It is time to set our fantasy lineups for Week 2, and with that in mind, let's follow the data to analyze some of the biggest Week 2 fantasy football rankings risers and fallers to help you make those critical start-sit decisions.

Rankings Risers for Week 2

Jayden Daniels | QB | Commanders

Despite only 184 passing yards, Daniels bombarded the fantasy boxscore with 28.2 points thanks to his legs against the Buccaneers. Lamar Jackson was my favorite comparison for Daniels coming out of LSU, and the rookie didn't wait to live up to the hype in Week 1 with 88 yards and two TDs on the ground.

No other QB handled more of their team's designed rushing attempts or scrambled more than Daniels in Week 1.

 

While Daniels' levels are likely to come down, he has cemented his status as one of the top-five rushing QBs in the league. Since 2011, here are the QBs to handle 20-plus percent of their team's designed rushing attempts and deliver an 8%-plus scramble rate:

Jackson averaged only 184 yards per game in 2020 and notched a QB7 outcome, which might be the floor for a healthy Daniels in 2024. This week, the Commanders have the eighth-best team total (23.5) as three-point favorites over the Giants at home.

Daniels is a SMASH PLAY as the QB6 overall in the Fantasy Life consensus ranks.

Jared Goff | QB | Lions

Goff had a lackluster Week 1, with only 12.4 fantasy points, despite the Lions putting points on the board on 45% of their drives. However, the veteran QB gets another crack at a QB1 performance in Week 2 thanks to an elite matchup against a Buccaneers defense with a recent history of funneling points to the passing game.

The Commanders did the opposite of this in Week 1 against Tampa Bay, but it's hard to judge because of Jayden Daniels' contributions on the ground and the low-flying passing attack of Washington. Last year, the Buccaneers allowed the fifth-fewest yards per game on the ground (93.5) and the fifth-most through the air (269).

Dan Campbell loves to run the rock–the Lions posted a minus-6% dropback rate over expected (DBOE) in Week 1. That variable keeps Goff out of smash-play status, but the ingredients for a blowup game are present. Detroit has the highest team total on the slate (29.3), and the Buccaneers have enough weapons to challenge Detroit's struggling secondary.

Goff UPGRADES to low-end QB1 status as my No. 9 signal caller in Week 2. He should be in lineups over names like Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy.

Baker Mayfield | QB | Buccaneers

Mayfield lit up the fantasy scoreboard with 29.7 points against a porous Commanders secondary in Week 1. Now he gets a similar matchup against a Lions unit that allowed the most passing yards per contest in 2023 and got torched by the Rams for 317 yards last weekend.

The Bucs are seven-point underdogs in a game with the highest total (51.5) points. When teams fall behind and become predictable, passing-game efficiency can be impacted, which keeps Mayfield out of smash territory. Still, I have him graded in the same tier as other pocket passers with multi-TD upside, like Brock Purdy.

Mayfield UPGRADES to low-end QB1 status in Week 2.

Justin Fields | QB | Steelers

The Steelers are preparing like Justin Fields will start against the Broncos in Week 2. While the former first-round NFL Draft pick fell flat with 11.9 fantasy points in Week 1, the underpinnings of a high-end performance were there. Fields commanded 10 designed rushing attempts and tallied four scrambles on his way to the third-most rushing yards on the week at 57.

Denver was gashed for 146 yards in Week 1 by the Seahawks and gave up the third-most rushing yards per game in 2023 (137). The Steelers' identity is the run game, as evidenced by their -15% DBOE, so expect Fields to run early and often in this game.

Fields UPGRADES to borderline QB1 status. He is my QB14, right behind Mayfield but ahead of Matthew Stafford, Trevor Lawrence, and Joe Burrow.

James Conner | RB | Cardinals

Conner totaled 17.3 points in Week 1 against the Bills and posted an RB1-worthy Utilization Score. He dominated Arizona's backfield with 73% of the rushing attempts and handled the short-yardage work and two-minute offense.

 

We could see rookie Trey Benson eventually carve out a more significant role, but Conner looks like the clear-cut RB1 heading into a juicy matchup against the Rams in Week 2. Last weekend, Los Angeles coughed up 163 yards and two TDs on the ground against Detroit.

Conner is a SMASH PLAY, ranking 10 spots above industry consensus as my No. 14 player overall.

Derrick Henry | RB | Ravens

The Ravens trailed the Chiefs by four-plus points on 70% of their snaps, pushing the team into a pass-first mode. That development led to Baltimore dropping back to pass 69% of plays, taking Henry out of the game plan. However, King Henry was still the No. 1 rushing option with a 57% rush share.

 

This week, the Ravens are 10-point favorites against a hapless Raiders defense that allowed the Chargers to run wild for 176 yards in Week 1. Ohhhh, baby, this has the feel of one of those vintage 125-yard and two-TD performances.

Henry UPGRADES to low-end RB1 territory and offers RB1 overall in Week 2.

Jordan Mason | RB | 49ers

Christian McCaffrey is a longshot for Week 2, leaving the door open for an encore performance from Mason, who saturated fantasy boxscores with 22.2 points. In Week 1 against the Jets, Mason compiled 128 yards and a TD on 28 totes, dominating San Francisco's backfield.

 

The Vikings sanctioned the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game last season (99) and held the Giants to 74 in Week 1. While Mason might have a more challenging time than we saw against the Jets, San Francisco will remain committed to the run (-8% DBOE), and they boast the sixth-highest team total (25.8).

Mason UPGRADES to low-end RB1 territory and is my No. 15 player overall.

J.K. Dobbins | RB | Chargers

Dobbins ripped the Raiders for 135 yards and a TD on 10 carries in Week 1. The Chargers utilized a committee approach with Dobbins and Edwards closely dividing the carries.

However, Dobbins led the team with a 59% snap share, posting a sturdy 59% route participation versus only 17% for Gus Edwards.

 

While the rushing attempts were close, Dobbins got the hot-hand treatment in the second half, bogarting 57% of the attempts. The fifth-year back tallied 131 of his 135 yards in the final two frames.

This weekend, the Chargers face a Panthers defense that the Saints destroyed with 180 yards and two scores on the ground. Look for Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman to lean into their run-heavy ways (-3% DBOE) as seven-point favorites.

I have kept Dobbins in a tight timeshare (14 attempts and three targets) with Edwards in the projections, but he still comes out as the RB23 in this matchup. However, his opportunities could quickly push north of 20 if the Chargers dominate snaps or if Dobbins' splits more closely resemble the second half of Week 1.

Dobbins UPGRADES to low-end RB2 status and offers multiple paths to a high-end RB1 finish.

Deebo Samuel | WR | 49ers

Over the last three seasons, Samuel boasts a 28% target share when on the field without Christian McCaffrey. That trend continued in Week 1 when Samuel led the team with a 32% target share. 

 

He also accounted for 22% of the team's attempts. Samuel parlayed his 13 opportunities on Monday night into 77 total yards and a score.

Samuel is one of the most talented playmakers in the league, but he doesn't always get the volume in a crowded offense. However, there is one less mouth to feed this weekend, making him a strong candidate to reach 10-plus opportunities against the Vikings.

Samuel UPGRADES to mid-range WR1 status and ranks inside my top 20.

Mike Evans & Chris Godwin | WR | Buccaneers

Evans didn't disappoint in Week 1, securing five receptions for 61 yards and two scores. This weekend, the Bucs face a Lions secondary that the Rams torched for 317 yards in Week 1. For Tampa Bay to have a chance in this game as seven-point dogs, they will need their receivers to help keep pace with Detroit's explosive offense.

The Lions played man coverage a whopping 46% of plays in Week 1, and Evans is the ALPHA DOG against man coverage. Last season, he demanded a 37% target share against man coverage.

Godwin was also highly productive against the Commanders last week, securing all eight targets for 83 yards and a score. He led the team with a 28% target share, providing early returns in his new offensive scheme.

Godwin played from the slot on 43% of plays and was in motion at the snap 24% of the time. Motion at the snap has provided a 55% boost in fantasy scoring per route over the last three seasons.

Evans UPGRADES to the mid-range WR1 conversation (WR8), and Godwin UPGRADES to low-end WR2 territory (WR20).

DJ Moore | WR | Bears

Rome Odunze is day-to-day with an MCL sprain, and Keenan Allen continues to deal with a heel injury. That leaves the door open for a massive target share for Moore, whose robust underlying Week 1 utilization data was masked by a bad day from Caleb Williams. Moore commanded a mouth-watering 29% target share.

 

On paper, Houston looks like they should be a formidable pass defense, but last year, they gave up the ninth-most yards per game (252), and the Colts might have torched them for 300-plus with a few more accurate throws by Anthony Richardson, who missed at least two TDs.

Moore UPGRADES to mid-range WR2 territory and offers high-end WR1 upside if Williams has a bounce-back game.

Rapid Fire | TEs

Most of the TEs who were drafted early put up duds in Week 1. So, this is more of a holding-steady conversation. Don't panic, the underlying data was still robust for these players and they should pay off as soon as this weekend in your lineup.

  • Trey McBride | Cardinals: High-end TE1 profile with an 89% route participation and 30% target share. He registered a 7.7 Utilization Score despite only scoring eight points.
     
  • Mark Andrews | Ravens: Mid-range TE1 profile with a 75% route participation. The emergence of Isaiah Likely hurts, but Andrews is still young by the position's standards.
     
  • Dalton Kincaid | Bills: Mid-range TE1 with high-end TE1 upside, thanks to an 83% route participation. The second-year player got a lot of attention in Week 1, which can lead to duds, but working well ahead of Dawson Knox was a huge positive.
     
  • Sam LaPorta | Lions: High-end TE1 profile with an 81% route participation and a 19% target share. Jameson Williams' emergence increases target competition, but LaPorta remains one of the top young options.
     
  • Evan Engram | Jaguars: Mid-range TE1 profile with a 73% route participation and 21% target share. Engram usually eclipses an 80% route participation rate, but ultimately he still got his targets.
     
  • Travis Kelce | Chiefs: High-end TE1 profile with an 84% route participation and 15% target share. The passing game has more mouths to feed, but residing on a high-quality offense with a pass-first philosophy offsets those concerns.

Rankings Fallers for Week 2

Joe Burrow | QB | Bengals

Burrow was our Brass Balls Bench player at QB last week, but after a complete dud in Week 1 without Tee Higgins and an ailing Ja'Marr Chase, it won't take much guts to bench him in Week 2.

The Bengals are six-point dogs against the Chiefs, who allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards per game last season. The Ravens managed 273 yards in Week 1 but only averaged 6.7 yards per attempt with one passing TD in a script where they trailed by four-plus points over 70% of snaps.

Higgins didn't practice on Wednesday, and it is hard to know where Ja'Marr Chase's head is with the ongoing contract negotiations. While we should expect Cincinnati to eventually regain their elite passing-game form this season, there just isn't a reason to force Burrow into lineups with so many other great matchups.

Burrow DOWNGRADES to mid-range QB2 territory.

Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | Patriots

Stevenson made this list last week, with the Patriots projected as significant underdogs to the Bengals. Ultimately, that all changed when Tee Higgins pulled his hamstring and hold-in Ja'Marr Chase came down with a stomach bug. Those developments allowed New England to stay true to its run-first offense, and Stevenson's role was robust, leading to 21.6 points.

 

It is worth pointing out that Antonio Gibson suffered a hip injury late in the week that limited his role, adding to the things that aligned perfectly for Stevenson in Week 1.

This weekend, the Patriots take on the Seahawks, who allowed the second-most rushing yards per game last season, leaving the door open for an encore Week 1 performance. However, the Patriots sport the second-lowest team total on the slate (17.3) as four-point dogs.

Stevenson could still have RB1 utilization, but his offensive environment is highly unstable, leading to a DOWNGRADE to low-end RB2 territory.

Javonte Williams | RB | Broncos

Are you interested in a part-time back on one of the worst offenses in the NFL? I don't mean to sound harsh, but that is what we are dealing with in Denver. Last weekend, Williams managed only 44% of the rushing attempts with a 41% route participation rate.

 

That simply isn't enough in an offense with the third-worst team total (16.8) against a Steelers defense that held Bijan Robinson and the Falcons under 100 yards rushing.

Williams is a FADE in Week 2, ranking outside my top 75 players, and you can argue that is too generous.

Davante Adams | WR | Raiders

Adams rarely left the field in Week 1, posting a 98% route participation rate. However, rookie Brock Bowers led the team with a 23% target share.

 

The veteran WR will have his work cut out for him in Week 2, facing a Ravens secondary that allowed the seventh-fewest passing yards per game (218) last season. Yes, the Chiefs got them for 291 yards in the opener, but Gardner Minshew is not Patrick Mahomes.

Even if Adams gets his looks, it might not amount to much, given that Las Vegas boasts the lowest team total on the week, at 16 points.

Adams DOWNGRADES to borderline WR2 territory in a tough matchup.

Green Bay | WR | Packers

This one is pretty simple. Jordan Love won't play this weekend, which means Malik Willis will get the start. Willis has only played 222 snaps since being drafted in Round 3 of the NFL Draft by the Titans in 2022. It's a small sample, but it hasn't been good compared to the average NFL starter over the last three seasons.

  • Completion rate: 52% (NFL average 65%)
  • Yards per attempt: 5.2 (7.2)
  • Sack rate: 16% (6.1%)
  • Interception rate: 4.5% (2.2%)
  • TD rate: 0% (4.5%)

I expect a massive downgrade in passing yards per game until Love returns to the lineup. Fantasy Life projections have Willis at a generous 197 yards this weekend. It won't surprise me if the under hits on that projection.

Once you factor in the competition for snaps and targets across Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, and Dontayvion Wicks, this becomes a situation to avoid.

Sicko Starts

I want to throw in a few names for all my fellow fantasy managers that are in a SICKO league. If you are in a 12-team league with three starting WRs and two flexes, these are for you! Or you are in a more typical setup but need a name to help get you through injuries; these are for you!

Last Week: Sam Darnold, J.K. Dobbins, Jalen McMillan, Zach Ertz

Let's go, you sickos.

Daniel Jones | QB | Giants

We call these sicko starts for a reason. You must dig deep to start a QB that scored only 6.9 points in Week 1. However, there are reasons for optimism.

  • Jones handled 22% of the Giants designed rushing attempts in Week 1.
  • The Commanders gave up 289 yards and four TDs in Week 1.
  • Malik Nabers will have plus matchups all over the field.

Jones could scratch and claw his way to 18-plus fantasy points in this matchup. Stranger things have happened.

Zack Moss | RB | Bengals

I doubt that Moss lives up to the high bar set by Dobbins in Week 1 in a matchup where the Bengals are six-point dogs to Kansas City. However, the veteran back appears to be the clear-cut No. 1 option in Cincinnati after registering a 65% snap share and 69% rush share last weekend in a trailing game script against New England.

 

Moss projects for 14 attempts and three targets, giving him a chance to post another RB2 finish even if the game goes sideways.

Adonai Mitchell | WR | Colts

Mitchell posted an eye-popping 28% target share in his first game in the NFL. While he bombed with only 1.2 fantasy points, his day could have been MUCH bigger. 

In some alternate timelines, there are reports of 100-plus yards and two TDs. The Packers were a solid defense against the past last season, but in Week 1, they gave up 289 yards to the Eagles.

Mitchell is a boom-bust WR4 with WR2 upside.

Zach Ertz | TE | Commanders

Ertz was the one sicko miss in Week 1, but the process was right, y'all!!! The veteran was the undisputed TE1 for the Commanders, with a 79% route participation. His target share of 17% was also in low-end TE1 territory, but those pesky fantasy points didn't follow.

 

I am going back to the well with Ertz in Week 2 because he checks multiple boxes:

  • Playing time
  • Target-earning ability
  • Low target competition
  • Above average matchup

Ertz offers low-end TE1 upside if you are in a pinch due to David Njoku or Jake Ferguson's injuries.

Brass Balls Bench

I don't necessarily fully endorse these plays, but if you are willing to make big calls, these players could find their way to your bench if you are loaded with other options.

Last Week: Joe Burrow, Josh Jacobs, Brandon Aiyuk

  • RB - Travis Etienne: Etienne garnered only 46% of the team's rushing attempts in Week 1, with Tank Bigsby accounting for 50%. The coaching staff has been complimentary about Bigsby all offseason and alluded to lightning Etienne's load, so this might not be a fluke. The matchup against Cleveland this weekend also isn't great, leaving room to find a way for Etienne to hit the bench. There are scenarios where fantasy managers could have better RB combinations from later picks or the waiver wire. For example, Conner/Mason, Mixon/Mason, and Mixon/Conner are all combos where Etienne could hit the bench.
     
  • WR - George Pickens: Make no mistake about it. Pickens is emerging as a high-end WR talent. In Week 1, he notched a 32% target share despite Arthur Smith limiting him to a 76% route participation rate. Smith's oddball player rotations are part of the problem, especially when paired with the Steelers' run-first philosophy and spotty QB play. However, most weeks, I can overlook all of those things to get a talent like Pickens into the lineup, but in Week 2, Pickens could face shadow coverage from Patrick Surtain II, who locked down D.K. Metcalf on 24 of 25 routes in Week 1. Metcalf finished the day with only three receptions for 24 yards.