Fantasy Life's Week 16 Fantasy Football Cheatsheet serves as a roundtable between Geoff Ulrich, Jonathan Fuller, and Mark Drumheller to catch you up with everything you need to know for the weekend:

Which Week 16 Fantasy Football Ranking Do You Disagree With The Most?

Geoff: Kyle Pitts

This take may get me fired, but I honestly think we’re a little too low on Kyle Pitts this week. He’s got a consensus rank of 18.2 at TE and no one has him ranked higher than TE16 this week.

I get that players like Jake Ferguson, Hunter Henry, and Brenton Strange have been more involved of late, but none of those guys can create 50-yard TDs off a short reception like Pitts.

Obviously, Pitts has an actual floor of 0.0 (his Week 14 total), but his ceiling is also higher than a lot of the names in front of him. The move to Penix at QB has to be better for his upside and unlike many TEs, he doesn’t have any weather concerns this week. 

I say saddle up and roll with the much-maligned TE if you have a decision between Pitts and another player in his range.

Mark: Matthew Stafford 

I can understand why there is a little bit of recency bias swirling around Stafford. My eyes still haven’t recovered from last week’s field goal-a-thon with the 49ers.

Not only did Stafford torpedo the season for fantasy managers who trusted him, but he doubled down by delivering a donut to Cooper Kupp as well.

If you survived last week, get ready for the pendulum to swing back toward Stafford in a big way. 

Since Week 8, the LA passing game ranks 7th overall in both dropback EPA and success rate. With the Jets injuries piling up, expect Stafford to shred the Jets secondary, which has surrendered the fourth-most passing yards over the past three weeks. Oh, and since Week 6, only the Giants and Jaguars have had worse pass defenses in terms of EPA allowed.

Don’t quit on Stafford yet, he has an underrated matchup that could propel him into the bottom half of the Top 10.

Jonathan: Jalen McMillan

I am much higher on McMillan than our consensus rank of WR40. Over the last couple of weeks, the rookie has ascended to the second option in Tampa Bay's passing game and that has paid dividends for fantasy managers. Back-to-back finishes as a top-18 WR:

 

I'm also keeping my eye on Cade Otton's status for Sunday's game. If he sits, that would be a nice boost in projected targets for Evans and McMillan.

You can dive into our full Week 16 fantasy football rankings set and adjust your league scoring settings to have them custom-fit for your own league below!

Week 16 Fantasy Football Rankings

How Are You Approaching This Week’s QB Changes?

Geoff:

Michael Penix (ATL): I view it as a boost to everyone long-term, but it’s also a rookie QB in his first NFL game, so there is a need to exercise caution.

Ultimately, Penix probably improves the upside of his pass-catchers (see my Pitts take above), but I also think it will be a lot of Bijan Robinson this week against the Giants (New York has allowed the fourth most fantasy points to RBs, via our DvP Tool). 

I’m not going out of my way to jump the Falcons receivers in my rankings but feel much better about taking calculated shots where needed (with players like Pitts or Mooney) with Penix under center. 

Dorian Thompson-Robinson (CLE): Ugh, pretty big downgrade for Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore. Thompson-Robinson is about as limited as they come as a passer as he’s currently boosting a career 3.7 yards per attempt average and a completion percentage of around 50%.

Small boost for Jerome Ford, though, who may thrive as a passing back with DTR under center, especially with the Browns set as +8.5 underdogs.

I wouldn’t count on DTR keeping things competitive but it is the Bengals, who can be run on. Thompson-Robison managed 44 yards on just three carries in spot work against Cincinnati in Week 7 so he could put up somewhat surprising fantasy numbers if he’s working against prevent defenses late.

Mason Rudolph (TEN): Rudolph has averaged 6.5 yards per attempt this season so he’s been pretty conservative under center. At the same time, he also fed Calvin Ridley 10 passes one week against Detroit, albeit in a blowout-type game script, and hit Nick Westbrook-Ikhine for TDs in three straight games.

It’s a small boost for the receivers over what they were getting but I don’t expect Tennessee to start lighting it up all of a sudden either.

Mark:

When they told you to trust the devil you know over the one you don’t, they were not talking about starting Dorian Thompson-Robinson or Mason Rudolph. We know what we have with both QBs, and I’m not trusting either. I have always been an advocate of giving yourself the best possible chance to win, and that lies with the upside of Michael Penix.

The Falcons newly-crowned starting quarterback has the best supporting cast and debuts against a Giants defense that surrenders the ninth-most points to opposing QBs.

It’s going to feel like we are getting too cute by passing up a shot at the Cincinnati secondary, but Thompson-Robinson completed only 44% of his passes last season. He also averaged a mere 2.9 yards per attempt.

While Mason Rudolph has experience, the Colts defense has quietly improved in the second half of the season. Indianapolis held Bo Nix to 130 yards passing and now ranks 9th in Dropback EPA allowed over the last five weeks.

Jonathan:

Penix is far and away the QB from that group that I am most intrigued by. Atlanta has good weapons and Penix has plenty of experience that should help him transition to the NFL quickly. One of the crazier stats I've seen this season is the Falcons only having three completions from outside the tackle box. Kirk Cousins' lack of mobility is a limiting factor for this offense so I'm excited to see what they can do to open things up with a more mobile option under center. You shouldn't need to start Penix in redraft leagues but I think he is an upgrade for Bijan Robinson and Drake London who should be in your lineups. Falcons stacks are also fun in daily/weekly contests.

I view Mason Rudolph as a lateral move for the Titans offense. He's not great, but in a good matchup against the Colts, we should see one or two of Tennessee's offensive pieces deliver usable fantasy weeks. Fantasy managers will be hoping that Tony Pollard and Calvin Ridley are the players who deliver, but you never know with this Titans team. A Nick Westbrook-Ikhine two-TD game in the fantasy semifinals would feel very fitting for this season.

Dorian Thompson-Robinson isn't on my radar and I am avoiding starting other Browns whenever possible. Both Jerry Jeudy and David Njoku get significant downgrades with DTR at QB. You might not have a better option to play over them but be sure to check our Week 16 rankings if you are on the fence about starting or sitting any of the Browns skill position players.

Are there more situations that are giving you trouble with start/sit decisions? You can input your custom league settings into our Start/Sit tool for more data-driven start/sit decisions for Week 16 below!

Start/Sit Tool

Start One, Sit One, Cut One - Week 16 WR Edition

Geoff:

Honestly, I like all three of these guys this week so I'd be fine having to roll out anyone of them if forced.

Still, here is how I would rank them. 

Start: Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Smith-Njigba has taken over as the primary read in the Seattle offense. This makes sense as neither Geno Smith nor Sam Howell are great downfield passers, but Smith is pretty solid on short-intermediate routes, and Smith-Njigba is great at creating separation. 

This week he plays the Vikings who allow the most fantasy points to opposing WRs. As much as I fear DK Metcalf will wake up soon and steal all the targets and TDs back for a week or two, you can’t sit JSN in this spot. 

Sit: Jauan Jennings

Jennings has essentially taken over as the primary read in the 49ers offense. He’s produced target shares of 27% or more over his last six games alone and faces a Dolphins defense that has allowed five TDs to opposing WRs over their last three starts. 

Add in the injuries at RB for the 49ers and I could see Jennings racking up 8-9 catches this week, easily. Still, he’s just a hair underneath Smith-Njigba for me, so I’ll sit him.

Cut: Cooper Kupp

As mentioned above, I like all three guys this week. Kupp had the goose egg against the 49ers but is in a terrific bounce-back spot against a Jets defense that is likely going to be down at least one corner and allowed a ton of receptions to the slot against Jacksonville. 

The issue with Kupp is that he’s playing alongside a legit stud in Puka Nacua who demands targets every week. I think Kupp bounces back in a big way against the Jets but, long term, he’d be the player I’d want the least for the final three weeks. So he gets the boot. 

Mark:

Start: Jaxon Smith-Njigba

In case you are late to the party. The Seahawks offense belongs to Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Against the Packers, JSN hauled in 10 receptions for 83 yards, and his 12 targets were five more than any other Seahawks player. Last week was Smith-Njigba’s sixth straight game with 70-plus yards receiving. That type of consistency is too valuable to turn away this time of year. Factor in a very favorable matchup against the Vikings, and there is no way you will find this man on my bench.

Sit: Cooper Kupp

This one stings a bit because I do believe we are in for a make-up sesh between Stafford and Kupp. I know the Rams are focused on winning the NFC West, but this Jets defense provides the perfect opportunity to rekindle that “king of the wide receiver room” feeling for Kupp.

That being said, the man is sharing targets with Puka Nacua - who checks in as the second-best option this week in our consensus rankings. While I expect the Rams’ offense to explode, banking on Kupp becoming the main beneficiary is an unnecessary risk, especially during the playoffs.

Cut: Jauan Jennings

I just don’t see the upside with this 49ers offense. Last week’s debacle against the Rams was the third time in four games the Niners were held to 10 points or less.

The Dolphins defense is far from perfect. However, they do a solid job of limiting opposing quarterbacks. Miami falls in the middle of the pack in terms of EPA allowed (15th), but ranks in the Top 10 in both passing yards allowed per game (8th) and passing touchdowns surrendered (T5th).

I was not surprised when our DvP tool revealed that the Dolphins have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers (27.1).

Will Purdy muster up enough production to make Jennings relevant? I am not convinced. Jennings might have a bright future, but we are in win-now mode.

Jonathan:

This wasn't too tough of a decision for me. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is in the midst of a breakout campaign and is just four yards shy of a 1,000-yard season. He is seriously challenging DK Metcalf to be the top target in the offense and has recorded at least 74 receiving yards in each of his last six games.

Jauan Jennings has been pretty boom-or-bust over the last six weeks. In full PPR scoring, he has three weeks as the WR14 or better and three as the WR36 or worse, nothing in between. His routes and target share have been much more consistent, however, so you can still feel good starting him, just not quite as good as you can about JSN.

Cooper Kupp is the clear third on this list. Over the last four weeks, Kupp has had a solid 22% target share but is a distant number two to Puka Nacua. I also expect the Week 16 matchup between the Rams and Jets to be a slower-paced game environment that features the running game for both teams. Kupp is definitely still a good play this week but of these three WRs, he is the one I am least confident in.

Compare The Three WRs in Our Player Projections

What Is Your Hot Take For Week 16?

Geoff: Tank Bigsby: Top-5 RB

Despite some slower games of late, Bigsby remains one of the best early down rushers in the league. He leads the league in yards after contact, per rush and is also one of the best at avoiding tackles.

While he only played on 22% of the snaps last week, he still reeled off 11 carries in a game the Jaguars were trailing in for much of the second half. The week prior, in a game the Jaguars actually won, he saw 18 carries and scored his first rushing TD since Week 7.

With the Raiders offense incapable of scoring or sustaining drives, the game script this week has a far better chance of favoring more early down rushes from Bigsby and matching that 18-carry total he posted against the Titans.

Mark: Xavier Worthy: Top-10 WR

This is the week we finally see the Xavier Worthy breakout. Let’s not forget, Andy Reid is a master at the screen game.

I’m confident Big Red is salivating at the chance to use Worthy’s speed to combat Houston’s aggressive pass rush. With Mahomes’ mobility limited, the best way to keep him clean is to attack the second level of the defense with short, underneath routes.

Worthy earned 11 targets last week against the Browns, and could see much more space to operate with Hollywood Brown stretching the defense vertically. Worthy has the game-breaking speed to turn any reception into a house call, and I have a strong feeling Saturday sets up as the perfect storm for him to find his place in the offense

Jonathan: Rome Odunze finishes as a top-10 WR

The Lions defense has been decimated by injuries and the Bears are in desperate need of a bounceback performance after their Monday Night Football debacle in Minnesota. Caleb Williams put up 256 passing yards and 3 TDs against this Detroit defense on Thanksgiving and the Lions have lost several key players since then. The Bears are also at home and the weather isn't expected to be bad. All signs are pointing to a game that could see plenty of points scored.

Keenan Allen has been the most productive Bears receiver in recent weeks, but Odunze has remained involved. Since Week 8, Odunze has averaged 93 air yards per game and has eight end zone targets in that span as well. With Chicago starting the turn their attention to building for 2025 I expect Odunze to be featured heavily in their game plans and it seems like only a matter of time before Caleb and Rome connect on a couple of big plays. I like the odds that it can happen this week and result in a top-10 fantasy finish for Chicago's rookie WR.

Looking for more hidden gems for the Week 16 slate? See who's projecting the best relative to their DFS salaries this week with our NFL DFS projections below!

Week 16 NFL DFS Projections

In Five Words Or Less … What’s Your Advice to those in the fantasy football semis?

Geoff: Don’t second-guess. Take your shot!

Mark: Let it ride with upside

Jonathan: Don't overthink, trust your stars.

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