Week 2 Guillotine League Mailbag: Early-Season Strategy & FAAB Budget
With Week 1 in the rearview mirror, guillotine leagues across across the land are already down one competitor. That's because each week, the manager whose team scores the fewest points is chopped — leaving the remaining managers in the hunt for the guillotine league fantasy title.
That losing manager's players? They all hit the waiver wire, leading to some interesting FAAB strategies.
Each week, I'm opening up the guillotine league mailbag to answer questions from new guillotine players and experts alike. Let's start with some basics ahead of Week 2.
Early-Season Guillotine League Strategy
What is a guillotine league?
If you are currently reading a guillotine league-centric mailbag article, you are probably well-versed in what a guillotine league is. As a quick recap, instead of playing a weekly matchup against a singular opponent, the team with the lowest score each week is eliminated (or chopped, hence the namesake).
Think the opposite of Ricky Bobby’s mantra or how to survive a zombie apocalypse: “If you ain’t first, you’re last!” or “just be faster (score more points) than the slowest person (lowest scoring team).”
Each time a team is eliminated, their roster goes to waivers and can be bid on FAAB-style (free agent acquisition budget), usually $1,000. This budget does not replenish, cannot be traded and won’t do you any good if you have any left over at the end of the season.
What should be my strategy going into FAAB after the first week?
As pre-ayahuasca Aaron Rodgers would say, R-E-L-A-X. Don’t overreact after Week 1 if you don’t have to. If you assume each team has a random chance of being cut, the odds of survival based on probability alone would be 1/16 or 6.3%. That won’t jump above 10% until Week 7!
Now, you might want to do some spending if you, say, lost Jordan Love, Jordan Addison, Puka Nakua and Jake Ferguson yet managed to survive. Quarterbacks (and to an extent tight ends since you can start them at flex, though not advised!) should be easier to gauge based on the rest of the rosters in your league since only one can be started each week.
Players who survived and have a healthy quarterback are probably not going to spend on a second quarterback this early in the season, so don’t spend budget if you don’t have to, and don’t overspend if you don't have to. For example, Joe Burrow and Caleb Williams were the two most chopped QBs after Week 1. If you survived, I wouldn’t spend more than 5% of your FAAB budget if you think either of those QBs are an upgrade over whoever got you through Week 1.
Teams not desperate for upgrades at QB will probably be focused on the likes of Christian McCaffrey, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Chris Olave, all of whom were among the top 10 most cut players. You will see bids over 50% of FAAB on CMC. Don’t do it.
Week 2 Guillotine League FAAB Recommendations
Speaking of CMC, what should I do to replace him if I managed to survive?
Speaking as generally as possible, do what you can to maximize volume, i.e., touches. Hunt positive matchups. For example, the Colts ceded a league-high 31 touches per game to opposing running backs last season. They clearly did not improve, as they yielded a league-high 37 touches to Joe Mixon and company last week.
This week, if you are desperate, give Emanuel Wilson of the Packers a look. He’s locked into the AJ Dillon role to complement Josh Jacobs. Other poor running back defenses to target are the Panthers, Commanders and Broncos, all of which were in the top 10 in yielding touches to opposing running backs last season and are still languishing after Week 1.
Gus Edwards, JK Dobbins, Devin Singletary and Zach Charbonnet might be players available for cheap who will have better outlooks than normal this week. Other good options are traditional pass catchers: Justice Hill, Jerome Ford, Alexander Mattison and Jaleel McLaughlin all saw at least five targets last week and could be available (and certainly startable if at the end of your bench!).
I lost one of my leagues due to CMC sitting. I could have grabbed Jordan Mason, but I would have had to drop CMC. Should I have done that just to survive? I had a chance of surviving otherwise, but it didn’t work out.
You have to do whatever it takes to survive each week. No one else could have picked up CMC before you had a chance to bid on him to get him back. Handcuffs are always good for star running backs in guillotine leagues, as the backup will usually step into a similar volume role if the starter misses time.
If you are scoring toward the bottom of the league, then you need to start spending FAAB. If you are at the other end of the standings, watch the lower teams blow all their money. Still, I wouldn’t splurge more than 30% of your FAAB after the first week.
I lost Jordan Love due to injury and have no other QBs on my roster. Purdy will be chopped. How much FAAB dollars would you recommend I spend to secure him?
As mentioned, quarterback demand should be easiest to evaluate based on the roster makeup of other teams. This early in the season, you don’t want to spend FAAB unless you absolutely must. There might be cheaper alternatives that you can get for < 1% of your FAAB.
Dare I say it, but Daniel Jones is worth a look this week against Washington. Last season, no team gave up more passing yards and passing touchdowns than the Commanders, and Baker Mayfield just thrashed them last week.
Other opposing quarterback defenses to target are the Eagles, Jaguars and Cardinals, making Kirk Cousins, Deshaun Watson and Matt Stafford good value starts if they are available. If not, I would spend no more than 5% FAAB on Purdy. No one else is going to spend that much on him in this context.
I don’t need any help since I was already chopped, but I’m sure WR weak teams will have chances to bid on the likes of Puka Nacua, Amon Ra St. Brown and Marvin Harrison. What would you bid on them?
I wouldn’t go anywhere near Puka, but if you are deep at receiver and wanted to throw a couple bucks at him, this is the cheapest he will be.
St. Brown will bounce back and saw over 10 targets per game last season, so if I was desperate, I would be willing to spend 20-25% of FAAB.
Harrison is tricky since we’ve only seen one game. The Cardinals averaged nearly the same yards per rush than yards per pass attempt in the opener, so with the run game thriving and Harrison seeing only three targets, fourth most on the team, I wouldn’t want to rely on him at receiver just yet. If you are deep at receiver, I would throw no more than 5% FAAB at him.
Isiah Likely was somehow chopped/not drafted in my league? How much should I spend on him?
If you don’t have a reliable tight end — which will be half of your league — I would go up to 20% FAAB on him. He looks like what Kyle Pitts was supposed to be and saw nearly 30% of the Ravens’ targets last week.
I don’t believe Mark Andrews has converted to an offensive lineman, but Likely certainly looks legit and a crucial part of the Raven offense.
I cruised through Week 1, but all I hear you saying is to not spend any money if I don’t have to?
The longer your money lasts, the better position you will be in down the line. As teams get chopped, there will be more players available. After Week 1, likely only 1-2 drafted QBs, 3-5 drafted RBs/WRs and 1-2 drafted TEs will become available. Each week, only better and better players will become available. You can’t win a guillotine league after Week 1, but you certainly can lose it.
If you want a quick upgrade, throw a little FAAB on a Javonte Williams or Zamir White while everyone is looking at CMC. Go get Amari Cooper while everyone is fighting over Marvin Harrison, Chris Olave and Brandon Aiyuk.
Bidding war over Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews? Nobody is probably looking at Dalton Kincaid or Evan Engram. Or, if you like your team and finished in the top half of scores, just do nothing!
Are there any high-profile chops or widely available players that I should avoid this week if I’m desperate at a certain position?
I would be wary of Will Levis and Trevor Lawrence. They’re going up against the Jets and Browns, respectively. Those two defenses allowed the fewest and sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks last season, and they kept Brock Purdy and Dak Prescott mostly in check last week.
The Chiefs allowed the fourth-fewest touches per game to opposing running backs last season and limited the Ravens’ backfield to the fifth-fewest touches league-wide last week, so I want no part of the Bengals’ time share this week. I’ll give the nod to Zack Moss over Chase Brown if you have to pick.
The Cowboys’ secondary hasn’t missed a beat despite the loss of pick-six machine Daron Bland. They coughed up only a league-low 53 receiving yards to the Browns’ receivers last week after allowing the fifth-fewest receptions to the position last season. That means I’m fading Chris Olave (a top-10 chopped player after Week 1) and the rest of the Saints’ receivers this week.
The Titans allowed the fifth-fewest targets to tight ends last season and only allowed three receiving yards to the position last week, so I won’t be putting Tyler Conklin into any lineups this week.
I still need a guillotine-centric team name? Whatcha got?
Lamar Hackson, DeAndre Chopkins, Joe Mincin’, Sever Lawrence, De’Voff Achane, Axx Croxby, Rhamondre Cleavenson, Courtland Cuttin’, Hewa Tagavailoa, Jalen Spurts, CJ Shroud, Jabladeon Clowney, Block Purdy, Golden DecapiTate (OK maybe that’s enough).