pretty much any QB with the upside to rack up double-digit rush attempts during any given week has the potential to post a top-5 finish in fantasy land. Unfortunately, this week's matchup against the Lions pits Richardson against the league's No. 1 defense in havoc rate and EPA per dropback—they've also allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing QBs this season. Add it all together, and Richardson comes in as a midrange QB2 with serious boom … or bust … potential.

Broncos RB Javonte Williams (RB11): In Week 10, Williams had three total touches and played a season-low 29% of the offense's snaps. It seemed like rookie Audric Estime had completely taken over the backfield's early-down role. Then in Week 11, Javonte posted 9-59-1 rushing and 4-28-0 receiving lines on a team-high 53% snap rate. Which data point is more likely to persist moving forward? Good question! Too bad it's unlikely to have a clear answer with Sean Payton perennially being one of the more perplexing coaches to figure out when it comes to future playing time allotment. I'd put my chip on Williams leading the backfield more weeks than not moving forward, but there's not enough confidence here to rank him as anything more than a boom-or-bust RB3 moving forward.

49ers WR Jauan Jennings (WR7): Many expected Jennings to be the team's de facto No. 4 WR this season … and suddenly he's looking a lot like the No.1  after back-to-back blistering 7-93-0 and 10-91-1 performances. While the absence of George Kittle helped condense the target tree in Week 11, it was another example of Brock Purdy seemingly trusting Jennings more than any other WR when it comes to making plays in tight coverage. Overall, Jennings has a whopping 18 contested targets this season (caught 11)--the rest of San Fran's WRs have combined for 23 (caught 9). Dominating targets and simply looking like the best WR on the offense, Jennings has surpassed Deebo Samuel in my Week 12 ranks and is someone who should be in far more starting lineups than not moving forward. 

Commanders TE Zach Ertz (TE7): The most important thing to note here: The Twitter account devoted solely to noting that Ertz did in fact not break a tackle after each of his receptions is BACK after a multi-year layoff. And about time: The 34-year-old TE ranks second on the Commanders in targets (61) and receptions (43) behind only Terry McLaurin. There's not a huge yardage ceiling here considering Ertz has surpassed 50 yards on just three occasions this season, but he's a good bet for 8-plus PPR points more weeks than not—something that has helped him score the 7th-most points at the position on the season (just 0.6 fewer than Kyle Pitts!). While top-6 heights the rest of the way are probably wishful thinking, I'm buying the idea of another solid performance in Week 12 against a Cowboys defense that ranks just 25th in EPA allowed per dropback.

8. What are the biggest on-paper mismatches in Week 12?

Every week I put together a group of charts meant to provide easy-to-decipher matchup advantages on both sides of the ball in a handful of categories. This includes combined explosive pass/run-play rates, pressure, yards before contact, pass yards per dropback, and EPA per play. The idea is to have one metric to show a mismatch instead of always going, "Offense ranks X, defense ranks Y."

Without further adieu: The week's biggest mismatches in these ever-important categories. Feel free to click on any of the below categories for a full chart.

  • Explosive passing offense: The Lions, Vikings, Ravens, and Chargers passing games appear to be set up quite well. However, the Titans, Patriots, and Raiders aren't looking too hot at the moment ahead of their tough respective matchups.
  • Explosive running offense: The Buccaneers, Ravens, and Cardinals look especially poised to do good things on the ground this week. Meanwhile, the Chiefs, Panthers, Raiders, and Chargers, in particular, look to have their work cut out for them.
  • Pressure: The Dolphins, Chiefs, and Broncos look ready to provide plenty of clean pockets this week, while the Steelers, Eagles, Vikings, and Patriots could be facing more pressure than they'd prefer.
  • Yards before contact per carry: RBs from the Ravens, Eagles, Commanders, and Chiefs might have more clear runways than usual this week, but the opposite is true for the Patriots, Raiders, Panthers, and Steelers.
  • Pass yards per dropback: The best set-up passing attacks look like the Lions, Packers, Commanders, Ravens, and Chargers this week, while the worst look like the Titans, Bears, Patriots, and Raiders.
  • EPA per play: Cardinals-Seahawks, 49ers-Packers, and Ravens-Chargers stand out as the week's most likely back-and-forth shootouts, whereas Vikings-Bears and Titans-Texans look like the defensive slugfests to put it nicely.

9. Ranking every game of the week from a biased entertainment perspective

I remain steadfast in the idea that no NFL game is inherently "bad." Complaining about specific matchups is ignoring the reality that relatively *meh* football is so much better than *no* football; we should NEVER dismiss any given 60 minutes of professional action on the gridiron.

With that said: Some matchups are indeed more awesome than others, so let's take a quick second to rank every matchup of the week in terms of what I'm looking forward to most through my own biased lenses:

  1. Ravens-Chargers. The Harbaugh Bowl. Lamar Jackson vs. Justin Herbert. Revenge games galore on the Chargers. Monday Night Football. The Manning Cast. Here. We. Go.
  2. Eagles-Rams. This fully healthy Rams offense looks capable of scoring with anyone when they're clicking, and they might need to do just that against an Eagles offense that has been capable of gashing opponents pretty much however they want for the better part of the last six weeks. We'll be waiting all day for this Sunday night shootout.
  3. 49ers-Packers. Can Jordan Love overcome Green Bay's demons in this matchup? Even if he doesn't, his gunslinger nature has made even the rare down games pretty entertaining. Meanwhile, the 49ers continue to find ways to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory; Kyle Shanahan and Co. could really use a win here.
  4. Lions-Colts. One of two Week 12 matchups with a game total north of 50. The Lions have either blown the absolute doors off their opponent OR found themselves in a late-game, one-possession struggle in nearly every game this season, while the Anthony Richardson-led Colts continue to be one of the bigger wild cards in the league.
  5. Cardinals-Seahawks. There's a bit of a tier dropoff following this game, but still: Kyler Murray and Geno Smith are capable of scoring with the best of them when everything is clicking. The NFC West might be the most evenly matched division in football; one of these teams will exit Week 12 with a signature win.
  6. Steelers-Browns. Late November Ohio weather is expected to be a factor in this likely defensive slugfest, but then again, Jameis Winston is involved, so it's tough to be too down on the potential entertainment factor.
  7. Vikings-Bears. Last week's walk-off blocked-field goal loss certainly wasn't ideal for Bears fans, but the reality that Caleb Williams looked good is more important in the long run. Meanwhile, Sam Darnold and Co. haven't managed to score more than 23 points in a month after looking like one of the league's better offenses during the first seven weeks of the season; a turnaround will be needed with the schedule getting tougher down the stretch.
  8. Buccaneers-Giants. This Baker Mayfield-led offense has been fun to watch all season long and is tentatively expected to get Mike Evans (hamstring) back. Meanwhile, the Giants can't possibly be less entertaining with Daniel Jones now on the bench, right? RIGHT?
  9. Titans-Texans. Hide your kids, hide your wife: Will Levis has been making some good things happen in recent weeks. I guess that C.J. Stroud guy is pretty good, too, especially with Nico Collins back in action. That said: The Texans will have a problem if they fail to eat Ws in their next two winnable matchups against the Titans and Jaguars ahead of their Week 14 bye.
  10. Patriots-Dolphins. The Miami offense has largely gotten back to putting up points with the best of them with Tua Tagovailoa under center, while the Drake Maye experience has been a lot of fun independent of the mixed results.
  11. Chiefs-Panthers. The Patrick Mahomes experience has been better recently; he's thrown 9 TDs in the last four weeks after having just 6 in the team's first six games of the year. Still, the team's "death by a thousand paper cuts" offensive style hasn't been particularly fun to watch all season long, while their usually suffocating defense figures to render Bryce Young and Co. fairly useless.
  12. Broncos-Raiders. The Bo Nix-led Denver offense has been cooking recently, and it's tough to imagine this dead-in-the-water Raiders squad putting up much of a fight. Good news: Brock Bowers is a lot of fun to watch.
  13. Cowboys-Commanders. Respect to Jayden Daniels … and that's all I got. Dan Quinn's revenge game is kinda cool? Can the Cowboys just play Trey Lance already? Don't get me wrong, they would still be terrible, BUT it could be more of a fun bad.

10. Three bold predictions for Week 12:

Every week I'll put my reputation on the line regarding a handful of players I believe could outperform their general fantasy-related expectations. The majority will NOT work out—they wouldn't be bold otherwise—but will that stop me? Hell, no!

Without further adieu: Let's get weird.

  • Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle: One of the biggest disappointments in all of fantasy football hasn't reached 60 yards since Week 1 and has just one trip to the end zone all year. And yet, this Miami offense has been grooving since Tua Tagovailoa returned with 27-plus points in three of its last four games, and I refuse to believe Waddle is simply suddenly a bad football player. Look for the squeaky wheel to get the grease: I'm calling for 118 yards and a TD for Waddle a day before he turns 26 years of age.
  • Cardinals RB James Conner: The 29-year-old veteran has some of the position's very best advanced stats when it comes to breaking tackles and creating yards after contact, but has yet to put together a true boom performance. Perhaps the wait is over against a Seahawks defense he shredded for 204 total yards the last time they squared off last season–I'm calling for 120-plus total yards and not one but two trips to the end zone.
  • Lions WR Jameson Williams: Not to brag (OK, to brag a little), but we've nailed both of Jamo's 100-plus yard efforts in this very column this season. Let's try to make it 3 for 3 against a Colts secondary that has been pretty leaky all season long on their way to allowing the 8th-most receiving yards to opposing WRs. I like Williams to continue to benefit from Sam LaPorta (shoulder) either being absent or functioning at less than 100%: Give me 119 yards and a trip to the end zone for the Lions' field-stretching savant.

Players highlighted last week and results: Jonathan Taylor (60 yards), Nick Chubb (50 yards), Jameson Williams (4-124-1).