It is time to set our fantasy lineups and with that in mind, let's follow the data to analyze some of the biggest Week 3 fantasy football rankings risers and fallers to help you make those critical start-sit decisions.
Rankings Risers for Week 3
Joe Burrow | QB | Bengals
Burrow came to life last weekend against the Chiefs for 258 yards and two TDs. The Bengals have remained committed to the passing attack despite the absence of Tee Higgins and the re-acclimation of hold-in Ja'Marr Chase. They are the No. 1 most-pass-happy offense in the NFL, with a 7.3% dropback rate over expected (DBOE).
We will see if Cincinnati gets Higgins back, but the connection between Chase and Burrow should run hot against the Commanders. Washington has one of the worst cornerback trios in the NFL, allowing a league-leading three passing TDs per game.
Burrow UPGRADES to QB6 status and is a SMASH play.
Derek Carr | QB | Saints
Don't look now, but the Saints offense is on fire with every lever Klint Kubiak pulls coming up triple 7s. Carr averages 22.1 points, and the Saints haven't had to lift a finger in the second half of games thanks to blowout conditions. New Orleans has held a lead of nine points or higher on 73% of plays–by far the most in the NFL.
The Saints are two-point favorites against the Eagles in a contest with the second-highest game total (49.5) on the slate per Vegas odds. This game offers major shootout potential, and the Eagles allow the 10th-most passing yards per game. Carr has averaged 222 yards per contest so far, but in a competitive game, he could push for 275-plus. The veteran QB ranks second in my passing yards projection behind Patrick Mahomes.
Carr winning the NFL MVP at +3500 is an intriguing bet if you buy into Kubiak and this revitalized offense. If you are reading this, Cooterdoodle's mom, don't bet the whole mortgage, but $500 could be a lot of fun.
Carr UPGRADES to QB10 against the Eagles.
Zack Moss | RB | Bengals
OK, you will notice several Bengals in the risers section, but I don't get to decide who plays the Commanders, so forgive me. We will get to the matchup in a second, but the biggest reason for Moss's ascension up the ranks is this: He is the clear-cut No. 1 back in Cincinnati.
Moss has reached a 65% or higher snap rate in each of his first two games and now has a 6.7 Utilization Score. Historically, backs in that range have averaged 12.2 points, making Moss a prime regression candidate in Week 3.
I expect the veteran back to punch in at least one score this weekend thanks to his domination of short-yardage snaps (SDD) and work inside the five-yard line paired with the Bengals league-leading team total of 28.9. Washington's defense has been a turnstile against the pass, but they have also sanctioned 121 yards per game on the ground.
Moss UPGRADES to mid-range RB2 status and offers RB1 upside (aka SMASH PLAY).
Zamir White | RB | Raiders
I have not been a Zamir White supporter, but the Raiders RB1 has three significant factors working in his favor:
- White surged to a 65% snap share and 53% route participation to fuel a decent 6.3 Utilization Score (RB3-worthy) in Week 2.
- The Raiders passing attack ranks fourth in the NFL with 267 yards per contest. That could force defenses to prioritize stopping Davante Adams and Brock Bowers.
- Las Vegas is a six-point favorite against a Panthers defense that allows 200 yards per game on the ground.
Whether I like the player or not, he must move up in the ranks after hitting the trifecta across utilization, environment quality, and matchup.
White has averaged 61% of the team's rushing attempts, which might translate to more than 15 attempts in this game script. Tack on two to three targets and the third-year back has a shot at 20 opportunities. I have White projected around 70 total yards and as a near coin flip (0.47) to score a TD on the ground.
White offers 15-point upside and UPGRADES to low-end RB2 territory.
Cam Akers | RB | Texans (Monitoring)
Akers hasn't ascended the ranks yet, but Joe Mixon (ankle) and Dameon Pierce (hamstring) missed practice on Wednesday. Akers looked sharp this preseason and was off to a hot start last weekend, replacing Mixon before a fumble inside the 10-yard line got him benched.
The Vikings are tough against the run. They were a top-six run defense last year and have allowed the eighth-least this season at 88 yards per game. Still, if Mixon and Pierce are out, Akers could make significant noise on an offense with immense upside in the TD department.
If Mixon and Pierce are out for Week 3, Akers will UPGRADE to low-end RB2 status and could permanently steal the backup job from Pierce. Don't leave him on your waiver wire.
Ja'Marr Chase | WR | Bengals
I am not going to bore y'all with a lot of words on this one. I will just say this: Ja'Marr Chase is due for a get-right game, and the Commanders can't cover this man. Mike Evans (23.1), Chris Godwin (22.3), and Malik Nabers (28.7) have all eaten against Washington.
Chase is a SMASH play–he UPGRADES to high-end WR1 status as my No. 2 WR behind CeeDee Lamb.
Brandon Aiyuk | WR | 49ers
Aiyuk has a 29% target share and 45% air yards share on 293 routes without Deebo Samuel on the field since 2022. That resulted in a sizzling 2.92 yards per route run (YPRR). Those are high-end WR1-worthy marks across the board.
With Samuel and Christian McCaffrey out, Aiyuk and George Kittle offer enormous upside against the hapless Rams defense. Los Angeles has coughed up the fifth-most points per game to opposing pass catchers (32.2).
The only thing keeping Aiyuk from pushing inside my top five at WR is a potential blowout victory that allows the 49ers to coast by halftime. San Francisco is a seven-point favorite.
Aiyuk UPGRADES to low-end WR1 and a must-start SMASH play.
Chris Olave | WR | Saints
Olave demonstrated borderline WR1 traits over his first two seasons and posted a 40% target share in Week 2. The third-year WR was tackled at the one-yard line against Dallas, keeping his fantasy output modest at 12.8.
The Saints will eventually need to keep the pedal to the medal for an entire game, and that could be this weekend as two-point favorites over the Eagles. Alvin Kamara and Rashid Shaheed have had their breakout performances already; look for Olave to get things going against a secondary allowing the fifth-most passing yards (251) and the second-most passing TDs (2) per game.
Olave UPGRADES to borderline WR1 territory.
Khalil Shakir | WR | Bills
Shakir is currently the WR30, averaging 11.9 points per game, but there is room for much more. In Week 1, Shakir was shackled with a pedestrian 70% route participation. He played a more prominent role in Week 2 at 85% and was the best WR on the field for the Bills, with a mouth-watering 29% target share. However, a blowout win over the Dolphins allowed the Bills to coast in the second half, keeping Shakir's fantasy points (10.6) in check despite an improved Utilization Score at 6.3.
We should get a more competitive game from the Jaguars than last Thursday's Tua Tagovailoa-less Dolphins attack. The Jags have been decent against the run while allowing the third-most passing yards per game (262) this season. With the third-highest team total on the weekend (26), there is a lot to like about Shakir.
Shakir UPGRADES to high-end WR3 territory.
George Kittle | TE | 49ers
This feels like cheating, but I can't get away from a condensed 49ers passing attack with Kyle Shanahan scheming up looks for two pass-catchers rather than four. Since 2022, Kittle has a 27% target share, 26% air yards share, and 2.67 YPRR on plays without Samuel.
Those are high-end TE1 numbers, y'all! Like Aiyuk, the superstar TE gets a matchup against a secondary that has been writing blank checks to opposing receivers. I don't think I need to say much more on this one.
9/20 Note: Kittle popped up on the injury report with a hamstring issue on Thursday. We must keep an eye on his status and this dampens the Week 3 outlook even if he plays.
Kittle UPGRADES to top-50 status overall and is my TE1.
Dallas Goedert | TE | Eagles
Goedert only has a 14% target share, but his three-year average is 17%, and with A.J. Brown likely sidelined again, there is upside for a spike game. The veteran TE played every passing play against the Falcons in Week 2 and now boasts a sky-high 88% route participation.
The Eagles face off against a Saints offense that will push them to score points. The game has the second-highest total on the slate, and the Eagles rank eighth in team total (23.8).
Goedert UPGRADES to mid-range TE1 status as my TE7.
Rankings Fallers for Week 3
Matthew Stafford | QB | Rams
Stafford averages the second-most passing yards per game (267) but will be without his top two weapons, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. There is a chance the veteran piles up some garbage-time production as an eight-point dog to the 49ers, but the chances of this passing attack producing the explosive plays and TDs we need from a pocket passer are minimal.
I am starting Justin Fields, Aaron Rodgers, Geno Smith, and Kirk Cousins over Stafford. I would even play Gardner Minshew over Stafford. I am also comfortable releasing Stafford in non-super flex formats; we don't have three to four weeks to hold a bench spot for a mid-range QB2.
Stafford DOWNGRADES to bottom-of-the-barrel material and shouldn't be in lineups.
Josh Jacobs | RB | Packers
Jacobs came through with 15 fantasy points thanks to a juicy matchup against the worst run defense in the NFL. However, that won't be the case this weekend against a Titans unit allowing the ninth-fewest rushing yards per game (92.5). Tennessee also vastly improved their secondary in the offseason, only giving up 135 yards per game through the air.
Look for the Titans to commit to putting the clamps on Jacobs on the ground with their secondary capable of handling Malik Willis without overcommitting to the passing game. The bookmakers also aren't sold on Willis–the Packers have the third-lowest team total (16.8) in Week 3.
Note: Jordan Love logged a limited practice session on Wednesday and Thrusday. If he plays, Jacobs will move back up the ranks.
Jacobs will get his touches but DOWNGRADES to RB2 territory as long as Love is out. I have him six spots below industry consensus in my flex rankings.
Kyren Williams | RB | Rams
Williams boasts a top-nine Utilization Score (8.3) but ranks as the RB20 with 14.8 points per game. If the Rams were healthy, he would be a buy-low target, but that isn't the case. With Kupp and Nacua out of the lineup, the upside of this offense has vanished, and oddsmakers agree. The Rams have a bottom-seven team total (18) and are seven-point dogs to the 49ers in Week 3.
The third-year back should get his opportunities. However, without the threat of an explosive passing attack, look for the 49ers to focus on shutting down Williams and forcing an unproven receiving corps to beat them.
Williams DOWNGRADES to mid-range RB2.
Miami | WR | Dolphins
Skylar Thompson averaged 179 yards passing in three starts as a rookie in 2022. While he could improve on that as a third-year QB, we must adjust our expectations. The upside for a massive 300-plus yard passing day is now an outlier, and the downside for a 150-yard outing is a realistic outcome.
The saving grace for the Dolphins is how concentrated the passing attack is and the schematic advantages that Mike McDaniel will deploy. Those factors and Tyreek Hill's and Jaylen Waddle's talent keep Miami's duo in play, but both get significant downgrades.
Hill DOWNGRADES to high-end WR2 territory while Waddle DOWNGRADES to mid-range W3 status.
Sicko Starts of the Week
I want to throw in a few names for all my fellow fantasy managers that are in a SICKO league. If you are in a 12-team league with three starting WRs and two flexes, these are for you! Or you are in a more typical setup but need a name to help get you through injuries; these are for you!
Week 1: Sam Darnold (hit), J.K. Dobbins (hit), Jalen McMillan (hit), Zach Ertz (miss)
Week 2: Daniel Jones (hit), Zack Moss (miss), Adonai Mitchell (miss), Zach Ertz (hit)
Season: 5 of 8
Let's go, you sickos.
Aaron Rodgers | QB | Jets
If Klint Kubiak is pulling triple-7s, Nathaniel Hackett is the cooler who ruins the immaculate vibes at a hot craps table–don't give that man the dice. Roll them yourself, Aaron!
The Jets face off against a Patriots secondary, allowing the eighth-most passing yards per contest (246) while limiting opponents to only 58 on the ground. New York sports the fifth-best team total (25.3) as two-point favorites over New England, making this a choice spot to get Rodgers into your lineup if you are hurting at QB.
Rodgers UPGRADES to the high-end QB2 Tier in Week 3.
D'Andre Swift | RB | Bears
Placing Swift into your starting lineup while averaging 5.6 points per game feels pretty gross. However, he posted 68% and 67% snap shares over the first two games, and his 6.5 Utilization Score is in line with RB2 to RB3 production.
The Bears offense has been atrocious, but Swift gets a great matchup against a Colts defense, allowing a whopping 237 yards per contest. What happens when two movable objects clash? I am not sure, but I am willing to find out. Give me an RB with a chance to handle 60% of the rushing attempts against Indianapolis.
Swift UPGRADES to low-end RB2 territory and offers 15-point potential in PPR formats.
Jordan Whittington | WR | Rams
Okay, this is a true sicko start. We have an EXTREMELY SMALL SAMPLE, but after Kupp left the game in Week 2, Whittington posted a 91% route participation and played 71% of plays from the slot.
Talent is a prerequisite for unlocking production at the WR position, which is a major unknown for the late-round NFL Draft pick. However, Whittington was impressive in the preseason, and if there is one coach who can use scheme as a force multiplier at WR, it is Sean McVay.
Demarcus Robinson is the safer Rams option if you are just looking for floor, but I am putting my chip on Whittington if you want upside.
If you are desperate, Whittington offers long-shot WR3 potential with WR2 upside.
Tyler Conklin | TE | Jets
Conklin is currently the TE46 on the season, BUT hear me out! He ranks third in route participation and has historically been a borderline TE1 as a target earner. When you combine those two things, you typically run into low-end TE1 fantasy outings. Per my notes above on Rodgers, the Jets have a decent matchup this weekend, which slightly sweetens the pot.
Conklin's profiles almost identically to high-end TE2s like Hunter Henry and Zach Ertz. If you are hurting at the position and they are gone, Conklin is your guy.
Brass Balls Bench of the Week
I don't necessarily fully endorse these plays, but if you are willing to make big calls, these players could find their way to your bench if you are loaded with other options.
Week 1: Joe Burrow (hit), Josh Jacobs (miss), Brandon Aiyuk (hit)
Week 2: Travis Etienne (miss, but Bigsby was injured), George Pickens (hit)
J.K. Dobbins | RB | Chargers
Dobbins has made this column as a sicko start and upgrade over the last two weeks, but with a matchup against the Steelers on tap and the fourth-lowest team total (17 points), it is time for a brake tap in Week 3. Dobbins has been electric but is still in a timeshare with Gus Edwards.
Everyone repeat it with me: We love J.K. Dobbins! We love J.K. Dobbins! We love J.K. Dobbins!
Okay, we now know that the universe understands us and we can face reality. This isn't a great spot for the potential comeback player of the year.
Dobbins DOWNGRADES to borderline RB2 territory.
Jaylen Waddle | WR | Dolphins
I realize I have already called Waddle out in the fallers section due to Skylar Thompson. However, I would be remiss if I didn't mention him here because Waddle is still in 76% of starting lineups on Yahoo as of Wednesday night. Waddle's floor is extremely low, and the ceiling boom game is outlier material, so he should be in fewer lineups.
I am hands down starting Tank Dell over Waddle this weekend and am willing to bench Waddle for Shakir if you are feeling big brass ballsy.
