Ian Hartitz

And just like that: Week 13 is upon us. Let's break down some ball!

Every week I will be going through 10 key storylines ahead of all the NFL action, focusing on key fantasy-related trends, the week's biggest mismatches, my personal rankings of every game, bold predictions, and much more.

As always: It's a great day to be great.

1. What are some bets I can get excited about for Thanksgiving?

The Fantasy Life team has you ready to go with a Thanksgiving Prop Sheet, but for the gambling men and women out there: I'm LOVING the following three bets ahead of Thursday's three-game slate. Shoutout to DraftKings Sportsbook for all listed odds (Bet $5 and receive $150 in bonus bets with promo code FANTASYLIFE):

  1. Cowboys QB Cooper Rush OVER 199.5 pass yards (-115): The Cowboys' backup QB has eclipsed this number in six of nine career starts and had VERY little trouble over the past two weeks (354, 247). A large part of this has been volume: Nobody has thrown more total passes than Rush (87) over the last two weeks. The Giants looked lost trying to stop Baker Mayfield and Co. last week; I like Rush to clear this reasonable number with relative ease inside of an offense that has looked closer to "meh" over the last two weeks compared to "horrific" during their Week 10 loss to the Eagles.
  2. Giants WR Malik Nabers OVER 54.5 receiving yards (-120): I like Nabers' 5.5 receptions over as well. Why? Because the squeaky wheel gets the grease: Head coach Brian Daboll already told the media, "I've got to do a better job of getting the ball in his hands early." And why shouldn't he? Nabers is ESPN's No. 1 WR in Open Rating and caught 12 of 15 targets for 115 yards against this very Cowboys defense back in Week 4. Production has been tougher to come by in recent weeks, but the rookie has still managed to clear this number in all but two games this season.
  3. Dolphins TE Jonnu Smith to gain 40+ receiving yards (-115): Smith's receiving yards in his last seven games: 62, 96, 20, 46, 45, 101, and 87. Not too shabby, and the production hasn't been overly fluky considering Smith stands as the Dolphins' No. 2 target earner on the season. With 6+ targets in all but one of his last 7 games, the YAC-monster should have more than a few opportunities to reach this mark against a Packers defense that has allowed six separate TEs to clear 40 yards this season—including George Kittle (6-82-1) and Cole Kmet (3-42-0) in back-to-back weeks.

Speaking of that Miami offense…

2. How great has this Dolphins offense been with Tua back?

Quite awesome. Like, one of the best units in the league awesome:

Dolphins offense in Weeks 8-12:

  • Offensive points per game: 29 (No. 5)
  • EPA per play: +0.149 (No. 5)
  • EPA per dropback: +0.372 (No. 1)
  • Success rate: 49.2% (No. 2)
  • 3rd-down conversion rate: 55% (No. 2)

Tua Tagovailoa has thrown 11 TDs vs. just 1 INT during this span, De'Von Achane can't stop, won't stop ripping off RB1 finishes, at least one of Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, or Jonnu Smith seems to boom every week: Mike McDaniel's group is COOKING as of late … but now winter is coming.

To say Tagovailoa's performance has fallen off in his handful of cold-weather games would be a bit of an understatement.

Tua since 2022 (including playoffs):

  • 32 degrees or colder at kickoff (77 dropbacks): 53.6% completion rate, 6.3 yards per attempt, 3 TD, 1 INT, 81.4 passer rating
  • All other games (1,249 dropbacks): 68.8% completion rate, 8.3 yards per attempt, 65 TD, 26 INT, 103.6 passer rating

Note that we're truly only dealing with two cold games here, and they were tough matchups against the Bills and Chiefs. Things improve a bit if we look at 50 degrees or colder (179 dropbacks), but we're still dealing with a sub-60% completion rate, 7.5 yards per attempt, a rather brutal 7-to-8 TD-to-INT ratio, and an even worse 76.7 passer rating.

The temperature is expected to be right around 32 degrees on Thursday night; it's not exactly a repeat of last year's frigid Wild Card game in Arrowhead Stadium. Still, this Packers defense deserves credit for allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing QBs this season, and accordingly, it's fair to prioritize similar-tier QBs in better spots like Russell Wilson, Matthew Stafford, and Geno Smith at least for this week.

Luckily for QB needy rosters: There are a handful of second-year signal-callers seemingly playing better than ever at the moment.

3. Is comeback szn alive and well for select second-year QBs?

One of my favorite things in the world is playing NCAA Football. I like to think I've gotten pretty good over the years, but even now: Extended gaming sessions usually begin to lead to poor decision-making and reduced performance. Sometimes simply taking a break can lead to significantly better results.

Or maybe it's the six or so beers that get consumed between the first kickoff and the fourth. ANYWAY, the following three second-year QBs had quite a rough start to the season, but seem to collectively be catching their stride as of late.

Colts QB Anthony Richardson: The Week 11 performance was more boxscore friendly, but don't discount how well Richardson played well in Week 12 against the Lions despite the brutal 39.3% completion rate: He had a dropped TD, a near-miss dime down the sideline where his receiver got only one foot down, and four separate gains totaling 79 yards that were wiped out by penalty. Perhaps most encouraging (for fantasy) was another performance with double-digit rush attempts: Richardson now has three such games this season—more than any QB not named Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, or Jayden Daniels. Up next is a Patriots defense that looked lost trying to slow down the Rams and Dolphins over the last two weeks; Richardson is deserving of borderline QB1 treatment in this plus spot.

Panthers QB Bryce Young: The 2023 NFL Draft's No. 1 overall pick looked doomed after his disappointing first two weeks of the season. However, things started to look up in Young's first two games back under center, and last week's performance against the Chiefs was truly the best outing of his career. Of course, there still isn't too much production to get worked up about in this run-first Panthers offense, but at least Young is earning some level of confidence that maybe he can still be the team's QB of the future. This latest four-game stretch is rather easily the best he has ever looked. It wouldn't be shocking if the good times continue to roll next week against the Buccaneers' 29th-ranked defense in EPA allowed per dropback.

Titans QB Will Levis: Is averaging a robust 9.6 yards per attempt over the past three weeks (No. 4 in the NFL) and has been credited with seven big-time throws by PFF—more than anyone other than Sam Darnold. The boneheaded meme-worthy turnovers have also all but disappeared; the only remaining problem is the sacks. Overall, Levis has taken 7, 5, and 8 sacks over the last three weeks. His 33.7% pressure-to-sack ratio on the season is the worst in the NFL, while his career 12.1% sack rate is the second-worst mark among 171 qualified QBs since 2000. Luckily in fantasy land, sacks don't count for negative points, making Levis a sneaky-solid streaming option down the stretch.

Speaking of that latter point…

4. Who are the top QB streamer options for Week 14?

Each of Lamar Jackson, Bo Nix, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson, Drake Maye, and Jayden Daniels have a bye next week, so it's best for fantasy managers to get ahead of the bidding now vs. later.

The two best options who are rostered on under 50% of teams over at ESPN:

  • Rams QB Matthew Stafford (32.4%): Has ripped off QB6, QB14, QB21, QB5, and QB9 finishes since getting his pair of BFF WRs back in Week 8. Stafford ranks 10th in EPA per dropback during this span despite having some tough matchups along the way against the Vikings, Dolphins, and Eagles. While his Week 14 spot against the Bills isn't exactly a cakewalk, this Rams offense is capable of putting up points against anyone when they are fully healthy and clicking.
  • Titans QB Will Levis (4%): We said plenty of nice things about Levis in our previous section, but here's all you need to know about his fantasy upside in Week 14: He's facing the Jaguars. Nobody has allowed more fantasy points per game to opposing QBs than Jacksonville this season, and the league's worst defense in EPA allowed per dropback sure looked like a group ready to quit on the season while giving up 52 points to the Lions in Week 11.

Since we're on the topic of looking ahead…

5. Who has the best schedule for the fantasy playoffs?

I put together a series of charts and calculated the average rank in fantasy points allowed by position for Weeks 15 through 17.

*Law and Order music*

These are their stories (full charts are available in each of the position hyperlinks):

  • Quarterback: The Titans, Giants, Raiders, Panthers, and Buccaneers boast the position's most fantasy-friendly schedules during the final three weeks of the fantasy season. Again, Will Levis remains a quality streaming option for QB-needy rosters, but otherwise, the main takeaway here is simply for Baker Mayfield's fantasy managers to be pretty, pretty, pretty happy.
  • Running back: Nobody has a more cozy final stretch than the Jets, Cardinals, Panthers, Lions, and Raiders. It's pretty obvious who benefits from the former four teams, but don't discount Ameer Abdullah making some waves on the latter squad should Zamir White and Alexander Mattison remain too banged up to play. Abdullah's Week 12 utilization was borderline erotic.
  • Wide receiver: The Raiders, Bears, Giants, Packers, and Titans have the best pass-catcher matchups here. Hopefully this means the involved parties manage to boom, particularly the likes of Jakobi Meyers, Calvin Ridley, Bears, and Packers WRs who will probably earn the benefit of the doubt in closer FLEX start/sit decisions.
  • Tight end: Nobody is set up better than the Browns, Titans, Cardinals, Texans, and Giants. This is mostly just good news for David Njoku and Trey McBride. The latter TE has a whopping 80 targets without a receiving TD this season, easily the most in the NFL. Some might say the man is due.
  • DST: While the Jaguars, Bengals, Cardinals, Colts, and Falcons have the best end-of-season schedules, none are exactly what the kids would call "good" defenses. I continue to love rolling with the Buccaneers the rest of the way, while we also shouldn't discount the Bills (Patriots, Jets) making some waves in Weeks 16 and 17 specifically.

That RB section in particular is intriguing considering the potential for certain handcuffs to potentially get a chance to boom down the stretch…

6. Who are some handcuff RBs to stash down the stretch?

The following RBs would instantly be in the ~top-15 conversation should their team's starter go down *and* are rostered on under 45% of ESPN fantasy squads:

I would also throw guys like Jerome Ford (32.9%), Cam Akers (21.9%), Antonio Gibson (17.4%), Khalil Herbert (7.2%), Jaylen Wright (5.7%), Kenneth Gainwell (2.2%), and Dameon Pierce (1.3%) into the conversation, although they would likely profile more so as low-end RB2-esque options as opposed to players who would need to be in lineups of most shapes and sizes. I'm inclined to include Tank Bigsby (33.3%), although the game-script monster is always at risk of messing up his day, and he's also actively dealing with an ankle injury.

Fun times, but fact: We can't conquer the fantasy football playoffs unless we make it there first! Accordingly, let's get into some specifics to help us, you know, win those Week 13 matchups!

7. Fraud check: Which top Week 12 performances were real?

The following players ripped off sterling top-12 PPR performances last week, but that doesn't mean the production is here to stay. Presenting: Fraud check, where we (me) decide if last week's biggest stars are here to stay, or if we simply just witnessed a one-off boom.

Bears QB Caleb Williams (QB4): It's tough to call Williams' Week 12 performance anything other than f*cking awesome. Overall, PFF credited Williams with five big-time throws—half as many as he had in Weeks 1—11 combined. It was also another quality performance on the ground; Williams has racked up 15 rush attempts over the last two weeks after finishing with five or fewer carries in all but one of his first nine games. Unfortunately, Thursday's date with the Lions presents a difficult matchup against the league's fifth-best defense in total pressures. The continued absence of CB Carlton Davis (knee/thumb) would certainly help matters, but I still struggle to get Williams inside the position's top 20 with zero teams on bye.

Browns RB Nick Chubb (RB8): It was awesome seeing Chubb find his way into the end zone twice last Thursday night; just realize he's still averaging just 3 yards per carry and 44.4 yards per game. There's zero receiving floor here, leaving Chubb's fantasy upside contingent on fantasy-friendly scoring opportunities and/or big-play rushes. The former seems unlikely against the Broncos with the Browns implied to score just 18.25 points (third-lowest mark in Week 13), while the latter is also not looking great considering Chubb's 4.1% explosive run rate ranks 52nd among 55 qualified RBs this season. Treat him as a TD-dependent RB3 as opposed to someone who needs to be in starting lineups.

Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle (WR3): Waddle's 8-144-1 effort in Week 12 marked the first time he reached even 60 yards in a game since Week 1. It was a good reminder that the 26-year-old speedster is still, in fact, good at football, although I hesitate in becoming too optimistic when this remains a passing attack content to consistently feature not one, not two, not three, but four separate parties during any given week. Tua Tagovailoa's aforementioned weather concerns also obviously figure to impact Waddle's upside ahead of Thursday night's date with the Packers. This was a fun boom, but Waddle remains a boom-or-bust WR3 for me as opposed to someone we can now suddenly trust as the top-15 WR you probably drafted him as back in August.

Bears TE Cole Kmet (TE11): Last Sunday's 7-64-0 performance wasn't exactly what fantasy dreams are made of, but the 10 targets were at least more than Kmet had seen in his previous four games combined. While we shouldn't necessarily expect this sort of volume on a weekly basis—Caleb Williams did throw 47 passes last week after all—we do have newfound evidence that upside still exists in this passing game, and Kmet has posted a more-than-stellar 80%-plus route rate in each of his last four games. Don't freak out here, man, but I'm at least willing to start Kmet ahead of guys like Pat Freiermuth, Dalton Schultz, Mike Gesicki, and Hunter Henry ahead of Week 13.

8. What are the biggest on-paper mismatches in Week 13?

Every week I put together a group of charts meant to provide easy-to-decipher matchup advantages on both sides of the ball in a handful of categories. This includes combined explosive pass/run-play rates, pressure, yards before contact, pass yards per dropback, and EPA per play. The idea is to have one metric to show a mismatch instead of always going, "Offense ranks X, defense ranks Y."

Without further adieu: The week's biggest mismatches in these ever-important categories. Feel free to click on any of the below categories for a full chart.

  • Explosive passing offense: The Lions, Eagles, Buccaneers, and Texans passing games appear to be set up quite well. However, the Browns, Raiders, and Patriots aren't looking too hot at the moment ahead of their tough respective matchups.
  • Explosive running offense: The Jaguars, Packers, Ravens, Broncos, and 49ers look especially poised to do good things on the ground this week. Meanwhile, the Raiders, Chiefs, and Browns, in particular, look to have their work cut out for them.
  • Pressure: The Buccaneers, Dolphins, and Chiefs look ready to provide plenty of clean pockets this week, while the Seahawks, Browns, Eagles, and Giants could be facing more pressure than they'd prefer.
  • Yards before contact per carry: RBs from the Ravens, 49ers, and Eagles might have more clear runways than usual this week, but the opposite is true for the Packers, Raiders, Patriots, and Browns.
  • Pass yards per dropback: The best set-up passing attacks look like the Lions, Packers, and Buccaneers this week, while the worst look like the Bears, Browns, Jaguars, and Patriots.
  • EPA per play: Eagles-Ravens and 49ers-Bills stand out as the week's most likely back-and-forth shootouts, whereas Browns-Broncos look like the week's top defensive slugfest.

9. Ranking every game of the week from a biased entertainment perspective

I remain steadfast in the idea that no NFL game is inherently "bad." Complaining about specific matchups is ignoring the reality that relatively *meh* football is so much better than *no* football; we should NEVER dismiss any given 60 minutes of professional action on the gridiron.

With that said: Some matchups are indeed more awesome than others, so let's take a quick second to rank every matchup of the week in terms of what I'm looking forward to most through my own biased lenses:

  1. Eagles-Ravens. The league's two best RBs square off in this pristine Sunday afternoon battle. Throw in Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and A.J. Brown among others, and the week's only matchup with a game total north of 50 looks poised to supply plenty of fireworks.
  2. Steelers-Bengals. Cincy (53.9) trails only the Ravens (54.8) in combined points for and against per game. Translation: This offense is good enough to score on anyone, while the defense is bad enough to let pretty much anyone score on them. This has caused seemingly one entertaining shootout after another pretty much all year long—don't be surprised if we get another one on Sunday.
  3. 49ers-Bills. This is assuming Brock Purdy (right shoulder) manages to return to action. Otherwise, we'll probably be waiting all day for a blowout on Sunday night. Still, Josh Allen and Co. tend to supply some entertaining football regardless, and it'd also be surprising to see the likes of Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel go too much longer without a blowup performance.
  4. Bears-Lions. Thanksgiving kicks off with a potential sneaky shootout should 1.) Caleb Williams keep cooking, and 2.) The Lions' banged-up defense continues to not be quite so dominant. Either way, expect Jared Goff and the NFL's top-ranked scoring offense to keep on keeping on inside the friendly confines of Ford Field.
  5. Cardinals-Vikings. Both offenses have looked elite for portions of the season, and dirt average to bad during other periods. But what if for 60 magical minutes this Sunday Kyler Murray and Sam Darnold both manage to absolutely cook? It probably won't happen, but you could imagine what it'd be like if they did.
  6. Dolphins-Packers. This game could honestly be as high as No. 2, but I'm factoring in the reality that most of America will be ready for a nap at this point on Thursday. But yeah: Set those DVRs so you can pause and catch back up following your annual best nap of the year!
  7. Browns-Broncos. I refuse to ever rank any game including Jameis Winston in the bottom half of this list, while you can also count me as a Bo-liever for the upstart Broncos. This Monday night matchup looked positively miserable on paper a few short weeks ago. But now? Hell yeah!
  8. Colts-Patriots. Remember: This is an ENTERTAINMENT list, not a ranking of matchups expected to feature the best football. Ultimately, anything is possible whenever Anthony Richardson or Drake Maye drop back to pass, meaning fans can expect something close to constant fireworks for better or (most likely) worse.
  9. Titans-Commanders. This is similar to our previous matchup, although Will Levis' newfound ability to not constantly turn the ball over has halted his legendary run of meme-worthy moments. Sigh. There's also the sad reality that Kliff Kingsbury's offense has (again) started to screech to a halt. Can we at least PLEASE throw the ball to Terry McLaurin more often? The man is FOURTH ON HIS OWN TEAM IN TARGETS OVER THE LAST FOUR WEEKS WHAT THE FLYING F*CK?!
  10. Chargers-Falcons. Two good (I think?) teams badly in need of a win to avoid some ill-timed losing streaks. Justin Herbert has played as well as any QB in the league over the last month and a half, while Kirk Cousins and Co. have fielded a pretty damn solid offense more weeks than not. The result: Week 13's fourth-highest game total of the week.
  11. Rams-Saints. It's hard to not enjoy Matthew Stafford and Co. when everyone is healthy, and Derek Carr has honestly played pretty damn good football this season—especially when considering the Saints' plethora of WR and offensive line injuries. This one's 48.5-point game total is tied for the second-highest mark of the week.
  12. Seahawks-Jets. Geno Smith and Co. are way too talented to have 20 or fewer points in four consecutive weeks, and a similar sentiment is true for the Jets offense and defense. No guarantees here for a good game, but it's possible!
  13. Buccaneers-Panthers. There seems to be little doubt that Baker Mayfield and Co. will put up points, but maybe Bryce Young can stay (relatively) hot and make this a sneaky-fun shootout! A man can dream, at least.
  14. Texans-Jaguars. Houston goes from looking like a good football team to resembling one of the year's most disappointing squads on a near-weekly basis, while the Jaguars sure seemed to have quit on the season prior to their Week 12 bye. It could be interesting to see Doug Pederson get fired mid-game, though.
  15. Giants-Cowboys. I would move this game up to No. 1 if Drew Lock winds up getting the start. Just kidding. Kind of. Anyway, the most alluring aspect here is whether or not the Cowboys can actually play a home game without getting blown out. This ranking is probably too low; I'm just mad we're all subjected to ANOTHER prime-time game featuring these two sad excuses for football teams.
  16. Raiders-Chiefs. Kansas City (-12.5) is the biggest favorite of Week 13 against Aidan O'Connell and a Raiders team that has mostly just been depressing for most of 2024. We'll find out if Antonio Pierce really has the recipe for how to beat the Chiefs, or if the second-year coach is more so in over his head while trying to lead one of the worst rosters in the sport (spoiler: It's the latter).

10. Three bold predictions for Week 13:

Every week I'll put my reputation on the line regarding a handful of players I believe could outperform their general fantasy-related expectations. The majority will NOT work out—they wouldn't be bold otherwise—but will that stop me? Hell, no!

Without further adieu: Let's get weird.

  • Bears WR Rome Odunze. The odd man out in recent weeks, Odunze still looks the part of a good professional receiver, but he and Caleb Williams have narrowly missed out on a few big plays in recent weeks. Side note: It's kind of wild how Odunze has gotten such a unanimous pass on his meh rookie season compared to, say, Marvin Harrison Jr., when the former rookie actually has more targets, near equal air yards, and both involved QBs have averaged nearly identical passing yards per game. That said: I still believe both rookies will turn out to be rather great professionals—and perhaps Odunze will start to fulfill that prophecy in a potential Turkey Day shootout against this banged-up Lions secondary. Give me 120 yards and a trip to the end zone for the 2024 NFL Draft's No. 9 overall pick.
  • Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker: The NFL's leader in missed tackles forced per carry continues to make one or two plays a week that defy the laws of physics, but unfortunately has scored just once in his last four contests. A surprising newfound pass-game role has helped keep the fantasy floor strong; just realize it's been a while since a TRUE boom performance. I'm calling for the wait to end against a Jets defense that allowed 59 points in two games before their Week 12 bye and might already be planning their airfare to Cabo. I'm calling for 180 total yards, two scores, and an overall RB1 performance for Mr. Walker in this one.
  • Texans WR Tank Dell: Everyone and their mother is expecting Nico Collins to go nuclear against the Jaguars' sad excuse for a pass defense, so wouldn't it be very on brand if the fantasy football Gods spearheaded a big-time boom for Dell instead? The pint-sized speedster has looked relatively sprier in recent weeks during season-best (for him) 72- and 126-yard performances. Dell posted 5-145-1 and 5-50-1 performances against this group last season and continues to profile as the clear-cut No. 2 option in Houston. Let's get weird: 175 yards and a TD for the 25-year-old second-year talent.

Players highlighted last week and results: Jaylen Waddle (8-144-1), James Conner (49 yards), Jameson Williams (5-64-0).