It is time to set our fantasy lineups and with that in mind, let's follow the data to analyze some of the biggest Week 6 fantasy football rankings risers and fallers to help you make those critical start-sit decisions.

Risers in the Week 6 Fantasy Football Rankings

Dak Prescott | QB | Cowboys

Prescott was in the downgrade section of this article last week, but he will get a juicy matchup against the Lions' funnel defense this weekend. Detroit has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards (91) and the fourth-most passing yards (276) per contest.

Look for the Cowboys to take to the air in a game tied for the highest total on the slate at 52.5 points. This environment offers 300-plus yards and two-plus TD upside for the Cowboys' signal caller.

Fantasy's current QB11 in points per game UPGRADES to QB7 in Week 6.

Kirk Cousins | QB | Falcons

Cousins erupted for 500-plus passing yards and 35 fantasy points last weekend as the wily veterans around the league said, "I know how to beat Cover 2 defenses." While we must temper expectations, it isn't crazy to think that a veteran coming off of a mid-season Achilles injury learning a new offense (as are his weapons) could be finding his groove.

A date with a Panthers defense giving up the third-most fantasy points per game (18.1) strictly through the air is a great chance to test that theory. With the fourth-largest team total (27.3) on the slate, the bookmakers agree that points shouldn't be an issue for the Falcons. It is only a matter of how many come through the air versus the ground. So far this year, eight of Atlanta's nine TDs have come via the air.

Cousins UPGRADES to low-end QB1 status.

Bijan Robinson | RB | Falcons

Robinson tossed two near-gutter balls in his last two outings, scoring 11.4 and 11.7 fantasy points, leaving fantasy managers wondering what in tarnation is happening in Atlanta. While Tyler Allgeier's emergence to steal 37% of the rushing attempts over the last two games is certainly a factor, Robinson is still due for positive regression. 

Running backs around his 7.9 Utilization Score have averaged 15.9 points per game, slightly above his 14.7 today. In a matchup against a Panthers defense allowing the largest fantasy boost to opposing RBs (8.6), he projects for 17.9 points this weekend in PPR formats. The Falcons carry the fourth-highest team total (27.3), which means a multi-TD game could be on tap.

We discussed Robinson's trade value in the Utilization Report this week, but if he blows up, the market will look very different after this weekend. That doesn't mean we should overpay (good matchups go wrong), but now is the time to inquire about his services at a reasonable price.

Robinson is a SMASH play as my No. 4 RB this weekend.

Jahmyr Gibbs & David Montgomery | RB | Lions

The Lions are loaded to the gills with weapons but have remained committed to pounding the rock. Detroit ranks 28th in dropback rate over expected (-5.3%) and boasts the fourth-best run-blocking unit in the NFL per PFF grades (75.4).

When you add it all up, you have an offense scoring the sixth-most TDs per drive (30%), and they are a nightmare matchup for the Cowboys. Dallas did an admirable job clogging up the run game against the Steelers last week, but the passing-game weapons for the Lions should keep the Cowboys from consistently committing extra resources to stopping the run. Dallas ranks dead-ass-last in PFF Run defense grade (38.3).

Montgomery's 6.5 Utilization Score suggests risk with his profile thanks to a limited role in the passing game (30% route participation). However, he ranks seventh in attempts inside the five-yard line with six on the season. He is a threat to deliver multiple TDs in this matchup.

Gibbs UPGRADES to RB7 status, and Montgomery is my RB9. Both backs are inside my top 15 flex options for Week 6.

Tony Pollard | RB | Titans

Pollard is another candidate for positive regression. He ranks tenth in Utilization Score (8.0) but is 19th in points per game (14.5). His historical comps have averaged 15.4 points per game, with 67% delivering a finish between RB7 and RB12.

The Colts have coughed up the fourth-largest fantasy boost (5.0) to the RB position. Opponents' backs have averaged 26 yards over their season average against Indianapolis, making this a potential spot for Pollard to dip into some positive-regression goodness. 

While Pollard gets an upgrade this week, he doesn't ascend to smash status. The split backfield Tennesse professed this offseason has yet to play out, with Pollard handling 64% of the snaps and 58% of the attempts. However, Tyjae Spears has battled the injury bug, and the Titans are coming off a bye. This team could split things more evenly after a week to regroup.

Pollard UPGRADES to borderline RB1 status.

D'Andre Swift | RB | Bears

Swift's utilization was strong to start the season, but the fantasy points started flowing in Week 4. Over the last two games, the Bears' free-agent acquisition has tallied 49.5 points. While the Bears' offense has yet to prove a stable environment, Swift's 7.6 Utilization Score is a great sign.

Backs with similar Utilization Scores, including players in questionable offenses, have averaged 14.3 points. If Chicago's offense is ascending, a matchup against the Jaguars is an excellent way to keep the party going. They have been a solid unit against the run but have allowed the second-most receptions per game (6.6) to backs, which has fueled the fourth-best fantasy points boost (4.8) against the position.

Swift's recent surge in the receiving game might not continue all season–thanks to multiple quality targets–but this matchup gives him a chance to build on his 18% target share over the last two weeks.

Swift UPGRADES to mid-range RB2 status and offers high-end RB1 upside.

Najee Harris | RB | Steelers

Harris found a place in this column last week and promptly flopped with only 9.7 fantasy points against Dallas. That makes it challenging to go back to him, but too many factors align to let a one-game sample scare us away.

I am not in on Harris as a long-term answer this year, but he is in a great spot this week.

Harris UPGRADES to mid-range RB2 territory.

RB Rapid Fire Upgrades

  • Chase Brown | Bengals: the second-year RB might have the backfield to himself this weekend if Zack Moss (ankle) can't go. Brown has carved out a larger role over the last two games, but in a full-time capacity, he would upgrade to mid-range RB2 status and offer high-end RB1 upside against the Giants.
     
  • Trey Sermon | Colts: Sermon didn't look particularly good last weekend but led the Colts in rushing, leading to 18.3 points and a 7.9 Utilization Score. The Titans have been solid against the RB position, but Sermon would upgrade to high-end RB3 status should Jonathan Taylor (high ankle) not suit up. Sermon didn't practice on Wednesday (collarbone), which would open the door for Tyler Goodson if he can't go.

D.J. Moore | WR | Bears

Moore entered last week with a juicy 26% target share on the season but had only averaged 11.9 points per game. We knew the key for Moore was better play from Caleb Williams, and that is what we got with 304 passing yards. That unlocked a 27.5-point outburst.

The Bears' offense will likely face more turbulence, but Williams is improving, and Chicago squares off against the best WR matchup in the land. Jacksonville has sanctioned the No. 1 boost (10.8 PPR points per game) to the WR position. The Jaguars rank 27th in PFF coverage grade.

Moore UPGRADES to low-end WR1 status.

Stefon Diggs & Tank Dell | WR | Texans

Nico Collins was placed on IR with a hamstring injury this week. That opens the door for Diggs and Dell to claim more significant roles over the next four games.

Diggs has been the most impressive of the two, with a 22% target share. His 7.1 Utilization Score suggests the veteran is likely a WR2 with Collins, which makes him a borderline WR1 without. Don't be surprised if the Texans' new slot option pushes for a target share closer to 30% over the next month.

Dell hasn't looked like himself to start the season (5.0 Utilization Score). He is coming off of a late season-ending injury (fibula fracture) in 2023 and suffered a gunshot wound to the leg in May. We don't know if Dell can flip on the switch, but I am not brave enough to keep him out of my lineups this weekend. Last season, in a more condensed Texans' passing attack, Dell averaged 18.9 points in games where he eclipsed 50% route participation. His average route participation this year is 82%.

Diggs UPGRADES to low-end WR1 territory, and Dell is a boom-bust borderline WR2.

Terry McLaurin | WR | Commanders

McLaurin has come to life with 17.9 fantasy points per game over the last three weeks and his Utilization Score suggests that might continue. The score accounts for his two lackluster performances at the beginning of the year, but his 7.5 mark (16th) is still robust. His comps have fared well.

  • WR1 fantasy finishes: 18%
  • WR2 fantasy finishes: 57%
  • WR3 fantasy finishes: 24%

That group averaged 14.9 points per contest–well above his 13.3 average this season. Now factor in a Ravens defense that ranks first against the run (60 yards per game allowed) and last against the pass (304). Giiddy up, y'all.

McLaurin is a SMASH play as my WR11 this weekend. He ranks almost 10 spots ahead of industry consensus in my flex ranks as a near top-25 option.

Amari Cooper | WR | Browns

The Cleveland passing attack got an upgrade last week thanks to a date with the Commanders, which ended in misery. Cooper again did his part with a mouth-watering 38% target share, but only 50% of his targets were catchable, leading to a 10-point fantasy performance.

Still, catchable targets are a factor in the Utilization Score, which still says Cooper is due for regression. His comps have averaged 14.3 points per game, and the Browns have another favorable matchup against the Eagles. The WR position has enjoyed a 6.3-point fantasy boost against Philadelphia.

Deshaun Watson is one of the worst QBs in football, but Cooper UPGRADES to so-you're-telling-me-there's-a-chance territory as a high-end WR3 option.

Diontae Johnson | WR | Panthers

Johnson doesn't have a smash matchup or any one-week event working in his favor, but this is a reminder that he has a 9.0 Utilization Score in three games with Andy Dalton. He has a tantalizing 30% target and 49% air yards share over those three games, averaging 17.8 points per contest.

Don't overreact to Johnson's bad Week 5. He REMAINS a mid-range WR2 with WR1 upside.

Calvin Ridley | WR | Titans

Unlike many other upgrades listed this week, Ridley doesn't have multiple factors working in his favor. His 17% target share (despite a limited DeAndre Hopkins) has left his Utilization Score (5.2) in WR5 territory. He and Will Levis have not found their groove to this point–a similar issue Ridley battled for much of the season last year with Trevor Lawrence in Jacksonville.

However, Ridley does have one thing working in his favor: a matchup against the Colts. Ridley will look to get his against a defense that has allowed the third-most passing yards per game (280), leading to a 4.3 fantasy point boost for the WR position.

Ridley UPGRADES to low-end WR3 status and could catch lightning in a bottle with a couple of deep catches for TDs.

WR Rapid Fire Upgrades

  • Jakobi Meyers | Raiders: Meyers has an 8.0 Utilization Score over the last two games without Davante Adams in the lineup, thanks to a sizzling 30% target share. Adams is out this weekend. While the Raiders' passing attack doesn't offer huge upside, Meyers UPGRADES to low-end WR3 status.
     
  • Seattle WRs | Seahawks: None of the WRs dominate targets, but the team has the No. 1 dropback rate over expected (10%). They have dropped back to pass on 70% of plays and rank third in plays per minute over expected (PPMOE), which normalizes for game scripts. When you put all those puzzle pieces together, you get an offense dropping back a league-high 45 times per game. That has boosted targets per game for DK Metcalf (8.4) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (7.8).

Brock Bowers | TE | Raiders

Bowers has delivered a 25% target share over the last two games without Adams–who will miss another game in Week 6. Bowers has an 8.3 Utilization Score over this stretch. Tight ends with a similar score have finished as a top-three TE 27% of the time while locking down a finish between fourth and sixth 55%.

Bowers is my TE2 this weekend.

Trey McBride | TE | Cardinals

McBride returned to the lineup last weekend to collect 11.3 fantasy points, bringing his average to 10.9 on the season. While that still makes McBride a top-six option at the position, fantasy managers were hoping for more when they drafted him. In his three healthy games, McBride has an 8.2 Utilization Score, which makes him a mid-range TE1 at worst.

However, the man with a 30% target share and 22% air yards share in those three healthy contests still has No. 1 overall in his range of outcomes. That could all start this weekend in a potential shootout against a Packers defense, allowing the fourth-most points per game to opposing pass catchers at 32.7.

This might be our last chance to buy low on McBride, who is a top-50 flex option this weekend as my TE4.

Fallers In The Week 6 Fantasy Football Rankings

Josh Allen | QB | Bills

The Bills offense started hot, but Allen is down to 189 yards per game passing after throwing for only 131 yards against the Texans in Week 5. The reigning QB1 is still involved enough in the rushing attack with an 8% designed rush share and 10% scramble rate to stay in the mid-range QB1 conversation. However, the upside is capped in the current iteration of the Bills passing game.

A tough matchup with the Jets–who have limited much better versions of Buffalo's passing game in recent years–makes Allen a riskier-than-normal play. New York has allowed the second-fewest passing yards per game (161), limiting opposing QBs to the fewest fantasy points through the air at eight per game.

Allen DOWNGRADES to mid-range QB1 territory and has a *gulp* low-end QB2 floor.

Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | Patriots

Stevenson already made the sell-high list in the Utilization Report this week due to a declining role in one of the worst offenses in the NFL. He held onto the lead rushing role last weekend (67%), but his involvement in the passing game has diminished. Over his last three outings, his route participation has fallen to 39%.

So what do we have here? We have the primary rushing option whose weekly upside might be solely reliant on TDs in an offense that isn't going to score often. Oh yeah, when the Patriots are getting their doors blown off in trailing scripts, Stevenson could be eliminated from the game plan. Yikes.

New England is a seven-point dog to the Texans this weekend. The Patriots will undoubtedly try their hardest to establish the run to protect Drake Maye in his first start but this could get ugly in a hurry.

Stevenson DOWNGRADES to high-end RB3 territory.

WR Rapid Fire Downgrades

  • Brian Thomas | Jaguars: I love BTJ, but Week 6 poses a challenge. First, we should see the return of Evan Engram, which could dilute his target share (22%), which is already in WR3 territory. Alone, that wouldn't be enough because Thomas has shown a penchant for coming up with the big play. However, we also have a matchup with a Bears secondary that has limited the WR position to the third-lowest boost (-8.8 points). I wanted to upgrade Thomas to mid-range WR2 territory this week, but that will have to wait–he is a borderline WR2 with dud potential.
     
  • Josh Downs | Colts: Downs has a 7.1 Utilization Score, partially thanks to his 30% target share since returning to the lineup. That makes him a player I would love to be bullish on, but we could see the return of Anthony Richardson to the lineup, which is a massive downgrade from Flacco in completion rate (51% vs. 70%). Additionally, the Colts face the second-toughest defense against WRs. The Titans have held opposing WR rooms to 11.1 points under their average. Downs DOWNGRADES to WR4 status with Richardson but offers boom-bust WR3 potential if Flacco starts.
     
  • Ladd McConkey | Chargers: This pains me. McConkey is another young WR trending up in his Utilization Score (5.9), thanks to a substantial target share (27%). Unfortunately, the Chargers are a run-first operation with the fourth-lowest DBOE (-5.6%), and they have a matchup against the most formidable secondary in the league. Denver has held opposing WR rooms 11.4 points below their average. McConkey DOWNGRADES to WR4 status and carries high dud risk.

Tucker Kraft | TE | Packers

The second-year TE has enjoyed 86% and 79% route participation marks in the last two games. Luke Musgrave suffered an injury in Week 4 that knocked him out of the game and kept him off the field in Week 5. So, we don't know how the playing time will divide with Musgrave back at practice on Wednesday.

I lean toward Kraft keeping the starting role, but his 15% target share is below mid-range to high-end TE1 standards. In three games with Jordan Love, with route participation of over 80%, Kraft has a 6.5 Utilization Score. Based on historical comps, that give Kraft credit for his big-play ability, that makes him a near coin flip to finish outside the top 12.

Kraft is a low-end TE1 this weekend, but I am four spots below consensus.

Sicko Starts of the Week in Fantasy Football Week 6

I want to throw in a few names for all my fellow fantasy managers that are in a SICKO league. If you are in a 12-team league with three starting WRs and two flexes, these are for you! Or you are in a more typical setup but need a name to help get you through injuries; these are for you!

Season: 10 of 18

Let's go, you sickos.

Daniel Jones | QB | Giants

The Bengals have allowed the seventh-most points to opposing QBs through the air, and the Giants have recently shown some life in the passing attack. This recommendation is contingent on Malik Nabers playing, but Jones projects for 17.6 points in my projections, which is higher than names like Caleb Williams and Jared Goff, thanks to Jones' involvement on the ground.

Jones offers low-end QB1 upside in a matchup against a Bengals secondary, allowing the third-highest fantasy boost (4.3). 

Tyjae Spears | RB | Titans

Spears hasn't been as involved as we wanted to start the year, but coming off of a bye week, we could see a bump in usage. The Colts allow the most rushing yards per game (157) and offer the fourth-best fantasy boost (5.0) per game to the RB position.

Spears is a low-end RB3 but offers RB2 upside if you need bye-week help. 

Jalen Tolbert | WR | Cowboys

Tolbert came to life last weekend with Brandin Cooks placed on IR. The third-year WR registered a 26% target share and delivered a 9.1 Utilization Score. While I am not confident in him sustaining these levels thanks to an underlying 16% TPRR this season, the matchup is B-E-A-U-T-I-F-U-L this weekend against a funnel defense in Detroit (see Dak Prescott in the risers section).

Tolbert is a WR4 with WR2 spike upside.

Zach Ertz | TE | Commanders

This is my third time to write about Ertz as a sicko this season, but I can't stop now. He has a choice matchup against a funnel defense in the Ravens and ranks second on the Commanders with an 18% target share. His 6.6 Utilization Score says we should have him ranked closer to guys like Tucker Kraft, Dalton Kincaid, and Pat Freiermuth.

Ertz offers low-end TE1 upside if you are in a pinch in Week 6.

Brass Balls Bench - Sit of the Week in Fantasy Football Week 6

I don't necessarily fully endorse these plays, but if you are willing to make big calls, these players could find their way to your bench if you are loaded with other options.

Season: 7 of 9

Brian Robinson Jr. | RB | Commanders

Robinson has been an excellent mid-to-late-value, averaging 15.4 points per game as the RB15 in fantasy. His 6.8 Utilization Score hints at volatility due to his 41% route participation and 8% target share. That sort of profile can struggle in non-leading game scripts. 

We have seen similar backs in good offenses like David Montgomery thrive in this sort of role as long as their offense remains hot. And buddy, the Commanders are sun-running. They rank No. 1 in TDs per drive (63%), leaving room for optimism the rest of the way on Robinson. However, the Ravens present a significant challenge this weekend.

Baltimore is by far the most stingy run defense in the NFL, allowing only 60 yards per contest. However, teams have lit them up through the air for the most yards passing per game at 304. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to forecast a pass-heavy attack by Washington in this matchup.

Robinson DOWNGRADES to low-end RB2 territory and might depend on a rushing TD to avoid a dud performance.