It is time to set our fantasy lineups and with that in mind, let's follow the data to analyze some of the biggest Week 4 fantasy football rankings risers and fallers to help you make those critical start-sit decisions.

Risers in the Rankings for Week 4

Kyler Murray | QB | Cardinals

Murray averages 20.2 fantasy points per game and lands a matchup against the Commanders, who allow the most fantasy points per game (24.4) to opposing signal callers. Washington hasn't just run into tough competition-–they have boosted opponents' passing yards by 43 yards. Per our fantasy football DvP tool, which adjusts for opponents faced with Fantasy Boost, Washington's adversaries have enjoyed a 7.1 fantasy point surge over their average.

Despite averaging only 212 yards through the air, the Fantasy Life projections have Murray at 250 yards this weekend. That aligns with what we have seen other opponents accomplish against a secondary that boasts three of the worst-graded corners per PFF:

Murray will feast as the Cardinals rightfully carry the No. 1 team total at 27.3 points in a game where the Commanders and Jayden Daniels (my QB4 this week) offense should be able to keep Arizona pushing for more as four-point dogs.

Murray is a SMASH play and UPGRADES to the Fantasy Life consensus QB1 overall.

Justin Fields | QB | Steelers

After 11.9 and 11.4-point performances, Fields came alive with 19.4 in Week 3 against the Chargers. His underlying utilization tells us that we should expect more similar outings. The former first-round NFL Draft selection ranks fifth in designed rush attempt share (19%) and fifth in scramble rate (10%), resulting in 8.3 rushing attempts per contest.

The passing production has yet to arrive, with only 172 yards per contest, operating in an offense with the 31st-lowest DBOE (-10%). However, since 2011, seven QBs have averaged over eight rushing attempts and under 200 passing yards. They averaged 18.9 fantasy points per contest, which aligns with Fields' Week 3 production.

The Colts have green-lighted the second-most rushing yards per game (179), which has disguised their overall pass coverage numbers. Indianapolis is the fourth-best matchup in pass-yards boost, with opponents have averaging 37 yards over their average in 2024. Fields gets a two-way go in this matchup.

Note: Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren missed practice on Wednesday. Fields could handle an even more prominent role in the rushing attack if either cannot play.

Fields UPGRADES to low-end RB1 status (jk jk y'all I mean low-end QB1, I just couldn't resist).

Alvin Kamara | RB | Saints

Kamara is the RB1 in fantasy, averaging 27.2 points per game. He has the No. 4 Utilization Score at the position, thanks to a 65% snap share (15th), 59% rush share (8th), and a 19% target share (2nd).

Historically, players with his Utilization Score have finished as an RB1, with the majority notching top-six finishes. Given the Saints depth chart, his current utilization looks sustainable if Kamara can stay healthy. We could see Taysom Hill and Jamaal Williams vulture some TDs, but Klint Kubiak seems to understand what he has in Kamara.

The Saints square off against the Falcons, who allow the fifth most rushing yards per game (151). Atlanta doesn't have the firepower on their front seven to challenge the Saints' wide zone scheme like we saw from the Eagles.

Kamara is a top-three overall play this weekend.

Zack Moss | RB | Bengals

Moss is becoming a mainstay in this column thanks to operating as the Bengals' clear-cut No. 1 back. What many thought would be a committee with Chase Brown has been anything but, with Moss handling 65%, 82%, and 77% of the snaps. Moss has also dominated high-leverage opportunities with 80% of the carries inside the five-yard line and an 87% snap rate in the two-minute offense. His 7.7 Utilization Score is in high-end RB2 territory.

Last weekend, Moss came through with 20.7 points in a solid matchup against the Commanders. Now he faces a Panthers defense licensing 151 yards per contest–the fifth-most in the NFL. Based on Vegas oddsmakers, the Bengals claim the No. 2 team total (26.8), which could mean multiple TD opportunities for Moss.

Moss is a SMASH PLAY as a top-25 flex option in Week 4.

Devin Singletary | RB | Giants

Singletary has hogged 73% of the backfield snaps and handled 62% of the rushing attempts for the Giants. While the offensive line is below average (No. 24 in PFF Run Blocking Grade), that hasn't stopped Singletary from averaging 15.5 points per game, notching RB31, RB13, and RB8 finishes.

Over the last four years, the average RB with a Utilization Score similar to Singletary has averaged 14 points, with 76% posting an RB2 season. We could see more from the rookie Tyrone Tracy as the season progresses, but this is Singletary's backfield for now.

The Giants are five-point underdogs to the Cowboys, which isn't ideal, but the recipe for neutralizing the Dallas defense is a commitment to the run. The Cowboys simply don't have a front seven designed to stop the ground attack–especially at defensive tackle, where they rank bottom-of-the-barrel in Run Defense Grade at PFF.

  • Mazi Smith (DT): 126 of 126 for interior defensive linemen
  • Osa Odighizuwa (DT): 116 of 126 for interior defensive linemen

Look for the Giants to try and mimic recent offenses that have punched the Cowboys in the mouth with the run game to take the sting out of their pass rush. Dallas has blessed opposing rushing attacks like manna from heaven, giving up the most rushing yards per game (186) in the NFL.

Singletary UPGRADES to mid-range RB2 status.

Marvin Harrison | WR | Cardinals

Harrison averages 15.9 fantasy points per game, and his underlying utilization backs up his performance. He has a 25% target share and 47% air yards share, which would be much more talked about if not for the insane start by Malik Nabers.

I have already outlined how juicy this matchup is in the Kyler Murray write-up above, so I won't rehash all those details. However, I will leave you with how top WRs have fared against the Commanders' defense over the last two seasons in fantasy points:

Sorry for all the scrolling, but it isn't my fault–it's up to the Commanders to stop this!

Harrison UPGRADES to WR No. 4 and is a top-10 SMASH PLAY.

Khalil Shakir | WR | Bills

Shakir's 73% route participation could be better, but he leads the Bills with a 21% target share and 14.3 points per game. When you watch this team play, he is the WR that stands out, and it looks like the connection between him and Josh Allen is blossoming. Over the last two games, Shakir has a 28% targets per route run (TPRR), which is high-end WR1 stuff.

The Bills-Ravens matchup offers the fourth-highest game total (46.5) with the Buffalo as three-point dogs. The Bills' passing attack ranks fourth in YPA (8.7), but they are middle of the pack in passing yards per game (212) thanks to leading game scripts. 

This squad has led by eight or more points on 28% of plays–the second-most in the NFL. Their -1.7% DBOE ranks 19th, a much better indicator of their tendencies than their 32% dropback rate (28th).

In a competitive environment against a secondary allowing a league-leading 315 yards per game, the ingredients are present for a big game from Shakir.

Shakir UPGRADES to borderline top 50 flex status as my WR29.

WR Rapid Fire

We have many other potential upgrade options at the WR position this week, but we are in a wait-and-see mode with injury reports.

  • DJ Moore: Moore has a 26% target share and a matchup against the Rams defense that got punked by Jauan Jennings last weekend. However, we don't know if Keenan Allen (limited practice on Wednesday) will return. If Allen can't go, Moore locks in as a mid-range WR2 with WR1 upside.
     
  • Jayden Reed: Reed is the Packers' most prolific playmaker and leads the team with a 23% target share. Green Bay faces a Vikings defense playing much better in 2024, but they still allow the second-most passing yards per game (they have had tough matchups). Jordan Love was limited in Wednesday's practice. If Love returns, Reed UPGRADES to mid-range WR2 status. If Love is out, Reed is a boom-bust WR3.
     
  • Eagles WRs: Neither A.J. Brown (hamstring) nor DeVonta Smith (concussion) practiced on Wednesday. Smith has a 31% target share in the last two contests without Brown, and the Eagles carry the No. 7 team total (24). If Smith clears the concussion protocol and Brown isn't ready to return, Smith will UPGRADE to WR1 status.
     
  • Stefon Diggs: Tank Dell suffered ribs and wrist injuries in Week 3 and did not practice on Wednesday. If he doesn't play, this passing attack will consolidate around Diggs and Nico Collins against a Jaguars defense that has surrendered the third-most passing yards per game and sports the ninth-worst PFF coverage grade (62.2). If Dell misses the game, Diggs will morph from a high-end WR3 to a borderline WR1.

Tyler Conklin | TE | Jets

Conklin was the Sicko Start for the TE position last weekend, and he gets an upgrade heading into Week 4. While some of his move up the ranks ties to the underperformance of the position, Conklin has a couple of things working for him.

  • He ranks No. 1 in route participation at 90%.
  • The Broncos have shut down opponents' outside WR1s (see Garrett Wilson in the rankings fallers below).

Last weekend, the Buccaneers fed Cade Otton a 24% target share–-by far his highest mark of the season. Now, the Broncos will be without starting middle linebacker Alex Singleton.

Conklin ranks 30th in target share (10%) at the position, but if he can stay closer to his career average in TPRR (17%) like last week, he will finish as a low-end TE1 this year.

Conklin UPGRADES to borderline TE1 territory.

Fallers in the Rankings for Week 4

Patrick Mahomes | QB | Chiefs

Offseason additions Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy inspired hope around a vintage Patrick Mahomes season. However, with Brown out and Worthy struggling to make his mark, this offense looks more like the 2023 version, where Mahomes notched the lowest PPG average (18.8) of his career.

I don't want to count Mahomes out for the season because he is simply too good, and we could see Kelce return to form or a step forward from Worthy. If both of those things happen, the turnaround could occur quickly. However, this week, I have Mahomes below names like Kyler Murray, Jayden Daniels, C.J. Stroud, and Joe Burrow. All those QBs except Stroud are outscoring Mahomes (16.2 PPG) and have better matchups.

Mahomes DOWNGRADES to low-end QB1 territory.

J.K. Dobbins | RB | Chargers

Dobbins was a buy-low recommendation in the Utilization Report this week after distancing himself from Gus Edwards in snaps (64% vs. 36%) and attempts (75% vs. 15%) in Week 3. While that recommendation still stands, Dobbins could be in for a rough Week 4 against the Chiefs because the Chargers are incredibly unhealthy.

  • Justin Herbert (high-ankle) is questionable after a limited practice on Wednesday. Even if he plays he won't be 100% and could get knocked from the game like last weekend.
  • Starting tackles Joe Alt (MCL) and Rashawn Slater (Pectoral) did not practice on Wednesday and are questionable. I consider Alt more on the doubtful side of things.
  • Safety Derwin James won't play due to suspension.
  • Defensive end Joey Bosa (hip) is questionable after missing practice on Wednesday.

To put a bow on this, the Chiefs won't be facing the actual Chargers team. While Jim Harbaugh is a staunch believer in the run (27th ranked DBOE of -6.4%), they could be forced to throw more as nine-point dogs. Additionally, the Chiefs know that the Chargers will want to protect their injured or backup QB with the run game. Expect Kansas City to load the box to stop the run game.

The Bolts carry the second-lowest team total (15.5) on the slate and are a team to avoid in fantasy this weekend.

Dobbins DOWNGRADES to borderline RB2 territory.

Garrett Wilson | WR | Jets

This downgrade might feel like a cruel joke, but it isn't. Wilson was also a buy-low in the Utilization Report this week because his underlying data (29% target share and 42% air yards share) tells us he has a WR1 talent profile. However, the Broncos have put the clamps on the No. 1 outside WR in all three games.

Pickens was much closer to a bigger day, but some sheesh plays got in the way. Wilson still has the talent to win in this matchup, but Aaron Rodgers could opt to target better matchups on the inside against the Broncos linebackers and safeties.

Wilson DOWNGRADES to mid-range WR2 status.

Sicko Starts

I want to throw in a few names for all my fellow fantasy managers that are in a SICKO league. If you are in a 12-team league with three starting WRs and two flexes OR you are in a more typical setup but need a name to help get you through injuries or bye weeks, these are for you!

Week 1: Sam Darnold (hit), J.K. Dobbins (hit), Jalen McMillan (hit), Zach Ertz (miss)

Week 2: Daniel Jones (hit), Zack Moss (miss), Adonai Mitchell (miss), Zach Ertz (hit)

Week 3: Aaron Rodgers (hit), D'Andre Swift (miss), Jordan Whittington (miss), Tyler Conklin (hit)

Season: 7 of 12

Let's go, you sickos.

Caleb Williams | QB | Bears

Williams erupted for 363 passing yards and two TDs in a wild game script where he threw the ball 52 times against the Colts. However, if you watched the game, you know how wheels-off the Bears offense looked, with Williams scrambling around and trying to make things happen in what seemed like every play. That isn't sustainable.

However, Williams gets a juicy matchup against a Rams defense that allows the fifth-most passing yards per game (259). Brock Purdy sliced this secondary up for 292 yards and three TDs despite not having Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, or George Kittle.

Williams is as boom-bust as they come, but the boom could be sky-high this weekend. He offers mid-range QB1 upside.

Jerome Ford | RB | Browns

Ford now has a 70%-plus snap share in two of three weeks, and his Utilization Score sits at 7.2 for the season, which makes him an RB2. This weekend, the Browns face the Raiders, who have conceded the fourth-most yards per game on the ground (153).

Ford UPGRADES to top-50 status as a flex option.

Darnell Mooney | WR | Falcons

Drake London looks like the WR1 for Atlanta, but Mooney is challenging Kyle Pitts to be the No. 2 option in the passing attack. The Falcons' WR free-agent acquisition has a 23% target share–well ahead of Pitts (15%)–-and has reached a Utilization Score of 7.0 in his last two games. The Saints have endorsed the fifth-most receiving yards per game (257), and the Falcons have a top-10 team total (22.5).

Mooney UPGRADES to low-end WR3 status and offers WR2 upside.

Brass Balls Bench

I don't necessarily fully endorse these plays, but if you are willing to make big calls, these players could find their way to your bench if you are loaded with other options.

Week 1: Joe Burrow (hit), Josh Jacobs (miss), Brandon Aiyuk (hit)

Week 2: Travis Etienne (miss, but Bigsby was injured), George Pickens (hit)

Week 3: J.K. Dobbins (hit), Jaylen Waddle (hit)

Season: 5 of 7

Anthony Richardson | QB | Colts

Richardson will rebound in the fantasy boxscore soon, but this weekend's matchup against the Steelers isn't ideal. The Steelers are the second-most stingy run defense in the NFL and have allowed the sixth-fewest passing yards per game. Pittsburgh's competition has been soft in two out of three matchups, with games against the Broncos and a beat-up Chargers squad. However, it is hard to have confidence in Richardson turning the tide as a passer, considering his 49.3% completion rate.

I have Dak Prescott, Brock Purdy, Sam Darnold, and Justin Fields ahead of Richardson, who DOWNGRADES to high-end QB2 status.