Week 5 is here, and so is Dwain McFarland to run you through his Week 5 Fantasy Football Rankings, including his risers, fallers, starts, sits, and more:

It is time to set our fantasy lineups for the week and with that in mind, let's follow the data to analyze some of the biggest risers and fallers in the ranks to help you make those critical start-sit decisions.

Risers in the Week 5 Fantasy Football Rankings

Jordan Love | QB | Packers

Love had a monster fantasy outing last weekend with 389 yards and four passing TDs in a second-half comeback effort against the Vikings. Sure, the trailing game script led to more passing attempts in the second half, but let's not bury the lede here. In a league that is struggling to pass the ball, Love found a way, just as he did in Week 1 with 260 yards and 2 TDs.

The Packers face the second-most fantasy-friendly defense in the NFL against QBs. The Rams have sanctioned a 4.3-point fantasy boost to opposing passers, allowing 234 yards and two passing TDs per contest. Green Bay boasts the fifth-highest team total (26) as four-point favorites over Los Angeles.

Love UPGRADES to mid-range QB1 status as my QB5.

Geno Smith | QB | Seahawks

The Seahawks have morphed into a pass-first attack under new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, with the highest dropback rate over expectation (DBOE) in the NFL at 7.2%. And why wouldn't you when your QB is playing as well as Smith? He ranks second in passing yards per game (296) and completion percentage (72%) over the season's first month.

Not only are the Seahawks opting to pass the ball, they are playing with a sense of urgency. Seattle ranks fourth in time remaining on the play clock (11 seconds) in neutral game script situations, fueling the third-highest plays per minute over expectation (PPMOE) at 13%.

When you put all the puzzle pieces together, we have a QB playing at an extremely high level in an offense that will support high passing volume. The Giants have managed to hold teams to 213 passing yards per game, but I don't buy it. They don't have a cornerback ranking in the top 65 per PFF grades. At best, this is an average defense, which is a matchup that favors Smith.

The Seahawks carry a top-five team total (24.5) as seven-point favorites over the Giants. Typically, that spread might push us off of a QB like Smith, but the Seahawks' strong DBOE means they should still throw plenty, and I expect the TDs to finally come this weekend.

Smith UPGRADES to low-end QB1 territory as my QB10.

QB Rapid Fire Upgrades

  • Brock Purdy | 49ers: Purdy averages the third-most passing yards per game (283) as the QB10 in fantasy points per game (17.4). The Niners carry the highest team total (29.3) in a matchup against the Cardinals. Arizona has coughed up the eighth-largest fantasy point boost to opposing signal callers with 2.2 points per game. Purdy carries massive TD upside this weekend and UPGRADES to QB4.
     
  • Joe Burrow | Bengals: Burrow climbs the ranks thanks to a matchup against a Ravens defense, which provides the largest passing yards boost in our DvP Tool at 52.3 yards. The Bengals have a top-six team total (24) in a game with a close spread (3). Burrow UPGRADES to QB6, and I would start him over Kyler Murray, Justin Fields, and C.J. Stroud.

Jerome Ford | RB | Browns

Outside of the bizarre Week 2 game where Ford saw only 42% of the snaps, he has dominated the Browns backfield. In the three games where his snaps eclipsed 70%, Ford has averaged 14.8 points per game with RB9, RB26 and RB15 performances.

 

The Commanders have boosted opposing RB's fantasy points to the sixth-most (4.3), including an additional 34 yards per game on the ground. Nick Chubb could return to the lineup soon, but Ford should be the clear-cut No. 1 in a solid matchup this weekend.

Ford UPGRADES to mid-range RB2 territory.

Najee Harris | RB | Steelers

Harris was banged up last week with an arm injury that might have limited his workload. Still, he averages 20.5 opportunities per contest between carries (17) and targets (3.5), which makes him an intriguing name against the Cowboys.

 

Unfortunately, the former Round 1 NFL Draft pick hasn't been able to get much going despite the volume, thanks to poor efficiency. Of the 23 backs with at least 50 carries this season, Harris ranks among the worst in multiple categories.

  • Average yards after contact: 2.4 (19 of 23)
  • Missed tackles forced per attempt: 16.2% (13 of 23)
  • Attempts of 10-plus yards: 7.4% (19 of 23)

Still, Dallas has coughed up the most points per game to opposing rushing attacks (26.6) and won't have Damarcus Lawrence and possibly Micah Parsons. Jaylen Warren and Cordarrelle Patterson are also battling injuries, which could open up even more opportunities for Harris if he is 100%. 

Historically, RBs with Harris's Utilization Score (7.2) have averaged 14.1 points per game. This man is due, and Dallas is an excellent remedy for his efficiency blues.

Harris UPGRADES to mid-range RB2 status and will climb to high-end RB2 territory if Jaylen Warren and Cordarrelle Patterson can't play.

RB Rapid Fire Upgrades

We have many caveats with the RB ranks heading into this weekend, which means we don't currently have a player who checks all the SMASH play boxes. So, it makes more sense to cover more names in the rapid-fire section rather than isolate on a couple of names.

  • Josh Jacobs | Packers: Jacobs is in a sweet spot this weekend from a matchup perspective. Green Bay has one of the best team totals (26) as four-point favorites over a Rams defense, supporting the fifth-highest rushing yards per game boost (20.1) for opposing backfields (excludes QBs). However, Jacobs has yet to boom in the boxscore with only 10.5 points per game, and his utilization is trending down over the last two games with only 46% of the attempts (11.5 per game), thanks to the emergence of Emanuel Wilson. Those factors kept me from giving Jacobs the smash-play seal of approval. Jacobs UPGRADES to low-end RB1 territory.
     
  • Travis Etienne | Jaguars: Tell me if you have heard this story before. Etienne has a choice matchup against the Colts, who have endorsed the third-best rushing yards boost (27.5) to opposing RBs, and the Jaguars have one of the better team totals (24.8) per oddsmakers. Still, I can't move Etienne into smash-play territory because Tank Bigsby has limited Etienne to 46% and 45% of rushing attempts in Bigsby's two healthy games. Etienne UPGRADES to high-end RB2 status.
     
  • Joe Mixon | Texans: Mixon didn't practice on Wednesday (high-ankle sprain) but was a game-time decision last weekend, which was a step in the right direction. If Mixon returns, we can expect a mild production dip, but he would still be an enticing start. The Bills allow the fourth-most rushing yards per game (156), including an 8.7 PPR to RBs, and the Texans have a substantial team total (24.8). At 100%, Mixon would be a high-end RB1 smash play, but even at 70%, he is worthy of mid-range RB2 treatment.

Jayden Reed | WR | Packers

Honestly, no player in the NFL is more due for negative regression than Reed. He ranks sixth in fantasy points per game (19.7) but 34th in Utilization Score (6.6). Reed's 77% route participation, 21% targets per route run (TPRR), and 20% target share are WR3 marks, and his 91% catchable target rate is ripe for downturn despite his 8.2 aDOT.

 

Historically, WRs in the range of Reed's Utilization Score have averaged 12.4 fantasy points, finishing as a WR3 or WR4. Essentially, two massive spike games carry the day for Reed's PPR average. 

Sanity check. Yes, we are still in the upgrade section of this column; you didn't unrealizingly teleport to the downgrades. While the data suggests Reed will come down from his current fantasy high, there is still plenty to like about his game–especially this weekend.

Both of Reed's spike games came with Jordan Love at the helm. The second-year WR has 20% and 32% target shares in those contests and 7.5 and 8.2 Utilization Scores. Secondly, sometimes great players overcome less-than-optimal situations–we saw this phenomenon last season with De'Von Achane and Jahmyr Gibbs.

Then there is the matchup with the Rams. The betting markets expect the Packers to score plenty of points this weekend with the No. 2 team total (26), and Los Angeles has granted the seventh-largest boost (3.8) to the WR position.

I expect the truth around Reed to eventually settle somewhere in between what his Utilization Score and fantasy points say. That likely means WR2 territory the rest of the way, but it is all systems go this weekend.

Reed UPGRADES to mid-range WR1 status in a great matchup.

Garrett Wilson | WR | Jets

Wilson is on the opposite end of the spectrum from Reed–he is due for positive regression. He firmly leads the Jets with a 26% target share and 34% air yards share.

 

Players with a 7.1 Utilization Score have averaged 14.6 points per game over the last four years. Of course, the Utilization Score factors fantasy points into a weighted equation to help account for talent, situation, and other factors. If we isolate target share and air yards, his comps averaged 17.5 points with a WR11 finish based on data since 2011.

The knee-jerk reaction is to bail on Wilson, but if we play the percentages, the data tells us to stay the course. Here is the entire distribution of outcomes for Wilson's peers since 2011 in a 57-player sample:

  • WR1 finish (1 to 12): 70%
  • WR2 finish (13 to 24): 14%
  • WR3 finish (25 to 36): 14%
  • WR4 finish (37 to 48): 2%

Give me the over on Wilson's current rank of WR31 with 11.4 points per game, and this weekend will provide an excellent opportunity to get things going. The Vikings have allowed the most passing yards per game (300), and the WR position has enjoyed the third-largest yardage boost (38) yards per game. Two of three Minnesota cornerbacks have been especially bad based on PFF grades.

  • Byron Murphy Jr.: 58.7 PFF Coverage Grade (66 of 98)
  • Shaquill Griffin: 53.9 PFF Coverage Grade (78 of 98)

Wilson UPGRADES to low-end WR1 territory.

WR Rapid Fire Upgrades

  • Tee Higgins | Bengals: Higgins commanded a 23% target share, 39% air yards share, and 50% air yards share in his first two games back from a hamstring injury. The Ravens have given up the second-most passing yards per game, including the seventh-highest boost to the WR position (21). Higgins UPGRADES to low-end WR2 status and offers WR1 upside.
     
  • Amari Cooper and Jerry Jeudy | Browns: The Browns face a Commanders defense, allowing the No. 1 fantasy boost (8.8 points) to the WR position. Washington has the second-lowest PFF Coverage grade (46.1) without a single cornerback ranking higher than 75th out of 98. Cooper averages 8.5 targets (25%), and Juedy is at 7.3 (22%). One of these two players, or possibly both, are hitting a big play in Week 5. Cooper UPGRADES to high-end WR2 and could break fantasy this weekend. Jeudy UPGRADES to low-end WR3 territory and offers WR2 upside.
     
  • Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs | Colts: This one depends on the health of Anthony Richardson. The Jaguars defense allows the second-most passing yards per game at 284, and the Colts offense is condensing. Over the last two games with Downs back in the lineup, he (32%) and Pittman (30%) have hogged most of the targets. If Richardson is under center, both offer big-play upside against Indianapolis, but if Joe Flacco plays, we will see more dropbacks and completions, which could be lethal against Jacksonville. If Flacco plays, Pittman UPGRADES to borderline WR1 territory, and Josh Downs morphs into a WR3 with WR2 upside.
     
  • Dontayvion Wicks | Packers: I waxed poetic about Wicks in the Utilization Report this week, so I will keep this short. Wicks leads all Packers with a 24% target share on his 395 routes over the last two seasons. He has played over 70% of the passing plays three times during that period. He averaged 21.2 points in those games, with a low of 15.7. Everything I said about Reed's matchup above also applies to Wicks, who will replace Christian Watson as a starter this weekend. Wicks UPGRADES to low-end WR2 status–I am 10 spots ahead of Fantasy Life consensus. This is not a drill. Wicks offers WR1 upside, y'all!

Jake Ferguson | TE | Cowboys

Ferguson owns a mouth-watering 27% targets per route run (TPRR), ranking first among all tight ends with at least 50 routes. He has an 8.4 Utilization Score since returning from a knee injury in Week 3, averaging 13.7 points.

 

The matchup isn't ideal, with a 20-point team total (well below the norm for Dallas) against a defense allowing the tenth-fewest receiving yards per contest. However, Brandin Cooks won't be available, further narrowing the available targets for Dak Prescott.

I am slightly down on the Cowboys passing game this weekend, but Ferguson should come through on volume.

Ferguson is my UPGRADES to mid-range TE1 status as my TE5 and is a top 60 flex option.

Fallers In The Week 5 Fantasy Football Rankings

Dak Prescott | QB | Cowboys

Prescott is the QB7 in fantasy, averaging 18.2 points per game. However, this weekend, the Cowboys carry a below-average team total (20) in a matchup against a Steelers defense that has held QBs two points under their season average per our Fantasy Boost metric.

When you put all the factors together, Prescott deserves a downgrade. However, it is worth noting that past fantasy points are more predictive than matchup or team total, which still gives Prescott a chance to come through. So, don't go out of your way to stream a different option if it means making a tough cut at another position on your roster.

Prescott DOWNGRADES to high-end QB2 territory, and I would start Jordan Love, Justin Fields, Geno Smith, and Baker Mayfield ahead of him in Week 5.

Zack Moss | RB | Bengals

Moss has been a mainstay in this article for the last three weeks. However, this will be his first entry as a downgrade. There are two primary drivers to this move. 

First, Moss registered a season-low 48% attempt share last weekend, with Chase Brown threatening to push this backfield into full-blown committee status. Moss still got his opportunities (14 attempts and four targets) and dominated passing downs with 100% of the two-minute offense work. However, Brown bogarted two of three attempts inside the five-yard line.

Second, the Bengals face a Ravens defense, allowing the fewest rushing yards per game (57.8). Opposing RBs have a minus-29-yard rushing boost against Baltimore, leading to a minus-4.4 PPR boost.

Bob, I got a bad feeling about this one, alright?

Moss DOWNGRADES to borderline RB2 territory.

Rapid Fire WR Downgrades

  • Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker | Raiders: The Raiders could be without Davante Adams (hamstring injury and trade candidate), which is a positive for Meyers and Tucker from a vacated targets perspective. Both WRs have stepped forward over the last two games with 32% and 24% target shares, respectively. That keeps both of them in lineup conversations in deeper leagues, but all tie-breakers should go in another direction, thanks to a horrific matchup against the Broncos. The Raiders carry the lowest team total (16.8) on the slate, and the WR position has a -11.8 fantasy boost against the Broncos-–that is BAD NEWS, y'all. Meyers is a low-end WR4, and Tucker is a WR5.

Sicko Starts of the Week in Fantasy Football

I want to throw in a few names for all my fellow fantasy managers that are in a SICKO league. If you are in a 12-team league with three starting WRs and two flexes, these are for you! Or you are in a more typical setup but need a name to help get you through injuries; these are for you!

Season: 8 of 15

Let's go, you sickos.

Deshaun Watson | QB | Browns

Not too long ago, Watson was a top-five fantasy QB. I don't know if I remember a more epic face-plant for a quarterback still in their prime, but as they say, life comes at you fast. This season, the former 20-plus-point-per-game option averages only 14.9.

Buuuuuuuuuuuut … Watson gets a Commander's defense, providing the fifth-highest fantasy boost to opposing QBs at 3.1 points per game. Washington allows 19.3 points per game–the most in the NFL–via passing production alone.

That is an enticing proposition for the NFL's second-ranked DBOE (6.8%) pass unit.

Watson isn't as good as he once was, but he might be as good once as he ever was in this matchup. He offers mid-range QB1 upside.

Trey Sermon | RB | Colts

Jonathan Taylor isn't likely to play this weekend due to a high-ankle sprain. There haven't been many snaps up for grabs behind Taylor (75% snap share), but Sermon has been the No. 2 (19%) ahead of Tyler Goodson (6%). Sermon has a 9% rush share versus 0% for Goodson, but we could see Goodson steal some passing-down opportunities.

On paper, the Jaguars look like a middle-of-the-road run defense, allowing 109 yards per game. However, they have empowered the fourth-highest fantasy boost (5.5 points) to opposing RB rooms.

Sermon UPGRADES to low-end RB2 status and is still available in 26% of Yahoo leagues after the waiver wire run.

Tutu Atwell | WR | Rams

In two games without Cooper Kupp, Atwell has a 20% target share and 33% air yards share. He averages 12.8 fantasy points during that stretch with a 6.4 Utilization Score (WR3 to WR4 territory). The speedy WR has enjoyed motion at the snap on a whopping 42% of routes, which is exceptionally high. That makes him a tough player to isolate in coverage and gives him a head start on defenders.

The Packers have surrendered the sixth-most receiving yards per game (254), and the Rams offer a respectable 22-point team total (11th-highest). 

I am 20 spots ahead of Fantasy Life consensus on Atwell as my No. 68 player overall.

Note: I nearly went with Jordan Whittington here after a 30% target share last weekend, but his utilization has been up and down. He is in play as well if Atwell isn't available.

Brass Balls Bench - Sit of the Week in Fantasy Football

I don't necessarily fully endorse these plays, but if you are willing to make big calls, these players could find their way to your bench if you are loaded with other options.

Season: 6 of 8

Sam Darnold | QB | Vikings

The Jets are the No. 1 pass defense in the NFL, allowing only 151 yards per game. However, three of those games were against the Titans, Patriots, and Broncos–some of the most inept passing attacks around. Still, New York held those offenses under their averages with a minus-three-point Fantasy Boost.

The former first-round NFL Draft pick averages the fifth-most fantasy points per game (20.7) and has the weapons to hang with any defense, so I did not push him as far down the ranks as far as most.

Darnold DOWNGRADES to high-end QB2 territory but isn't a must-start.