It is time to set our lineups for the week, and with that in mind, let's follow the data to analyze some of the biggest Week 15 fantasy football rankings risers and fallers to help you make those critical start-sit decisions.

Note: as you read through the Utilization Report, you'll notice the Utilization Score being used as a pillar of analysis. For more information on how to use the score and why it's more predictive than fantasy points per game, read here.

Risers In The Week 15 Fantasy Football Rankings

Sam Darnold | QB | Vikings

Darnold ranks seventh in fantasy points per game (19.9) and has averaged 25.2 over the last four games since discovering his WR2, Jordan Addison. Over that stretch, Darnold posted QB7, QB6, QB13, and QB2 finishes.

The Bears were tough on quarterbacks early in the season, but they have coughed up 18 points per game through the air over the last four weeks. They have allowed a 1.5-point fantasy boost through the air over that stretch.

Minnesota is one of the hottest offenses in the NFL and carries the sixth-highest team total (25.8) as seven-point favorites over Chicago.

Darnold UPGRADES to top-six territory in Week 15.

QB Rapid Fire: Upgrades & Pending News

  • Brock Purdy | 49ers: Purdy managers had to endure a terrible 4.2-point performance in heavy snow conditions against the Bills in Week 13, but he got back on track with 22.1 points in Week 14. He has been the model of consistency—the third-year signal-caller has delivered a top-12 fantasy finish in seven of twelve games with only two dud performances. The 49ers carry the fifth-best team total (26) on the slate, and the Rams have sanctioned a top-six fantasy boost (2.5) to quarterbacks. Purdy UPGRADES to mid-range QB1 status.
     
  • Tua Tagovailoa | Dolphins: Tagovailoa has been sun-running over the last four weeks, averaging 24.2 points per game. Over that span, he has QB10, QB3, QB8, and QB8 finishes. Over the last four games, the Texans have served up a 57-passing-yard boost per game, leading to a 2.5-point fantasy boost through the air alone. Tagovailoa remains a mid-range QB1 despite the return of six teams from the bye.

Rico Dowdle | RB | Cowboys

Over the last three games, Dallas has turned to Dowdle as a near-every-down back with a 70% snap share and 8.1 Utilization Score, averaging 16.4 points per game. He continues to give way to Hunter Luepke in long-down-and-distance (LDD) situations and the two-minute offense, but Dowdle has usurped almost all of the early-down work from Ezekiel Elliott.

Dowdle's Utilization Score comps have performed well, averaging 15.4 points based on the last four seasons of data. The majority produced low-end RB1-worthy numbers.

  • RB1 to 6 finishes: 0%
  • RB7 to 12 finishes: 67%
  • RB13 to 18 finishes: 22%
  • RB14 to 24 finishes: 11%

The Panthers have granted the largest fantasy boost to the RB position at 7.9 points per game. Dowdle's lack of work on passing downs shouldn't be an issue in what should be a tight game (two-point spread). The Panthers have given up a 7.1 boost to opponents on the ground alone.

Dowdle UPGRADES to borderline RB1 territory and is a SMASH play.

RB Rapid Fire: Upgrades & Pending News 

  • Derrick Henry | Ravens: Henry's production has fallen from his astronomical early-season highs. Over the last four games, he has averaged 13.7 points with RB14, 18, 12, and 16 finishes. However, his utilization hasn't changed—he is due for a monster performance. Good news: the Ravens are 15-point favorites against a Giants defense allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game (142). New York has green-lighted a 6.6-point fantasy boost to opposing rushing attacks over the last four games—the second most. Henry is my RB1 overall in Week 15.
     
  • Chuba Hubbard | Panthers: Hubbard stepped back into an every-down role, posting a 97% snap share with the season-ending knee injury to Jonathon Brooks in Week 14. Carolina is a slight favorite (-2) over the Cowboys, who offer up the ninth-best fantasy point boost to the RB position (3.1). Hubbard UPGRADES to the low-end RB1 tier.
     
  • Brian Robinson | Commanders: We haven't seen a fully healthy Robinson very often in 2024 due to nagging knee and hamstring issues. However, after a Week 14 bye to get right, Robinson should be in charge of the Commanders' backfield with Austin Ekeler (concussion) still sidelined. The third-year back has averaged 15.5 points in games with over 50% of the snaps. Washington is an eight-point favorite over a Saints defense endorsing the sixth-largest fantasy boost to the RB position. Robinson UPGRADES to mid-range RB2 territory and offers RB1 upside.
     
  • James Conner | Cardinals: Conner has an 8.3 Utilization Score over the last four games and now sits at a 7.6 on the season. Based on the last four years of data, his comps have posted a low-end RB1 or high-end RB2 season 65% of the time—the definition of a borderline RB1. Arizona has the third-highest team total as a seven-point favorite over New England. Conner UPGRADES to borderline RB1 status.
     
  • Aaron Jones | Vikings: Jones's utilization profile has bounced around in recent weeks, making it hard to predict his role. However, the Vikings are seven-point favorites over the Bears, who have empowered the fourth-best fantasy boost (5.3). Jones is a mid-range RB2 with RB1 upside if the Vikings decide to ride him.
     
  • Isiah Pacheco | Chiefs: Pacheco improved his attempt share from 44% to 58% in his second game back from injury. He also handled more snaps than Kareem Hunt (48% vs. 31%), which was an encouraging development. We can't say for sure that this trend will continue, but the Browns are an enticing matchup. Over the last four games, they have endorsed a 7.3-point boost to rushing attacks—the best matchup over that span. Pacheco is a mid-range RB3 with RB2 upside.
     
  • San Francisco RBs | 49ers: Isaac Guerendo is dealing with a foot sprain that puts his status for Week 15 in question. Patrick Taylor will step into a more prominent role if Guerendo can't go. The Rams have given up an NFL-high 26 points per game to rushing attacks over the last four games. Guerendo is a boom-bust RB3 option if healthy, thanks to the matchup, despite the injury risk. Taylor is a high-end RB3 option if Guerendo is out.
     
  • Seattle RBs | Seahawks: Zach Charbonnet is a mid-range RB1 if Kenneth Walker (calf) can't go. Charbonnet has averaged 27.3 points with a 9.3 Utilization Score in three games without Walker. If Walker plays, he is a borderline RB2, considering injury risk and Charbonnet's robust Week 14 performance. Charbonnet upgrades to mid-range RB1 territory if Walker can't go but is a low-end RB3 if Walker is active.

Tyreek Hill | WR | Dolphins

Hill has come to life over the last four games, averaging 19.3 points per game. Over that span, he has WR12, 31, 11, and 5 finishes. However, his success has come due to the eruption of the Dolphins' passing attack, not an improved role. Hill has a 22% target share over the last four games, aligning with his season average.

Still, that is the sort of role where Hill has thrived before. In his time with the Chiefs, Hill never posted a target share higher than 23% while notching a top-10 finish in all five seasons outside his rookie campaign. With the Dolphins passing offense averaging 325 yards and 2.8 TDs over the last month, Hill is set up for a strong finish.

The Texans' defense has authored the fourth-largest boost (7.7) to pass catchers over the last month, allowing 39 fantasy points per game.

Hill UPGRADES to top-12 status as my WR10.

WR Rapid Fire: Upgrades & Pending News

  • Jauan Jennings | 49ers: Jennings boasts the ninth-highest Utilization Score (8.3) over his last five games without Brandon Aiyuk. He has averaged 17.4 points per game over that span. The Rams have coughed up the third-best fantasy boost (6.6) to the WR position, and the 49ers carry the fifth-best team total (26). Jennings UPGRADES to mid-range WR1 status.
     
  • Calvin Ridley | Titans: Ridley didn't erupt against the Jaguars (12.9 points), but he notched a mouth-watering 38% target share. Since DeAndre Hopkins packed his bags for Kansas City, Ridley has a 30% target share and an 8.2 Utilization Score. The Bengals defense has authored a 13.7-point fantasy boost to opposing pass catchers over the last four contests—the most in the NFL. Ridley is a low-end WR2 with high-end WR1 upside.
     
  • New York WRs | Jets: In seven games together, Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson have almost identical Utilization Scores (8.0 and 7.9). Both receivers have been heavily targeted, with 26% and 24% target shares, respectively. Last week, Aaron Rodgers showed signs of life with his first 300-yard passing game since the age of the dinosaurs and now faces the second-worst pass defense in the NFL. The Jaguars have allowed 277 yards and 1.8 passing TDs per game. The WR position has enjoyed the sixth-highest fantasy boost (5.2) against Jacksonville. Adams and Wilson are high-end WR2 options in Week 15.
     
  • Ladd McConkey | Chargers: McConkey has a 27% target share and 7.5 Utilization Score, averaging 15.1 points over his last four games. The rookie has taken over the Chargers passing game and has moved into must-start territory if he is healthy enough to play (knee/shoulder) in Week 15. The Buccaneers have allowed the eighth-highest fantasy boost (4.0) to the WR position. McConkey is a mid-range WR2 if healthy.
     
  • Atlanta WRs | Falcons: The Falcons carry a healthy team total (24.8) against a Raiders secondary that has been reeling as of late. Over the last four games, Vegas has sanctioned 291 yards per game, 49 yards higher than their opponent's average. That has led to an 8.7-point boost for pass catchers. Drake London is a borderline WR1, and Darnell Mooney is a high-end WR3 with WR1 upside.
     
  • Adam Thielen | Panthers: Thielen has a 30% target share in a full-time role over the last two games. Over that span, he has a 9.5 Utilization Score, averaging 21.6 points per game. The Cowboys have sanctioned a 3.5-point boost to the WR position, but all three starting cornerbacks are healthy for the first time in 2024. Thielen UPGRADES to high-end WR3 status and offers WR1 upside.
     
  • Chicago WRs | Bears: The Bears have ditched two-TE sets in favor of getting all three of their WRs on the field more often. Since Thomas Brown took over as offensive coordinator, all three starting WRs have eclipsed 90% route participation. Over that stretch, D.J. Moore (8.0), Keenan Allen (7.6), and Rome Odunze (6.5) have all improved their Utilization Scores. The Caleb Williams experience is a roller coaster, keeping the volatility on this trio sky-high, but they get a juicy matchup against the Vikings. Minnesota has endorsed the most considerable fantasy boost (8.2) to the WR position. Moore UPGRADES to low-end WR2 status, Allen is a WR3, and Odunze is a boom-bust WR4. 

TE Rapid Fire: Upgrades & Pending News

  • David Njoku | Browns: Njoku's targets have climbed from 6.5 to 9 per game, with Jameis Winston under center. With Winston, he has an 8.8 Utilization Score, averaging 14.6 points per game. The Chiefs have been a tough pass defense for most of the season, but the unit has regressed over the last four games, allowing 270 yards per game. Over that span, opposing pass-catching units have enjoyed an above-average fantasy boost at 4.8 points per game. Njoku is knocking on the door of high-end TE1 territory.
     
  • T.J. Hockenson | Vikings: Hockenson posted an 83% route participation in Week 14 despite the return of Josh Oliver. After six games, Hockenson might finally be back in a full-time role. Jordan Addison has enjoyed the fantasy spoils in recent weeks, but Hockenson is due for a nice game, and the Bears haven't been very good against the pass over the last month, allowing the sixth-most passing yards per game (288). Hockenson is a mid-range TE1. 

Fallers In The Week 15 Fantasy Football Rankings

Russell Wilson | QB | Steelers

Wilson has made the risers section of this column in more weeks than not over the past month, but the veteran quarterback faces multiple challenges this weekend.

  • George Pickens (hamstring) is trending toward another missed game after missing practice on Wednesday.
     
  • The Eagles have held quarterbacks 2.9 points below their season average—the second-toughest matchup in the fantasy.
     
  • The Steelers have the fifth-lowest team total (19) on the slate.

Wilson DOWNGRADES to low-end QB2 status—making him bench material in Week 15.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. | RB | Giants

Tracy notched a season-high snap share (84%) along with a 9.6 Utilization Score and 19.3 fantasy points in Week 14. The rookie has eclipsed a 70% snap share in three of four games, averaging 15.6 points.

While those are massive positive developments, Tracy faces two hurdles in Week 15. First, the Giants offense is a mess, sporting an absurdly low team total (14.3), with Tommy DeVito slated to return to the lineup. They might not score a touchdown this weekend.

Second, the Ravens are the fifth-hardest matchup, holding opposing RB rooms to 2.1 points below their season average. Baltimore has held opponents to 34 yards below their season rushing average, making them the stingiest run defense in the league.

Thanks to his role, Tracy isn't a must-bench, but he DOWNGRADES to mid-range RB3 territory.

A.J. Brown | WR | Eagles

Kellen Moore indicated he is "trying to find different ways to increase the likelihood of the ball going to [Brown]." However, play design hasn't been the issue with Brown's targets—he ranks second in the league in target share (33%).

The problem is that the Eagles rank last in dropback rate over expected (DBOE) at -9%. That has led to a league-low 30.8 dropbacks per game, and Jalen Hurts turns 8% of those into scrambles. When you add it all up, you get 6.5 targets per game, which is not the diet of a healthy WR1.

Browns' Utilization Score (7.4) comps tell the whole story:

  • WR1 to 6 seasons: 3%
  • WR7 to 12 seasons: 14%
  • WR13 to 18 seasons: 29%
  • WR19 to 24 seasons: 23%
  • WR25 to 30 seasons: 26%
  • WR31 to 36 seasons: 6%

Yeah, Brown's profile still has WR1 upside (17%) because he is so talented, but the majority have finished as WR2s.

We could see squeaky-wheel treatment for Brown this weekend, but the Steelers won't make it easy. Over the last four games, they have held pass catchers 4.4 points under their season average—the fourth-hardest matchup.

Brown remains a top-12 option because he is a stud but DOWNGRADES to low-end WR1 territory.

Cade Otton | TE | Buccaneers

Otton has a 6.2 Utilization Score over the last three games since Mike Evans' return. However, Evans hasn't been the issue. The real problem has been the emergence of Sterling Shepard and Jalen McMillan.

Shepard is stealing those low-aDOT targets that Otton was feasting on after the Chris Godwin injury. Last week, McMillan further complicated matters, posting a 27% target share. If the third-round rookie breaks out, that will be another blow to Otton's fantasy profile. Teams have shown us that under-coverage targets are replaceable, and Otton appears to be one of the latest victims.

The Chargers have been the No. 1 defense against tight ends, holding teams 3.2 points below their average at the position.

Otton DOWNGRADES to the low-end TE1 tier, next to names like Hunter Henry.

Rapid Fire Downgrades:

  • Jonathan Taylor | RB | Colts: The Colts' run game has struggled over the last month and now faces the Broncos. Denver has held opposing ground attacks to 63 yards in the previous four games. They have held opponents to 37 yards below their season average over that span—the second-hardest matchup. Taylor DOWNGRADES to mid-range RB2 status.
     
  • Malik Nabers | WR | Giants: Nabers has averaged 13.5 points since the departure of Daniel Jones from the starting lineup. His 30% target share keeps his Utilization Score respectable (8.0), giving him a chance to come through when the quarterback play is adequate. However, that could be tough this weekend, with the Giants claiming the lowest team total (14) against a Ravens secondary that is playing much better. Over the last four games, Baltimore has gone from the best matchup for pass catchers to below average. Nabers DOWNGRADES to the mid-range WR3 tier.

Sicko Starts For Week 15

I want to throw in a few names for all my fellow fantasy managers that are in a SICKO league. If you are in a 12-team league with three starting WRs and two flexes, these are for you! Or you are in a more typical setup but need a name to help get you through injuries; these are for you!

Season: 24 of 50

Let's go, you sickos.

Kirk Cousins | QB | Falcons

Cousins hasn't been fantasy-relevant since a QB11 finish in Week 9. However, the biggest issue has been TD passes. The veteran hasn't thrown one in four games, which isn't sustainable. Over the last four weeks, he has only had one passing-yardage dud, averaging 267 per game.

The Falcons are five-point favorites with a healthy team total (24.8) against a Raiders defense, allowing the third-most fantasy points passing (20.1). Over that span, they have provided a 4.7-point fantasy boost through the air alone—the third-best matchup.

Cousins is as SICKO as a SICKO start can get, but if you are hurting, I like Cousins over Russell Wilson, and he is in the same tier as Matthew Stafford.

Tank Bigsby | RB | Jaguars

Bigsby has been the team's leading ball carrier in competitive and close game scripts this season, and this trend continued in Week 14.

Betting when the Jaguars will be in a competitive game script is a dicey proposition. If you get it wrong, Bigsby could bomb with Travis Etienne handling more of the passing-down work. However, the Jaguars are only four-point underdogs against the Jets, leaving the door open for a tight game this weekend.

New York has given up a 3.2-point fantasy boost to opposing rushing attacks this season—the fourth-most in the league.

Bigsby is a mid-range RB3 with RB2 upside.

Tank Dell | WR | Texans

Dell has been an afterthought since the return of Nico Collins in Week 11. Over the last three games, he has a 17% target share with a 5.3 Utilization Score, averaging 7.8 fantasy points.

Any way you cut it, Dell is a hazardous play in fantasy.

Still, there are some things to like about the former high-end fantasy producer.

  • The Texans sport the eighth-highest team total (25.3).
  • Dell still has a substantial air yards share with Collins (39%), keeping big plays in his range of outcomes.
  • The Dolphins' pass defense has softened recently, and pass catchers have received the seventh-highest fantasy boost (6.0) over the last four games.

Dell is a high-end WR4 with WR2 upside in a game that could shoot out with Miami.

Zach Ertz | TE | Commanders

With the fantasy playoffs underway, I just couldn't refuse to get one of our early-season favorite sicko starts back into the column. But make no mistake, Ertz deserves the nod as a sicko start—he leads the Commanders' pass catchers in Utilization Score (8.4) and target share (21%) over the last four games.

Ertz is a low-end TE1 with mid-range TE1 upside.

Brass Balls Bench of Week 15

If you are willing to make big calls, these players could find their way to your bench if you are loaded with other options.

Season: 12 of 16

Tyrone Tracy Jr. | RB | Giants

See downgrades.

Full Week 15 Rankings