Welcome back to the weekly NFL Pick’em Plays article on Fantasy Life.

If you’re new, last year I put together a five-way Pick'em ticket using Underdog’s selection of Higher/Lower offerings. I would also sometimes include some extra suggestions at the end and a list of “play to levels” using our Fantasy Life projections.

This year, I’m changing things up a bit. We’ll still be doing the Underdog section (and a full ticket), but I’ll also be doing entries for PrizePicks and Sleeper. The writeups will be a little shorter but there will be more picks. 

Less boring analysis from me, and more of those sweet, sweet picks, driven by our FantasyLife+ projections and our awesome new Pick’em Lineup Builder—which, once you try it, you will seriously never understand how you got by without it. 

We didn’t always hit the nuts, but overall last year was very profitable, especially if you followed along via the article and our FREE Underdog Pick’em Tracker on Fantasy Life, where I load tickets as I make them. 

Let’s get to the Week 3 plays.

Underdog Pick’em (5-Way; 65.34x)

As you probably noticed, I am going big with this week’s Underdog card with a five-way play for a 65.34x return. If you use the Underdog app to make your pick’em tickets, you have the ability to use alternate lines (eg. raise the player totals) which obviously makes it harder to win, but also gets you access to bigger payouts. 

I’m using those alternate lines on all my plays for a couple reasons, but mainly because I have five players I believe have the upside to beat their regular totals by margin this week. 

Bo Nix and Courtland Sutton haven’t gelled for many big plays this year, but they face a Tampa Bay defense that traditionally defends the run well, and doesn’t mind giving up yards through the air, especially to WRs. The Buccaneers allowed Amon Ra St. Brown to go for 11 catches last weekend. St. Brown, like Sutton, doesn’t typically rely on outright explosiveness to create separation. The Broncos have also averaged 38.5 pass attempts through two games and can’t run the ball effectively (3.7 YPC) so boosting Sutton to 39.5 and Nix to 199.5 in this spot feels like a solid risk/reward move, especially with our Pick’em lineup builder liking the HIGHER on their regular projections. 

 

Jahmyr Gibbs and Chuba Hubbard were two RBs who were easy sells to boost as well. The Lions threw the ball 55 times last week and should be looking to run more with the explosive Gibbs this week in a road game against Arizona. Hubbard faces a Raiders defense that allowed 6.1 YPC last week and should get more work with Andy Dalton under center and more likely to lead the offense on sustained drives. 

Finally we have Pat Freiermuth, who has had a 21% target share through two weeks and faces a Chargers defense that has allowed the fourth most receptions to the TE position this season. Freiermuth in the Arthur Smith system has already caught 8 passes through 2 games and could be in line for a heavier workload with the Chargers being a step up in competition. 

I like HIGHERs on all five of these players' regular lines—which you can play for a 20x return—but with solid matchups across the board, it’s as good a time as any to take a shot with Underdog’s alternate lines and aim for a bigger payout. 

PrizePicks (6-Way; 20x)

I went a little more traditional for our PrizePicks ticket this week, but still made it a 6-way lineup if you want to use it for flex Friday. 

The FL+ projections are bullish on both Anthony Richardson (proj. 18.3 FP) and Alec Pierce (proj. 36.1 rec yards), making them an easy correlation stack to start with. The Bears are coming off a deflating Sunday Night loss and both of these players can hit these totals on just one or two plays if we’re being honest. 

On the other side of the Colts game, the Bears’ O-Line should have Caleb Williams (proj 4.9 rush attempts) running for his life again against a good Colts pass rush, making the More Than on his 4.5 rush attempts appealing as a comeback play. 

Not having to take a reduced payout on PrizePicks to use the More Than 0.5 TDs (rush/rec) on Derrick Henry this week also felt like a gift. Henry’s price to score an anytime TD on some sportsbooks is as short as -170, and Dallas ranks dead last in EPA against the rush through two weeks.  

Sticking with that game, if we like Henry to score then it also makes sense that Dallas could find itself in more pass-friendly game scripts as a result. Baltimore’s secondary this year also ranks just 30th in success rate per dropback, making this a good spot to play for a big game from Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb, who returned to practice on Thursday.