Week 4 Fantasy Football Storylines: Ian's Manifesto

And just like that: Week 4 is upon us. Let's break down some ball!

Every week I will be going through 10 key storylines ahead of all the NFL action, focusing on key fantasy-related trends, the week's biggest mismatches, my personal rankings of every game, bold predictions, and much more.

As always: It's a great day to be great.

1. Is it time to bump Patrick Mahomes down the ranks?

Look, nobody is debating Mahomes' status as the NFL's best real-life QB. He's also the QB2 in all-time career fantasy points per game behind only Josh Allen. The highs over the years have been higher than any mere mortal can even dream of achieving.

That said: We now have 23 games of evidence that the current version of Mahomes isn't the world's most fantasy-friendly QB.

Patrick Mahomes among 33 QBs with 300-plus dropbacks in 2023-24 seasons (including playoffs)

• Fantasy points per game: 17.5 (No. 8)
• EPA per dropback: +0.160 (No. 5)
• Completion percentage over expected: +3.8% (No. 7)
• PFF pass grade: 84.4 (No. 4)
• Passer rating: 93.6 (No. 16)
• Yards per attempt: 7 (No. 16)
• Yards per game: 256 (No. 8)
• Average target depth: 6.7 (No. 33)

Those are hardly "bad" numbers, but clearly Mahomes hasn't put forward the sort of elite passing production that has helped him match some of the position's dual-threat aliens of the world in fantasy land over the years. Brock Purdy has averaged more yards per game (268 vs. 256) and fantasy points per game (17.9 vs. 17.5) since Week 1 of last season after all.

So, should we expect things to change? I'm not so sure. The offseason makeover to the team's WR room has quickly fizzled out, as Hollywood Brown (collarbone, IR) is expected to miss the entire season and first-round rookie Xavier Worthy has posted underwhelming 2-47-1, 2-17-0 and 2-17-0 receiving lines to start his career. Rashee Rice is emerging as a fantasy STAR while getting fed the sorts of targets that we're used to seeing Travis Kelce get; but it's hard to expect upper-echelon team passing numbers with *one* consistently productive pass catcher.

I'm not saying we need to move Mahomes to QB15 in the ranks or anything like that, but at this point it's hard to continue to fire him up as a no-doubt QB5 option when he's one of only eight starting QBs without a single top-12 fantasy finish this season.

Up next for the Chiefs is a feisty Chargers defense that ranks seventh in EPA allowed per dropback through three weeks of action. I'm not opposed to firing up guys like Joe Burrow, Jayden Daniels, and even Sam Darnold ahead of Mahomes in their superior spots. What a time to be alive.

Speaking of arguably the NFL's frontrunner for MVP…

2. How many QBs would we rather have than Sam Darnold?

Not many! Last week we pointed out that the success of Sam Darnold success has been at least somewhat fueled by Kevin O'Connell's schematic wizardry; the ex-Jets/Panthers QB's passing efficiency has gone from great to good when forced off his first read.

That said: It's growing increasingly difficult to poke holes in Darnold's performance after ANOTHER rather awesome 60 minutes against a quality defense in the Houston Texans. Eighth in EPA per dropback (+0.184) and seventh in completion percentage over expected (+5.8%), Darnold has looked the part of one of the game's most-efficient passers through three weeks of action.

Perhaps Darnold will snap back to reality (ah, there goes gravity) soon, but the fact he's achieved this with Jordan Addison (ankle) and T.J. Hockenson (knee) sidelined is awfully impressive.

Of course, KOC getting the most out of backup QBs isn't exactly anything new: The Vikings rank fifth in passing yards (4,973) and second in passing TDs (38) since Week 1 of last season with Kirk Cousins, Darnold, Nick Mullens, Joshua Dobbs, and Jaren Hall all starting at least two games.

Give the Packers defense credit for ranking 10th in EPA allowed per dropback this season, but it's tough to be overly worried about Jaire Alexander and Co. after the Vikings made such light work of the 49ers and Texans. Fire up the QB4 in fantasy points per game as a top-10 option at the position; the biggest concern is surprisingly just play volume, as two blowout game scripts have helped lead to the Vikings boasting the NFL's eighth-most run-heavy offense through three weeks.

3. Would Saquon Barkley be fantasy's 1.01 if we drafted today?

He certainly has a case! The man really hasn't missed in fantasy land with his new employer:

• Week 1: 24-109-2 rushing, 2-23-1 receiving, PPR RB1
• Week 2: 22-95-0, 4-21-0, RB17
• Week 3: 17-147-2, 4-9-0, RB1

The RB3 in Next-Gen Stats' rush yards over expected per carry (+1.75), Barkley has made the most out of his opportunities behind an Eagles offensive line that deserves credit for averaging a robust 1.6 yards before contact per carry—the eighth-highest mark in the NFL.

Ultimately, it's more about the volume here than anything. Barkley (73 touches) joins Alvin Kamara (71) and Jordan Mason (71) as the only three RBs with more than 65 combined carries and targets this season, and it seems unlikely the Eagles stop leaning on him anytime soon with both A.J. Brown (hamstring) and DeVonta Smith (concussion) banged up.

While I'd bet against Saquon ripping off a 60-plus yard TD every week, it's tough to argue with the idea that he would be fantasy's 1.01 if we all drafted today. Other players with an argument for the spot include Breece Hall, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, and Jauan Jennings (kidding, or am I?), but the engine of the Eagles' run-first offense is as good a pick as any so long as Jalen Hurts and the offensive line continue to provide plenty of open runways.

Oh yeah, Hurts, how has he been doing this season?

4. Who are the NFL's most-productive dual-threat QBs?

The following leaderboard denotes the most-productive rushing QBs this season in terms of their total fantasy points gained from purely runs:

1. Jayden Daniels (35.1)
2. Lamar Jackson (31.5)
3. Bo Nix (22.7)
4. Josh Allen (20.5)
5. Jalen Hurts (20.2)
6. Anthony Richardson (17.7)
7. Malik Willis (17.4)
8. Kyler Murray (16.1)
9. Justin Fields (15)
10. Deshaun Watson (14.5)

Among the group, Richardson’s and Fields' relative lack of rushing production are the most surprising, and it's been a major problem for their fantasy upside considering they rank 25th and 27th in fantasy points from passing production this season.

Starting with the former QB:

• Richardson has posted rush attempt totals of "just" 6, 4, and 8, one removed from racking up 10 carries in both of his full starts.
• Give the 22-year-old credit for averaging a solid 6.5 yards per carry—and his total numbers would look better had he not been stopped at the 1-yard line last week—but the good-not-great production hasn't been enough to make up for some incredibly inconsistent passing.
• Don't expect Week 4's date with T.J. Watt and Co. to provide anything resembling a get-right spot for this passing game; just realize Richardson should right the ship in fantasy land before too long—high-volume rushers simply don't make a habit of busting in the long run.

And then there's Fields:

• Give the ex-Bears signal caller credit for actually impressing as a passer (4th in CPOE!) despite the lack of overall production.
• Unlike Richardson, Fields' biggest problem has been efficiency on the ground: His average of 3.2 yards per carry is a full 3 yards lower than what he managed in 40 games with the Bears.
• Still, I tend to think this is a small-sample issue more than anything: The one-time 1,143-yard rusher has still shown off plenty of speed and could now be asked to do more on the ground than ever with both Najee Harris (arm) and Jaylen Warren (knee) banged up.
• It'd be pretty shocking at this point to see Mike Tomlin turn the 3-0 Steelers offense over to Russell Wilson (calf), making Fields a pretty solid buy-low candidate considering his best-case upside is as a legit top-five *fantasy* option at the position.

The QB position has certainly been a wonky one this season. Especially for one particular NFC South franchise…

5. So is everything good in the hood (Carolina) now?

Andy Dalton was nothing short of masterful on his way to piling up 319 yards and 3 TDs during the Panthers' Week 3 beatdown over the Raiders. The 36-year-old QB was certainly in command of the offense and made plenty of smart, on-time decisions that allowed Dave Canales' scheme to shine, but the Red Rifle also still proved plenty capable of making some jaw-dropping, big-time throws.

I mean seriously: This throw to Adam Thielen was one of the best we've seen from any QB this season considering the distance and tight window. Small-sample size be damned: Dalton's +0.301 EPA per dropback is the fifth-highest mark in the NFL this season.

Will this level of performance stick? Probably not, but then again, we've seen veterans like Geno Smith, Joe Flacco, and Baker Mayfield, among others, get hot and enable some extended stretches of fantasy goodness in recent years, something that does seem to be on the table for Dalton considering the Panthers defense looks like the sort of group poised to keep this team in plenty of fantasy-friendly shootouts the rest of the way.

Dalton himself is a perfectly fine QB2 option ahead of this Sunday's #RevengeGame against a Bengals defense that is fresh off putting forward one of the worst pass rush performances you'll ever see. Still, it's his No. 1 WR and RB who are worth getting really excited about in fantasy land:

• Diontae Johnson: Demanded a whopping 14 targets on his way to gaining a career-high 122 yards last Sunday. Still, the one TD could have realistically been *three* with a bit less sheesh. The expected absence of Adam Thielen (hamstring) leaves Johnson as the offense's even more clear-cut alpha receiver against a Bengals secondary that didn't have many answers for Rashee Rice (5-75-1) and Terry McLaurin (4-100-1) over the past two weeks. I'm not crowning Johnson as a legit fantasy WR1 (yet!), but he's certainly deserving of volume-based top-24 treatment at a minimum.
• Chuba Hubbard: Joins De'Von Achane as the only two top-24 RBs in PPR points per game with more than half of their fantasy production coming from receiving. Fantasy managers are certainly hopeful that Hubbard's 5-55-1 receiving line with Dalton under center is a sign of bigger things to come, but the 25-year-old talent also deserves credit for largely making the most out of all his touches this season: His rate of 0.28 missed tackles per touch ranks sixth among 40 RBs with at least 25 touches this season. Fire up the bell-cow back as a volume-based RB2 for as long as Jonathon Brooks (knee, IR) remains out of the picture.

Gotta love when a late-round handcuff really provides some solid fantasy value. Maybe there are some similar archetypes out there we should be paying attention to?

6. What premier handcuff RBs should we be looking to stash?

You probably already submitted waiver claims and focused on recommended options like Bucs RB Bucky Irving and Jets RB Braelon Allen. If only someone had told you to roster them a few weeks ago before they were so popular—oh wait I actually did that—but whatever: Let's really get in the weeds for a second with five recommended handcuff options owned in under 10% (!) of ESPN leagues for managers forced to dig especially deep:

• Saints RB Jamaal Williams (9.4%): The current next-man-up should Alvin Kamara ever be forced to join Taysom Hill (chest) and Kendre Miller (hamstring, IR) on the sideline. Williams has looked a little better following his miserable debut campaign with the Saints, and is one injury away from being a TD-dependent RB2 inside the league's second-ranked scoring offense.
• Jaguars RB Tank Bigsby (8.9%): Returned from a shoulder injury in Week 3 and continued to largely make the most out of his opportunities on the ground. While D'Ernest Johnson would likely stay annoyingly involved on pass downs, Bigsby is one ETN injury away from likely assuming a weekly workload of 15-plus rush attempts.
• Giants RB Tyrone Tracy (6.2%): Has separated himself from Eric Gray in the backup competition behind Devin Singletary inside an offense that has been among the league's most-willing units to feature one true workhorse back under head coach Brian Daboll. Tracy's explosive, pass-catching ability could provide some pretty great returns in fantasy land should the opportunity arise.
• Packers RB Emanuel Wilson (2%): Quietly the league's fourth-best RB in missed tackles forced per touch. Wilson is the Packers' clear-cut RB2 with MarShawn Lloyd (hamstring, IR) out of the picture for the time being, making him one injury to Josh Jacobs away from leading the ever-potent Packers backfield. Note that Jacobs has already missed time in training camp due to lower-body issues and has been on the injury report the last two weeks with a back injury.
• 49ers RB Isaac Guerendo (1.7%): The only San Fran RB not named Jordan Mason to get a rush attempt this season, Guerendo could be the next little-known Shanahan RB to boom in fantasy land should Mason be forced to miss any game action. The team spent a fourth-round pick on him for a reason this past April after all.

Gotta love that sweet, sweet unexpected RB volume. It's almost as great as finding yourself in one of the most fantasy-friendly matchups imaginable …

7. What defenses should we be actively attacking in fantasy land?

I put together the below chart showing PPR fantasy points per game allowed by position and overall to get an idea of which groups we should be especially willing to target in close start/sit decisions.

Example: The Cardinals and Bears have the best overall matchups this week, while the Colts and Lions have the worst.

Continuing to target the Commanders’ and Rams’ sad excuses for defenses makes a ton of sense—both groups have largely struggled to slow down opposing pass and run games alike through three weeks and do NOT deserve the benefit of the doubt until they prove otherwise.

Additionally, three defenses have done a relatively good job limiting opposing RBs this season, but have some troubling numbers against opposing QBs and WRs:

• Ravens (29th vs. QBs and WRs, 31st vs. TEs, 5th vs. RBs): Obviously Josh Allen is a weekly starter in lineups of all shapes and sizes, but don't count out the likes of Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid booming against a defense that has allowed a full 108 extra passing yards than any other defense this season.
• Lions (20th vs. QBs, 31st vs. WRs, 1st vs. RBs): Aidan Hutchinson and Co. are a formidable front-seven to run the ball against, but the secondary less so. IF (and it's a big one) the Seahawks can protect Geno Smith, it'd make sense if DK Metcalf and Co. have their way with a secondary that largely lives and dies by man coverage.
• Texans (26th vs. QBs, 21st vs. WRs, 8th vs. RBs): Similar to Detroit: There's a lot of talent in this Will Anderson-led Houston front-seven, but the secondary hasn't made a habit of winning its individual battles through three weeks. Perhaps Trevor Lawrence and BrIan Thomas Jr. can take advantage of this, although expecting any sort of high-end production out of this Jacksonville offense at the moment might be wishful thinking.

Let's keep the mismatch vibe going with a look at some more specific facets of the game that could be leaning heavily one way or another.

8. What are the biggest on-paper mismatches in Week 4?

Every week I put together a group of charts meant to provide easy-to-decipher matchup advantages on both sides of the ball in a handful of categories. This includes combined explosive pass/run-play rates, pressure, yards before contact, pass yards per dropback and EPA per play. The idea is to have one metric to show a mismatch instead of always going, "Offense ranks x, defense ranks y."

The data only includes Weeks 1-3 numbers, so take some of the analysis with a bit of a grain of salt. Things will get clearer as we get more and more 2024 info.

Without further adieu: The week's biggest mismatches in these ever-important categories. Feel free to click on any of the below categories for a full chart.

• Explosive passing offense: The Bills, Titans, Vikings, Texans, and Packers passing games appear to be set up quite well. However, the Jaguars, Broncos, Steelers, Panthers, and Lions aren't looking too hot at the moment ahead of their tough respective matchups.
• Explosive running offense: The Titans, Cardinals, and Ravens all look poised to do good things on the ground this week. Meanwhile, the Panthers, Chiefs, and Bills, in particular, look to have their work cut out for them.
• Pressure: The Chiefs, Dolphins, Bengals, and Saints look ready to provide plenty of clean pockets this week, while the Broncos, Titans, Patriots and Jaguars could be facing more pressure than they'd prefer.
• Yards before contact per carry: RBs from the Ravens, Chargers, Bengals, and Giants might have more clear runways than usual this week, but the opposite is true for the Jets, Bears, and Raiders.
• Pass yards per dropback: The best setup passing attacks look like the Bills, Commanders, and Cardinals this week, while the worst look like the Broncos, Lions, Browns, and Jaguars.
• EPA per play: Commanders-Cardinals and perhaps Eagles-Buccaneers look like the shootouts of the week, whereas Browns-Raiders and Titans-Dolphins look like the defensive slugfests.

9. Ranking every game of the week from a biased entertainment perspective

I remain steadfast in the idea that no NFL game is inherently "bad." Complaining about specific matchups is ignoring the reality that relatively *bad* football is so much better than *no* football; we should NEVER dismiss any given 60 minutes of professional action on the gridiron.

With that said: Some matchups are indeed more awesome than others, so let's take a quick second to rank every matchup of the week in terms of what I'm looking forward to most through my own biased lenses:

1. BUF-BAL. Josh Allen. Lamar Jackson. Don't think we need to overthink this one.
2. WSH-ARZ. The only matchup with a game total in the 50s, sign me up for a matchup between two electric dual-threat QBs facing two mediocre defenses. Throw in a Kliff Kingsbury revenge-game storyline, and you have the best non-primetime game of the week.
3. SEA-DET. The good Monday Night Football game featured a 37-31 overtime victory for the Seahawks last year. This will be the first real test for the undefeated Seahawks, while it'd be nice if Jared Goff and Co. could remind everyone they're capable of scoring more than 20 points every now and again.
4. MIN-GB. It'd be a lot cooler if Jordan Love is back for this one, but either way the Matt LaFleur vs. Brian Flores chess match should be fascinating to watch. Sam Darnold MVP hype would really get going should the Vikings manage to eat a W in Lambeau.
5. CIN-CAR. This is probably too high, but then again I am a sucker for a good revenge game. Additionally, only Cardinals-Commanders (50.5) has a higher game total than Bengals-Panthers (48). Points! Yay!
6. NO-ATL. The last time these teams met, Jameis Winston called a fake kneel to secure a 48-17 victory for the Saints. I have a hard time believing the Falcons have forgotten about the slight, although their 26th-ranked scoring offense has left a bit to be desired through three weeks.
7. DAL-NYG. This is the first time since 1975 that the Cowboys and Giants have faced off in a non-Sunday night matchup per sources (I made it up). Only the Commanders (167) have produced and allowed more total points than the Cowboys (166), so expect fireworks in some shape or Malik Nabers-esque form on Thursday night.
8. KC-LAC. Patrick Mahomes gets the benefit of the doubt, but man, would it kill the guy to complete a 20-plus yard pass from time to time? The potential absence of Justin Herbert keeps this one from being in the top five.
9. PIT-IND. Similar to last week's Bears-Colts matchup, I could see this game finishing as high as No. 1 and as low as No. 16 depending on how the matchup's two volatile dual-threat signal callers perform. 
10. LAR-CHI. Watching Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay still find ways to move the football without a halfway decent WR on the field is fun in a sick sort of way, while the Caleb Williams experience has produced some flashes despite Shane Waldron's best efforts.
11. PHI-TB. The Bucs embarrassed Philly the last time these squads faced off in last year's Wild Card round. I'd be a lot more excited about this battle between 2-1 squads if the Eagles, you know, had a single healthy WR on their roster.
12. JAX-HOU. The Jaguars are just sad at this point, but hey, at least watching C.J. Stroud and Co. likely put up all kinds of points should be fun.
13. TEN-MIA. This should probably be lower, but then again we are almost guaranteed for at least one hilarious meme-worthy Will Levis mistake that will make watching the week's lowest game total (37) worthwhile.
14. DEN-NYJ. The second Nathaniel Hackett revenge game features a healthy version of Aaron Rodgers this time around. This matchup has sneaky upside should Bo Nix and A-aron each build on their season-best Week 3 performances, but I have my doubts given the defenses at play.
15. NE-SF. The 49ers are the biggest favorite (-10) of the week. Meanwhile, the Patriots aren't playing Drake Maye because … he could get injured. Can't risk that. Let's just give the Patriots a few years to settle in on a playcaller, improve the offensive line, and get some good pass catchers in town, and then we can find out what the 2024 NFL Draft's No. 3 overall pick is all about.
16. CLE-LV. Tied for the week's lowest game total with Titans-Dolphins (37). The Browns offense is a mix of bad and injured, while the Raiders' Week 3 performance against the Panthers was one of the worst of the season. But hey, at least it's football!

10. Three bold predictions for Week 4:

Every week I'll put my reputation on the line regarding a handful of players I believe could out-perform their general fantasy-related expectations. The majority will NOT work out—they wouldn't be bold otherwise—but will that stop me? Hell no!

Without further adieu: Let's get weird.

• Steelers QB Justin Fields: The dual-threat talent looks poised to start once again coming off a smooth and effective passing performance against the Chargers. With Najee Harris (arm) and Jaylen Warren (knee) both banged up, it'd make sense if Fields is leaned on as a rusher more than ever. Give me 300-plus total yards and a trio of scores against a Colts defense that has allowed the second-most total yards in the league through three weeks.
• Texans WR Tank Dell: The odd man out through three weeks inside this crowded passing attack continues to play a near every-down role, but the production hasn't followed … yet. What better time for the second-year talent to boom than against the same secondary he torched to the tune of 5-145-1 and 5-50-1 receiving lines one year ago? I like Dell's chances of popping off for 100-plus yards and at least one chunk TD.
• Bengals WR Tee Higgins: His 2024 debut resulted in a 3-39-0 dud, although the overqualified No. 2 WR had a pair of near catches where he got only one foot down inbounds that would have added 30-plus yards and a TD to that tally. It'd make sense if Joe Burrow looks to get his second favorite WR involved one week after helping Ja'Marr Chase catch his stride. Higgins is going for 7 receptions, 119 yards and 2 TDs this week—and you heard it here first.

Players highlighted last week and results: Chuba Hubbard (169 yards, 1 TD), Brock Purdy (333 total yards, 3 TD), Jakobi Meyers (7-62-1 receiving and a 2-point conversion).

Other cool shit

• Giants WR Malik Nabers: The PPR WR1 is on pace for a hilariously high 210 targets and now gets a Cowboys defense that has allowed 72 points in its last eight quarters of football. The natural next step for Nabers to really follow in OBJ's footsteps is to put together another massive game in primetime against America's team.
• Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson: Caught six of 11 targets for 95 scoreless yards in his first game back from injury on a solid 73% route rate. Don't be surprised if Dak Prescott's No. 2 pass-game option works as a top-five fantasy performer at the position the rest of the way, which is both a compliment to Ferguson the football player as well as an indictment on the TE position as a whole at the moment.
• Bengals RB Zack Moss: I told you guys the time was MEOW to buy low on Moss last week … and he proceeded to rip off a PPR RB9 performance on an elite 77% snap rate. Please don't fact check all of my other claims over the years; either way, the Bengals' RB1 is (again) set up well against the Panthers—he's quickly shooting up the RB2 ranks.
• Saints WR Rashid Shaheed: More like Rasheesh Shahid amiright? Sorry. Anyway, Shaheed's Week 3 goose egg certainly wasn't what fantasy managers were looking for, but the fantasy-friendly opportunity was still there: Shaheed's 48% air yard share on the season is the 7th-highest mark of any WR.
• Falcons WR Drake London and Darnell Mooney: Through three weeks we've seen remarkably close numbers here in terms of targets (19 for London, 17 for Mooney) and air yards (169 vs. 166). TE Kyle Pitts is looking like the third banana at this point, but perhaps a matchup with the Saints' 28th-ranked defense in PPR points per game allowed to the position is just what the doctor ordered.
• Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence: T-Law's dropback success rate through Week 3 is worse than his rookie season under Urban Meyer (h/t Austin Gayle). Otherwise, things are going great for one of the NFL's highest-paid QBs.
• Texans RB Cam Akers: Extremely negative game script prevented Akers from really getting a chance to ball out as the Texans’ featured back last week, but the ex-Rams/Vikings veteran still looked good with his few opportunities. I like the bounceback potential here should Joe Mixon (ankle) and Dameon Pierce (hamstring) each remain sidelined.
• Broncos RB Tyler Badie: Unironically the Broncos' No. 1 RB in rushing yards through two weeks. Not the team leader—that's Bo Nix—but still, wild! Does this make him a priority stash in fantasy land? Not really, but for the love of God it means we can't trust Javonte Williams, who was seemingly benched after fumbling in the second quarter.
• Jets TE Tyler Conklin: Almost never leaves the field and accordingly makes for a pretty, pretty, pretty good waiver wire addition on TE-needy rosters—especially if Aaron Rodgers continues to look as good as he did during Week 3's win over the Patriots.
• Packers QB Malik Willis: Leads the NFL in yards per pass attempt (9.5) and ranks second in yards per carry (9.5) behind only Kyler Murray. Is that good?
• Rams RB Kyren Williams: Currently averaging fewer yards per carry (3) than Ezekiel Elliott (3.3) and Zamir White (3.3), but that doesn't really matter when afforded an average of 21 touches per game. Here's to hoping the Rams offensive line eventually gets healthier and Williams goes from a low-end RB1 back to his familiar top-five standing.
• Bears WR Rome Odunze: Joins Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers as the only three players with 300-plus air yards over the last two weeks. Turns out this rookie WR class is quite good!
• Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin and Mike Evans: Notice that order! Godwin has out-targeted Evans 25 to 15 seemingly thanks to his new full-time home in the slot. Up next is a tough challenge against a Falcons secondary that has allowed the fifth-fewest yards per attempt to opposing WRs aligned from the slot.
• 49ers WR Jauan Jennings: The overall PPR WR4 this season (lol, but seriously) earned all kinds of love on the waiver wire this week; just realize on a scale of Richie James to "Jauan Jennings is actually elite," I tend to lean toward the former outcome—the big game was awesome, but also HEAVILY aided by the 49ers' plethora of WR injuries and pristine matchup against the Rams' sad excuse for a defense.
• Commanders RB Brian Robinson: Keep an eye on the status of Austin Ekeler (concussion) because Robinson will be a legit top-15 option at the position should the ex-Charger miss any game action. Kudos to B-Rob for averaging a league-high 4 yards after contact per carry this season, and his 36-368-4 receiving line from last year reflects the reality that this isn't just a one-dimensional early-down grinder.
• Chargers RB J.K. Dobbins: Seemingly took over the Chargers’ backfield from a usage perspective last week, but injuries to tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt as well as QB Justin Herbert leaves Dobbins as more of a volume-based RB2 as opposed to someone who NEEDS to be in lineups of all shapes and sizes ahead of Sunday's matchup with the Chiefs.
• Browns QB Deshaun Watson: Has been horrible during his time in Cleveland, but he's also playing in an offense that ranks 31st in pre-snap shift/motion, pressure rate allowed, drop rate, and yards after the catch per completion. Otherwise, this Browns offense is in a great spot.
• Raiders TE Brock Bowers: Joins Davante Adams as the only Raiders fantasy managers can even remotely trust at the moment. Remember that time the Raiders unironically entered a regular season with Gardner Minshew and Aidan O'Connell as their QBs? Too funny.
• Bills WR Khalil Shakir: Continues to look the part of the best pass catcher on the Bills … but can't even get an average of 5 targets per game. Sad!
• Ravens TE Mark Andrews: Ran fewer routes than Nelson Agholor (9 vs. 6) last week. FB Patrick Ricard finished with 4. Very cool!
• Dolphins RB De'Von Achane: Surprisingly brutal rushing efficiency has been outweighed by equally surprising pass-game volume. No top-24 PPR RB has been more dependent on receiving production than Achane this season.
• Titans QB Will Levis: On a generational run of creating hilarious mid-play memes at the moment, which isn't great for fantasy managers or Titans fans, but it is funny!
• Seahawks RB Zach Charbonnet: Has rarely left the field for more than a quick breather without Kenneth Walker (oblique) on the field and now ranks second in missed tackles forced per touch among all RBs this season. You hear that? That's an RB1 as long as Walker remains sidelined, people.

Lions QB Jared Goff: Currently averaging a pedestrian 5.7 adjusted yards per pass attempt, which gives extra weight to TDs and INTs. That ranks 23rd among 31 qualified QBs and is the lowest mark since his rookie season. Up next is an untested, yet frisky, Seahawks defense that has allowed a league-low 397 pass yards this season.