Week 15 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Drake Maye, Jalen McMillan, and More
We spent all summer preparing to draft and all fall managing our fantasy teams just to get to this moment: the fantasy football playoffs are here. With bye weeks behind us, hopefully you can just start your studs and don't have to look for sleepers to start, but I also know that injuries exist and there are plenty of teams that limped into the playoffs. That's why I'm back again with Week 15 sleepers at each position.
As a reminder, the criteria I use for sleepers are players ranked outside the top 12 QBs, top 24 RBs, top 36 WRs, and top 12 TEs. Hopefully you have better options, but if you're struggling with injuries or just lacking depth at the position, these are players I believe you can start and feel good about.
Of course, these are just my favorites and you may have different decisions to make, so be sure to check out the Fantasy Life Week 15 rankings and start/sit tool to give yourself the best chance to keep your season alive for another week.
QB - Drake Maye
I like this Cardinals vs Patriots game as a sneaky shootout spot. The 46.5 point game total is tied for the second-highest of the week, and both the Arizona and New England defenses are beatable. Arizona ranks in the bottom five for success rate allowed on both dropbacks and rush attempts. The Patriots are also coming off of their bye week, which should help with both the health and preparation of their young team.
Over his last five games, Maye has finished no better than QB12 and no worse than QB18. This is evidence of the floor he provides at the position, but I think it undersells the ceiling that he also has. Over his last three games, the rookie has averaged 247 passing yards per game and 37 rushing yards per game. That's 13.5 fantasy points just from yardage. The only reason he hasn't been a better fantasy option is the lack of TDs.
Maye has just one game with multiple passing TDs in his last six starts and only one rushing TD on the season. For context, Bo Nix and Brock Purdy are the two QBs who rank just behind Maye in total rushing yards this season, and they each have four rushing TDs. Maye is due for positive regression in the TD department. If he hits those yardage averages I mentioned earlier and just gets to two passing TDs, that is 21.5 fantasy points (assuming 4 points per passing TD).
Dec 1, 2024; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) throws a pass against the Indianapolis Colts during the first half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images
New England isn't in the playoff picture, so the only thing they are really playing for at this point is to develop their young players. I don't expect them to suddenly switch to a pass-heavy gameplan, but I also don't expect them to hide their rookie QB in an effort to squeak out a close win. I believe there is a good chance we see 40+ dropbacks for Maye this week, and he has been playing well enough to convert that into a top-12 finish if the positive TD regression hits.
RB - Braelon Allen/Isaiah Davis
We've got a two-for-one special at the RB position. This, of course, assumes that Breece Hall will miss another week, which seems to be the direction we are heading. Allen and Davis operated in a 50/50 timeshare last week without Hall and will probably continue to split work as long as he is out. Most weeks a 50% workload in a mediocre offense won't get fantasy managers too excited, but this week the Jets get to play the Jaguars.
Jacksonville is giving up the third most fantasy points to opposing RBs this season and is incredibly injured on offense, with Evan Engram being the latest casualty. This is a game where the Jets should lead comfortably throughout, which enables them to give plenty of touches to their RB duo. Between the two, I prefer Allen in this spot as he seems more likely to handle a larger share of the carries, but there is no denying that Davis looked good last week and will be heavily involved if Breece Hall misses this game.
Keep an eye on Hall's status as we approach gametime, and if he is ruled out you can feel good about plugging either Allen or Davis into your starting lineup.
WR - Jalen McMillan
The deepest sleeper on this list, McMillan is probably still on waivers in a number of leagues, but he shouldn't be. In the Bucs' last two games, McMillan has run 85% of the available routes and posted his highest target share (27%) of the season in Week 14. The rookie appears to have flipped Sterling Shepard as the number two WR in the Tampa Bay offense.
The coach speak from Liam Coen has also been incredibly positive this week as the Bucs' OC praised the progress he has seen in practice and McMillan's two-TD performance in Week 14. This seems like an obvious situation where the team will try to feature him more down the stretch as they push for a playoff spot.
The only downside is that the Bucs face a much tougher matchup in Week 15 as they travel to Los Angeles to take on the Chargers. Both teams are in playoff position but can't take their foot off the gas, so I'm expecting a competitive game, and Vegas has the game total at 45.5 points, which is tied for fifth highest of the week. The Chargers have a good defense, but they're not so stifling that we should expect the Bucs to be completely shut down.
Another key factor is Bucky Irving's status. Irving left Week 14 early and is questionable heading into Week 15. Even if Irving plays, it's fair to assume he will be somewhat limited. Irving is the Bucs' best rusher, and their running game has largely struggled without him. As a result, I'm expecting Tampa's offense to flow through the passing game more than usual this week. With McMillan's role on the rise and the team openly praising him, I feel pretty comfortable plugging him into a lineup that is thin at the WR position.
TE - Noah Gray
One of the under-reported stories of the last few weeks is just how consistent of a role Noah Gray has had for the Chiefs' offense. He has averaged 5 targets per game over the last four weeks, including three end zone targets. With decent route participation and a solid TPRR rate over the past month, Gray is increasingly looking like someone who is a viable streaming option at the TE position.
In Week 15 the Chiefs will face a Browns team that is giving up 29.8 points per game over their last five games. Yes, Jameis Winston's pick-six problem has contributed to that, but this is also just not an elite defense in 2024. Kansas City isn't the most exciting offense in the league, but they should be able to move the ball effectively as they seem to do every week. Gray is a good bet to see at least 5 targets again this week with a reasonable shot at a TD. This makes him a good streaming option for managers dealing with TE injuries to guys like David Njoku or Evan Engram.