We’re back with more Week 18 NFL player props. 

Last week’s results are at the bottom of the article. 

We had a decent bounceback week with Kraft and O’Connell hitting their overs and Dorian Thompson-Robinson delivering easily in one of my favorite bets of the season.

With one week left in the regular season, let’s try and finish strong. 

For a full recap of how the individual NFL player props did, see the bottom of this piece (or click here).

I’ll again be adding in a few Underdog Pick’em lineups at the end of the article.

Just like usual, you can find all my Week 18 bets in our Fantasy Life Bet Tracker. It's free, as is our Betting Life Newsletter.

If you're a more serious sports speculator, you can also access the Fantasy Life weekly fantasy rankings and player projections with a FantasyLife+ subscription. 

For prop-specific tools, see our Fantasy Life Prop Finder as well as Player Prop Edge Table.

Let’s dive in and get to this week’s top five props …

NFL Player Props For Week 18

Tyrone Tracy Over 49.5 Rushing Yards

  • Odds: -115 (Caesars)
  • Projection: 57.0 

I wrote up Tracy in our Anytime TD article this week as well. He’s in an advantageous matchup vs the Eagles this week who are resting starters and likely starting Tanner McKee at QB. 

Here’s a little of what I wrote in that article.

“As of writing, Saquon Barkley is out, Jalen Hurts is out, Kenny Pickett is out, lots of defensive starters will be resting, and Tanner McKee will get the start at QB. That means Tracy should have better starting field position than he has had in recent weeks and will be up against backups when down in the red zone where he’s been the clear Inside the Five (I5) back for the Giants this season …

I see this game as being pretty simple from a game script perspective given we’ll have backups in play on the Eagles and nothing is on the line. That should mean plenty of carries for Tracy who has scored in 54% of his last 11 games played …”

I think this is a good spot for Tracy in general. 

As much as I like his anytime TD prop, I’m not opposed to playing him multiple ways, especially with his total opening at under 50 yards. The Giants have been in a ton of negative game scripts of late—which has affected Tracy’s overall rushing totals—but will likely be able to run the ball with more consistency this week. 

With Tracy projected in the mid-to-high 50s on Fantasy Life, I don’t see any reason to shy away from the rushing overs on the Giants rookie rusher this week.

Cole Kmet Over 12.5 Receiving Yards

  • Odds: -130 (bet365)
  • Projection 21.0

This prop is low for any team’s starting TE, let alone a very competent pass-catcher like Kmet. For his career, Kmet has averaged 32 yards per game and even in this down season is only a few yards off that mark (29 yards). He’s also averaged 10.5 yards per reception (only 2 yards lower than his opening prop) and posted 25-plus receiving yards in seven games this season.

Bigger picture-wise, nothing about this line makes sense. However, Kmet is coming off a game where he played on 57 snaps and saw a whopping zero targets. In fact, over his last four games, Kmet has seen just three targets (all were caught) and produced 23 yards.

It’s big picture vs small picture or macro vs micro, and I tend to side with the macro in situations like this. Kmet does appear to have been frozen out of this offense to an extent, but this line has fallen to such absurdly low levels that we now only need one designed play for him to hit his over.

The opponent this week also reeks of a potential breakout for Kmet, as the Packers have allowed the sixth-most yards to opposing TEs and Kmet himself has gone for 40-plus yards in each of his last four games vs the Packers. 

We have Kmet projected for 20 yards this week and I’d be fine to play this one up to 14.5. Even if it moved past that number, playing his alternate lines would have appeal for me this week as Kmet’s upside has proven to vastly outweigh the current low totals he’s stuck on in the prop market.

Marvin Mims Over 2.5 Receptions

  • Odds: -115 (bet365)
  • Projection: 3.0

Mims’ breakout may have come too late for my 2023 Russell Wilson Best Ball teams (RIP), but not too late for 2025 Week 18 prop betting. The Broncos wideout has asserted himself as their most potent slot receiver and set career highs in snaps played (28, and 30) in consecutive weeks. 

What’s impressive about Mims’ breakout is that even though he’s still only playing about 50% of the snaps, his usage has skyrocketed. 

He produced a 27% target share in Week 17 and has earned four or more targets in six straight starts.

Marvin Mims UR Game Log

 

Even more impressive has been Mim’s conversion rate. He’s been used plenty downfield but has still managed to catch 15 of the last 17 passes thrown his way since Week 15. 

We have Mims projected somewhat conservatively this week, but are still showing nice value on his receptions over, which is set at 2.5. Mims has gone over this now in five straight games and is playing a KC secondary that will be resting starters and struggled somewhat down the stretch. 

I like this over and would happily play it with some juice down to -130 if needed.

DK Metcalf Over 52.5 Receiving Yards

  • Odds: -120 (bet365)
  • Projection: 63.0

**I placed an early over on Metcalf when he opened at 52.5 in Free NFL Bet Tracker on Thursday. His number has moved significantly since then up to 61.5 at some books.  The early value is gone, but as I mentioned in my initial writeup below, Metcalf does have some reason to chase 60-plus yards this week, so I wouldn’t be opposed to playing this even at its new total. 

Metcalf has had a rough season. He started off strong with three 100-yard-yard games in his first four starts, but then picked up an injury and recently has seen his usage drop as Jaxon Smith-Njigba draws more primary targets.

Still, even with how poorly this season has gone at times for Metcalf, he’s still just 61 yards away from posting his fourth 1,000-yard receiving season of his career and his third in a row.

The Seahawks don’t have much to play for, but will be playing their starters and facing off against a Rams team that will be resting many of its best players. Metcalf and Geno Smith got back on track a couple of games ago against the Vikings, connecting for a long TD and 57 yards on just three catches.

While the Bears game was a huge step back for this offense (and football in general) I find it hard not to think Metcalf and Smith, who can add $2M to his bonus due in March with a Seahawks win, won’t right the ship in this spot. The Rams have undersized corners as it is and Metcalf posted 94 yards and a TD in a Week 11 last season vs L.A.

Aaron Rodgers Over 1.5 passing TDs 

  • Odds: +145 (bet365)
  • Projection: 1.3

I’m going to get a little nostalgic with my last official pick of the regular season.

Week 18 vs the Dolphins may in fact be Aaron Rodgers’ last NFL game. He’s 41, coming off his worst season as a pro, and not likely to be invited back by his current team. Even if this is the end for Rodgers, it’s been an insane career.

He’s currently stuck on 499 passing TDs and facing a Dolphins defense he just tore to shreds a few weeks ago, going for 339 yards and a TD against in Week 14.

While the Jets record stinks, if you look back at Rodgers’ game log since Davante Adams came to town, his production hasn’t been terrible. He’s thrown for multiple passing TDs in five of those 10 games (50% hit rate) and faces a Dolphins secondary that has allowed multiple passing TDs in six of their last 10 starts.

Right now, Rodgers is still as big as +145 (40% implied probability), and to me, that number is too big given the circumstances.

Maybe his Jets career ends the way it started (horrifically), but coming off one of the worst losses of his career, I can’t see one of the greatest to ever do not come out of the gates hot and potentially get that 500th career TD out of the way fast.

If he does, our bet will be in great shape to cash. I’d play this one down to +135.

Week 18 Underdog Pick’em Plays

Quick Note. You can find all my weekly Underdog plays in our FREE Pick’em Tracker on Fantasy Life, where we are now up well over 60 units on the season.

Keep checking there for more plays as the season wears on. 

Underdog Card 1 (3-way, 9.06x multiplier)

 

Underdog Card #2 (3-way, 8.97x multiplier) 

Week 17 recap

  • DTR Under 29.5 longest completion -115 ✅
  • O’Connell over 32.5 pass attempts -110 ✅
  • Breece Hall over 69.5 rush/rec yards -110 X
  • Rico Dowdle over 2.5 receptions -110 X
  • Tucker Kraft over 33.5 rec yards -110 ✅

For all of the best player prop edges on this week's slate, compare our in-house projections to available prices with our Player Prop Tool!

Player Prop Edges For Week 18