Matthew Freedman highlights his top running backs for fantasy football in Week 16.

Week 16.

The wheat has separated from the chaff. The cream has risen to the top. The ale has aged in the barrel. The cheese has molded.

Actually, I'm not sure if that last one is a good thing.

But you get the idea.

In most fantasy leagues, just four teams remain in the playoffs.

We have arrived at the semifinals.

The penultimate challenge one must overcome on the way to a championship.

Whether you had a Round 1 bye, dominated your competition last week, or just squeaked out a win to reach this all-important point, you're here.

This is where everything gets real.

From here on out, there are no easy wins, no soft matchups, no pretenders.

In Week 16, legitimate contenders for the crown are all that remain.

The weather may be cold, but this is the time of the season that forges the sword of victory.

You are now in the fire.

All that's left is to determine if you're a human … or a dragon.

Freedman's Favorites

As of Tuesday evening, here's an early look at my (preliminary) favorite Week 16 fantasy plays—the guys who (in some combination) …

  • Might be high in my fantasy rankings relative to the industry consensus.
  • Need to be started in most season-long leagues.
  • Must be added if they are on waivers.
  • Possess underappreciated upside.
  • Have advantageous matchups.
  • Should be considered in daily fantasy.
  • Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
  • Are on teams with player-friendly betting odds.
  • Stand out in our Fantasy Life Player Prop Tool.

Some customary notes.

Updates: After I submit this piece, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my rankings and my projections (accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription), which I will update throughout the week.

Scoring & Ordering: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players in separate sections are ordered within position roughly (but probably not precisely) according to my rankings.

Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use.

Sports Betting Data: Odds are as of 10:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Dec. 17, and based on the consensus lines in our Fantasy Life Odds Page.

Freedman's Favorites: Although we publish this piece as four separate articles broken out by position, I think of it as one cohesive whole and write it as such. With that in mind, please be sure to check out the rest of my favorite Week 16 fantasy football plays in the other positional previews.

Top Running Backs For Week 16 Fantasy Football

Josh Jacobs (Packers) vs. Saints

  • Packers: -14.5
  • O/U: 42.5
  • TT: 28.5

Since the Week 10 bye, Josh Jacobs has had an Offensive Player of the Year-like run with 559 yards and nine TDs on 107 carries and 14 targets in five games while edging out presumed OPOY Saquon Barkley in our Fantasy Life Utilization Score (8.6 vs. 8.5, per our industry-leading Fantasy Life Utilization Report).

Over his past five games, Jacobs has a TD and 18-plus opportunities in each one and 100-plus yards in four of them. That's some bonafide league-winner stuff right there.

For the season, he leads the league with 18 goal-line carries.

I expect Jacobs to have similar usage and production again this week: The Packers are at home, where HC Matt LaFleur is 32-19 ATS (20.3% ROI) and 39-12 ML (17.0% ROI). They're massive favorites and likely to have a run-heavy game script. And the Saints are No. 30 in defensive rush DVOA (4.6%).

This is a total blow-up spot.

James Conner (Cardinals) at Panthers

  • Cardinals: -4.5
  • O/U: 47
  • TT: 25.75

Last week, James Conner had 138 yards and two TDs on 16 carries and five targets in a 30-17 win over the Patriots.

Also last week, Cowboys RB Rico Dowdle had 149 yards on 25 carries in a 30-14 win against the Panthers.

The Cardinals are better than the Cowboys, Conner is better than Dowdle, and the Patriots are (probably) better than the Panthers, who are No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (+7.8).

Sometimes it's that simple.

The transitive property suggests that Conner will have a big performance, and that could especially be the case without No. 2 RB Emari Demercado (back, IR) and maybe also No. 3 RB Trey Benson (ankle).

Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) at Cowboys

  • Buccaneers: -3.5
  • O/U: 48
  • TT: 25.75

Bucky Irving exited Week 14 early with hip and back injuries that had previously sidelined him in practice, but he returned to action last week with 113 yards on 15 carries and two targets, and in three full games since the Week 11 bye, he has amassed 450 yards and two TDs on 52 carries and 11 targets.

As favorites of more than a field goal, the Buccaneers could have a run-friendly game script, especially in the second half, which would likely result in a full workload for Irving against the Cowboys, who are No. 32 in defensive rush EPA (0.070).

I expect to see Irving run all over my Cowboys on Sunday Night Football.

The Checkdown

Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions -6.5, TT: 27.25) at Bears: No. 2 RB David Montgomery (knee) is out, and Gibbs has 683 yards and six TDs on 94 carries and 35 targets in the six games in which Montgomery has either been out entirely or had a snap share of no more than 30%. Gibbs has 281 yards and two TDs on 28 carries and 14 targets in his three career games against the division-rival Bears.

De'Von Achane (Dolphins Pick'Em, TT: 22.25) vs. 49ers: Achane has 961 yards and 10 TDs on 126 carries and 66 targets in his 10 games this year with QB Tua Tagovailoa, who is 20-12 ATS (19.4% ROI) and 24-8 ML (19.5% ROI) at Hard Rock Stadium, where the Dolphins have had the league's best home-field advantage over the past three and five years. When the sportsbooks post Achane's anytime TD prop, there's a good chance I'll bet it. He has scored in all but two of his games this year with Tagovailoa, and I have him projected with a 60.6% chance to score, which translates to -154 (per our Fantasy Life Odds Calculator).

Use our Fantasy Life Prop Finder to find the best odds available for almost any player-focused bet.

James Cook (Bills -14, TT: 30.25) vs. Patriots: Since the Week 12 bye Cook has 282 yards and three TDs on 34 carries and four targets in three games, and he has produced as a home favorite ever since emerging as the team's No. 1 RB last season (1,471 yards, nine TDs in 16 games). The Patriots are No. 29 in defensive rush DVOA (3.3%).

Jerome Ford (Browns +7.5, TT: 19.75) at Bengals: No. 1 RB Nick Chubb (foot, IR) suffered a season-ending injury last week, so Ford will likely serve as the lead back for the rest of the year. In Weeks 1-5—before Chubb's return from last season's devastating knee injury—Ford had a viable workload with a 67% snap rate, 52% rush share, and 54% route rate. The Bengals are No. 31 in defensive rush SR (46.4%).

Kendre Miller (Saints +14.5, TT: 14) at Packers: No. 1 RB Alvin Kamara (groin) suffered an in-game injury last week, and with him sidelined, Miller hit career-high marks with a 47% snap rate, 56% rush share, and 39% route rate. He could build upon that usage this week if Kamara is out, especially given that the Saints are also without WRs Chris Olave (concussion, IR) and Rashid Shaheed (knee, IR) and TE Taysom Hill (knee, IR). Where available, Miller is a waiver priority.

My Full Week 16 Rankings

Abbreviations

  • Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
  • Against the Spread (ATS)
  • Over/Under (O/U)
  • Team Total (TT)
  • Moneyline (ML)
  • Return on Investment (ROI)
  • Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
  • Expected Points Added (EPA)
  • Success Rate (SR)
  • Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
  • Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
  • AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
  • Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
  • Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
  • Short Down and Distance (SDD)
  • Long Down and Distance (LDD)
  • Dropback Over Expected (DBOE)