It is time to set our fantasy lineups for the weekend, and with that in mind, let's follow the data to analyze some of the biggest Week 12 fantasy football rankings risers and fallers to help you make those critical start-sit decisions.

Note: as you read through this piece, you'll notice the Utilization Score being used as a pillar of analysis. For more information on how to use the score and why it's more predictive than fantasy points per game, read here.

Risers In The Week 12 Fantasy Football Rankings

Justin Herbert | QB | Chargers

Since the Week 5 bye, the Chargers have demonstrated a willingness to sling the rock, posting a positive dropback over the expected rate in four of five games. Over that span, Herbert averaged 268 yards per game—a sizzling 123-yard increase. The fifth-year signal-caller is healthy and has found his groove with ascending wide receiver talents Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston.

The Ravens allow the most fantasy points to opposing QBs through the air, with 20.2 per contest. Baltimore has been roasted for a league-high 305 passing yards per game. On the flip side, they are one of the toughest teams to run against, allowing the second-fewest yards per game (77.5).

Herbert UPGRADES to mid-range QB1 territory and is a SMASH play against the Ravens.

QB Rapid Fire: Upgrades & Pending News

  • Baker Mayfield | Buccaneers: Since the loss of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, we have witnessed a decline in Mayfield's performance. Over the last three games, he averaged 215 yards—a 51-yard drop from his 266 over the first seven games. However, Mayfield should get Mike Evans back this weekend, and Cade Otton has stepped into the role of Godwin. Mayfield ranks fourth in points per game (21.3) and ranks as my QB6 against the Giants.
     
  • Bo Nix | Broncos: Nix has been sun-running over the last four games, averaging 23.1 fantasy points. The rookie quarterback has been getting things done on the ground all year, ranking seventh in designed rush attempts (12%) and scramble rate (8%), but now the Denver passing attack has come to life. Over the last month, Nix has delivered 248 yards and two passing TDs per contest. The Broncos might not need to pass much against the Raiders as six-point favorites, but they allow the second-most passing TDs per contest on the slate (1.6). Nix UPGRADES to mid-range QB1 status.

David Montgomery | RB | Lions

While Jahmyr Gibbs gets most of the headlines in the Detroit backfield (for good reason), Montgomery has remained a strong fantasy asset in year two of the duo with 16.4 points per game. His role is more game-script dependent thanks to lower route participation, but the Lions don't trail very often. Detroit has been behind by four-plus points on only 18% of plays this season—the fourth-lowest mark in the NFL.

No other team is more effective than the Lions on offense. They punch in a TD on 36% of their drives and LOVE running the ball inside the five-yard line (69%). So, what Montgomery gives up in route participation, he makes up for by leading the team in attempts inside the five-yard line (54%).

 

Detroit is eight-point favorites against a Colts defense, allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game (143) on the Week 12 slate. Detroit ranks No. 1 in team total (29.5). Montgomery delivered 95 total yards and two TDs in a similar spot last week.

Montgomery UPGRADES to low-end RB1 territory as my RB10.

Brian Robinson Jr. | RB | Commanders

Robinson returned to action and delivered 14.2 fantasy points against a tough Eagles defense. Over his last two games, the third-year back has dominated rushing attempts with 64% and 67% of the totes.

 

Robinson's Utilization Score falls into a similar range as David Montgomery's. With Austin Ekeler soaking up most of the pass-down work, Robinson's route participation rate (35%) suffers, making him a game-script-dependent back.

However, the game script and matchup are highly favorable this weekend against the Cowboys. The Commanders boast the second-highest team total (28.3) and are 11-point favorites. Dallas has coughed up the fourth-largest fantasy boost to the RB position at 4.6 points per game. Like Detroit, Washington LOVES to pound the rock from in close, ranking sixth in rush rate inside the five-yard line (74%). Robinson 

Robinson UPGRADES to borderline RB1 territory and offers multi-TD upside.

Rachaad White & Bucky Irving | RB | Buccaneers

Over the last four games, White has led the Tampa Bay backfield with a 7.7 Utilization Score thanks to his dominant role on passing downs. However, Irving has taken over as the primary ball carrier, handling 43% of rushing attempts, and has made the most of his passing reps with 29% targets per route run (TPRR).

 

This sort of split hasn't been ideal historically, especially with Sean Tucker remaining a nuisance; however, the duo has delivered with 19.6 and 14.1 points per game. The return of Mike Evans could lower their targets moving forward, but the matchup in Week 12 is just too juicy to ignore. The Giants allow the third-most rushing yards per game (147), and the Bucs are six-point favorites.

White and Irving UPGRADE to low-end RB2 status.

RB Rapid Fire: Upgrades & Pending News 

  • Kareem Hunt & Isiah Pacheco | Chiefs: The Panthers have green-lighted the largest fantasy boost to the RB position this season at 6.9 points per game. Opponents have run roughshod over Carolina for 159 yards and 1.6 TDs per contest. Usually, that would make the lead RB of their opponent a massive upgrade for the week. However, we don't know what the Chiefs backfield will look like with the potential return of Pacheco. For now, I assume Pacheco plays but doesn't garner elite utilization. If Pacheco plays, he is a high-end RB3, and Hunt is a low-end RB2. If Pacheco sits, Hunt moves inside the top 10.
     
  • Roschon Johnson | Bears: If D'Andre Swift (groin) can't go, Johnson would likely take over a near-every-down role. The Vikings are the second-toughest matchup for RBs, so he wouldn't become a must-start, but Johnson would enter the borderline RB2 conversation.

Jameson Williams | WR | Lions

Williams has yet to evolve into the high-end target earner we hoped for after a 30% target share in Week 1, but his big-play ability inside a quality offense has unlocked a WR3 season. The former first-round draft pick leads the Lions in air yards per game (75.6) and averages 13.2 fantasy points.

While predicting when Williams will explode has been challenging, the conditions are ripe for an eruption game in Week 12. The Lions carry the highest team total (29.5), and the Colts are the third-best passing matchup, allowing 247 yards and 1.5 TDs per game via the pass. If Sam LaPorta misses again, it further bolsters Williams' standing.

Williams UPGRADES to mid-range WR2 territory as my WR19.

Ladd McConkey | WR | Chargers

McConkey has averaged 16.5 fantasy points per game with a 7.2 Utilization Score over the last four games. During that stretch, he led the Chargers in target share (24%), and 42% of his targets came via play action.

 

Nerd Note: Play action is a cheat code for pass catchers in fantasy football. Over the last four seasons, wide receivers have enjoyed a 26% boost in fantasy points per route on routes with play-action versus those without. For tight ends, who primarily operate in the area where defenders are most impacted (linebackers and safeties), the boost is even more prominent at 80%! The Chargers rank third in play-action pass rate at 33% in 2024.

The Ravens have green-lighted the largest fantasy boost to the WR position at 8.9 points per game. Baltimore has allowed 305 yards and two TDs per contest through the air.

McConkey UPGRADES to mid-range WR2 status and should be in most starting lineups.

WR Rapid Fire: Upgrades & Pending News 

  • Amon-Ra St. Brown | Lions: The Sun God is my No. 1 WR overall for the second consecutive week. He has an 8.2 Utilization Score (No. 9 WR) and leads the Lions with a mouth-watering 30% target share. Against a Colts defense allowing the third-most passing yards per game on the slate, ARSB is set for another monster day while many of his other high-end WR1 peers face formidable defenses (i.e., Justin Jefferson, Puka Nacua, and Nico Collins). St. Brown UPGRADES to WR1 overall and is a SMASH play.
     
  • Tyreek Hill | Dolphins: Hill finally got going in Week 12 with 19.1 fantasy points, leading the team with a 21% target share over the last four games. While that isn't near the 32% mark we saw last year, it is a step in the right direction. The Dolphins face off against a Patriots secondary, allowing the seventh-most passing yards per game on the slate (230), and the Dolphins boast the third-largest team total (26.8). Hill UPGRADES to mid-range WR1 territory.
     
  • Terry McClaurin | Commanders: McLaurin posted a two-point fantasy dud against the Eagles in Week 11. However, he is still the team leader in targets (23%) and Utilization Score (7.2) heading into a much better matchup against the Cowboys. McLaurin is a master of nuance, and the Cowboys' secondary is known for getting burned on double moves. In a game where Washington might run the ball a ton, I still expect a big play or two from McLaurin. McLaurin is a low-end WR1 with high-end WR1 upside.
     
  • Malik Nabers | Giants: The Giants have benched Daniel Jones and named Tommy DeVito the starter. In 2023, DeVito averaged only 172 yards and 0.9 TDs passing in five games with at least 80% of the snaps. Those are not good numbers, but Jones has averaged only 207 per game this year and was good for only 191 in a Nabers-less offense last year. So, it is tough to say how much DeVito's lack of passing production ties to his performance versus the poor supporting cast in 2023. Nabers faces a Buccaneers defense, allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to pass catchers (36.2). Nabers is a high-end WR2 in this matchup.

Jonnu Smith | TE | Dolphins

Smith has an 8.1 Utilization Score since taking over a full-time role after the Week 6 bye for Miami. Over that span, he leads the Dolphins' WRs and TEs in targets (21%) and fantasy points per game (14.8).

 

Oddsmakers like the Dolphins this weekend (26.8 team total) against a Patriots defense, allowing the seventh-most passing yards per game (230) on the slate.

Smith UPGRADES to mid-range TE1 status with six teams on bye. 

TE Rapid Fire: Upgrades & Pending News

  • Will Dissly | Chargers: Dissly has a 23% target share since taking over a full-time role and gets a tasty matchup against the Ravens. Dissly UPGRADES to low-end TE1 status.

Fallers In The Week 12 Fantasy Football Rankings

C.J. Stroud | QB | Texans

Stroud isn't technically a faller compared to where he was last week, but he remains outside my top-15 options at the position despite having six teams on bye. Getting Nico Collins back is a boost, but it isn't enough for a QB struggling with accuracy over the last four games (58% completion rate), averaging 12.9 points per game.

The Titans have held opponents to the fewest passing yards per game (163) on the slate. Opposing signal callers have averaged only 12 fantasy points per game through the air.

Stroud DOWNGRADES to mid-range QB2 status.

D'Andre Swift | RB | Bears

Roschon Johnson stepped into a more prominent role in the first game with Thomas Brown as offensive coordinator. He registered season-highs in snaps (44%) and rushing attempts (34%), closing the gap between himself and D'Andre Swift.

 

Notably, Johnson took over the two-minute offense and bested Swift inside the five-yard line. Those are two of the most prolific roles for RBs on a per-opportunity basis. We only have a one-game sample, but Johnson is worth a pickup to see if this trend continues.

Swift didn't practice on Wednesday (groin), which further clouds his outlook against a Vikings defense conceding the fewest rushing yards per game (67.5). Minnesota has held opposing RB rooms to 4.3 points below their average—making them the second-toughest adjusted matchup in fantasy football.

Swift DOWNGRADES to low-end RB2 territory.

Tank Dell | WR | Texans

Despite playing multiple games without Nico Collins and/or Stefon Diggs, Dell has underperformed for most of the season. The second-year WR averaged only 11.8 points per game with a 6.6 Utilization Score from Week 6 to Week 10.

Now Collins is back, and Houston has a tough matchup against the Titans. Tennessee has been the second-hardest matchup, holding opposing WR units 3.9 points per game under their average.

Dell DOWNGRADES to mid-range WR3 territory but would be a WR4 on a full slate.

Mark Andrews | TE | Ravens

Isaiah Likely returned from injury in Week 11, and Andrews' high-end utilization evaporated. His Utilization Score plummeted to 4.3 with a 58% route participation rate and 14% target share.

 

Since Week 6, Andrews has come through with three top-12 finishes in games with Likely despite limited playing time. The upside of the Ravens' offense could be enough to boost Andrews into the top six any given week, but the challenge is figuring out when those games will occur. He also has TE26 and TE24 performances in that span.

Andrews is a boom-bust high-end TE2. 

Rapid Fire Downgrades:

  • J.K. Dobbins | Chargers: Gus Edwards has handled 30% of the rushing attempts since his return and Hassan Haskins poached 46% of attempts inside the five-yard line. These developments have pushed Dobbins' Utilization Score down to 6.7 over the last two games. The Ravens are one of the most formidable run defenses in the NFL, allowing only 78 yards per game on the ground. Dobbins DOWNGRADES to low-end RB2 territory.
     
  • Chuba Hubbard | Panthers: Hubbard draws the toughest matchup in fantasy for running backs. The Chiefs have held opposing RB units to 7.4 points below their season average. Additionally, Jonathon Brooks will make his season debut this weekend. While the team is committed long-term to Hubbard, we could see his elite utilization profile take a hit if the team opts for more of a 1-2 punch. Hubbard DOWNGRADES to mid-range RB2 territory.

Sicko Starts Of The Week For Week 12

I want to throw in a few names for all my fellow fantasy managers that are in a SICKO league. If you are in a 12-team league with three starting WRs and two flexes, these are for you! Or you are in a more typical setup but need a name to help get you through injuries; these are for you!

Season: 19 of 40

Let's go, you sickos.

Drake Maye | QB | Patriots

Maye is only in 8% of lineups and available in 85% of leagues.

In his five complete games, Maye has averaged 238 yards and 1.8 TDs per game through the air. He has tacked on 41 yards per contest on the ground. That has been good for 19.6 points per game, delivering QB8, QB7, QB12, QB15 and QB12 finishes.

Maye is the QB15 in the Fantasy Life Projections—precisely in line with my QB15 rank this weekend.

Rico Dowdle | RB | Cowboys 

Dowdle is on 73% of rosters but only in 37% of lineups.

Dallas carries the fourth-lowest team total (17.3) and is an 11-point dog against the Commanders. That is a terrible situation for a back that could be without multiple starters on the offensive line. Life isn't easy in the SICKO lane.

Still, Dowdle has averaged 15.4 opportunities (attempts plus targets) over the last three games with a 7.2 Utilization Score.

 

The Commanders' run defense has been subpar. Washington has surrendered the most rushing yards per game (159) and sanctioned the ninth-largest boost to the RB position at 3.6 points per game.

Dowdle is a high-end RB3 who could scratch and claw his way to 12 fantasy points.

Quentin Johnston | WR | Chargers

Johnston is available in 54% of leagues and in only 24% of lineups.

Since his return from injury three weeks ago, Johnston has a 21% target share and leads the team in air yards (33%) and endzone targets (40%).

 

Over that span, he has averaged 15.1 points per game and gets a juicy matchup against the worst secondary in the NFL, Baltimore. 

Johnston UPGRADES to high-end WR3 territory and could boom for a WR1 finish.

Hunter Henry | TE | Patriots

Henry is available in 55% of leagues and only in 24% of lineups.

Henry has a 7.9 Utilization Score in six games, with Drake Maye as the starter. Over that stretch, he averaged 11.2 fantasy points and led the team with a 20% target share.

 

Henry is a low-end TE1 with Maye at the helm—he UPGRADES to my TE12 this week.

Brass Balls Bench Of The Week For Week 12

If you are willing to make big calls, these players could find their way to your bench if you are loaded with other options.

Season: 11 of 14

Chuba Hubbard | RB | Panthers

See downgrades.