It is time to set our lineups for the week, and with that in mind, let's follow the data to analyze some of the biggest Week 14 fantasy football rankings risers and fallers to help you make those critical start-sit decisions.

Note: as you read through the Utilization Report, you'll notice the Utilization Score being used as a pillar of analysis. For more information on how to use the score and why it's more predictive than fantasy points per game, read here.

Risers in the Week 14 Fantasy Football Rankings

Tua Tagovailoa | QB | Dolphins

It is a weird week at the quarterback position. Typically, the biggest rankings risers come from matchups for our high-end QB2 tier. However, the low-end QB2 tier gobbled up the top-tier matchups this weekend.

Here are the quarterbacks facing the outlier quality matchups based on fantasy boost.

Yeah, Burrow is in a great spot, but y'all don't need me to tell you that—if you have Burrow, you are starting him. Levis, O'Connell, and Rush are all Sicko Start options (read on), but none are inside the top-12 in our consensus ranks, even with six teams on bye.

This is an excellent spot for a Nerd Note.

Nerd Note: While defensive matchups and team totals are part of the weekly rankings process, previous fantasy production is still twice as predictive as either for quarterbacks. It is also important to note that we only care about the outlier matchups, with 75 to 85% of matchups falling into the neutral category.

With all of this in mind, the case for Tagovailoa is pretty simple. First, he has been a high-end QB2 performer with Mike McDaniel, averaging 17.3 fantasy points in 37 games where he played at least 70% of snaps.

Second, Tagovailoa has been hot over the last three games, averaging 323 yards and three touchdowns per game, which has led to 25.1 fantasy points per contest. With defenses focusing on taking away Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, the Dolphins have found their counterpunch with the ascension of Jonnu Smith and De'Von Achane as playmakers in the passing attack.

Third, while the Jets' defense was one of the toughest matchups for quarterbacks early in the season, they have allowed 248 yards per game over the last three contests. In two of those games, New York faced lackluster passing attacks in the Colts and Cardinals.

Finally, oddsmakers aren't concerned about the Jets' defense either. The Dolphins are seven-point favorites, with the sixth-best team total on the slate at 26.5 points.

Tagovailoa UPGRADES to mid-range QB1 territory with six teams on bye.

QB Rapid Fire: Upgrades & Pending News

  • Baker Mayfield | Buccaneers: Mayfield is the QB5 on the season with 20.4 points per game. He didn't come through in a soft matchup against the Panthers last weekend, but don't let recency bias push him out of your lineup. He gets a shot at redemption this weekend against a Raiders defense, giving up the sixth-most fantasy points per game through the air (15) on the slate. Tampa Bay is a seven-point favorite over the Raiders and is tied with the Dolphins for the sixth-best team total (26.5). You can count the number of quarterbacks I would play over Mayfield on less than one hand—he is my QB4.
     
  • Russell Wilson | Steelers: Wilson has been a borderline QB1, averaging 18.4 fantasy points in six starts. Over that span, he has demonstrated a strong floor, topping 15.5 points in five games while flashing high-end QB1 upside with 24.9 and 27.8-point outings. The Browns have been an average matchup for quarterbacks, and Wilson clipped them for 270 yards and a TD in a blizzard in Week 12. Wilson UPGRADES to top-10 territory.
     
  • Jameis Winston | Browns: The Steelers have been one of the third-toughest matchups for opposing quarterbacks, holding opponents 2.4 points below their season average. However, the Broncos ranked in similar territory before Winston roasted them for 497 yards. The veteran quarterback certainly carries bust potential, but he also boasts as much boom potential as any other pocket passer, reaching 24-plus fantasy points in three of five games. Winston is averaging a league-leading 336 yards per game in his starts. With six teams on bye, Winston climbs inside the top 12.

Chase Brown | RB | Bengals

Since the Zack Moss injury, only Alvin Kamara has a higher Utilization Score than Brown (9.6).

 

Note: If you have not seen the weekly range slider in the Season Stats view, check it out—we just launched the new feature today. You can now isolate results to whatever range you want to analyze.

Over that span, Brown ranks second to Saquon Barkley in fantasy points per game with 22.4. Yeah, that is a lot of points per game, and now he gets an early Christmas gift with a matchup against the Cowboys. Dallas has allowed the second-most rushing yards per game (136) and the most touchdowns (1.5) on the Week 14 slate.

The Bengals are six-point favorites and claim the second-highest team total (28.3), which means Brown should have ample opportunities to tote the rock. A 150-all-purpose yardage game with two touchdowns is within reach for Brown if he runs pure.

Brown is a SMASH play as the RB2 overall behind only Barkley.

Isaac Guerendo | RB | 49ers

Guerendo steps into the RB1 role for San Francisco against the Bears. The last time we saw the rookie in a near full-time role was Week 8 when he took over for Jordan Mason after an early-game injury. Guerendo delivered 19.2 points that game with a 66% snap share and 8.6 Utilization Score.

 

It's only one game, but his 62% route participation is notable—he handled all of the two-minute offense and notched a 17% target share with Jauan Jennings and Brandon Aiyuk missing. Patrick Taylor was available that game but only played 6% of snaps. The 49ers added Israel Abanikanda to the roster this week, but Taylor will likely be Guerendo's primary competition for backfield touches along with Deebo Samuel in Week 14.

The Bears have been a solid defense this year, but teams have found success on the ground. Chicago has allowed the sixth-most yards per game (125), giving up 18 fantasy points per contest. The 49ers are four-point favorites over Chicago and have the eighth-best team total (24.3).

Guerendo UPGRADES to mid-range RB2 territory and offers RB1 upside if the 49ers decide to ride the rookie.

RB Rapid Fire: Upgrades & Pending News 

  • Bucky Irving | Buccaneers: Irving has averaged 27 points over the last two games since Tampa Bay's bye week. The electric rookie has an 8.1 Utilization Score and leads the backfield in snaps (54%), attempts (52%), and targets (14%) over that span. Last weekend, Irving notched 24 attempts and three targets—marks we could see him challenge again with Tampa favored by seven points versus the Raiders. Irving UPGRADES to mid-range RB1 status and is a must-start.
     
  • Rico Dowdle | Cowboys: It only took two months, but the Cowboys brass finally turned over the backfield keys to Dowdle over the last two games. Over that span, he has an 8.2 Utilization Score—historically a borderline RB1 territory—with a 67% snap share, 71% rush share, and 10% target share. He has RB16 and RB6 finishes with 12.8 and 21.3 points in those outings. Dallas is a six-point underdog, which isn't ideal with Hunter Luepke handling the two-minute offense but with six teams on bye, but Dowdle's healthy 21% target per route run (TPRR) rate will keep him active in the passing attack on early downs. Dowdle is UPGRADES to mid-range RB2 territory.
     
  • Tony Pollard | Titans: Pollard's Utilization Score has fallen to 6.6 over the last three healthy games for Tyjae Spears. In those games, he averaged only 8.9 fantasy points, which makes him a dicey name to include in the upgrade section. However, the Jaguars allow the second-largest fantasy boost to the running back position at 5.8 points per contest, which puts the Titans' ground game on the map as four-point favorites. Pollard would be a borderline RB2 on most slates in his weakened state, but he is a mid-range RB2 with six teams on bye.
     
  • Tyrone Tracy Jr. | Giants: The Giants carry one of the lowest team totals on the slate at 18 points and are eight-point dogs against the Saints—things aren't ideal for a running back. However, the Saints have sanctioned the seventh-best fantasy boost to the RB position at 4.3 points per game, and Tracy regained his starting role with a 71% snap share in Week 13 after two fumbles in Week 12. Despite New York's offensive woes, the rookie has three top-18 finishes in the last three games. Tracy is a mid-range RB2.
     
  • D'Andre Swift | Bears: Roschon Johnson suffered a concussion in Week 13. If he cannot play, Swift would upgrade to mid-range RB2 territory.

Mike Evans | WR | Buccaneers

Evan has gobbled up a 28% target share and 49% air yards share since returning from a hamstring injury in Week 13. Over that span, he has an 8.7 Utilization Score, averaging 18.8 fantasy points per game.

 

This season, Evans has averaged 17.7 points in healthy games with a 70% or higher route participation. Last year, he averaged 17.3 in healthy games. So, in two seasons with Mayfield at the helm, we have a 17-point per-game wide receiver.

The Bucs are seven-point favorites with the sixth-highest team total (26.5) in a neutral passing game matchup against the Raiders.

Evans UPGRADES to mid-range WR1 territory as my WR4 overall.

Jakobi Meyers | WR | Raiders

Since Davante Adams' departure, Meyers has averaged 15.1 points per game, and his underlying utilization data has been dominant.

  • Utilization Score: 8.1
  • Routes: 96%
  • Targets: 29%
  • Air yards: 40%
  • Endzone targets: 38%

Over that seven-game span, Meyers has been incredibly consistent.

  • WR1 finishes: one
  • WR2 finishes: five
  • WR3 finishes: zero
  • WR4 finishes: two

It is amazing what a 29% target share can do—even in a below-average passing attack. Of course, Meyers's one top-12 finish came last week with Aidan O'Connell throwing for over 340 yards. Tampa Bay's defense has allowed the second-most passing yards per game on the Week 14 slate (255), which gives the Raiders' passing attack a chance to create fireworks again. The Bucs have sanctioned the tenth-highest boost to the WR position at 4.3 points per game.

Meyers UPGRADES to borderline WR1 territory and should be in most starting lineups.

WR Rapid Fire: Upgrades & Pending News

  • Calvin Ridley | Titans: Ridley has an 8.2 Utilization Score with a 29% target share since the departure of DeAndre Hopkins, averaging 15.5 fantasy points. The Jaguars have green-lighted the third-largest fantasy boost to the WR position per game (6.1)—Ridley UPGRADES to top-12 territory.
     
  • Jerry Jeudy | Browns: Jeudy draws a tough matchup against a Steelers defense holding opposing WR units to 1.9 points per game below their season average. However, despite the challenging matchup, Jeudy gets a bump in the ranks thanks to a 21.1-point-per-game average since Winston's takeover. He has an 8.7 Utilization Score over that span, historically a WR1-worthy score. Jeudy UPGRADES to mid-range WR2 territory.
     
  • Khalil Shakir | Bills: Shakir's role has expanded over the last four games, reaching an 80% route participation rate in three of four games. Over that span, he has led a banged-up Buffalo pass-catching corps with a 28% target share. The Rams have empowered the WR position to the seventh-highest fantasy boost at 5.3 points per game. Shakir UPGRADES to the borderline WR2 tier.
     
  • Darnell Mooney | Falcons: Mooney has posted back-to-back duds, but his four-game target share (23%) is still in line with his 22% for the season. These sorts of things can happen over the course of a season, but Mooney remains the No. 2 option for the Falcons, and the Vikings have sanctioned the largest fantasy boost to the WR position at eight points per contest. Mooney is a borderline WR2.
     
  • DeVonta Smith | Eagles: Smith hasn't played in the last two games due to a hamstring injury but got in limited practices to finish last week. The Eagles will be without Dallas Goedert (knee) this weekend, which could open up additional opportunities for Smith if he suits up. The Eagles carry the No. 1 team total (29.5) as 13-point favorites over the Panthers. It could be another run-heavy game script for Philadelphia, but they could score gobs of TDs, creating upside for all involved. Smith is a mid-range WR3 with WR2 upside.
     
  • Jordan Addison | Vikings: Addison remains a boom-bust profile but has been hot lately, with a 26% target share and 8.6 Utilization Score over the last three games. Over that span, he has averaged 18.2 points, and the Falcons have granted the fifth-biggest fantasy boost to the WR position (5.7 per game). Addison UPGRADES to mid-range WR3 territory and offers WR2 upside. 

TE Rapid Fire: Upgrades & Pending News

  • Cade Otton | Buccaneers: Otton has been the forgotten man since the return of Mike Evans. Over the last two games, he has had a 16% target share and a 5.0 Utilization Score. However, this isn't the week to give up on the third-year tight end unless you have a slam-dunk option. The Raiders have coughed up the second-highest fantasy boost to tight ends at 4.5 points per game. Yeah, they have had to play some good ones, but the fantasy boost adjusts for the level of competition played, which is why we love it. Otton comes in as my TE7, with the Bucs boasting the sixth-highest team total.
     
  • Will Dissly | Chargers: Dissly posted a goose egg in the fantasy box score this past weekend, but he would see additional targets if Ladd McConkey (shoulder) doesn't play. McConkey practiced on Wednesday, but Jim Harbaugh is notorious for shrouding injury information. This one is worth monitoring, with the Chiefs offering the seventh-highest fantasy boost to the tight end position. Dissly is a high-end TE2 but would upgrade to low-end TE1 status if McConkey doesn't play.

Rankings Fallers for Week 14

Justin Herbert | QB | Chargers

Herbert was a bust in Week 13 with only six points against a meh Falcons defense. Dud games can happen to anyone, but the Chargers need a playmaker on offense beyond Ladd McConkey. Quentin Johnston has regressed toward rookie-season form over the last two games, leaving this attack without a field-stretching component.

McConkey is battling a shoulder injury that could keep him out or limit his effectiveness, which puts even more stress on the offense. The betting market is low on the Bolts, with the third-worst team total (19.5). Knowing that the Chargers could also choose to shell up and try to pound the rock, there are just too many question marks around Herbert this weekend to keep him in the top 12 ranks.

Herbert DOWNGRADES to mid-range QB2 territory.

Chuba Hubbard | RB | Panthers

Hubbard remained the clear-cut RB1 for the Panthers last weekend, but he registered his lowest rush share (57%) since Week 2 with the role of Jonathon Brooks expanding. Hubbard stumbled to only 4.3 fantasy points and posted his lowest Utilization Score since Week 1 at 5.4.

 

To be fair, it was a brutal matchup for Hubbard against the Chiefs—the toughest fantasy defense versus the RB position. However, it will be tough sledding again against the fourth-hardest RB defense. The Eagles have held opposing backfields 3.1 points below their season average.

Oddsmakers are out on the Panthers this weekend. The team has the lowest team total (16.5) and is a 13-point underdog. So, we have a player whose role could diminish in a tough matchup where the team could have to abandon the run early. No thanks.

Hubbard DOWNGRADES to the borderline RB2 tier.

Deebo Samuel | WR | 49ers

I have resisted moving Samuel down the rankings, thinking we would see him return to form. However, over the last four weeks, he ranks 59th in Utilization Score (4.8) and 72nd in fantasy points per game (7.0).

His 27% and 29% target shares in Weeks 11 and 13 are encouraging, and we could see some extra rushing touches with Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason out. However, we are at the point where Samuel must earn his way back into the WR2 conversation, and the Bears' defense could make that challenging. Chicago has been the second-hardest matchup for WR units, holding opponents 2.8 points below their per-game average.

Samuel DOWNGRADES to mid-range WR3 territory. 

Kyle Pitts | TE | Falcons

Hopefully, you have already sent Pitts to your bench. He ranks 17th in Utilization Score (6.1) on the season—a range where historical comps rarely found their way into the TE1 conversation.

  • TE1 to 6 finishes: 5%
  • TE7 to 12 finishes: 5%
  • TE13 to 18 finishes: 45%
  • TE19 to 24 finishes: 35%

So, 80% of his comps have finished outside the top 12 at the position. YIKES!

The Vikings have allowed the third-most passing yards (245) and fifth-most passing TDs (1.4) per game on the slate. Still, it is tough to consider Pitts more than a cross-your-fingers-and-hope option, given he is the No. 4 option on his team with a 14% target share.

Pitts DOWNGRADES to mid-range TE2 territory.

Rapid Fire Downgrades:

  • Nick Chubb | RB | Browns: With Chubb struggling with inefficiency as he works his way back from injury, the Browns could reassess the division of work. Last week, Jerome Ford matched Chubb with a 41% rushing attempt, which was a massive blow to Chubb's fantasy value because he rarely plays on pass downs. He has a meager 20% route participation rate over the last four games versus 56% for Ford. Chubb DOWNGRADES to mid-range RB3 status despite having six teams on bye.
     
  • Gus Edwards | RB | Chargers: Edwards led the Chargers backfield last weekend with a 53% snap share but could not get anything going against the Falcons. Now he must take on a Chiefs defense that has held opponent backfields to 6.1 points below their season average—the most challenging matchup in the NFL. Edwards' role isn't entrenched, and the Chargers carry a lowly 19.5-team total. Bob, I got a bad feeling on this one, all right? Edwards DOWNGRADES to mid-range RB3 territory and carries massive dud potential.
     
  • Adam Thielen | WR | Panthers: Thielen busted loose for 23.9 fantasy points and a 9.3 Utilization Score in a good matchup against the Buccaneers last weekend. While Thielen could make some late-season magic, it will be a tall order to topple the Eagles' pass defense. Philadelphia is the worst matchup for the WR position, holding opposing teams to four points below their average. Thielen is only a borderline WR3 option.

Sicko Starts For Week 14

I want to throw in a few names for all my fellow fantasy managers that are in a SICKO league. If you are in a 12-team league with three starting WRs and two flexes, these are for you! Or you are in a more typical setup but need a name to help get you through injuries; these are for you!

Season: 22 of 48

Let's go, you sickos.

Will Levis | QB | Titans

Levis is only in 7% of lineups and is available in 84% of leagues.

Don't look now, but Levis has averaged 240 yards with 1.8 touchdowns per game since returning from injury in Week 10. Over that span, he has also picked up work in the run game with a 19% designed rush share—ranking third in the NFL.

 

Some of the attempts were fumbled snaps, and no one will mistake Levis for the other dual-threat quarterbacks on this list. However, we will take every little bit we can get. Levis has cleared 16.5 points in three of his last four outings and hasn't gone below 15.

The Jaguars have endorsed the most significant fantasy boost to the quarterback position at seven points per game. Opposing signal callers have shredded them for 18 points per game through the air alone—the most favorable matchup on the slate.

Levis UPGRADES to mid-range QB2 status and offers low-end QB1 upside if bye weeks have you in a bind.

Alternate: Aidan O'Connell

Travis Etienne Jr. | RB | Jaguars

Etienne is in 37% of lineups and is available in 16% of leagues.

Etienne has been one of the biggest busts of the fantasy season. However, we saw him back in the lead role in Week 13, leading the Jaguars in snaps (52%) and rushing attempts (59%) in their first game out of the bye.

 

The Titans are a neutral matchup for running backs.

Etienne UPGRADES to borderline RB2 territory and has a shot to carve out 12-plus fantasy points.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | WR | Titans

Westbrook-Ikhine is only in 16% of lineups and is available in 67% of leagues.

Westbrook-Ikhine's eight touchdowns on 20 receptions are due for massive regression. However, the 27-year-old has improved his Utilization Score by 1.3 points over the last month and has a 6.2 mark since taking over a starting role. Over that stretch, he has an 18% target share, eclipsing 20% in three of six starts.

 

Most of NWI's comps have finished as a WR4 or lower (62%), but 28% notched a WR3 campaign, and 10% managed a WR2 season. We can target good matchups with that profile, and the Titans face Jacksonville. The Jaguars are the best matchup for WRs in fantasy.

Westbrook-Ikhine UPGRADES to borderline WR3 territory and offers WR2 spike potential.

Juwan Johnson | TE | Saints

Johnson is only in 3% of lineups and is available in 94% of leagues.

Taysom Hill is out for the season, leaving the Saints without many pass-catching options. With Hill injured, Johnson collected season-highs in multiple utilization categories in Week 13.

  • Utilization Score: 7.1
  • Routes: 79%
  • Targets: 19%
  • Air yards: 21%

Johnson UPGRADES to borderline TE1 territory against the Giants.

Brass Balls Bench For Week 14

If you are willing to make big calls, these players could find their way to your bench if you are loaded with other options.

Season: 12 of 16

Chuba Hubbard | RB | Panthers

See downgrades.