Week 5 Fantasy Life Chronicles: Time To Move On in New England?
Living the fantasy life isn't always all fun and games, but that doesn't mean we can't appreciate the ups and downs that any given season presents along the way. Accordingly, we'll be chronicling some of the ebbs and flows of the fantasy calendar as we progress through the 2024 season. And just like that: We're on to Week 5 …
The Patriots are a bad football team with a really bad offense. The former reality isn't especially surprising; they boasted a lowly preseason win total of 5.5 for a reason. Still, seeing the squad average just 13 points per game is incredibly rough–-only the Tua Tagovailoa-less Dolphins have put fewer points on the scoreboard through four weeks of action.
Bad performance usually leads to personnel changes. Accordingly, HC Jerod Mayo is openly considering promoting Antonio Gibson to the starting lineup due to Rhamondre Stevenson's ongoing case of the butterfingers, while Week 4 saw rookie Ja'Lynn Polk mercifully leap progress-stopper K.J. Osborn on the depth chart.
And yet, the team's QB position doesn't appear on the verge of changing. In fact, HC Jerod Mayo said this week that Jacoby Brissett is “100% our starter.”
It's certainly something that seems up for debate considering Brissett has looked a lot like anyone's idea of a bottom-five QB this season.
Brissett among 33 QBs with 50-plus dropbacks this season
- EPA per dropback: -0.144 (No. 30)
- Completion percentage over expected: -2.6% (No. 26)
- Passer rating: 77.0 (No. 27)
- PFF pass grade: 51.0 (No. 29)
- Yards per attempt: 5.3 (No. 30)
Yes, Brissett hasn't gotten much help from his friends this year. The Patriots' supporting cast ranks 31st in average PFF rush, receiving, run blocking, and pass blocking grades (everything except passing), and OC Alex Van Pelt has also left a lot to be desired.
Also yes, the offense's 31-year-old veteran QB hasn't exactly made life any easier for everyone (anyone?) involved. A great QB helps elevate the rest of an offense and that simply hasn't been the case this season: Pro Football Reference has chalked up 20.6% (8th highest) of Brissett's attempts as "bad throws", and his PFF turnover-worthy play rate (4.7%) is tied for the sixth-highest mark in the league … with Will Levis.
Still, it's the lack of urgency to get the ball out of his hands that is arguably the most damning feature considering everyone is well aware of just how bad the offensive line is. Overall, Brissett's average time to throw of 2.97 seconds is the eighth-highest mark among all QBs and sandwiched between far more fleet-footed athletes in Justin Fields and Anthony Richardson–-even Jacoby's own coach knows that he doesn't have the sort of speed and playmaking ability to warrant holding the ball that long.
Throw in the reality that Brissett is one of just eight QBs to allow more than 25% of his pressures to be converted into sacks this season, and the veteran certainly doesn't seem to be helping matters in the ways that you might expect.
This brings us to today's primary question: What if the Patriots started Drake Maye?
The idea has generally been shot down because of the implication that putting Maye behind the team's banged-up and generally bad offensive line would be a death sentence. David Carr infamously took 76 sacks as a rookie and never came close to fulfilling the sort of high-end expectations that go alongside being the No. 1 overall pick. Those Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, and Tom Brady guys didn't start right away and turned out okay, so it only makes sense to let Maye chill on the bench and learn for a bit. Right?
It's a divisive topic that even some of the game's greatest QBs can't agree on.
- Tom Brady said "the only reason why" teams play rookie quarterbacks selected with high draft picks is because "we’ve dumbed the game down, which has allowed them to play."
- Peyton Manning responded by noting, "The problem is, if the rookie quarterbacks struggle early, what do they do? They take him out. … I go, 'No, no, leave him in there. Let him learn the hard way.'"
- Eli Manning agreed with his brother (shocker) and believes, “Nothing gets (a rookie quarterback) better prepared for playing football than playing football.”
By all accounts, Brissett has not played the position at a high enough level to warrant being the team's locked-in starter. Mayo literally said himself that Maye outperformed Brissett by the end of training camp, which sure looked accurate based on what we saw in the preseason.
Add it all together, and the Patriots are essentially waving the white flag when it comes to doing everything in their power to win regular-season football games in the year 2024.
There's not necessarily anything wrong with that, but this will quickly become a contradiction should Maye be forced into action without the sort of preparedness he would have … if the team just made him the starter in the first place.
What exactly is the Patriots' plan if Brissett is forced to miss any game action? The man is essentially being used as a human shield for the team's shiny No. 3 overall pick at the moment.
While Maye has reportedly received around 30% of the team's practice reps with the starters, the idea that his health and development should be protected at all costs doesn't exactly jive with THEN throwing him into a game without ample preparation–-something that is apparently firmly on the table considering his standing as the team's only other active QB on game days.
We actually already saw this play out in the 4th quarter of the team's blowout Week 3 loss to the Jets. Again: The team actively admitted Maye out-played Brissett by the end of training camp, yet are happy to essentially sacrifice the latter QB's health for the good of the former's development, so shouldn't they theoretically be fine doing the same with sixth-round pick Joe Milton should the situation arise?
What is the better learning experience: Watching Brissett get killed and receiving 30% of the practice reps, or finding ways to deal with that pressure yourself and receiving all of the practice reps? This situation doesn't seem all that dissimilar from the Chargers attempting to ease Justin Herbert into action as a rookie … before eventually throwing him to the wolves when a team doctor accidentally punctured Tyrod Taylor's lung just before kickoff (that actually happened).
Mayo and the rest of the Patriots coaching staff will forget more about football than I will ever know. Still, the only top-10 rookie QBs to not start 10-plus games since 2010 have been: Jake Locker, Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff, Patrick Mahomes, Trey Lance, and Anthony Richardson (injured). History, along with the Patriots' decision to make Maye QB2 behind their atrocious offensive line, tells us the No. 3 overall pick will be out there sooner rather than later … so would it not make more sense to rip the bandaid off and at least give the rookie the sort of full-time preparation in practice to give him the best chance possible to make the most of his eventual game reps?
If/when Maye does get a chance under center, there's potential for the rookie to work as a solid FANTASY QB even if the real-life development takes a while to catch up thanks to that sweet, sweet rushing upside. Consider: He was more prolific than any of the draft's big-six QBs not named Jayden Daniels when removing yards lost from sacks during the last two seasons:
Fantasy points per game from purely rushing production 2022-23:
- Jayden Daniels (13.8)
- Drake Maye (9.4)
- Caleb Williams (8.6)
- Bo Nix (7.3)
- J.J. McCarthy (4.2)
- Michael Penix (2.2)
For reference, Maye (57 rush yards per game) was right there with guys like Anthony Richardson (59) and Justin Fields (55) when it came to the ability to pick up yards on the ground. We aren't exactly dealing with a Goff-esque statue in the pocket who would be unable to escape any threat of pressure.
It'd be a lot cooler if the Patriots had a great offensive line, proven pass-catchers, and an elite play-caller to help ease Maye's development, but that's seldom a luxury with any team bad enough to earn the privilege to take a QB inside the top five picks in the first place. These problems are also hardly guaranteed to be fully rectified to whatever degree the Patriots deem appropriate by the end of this season, or hell, in 2025 and beyond.
Could Maye simply be good enough to help elevate the team's porous surrounding cast similarly as great QBs like Herbert, Stroud, or Daniels among others have done in the past? I guess we'll never know.
Good luck to everyone this week and always remember: It's a great day to be great!