And just like that: Week 6 is upon us. Let's break down some ball!

Every week I will be going through 10 key storylines ahead of all the NFL action, focusing on key fantasy-related trends, the week's biggest mismatches, my personal rankings of every game, bold predictions, and much more.

As always: It's a great day to be great.

1. What's going on with Marvin Harrison Jr.?

On the one hand, the 2024 NFL Draft's No. 4 overall pick hasn't had a bad first five career games: 279 yards, 4 TDs, and the 18th most PPR points of any WR. Marvin Harrison Jr. has by all accounts been a solid professional pass catcher this season and has a solid Utilization Score of 7.1.

On the other, solid wasn't what folks who used a first- or second-round pick on Maserati Marv in August were necessarily hoping for. The game-by-game production hasn't exactly lived up to expectations with the exception being his blowup Week 2 performance:

  • Week 1: 1 reception-4 yards-0 TD (3 targets), PPR WR103
  • Week 2: 4-130-2 (8), WR1
  • Week 3: 5-64-1 (11), WR20
  • Week 4: 5-45-1 (6), WR27
  • Week 5: 2-36-0 (7), WR60

Watching Harrison play hasn't exactly alleviated concerns. Nothing has been easy to start the season, as no WR has had a higher percentage of their targets be of the contested variety (38%). This is mostly because of the Cardinals' insistence on mostly feeding Harrison on lower-percentage downfield routes: Harrison joins fellow rookie Adonai Mitchell as the only receivers with at least 30% of their targets coming on go routes and/or fades this season (per TruMedia).

More time should help matters. Harrison and Kyler Murray have been oh so close to connecting on more than a few back shoulder/sideline fades this season, and the 22-year-old receiver is still on pace for a more than respectable season-long 58-949-14 receiving line.

Still, we're looking at one of fantasy's most-TD-dependent pass catchers at the moment—there's not much room for error here as long as the Cardinals continue to largely decline to feed their No. 1 WR the sorts of "easy" lower-aDOT designed targets that guys like Malik Nabers and Amon-Ra St. Brown among others have feasted on this season.

Highest percentage of fantasy points to come from TDs among top-36 PPR WRs

Up next is a Packers secondary that has allowed the ninth-most PPR points per game to opposing WRs and hasn't had No. 1 CB Jaire Alexander (groin) for each of the past two games. It'd make sense if more time in the offense leads to more consistent yardage production out of the rookie, otherwise drafters might be dealing with a bit more of a volatile fantasy WR2 than they signed up for.

2. Who benefits in Houston if Nico Collins (hamstring) is sidelined?

Nico Collins is considered week-to-week after suffering a hamstring injury while scoring a 67-yard TD during the Texans' Week 5 win over the Bills.

The injury is obviously a kick in the nuts to Collins' fantasy managers and the Texans offense in general. The fourth-year baller was averaging an NFL-high 113.4 receiving yards per game and was emerging as a viable pick as THE WR1 in fantasy land for the rest of the season. Collins' average of 3.49 yards per route run is easily tops in the NFL and would trail only Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill … ever … if kept up throughout the rest of the year.

So, yeah, losing anyone's idea of an elite No. 1 WR is hardly ideal for C.J. Stroud and Co., but that doesn't mean one of the league's most lethal passing attacks will completely stop putting up big-time numbers.

A look at the Texans' utilization from Week 5 specifically demonstrates the reality that Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell should be ready to take serious steps forward in the coming weeks.

Texans WRs in Week 5

  • Stefon Diggs: 90% routes, 21% targets per route run, 22% target share
  • Tank Dell: 86% routes, 11% targets per route run, 11% target share
  • Xavier Hutchinson: 67% routes, 11% targets per route run, 8% target share
  • Robert Woods: 19% routes, 0% targets per route run, 0% target share
  • John Metchie: 2% routes, 0% targets per route run, 0% target share

Diggs' 6.6-yard average target depth reflects the reality that he's been featured more so as the offense's underneath option this season, while Dell (11.3) might be the better candidate to soak up some of Collins' (12.6) fantasy-friendly downfield opportunities. The second-year WR has disappointed with zero TDs and just 34.3 yards per game, but make no mistake about it: He remains a very good professional football player.

And then there's Hutchinson, who is seemingly positioned to work as the No. 3 WR ahead of Bobby Trees and Metchie. The 2023 sixth-round pick has only 25 career targets to his name, but there's a bit to like here from a tools perspective:

  • Hutchinson stands 6-foot-2 and weighs 203 pounds, making him the new big target in this relatively pint-sized WR room.
  • The Iowa State product ran a solid 40-yard dash (4.53 seconds) and posted an above-average speed score (97.7, 65th percentile).
  • Hutchinson broke Justin Blackmon's Big 12 record for most receptions (254) by a three-year player during his time in college.

Look, I'm not expecting Hutchinson to outproduce Diggs or Dell, but remember: Noah f*cking Brown posted 6-153-1, 7-172-0, and 8-82-1 receiving lines in three of his spot starts last year. There's plenty of room for multiple parties to ball out inside this Stroud-led passing attack.

Of course, this sentiment also applies to TE1 Dalton Schultz, who has maintained a full-time role this season, even if the production has lagged through five weeks.

Last year, Schultz posted 4-71-0 and 4-58-0 receiving lines in two games with Collins sidelined. Not exactly world-beating numbers, but still deserving of a bump up the ol’ fantasy ranks given the overall lackluster performance from the TE position as a whole this season.

Up next is a Patriots pass defense that has been flamed by the likes of Geno Smith (327 yards-1 TD-0 INT), Aaron Rodgers (281-2-0), and Brock Purdy (288-1-1) ever since their promising season-opening win over the Bengals. Fire up Diggs as a borderline WR1, Dell as a boom-or-bust WR3 (at worst), Hutchinson as an upside WR5, and Schultz as a legit top-10 option at the position ahead of Sunday's smashable spot.

3. Is this Bills passing attack fixable?

Josh Allen and Co. were riding high after three weeks of action. Scoring 34, 31, and 47 points against seemingly formidable opponents in the Cardinals, Dolphins, and Jaguars led to many wondering if the offense was, in fact, BETTER off without the services of longtime No. 1 WR Stefon Diggs.

Fast forward to the present day … and sheesh. Back-to-back disappointing offensive performances against the Ravens (10 points, 155 pass yards) and Texans (20 points, 126 pass yards) have demonstrated the reality that, no, this offense is not superior in the absence of the four-time Pro Bowler—and the ramifications have been felt strongly by Allen's fantasy managers.

Josh Allen 2024 fantasy finishes

  • Week 1: QB1
  • Week 2: QB28
  • Week 3: QB1
  • Week 4: QB26
  • Week 5: QB19

Reminder: Allen had just four finishes outside the position's top-18 performers in the 2021, 2022 and 2023 seasons combined. This truly is a new level of low from the perennial fantasy superstar, and things don't exactly look on the verge of getting THAT much better ahead of next Monday night's tough matchup against Sauce Gardner and Co.

Don't get it twisted: Allen's rushing prowess will continue to elevate his fantasy floor and keep him inside the position's top-5 options even if the passing game doesn't get back to partying at pre-2024 levels. Still, this week's matchup features a Jets defense that has limited Allen to 205-0-2, 147-1-0, 236-1-3, and 275-3-1 passing lines in their last four matchups.

The return of Khalil Shakir (ankle) would help matters, but what this offense really needs is for Allen to get his fastball back: Few have been as prolific as No. 17 at throwing downfield over the years, but the Bills simply haven't found a way to consistently click on these sorts of targets through five weeks.

Allen passer rating on passes thrown 20+ yards downfield:

  • 2024: 61.0 (28th among 35 qualified QBs)
  • 2023: 75.1 (30/40)
  • 2022: 102.8 (9/40)
  • 2021: 99.6 (11/38)
  • 2020: 103.0 (14/39)

Allen's pass catchers certainly deserve part of the blame, as does an offensive line that has allowed Allen to be pressured on 38.1% of his dropbacks—the sixth-highest mark in the NFL.

Ultimately, this team is in dire need of someone to step up in the absence of Shakir. Second-round rookie Keon Coleman has flashed a bit, but certainly isn't being used like a true No. 1 WR. Meanwhile, Mack Hollins did a good job at getting open deep last week, but the likes of Curtis Samuel (9-48-0) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (2-26-0) haven't provided any level of upside to start the year. Hell, team target leader Dalton Kincaid (15-166-1) has largely been forgettable as a receiver and downright atrocious as a blocker.

I wouldn't bet against Allen and Co. figuring things out in the long term, but three teamwide performances of 155 or fewer pass yards is awfully concerning for a team that had just seven-such games during the 2020-2023 seasons combined. Don't expect things to get considerably better in the near term against a Jets defense that has allowed a league-low 8.7 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs this season.

4. Should we be panicking about Deebo Samuel?

The longtime stud playmaker has posted relatively underwhelming 17-233-0 receiving and 15-36-1 rushing lines this season on his way to working as just the WR33 in PPR points per game. Last week's performance was particularly concerning, as Deebo Samuel totaled just 20 scoreless yards on 4 touches against a Cardinals defense that the 49ers were largely expected to toy with.

Of course, sometimes even relatively bad NFL defenses are capable of taking away a great player if they try hard enough. It probably wasn't a coincidence that Brandon Aiyuk (8-147-0) went OFF during the same week where Samuel was so quiet. The 49ers also threw George Kittle a season-high 12 targets; it's tough to expect ALL of San Fran's talented pass-catchers to reach their tantalizing ceilings during any given week considering there's only one football to go around.

And yet, it's tough to immediately assume better days are ahead of Samuel. While the Jim's and Joe's in Seattle didn't give Deebo much trouble last season (PPR WR9, WR1 finishes), the Mike MacDonald-led Ravens certainly did (WR45) on their way to forcing Brock Purdy to throw a career-high four interceptions.

The biggest concern for Samuel comes down to his newfound inability to make something out of nothing. Regularly one of the NFL's premiere tackle-breakers, the 49ers' WR/RB hybrid simply hasn't been the same monster with the football in his hands through five weeks:

  • 2021: 20 MTF on 77 receptions (26%)
  • 2022: 32 MTF on 56 receptions (57%)
  • 2023: 25 MTF on 60 receptions (42%)
  • 2024: 1 MTF on 17 receptions (6%)

Maybe Samuel is still banged up. He missed Week 3 with a calf injury and has returned to just 9 touches in two games after racking up 23 in two games before. Still, things weren't going much better to start the season, particularly on the ground where the usual king of efficiency has averaged a brutal 2.4 yards per carry.

Samuel ranked first, first, third, and first in yards after the catch above expected per reception during the 2020 to 2023 seasons. He ranks … 42nd so far in 2024. I'd venture to guess Deebo will play some better ball in the weeks ahead, but failure to return to elite form could render his production to something closer to the sort of WR3 volume that he's generally been working with over the years.

5. What rookie QBs have improved the most this season?

The below chart denotes each rookie QB's PFF pass grade by week to start the season.

Clearly, Commanders rookie QB Jayden Daniels has achieved the most consistent excellence this season, but Bears QB Caleb Williams and, yes, Broncos QB Bo Nix have closed the gap in recent weeks with relatively solid improvements of their own.

Now, matchups have certainly played a part in this. Daniels was a bit more of a juggernaut against the Giants, Bengals and Cardinals than vs. the Browns, while it's probably not a coincidence Williams and Nix turned in their season-best performances against the Panthers and Raiders, respectively.

Remember: This is just throwing the football. Daniels' Lamar Jackson-esque rushing numbers easily clear both Williams and Nix; the Commanders’ QB1 leads the NFL in EPA per dropback and will continue to be treated as a top-three option in fantasy football.

The bigger question is if we can start to trust Williams and/or Nix as legit fantasy options. The former QB might have benefited from a cozy Week 5 matchup, but the Bears passing game has also gotten healthier, and the schedule Gods continue to smile down on this offense:

Bears upcoming schedule:

  • Week 6 vs. Jaguars: 32nd in fantasy points per game allowed to QBs
  • Week 7 Bye
  • Week 8 at Commanders: 25th
  • Week 9 at Cardinals: 24th

Don't get TOO carried away, but at least ahead of this week: Fire up Williams as the borderline QB1 that you drafted him to be in fantasy land all those weeks ago.

As for Nix: Give the 2024 NFL Draft's No. 12 overall pick for easily putting forward his best career performance last Sunday.

 

Nix has also continued to surprise on the ground: He joins Daniels, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Justin Fields, and Kyler Murray as the only six QBs averaging at least 6 fantasy points per game from purely rushing production this season. Not too shabby for the man with the shortest full name in NFL history.

Unfortunately for Nix, he doesn't have quite the same cozy upcoming schedule against the Chargers (4th fewest fantasy points per game allowed to QBs) and Saints (6th) over the next two weeks; there aren't enough high-end pass-game options in Denver to really feel good about the rookie as more than a low-end QB2 in fantasy land just yet.

Speaking of upcoming strength-of-schedules …

6. What positions have the softest upcoming schedules?

I calculated the easiest and hardest schedules for QB, RB, WR, and TE over the course of the next five weeks to (hopefully) help us out on the waiver wire streets to best deal with the incoming onslaught of byes.

The following teams and positions are set up pretty, pretty, pretty well thanks to relatively cozy upcoming stretches:

  • QB: The Vikings, Packers, Bears, Giants, and Dolphins are set up best over the next five weeks. Bye weeks could result in guys like Sam Darnold, Caleb Williams, and Tua Tagovailoa hitting the waiver wires—don't be afraid to scoop them up and take advantage of these potential smash spots.
  • RB: The Dolphins, Bears, Falcons, Eagles, and Vikings possess the best upcoming schedules. While you'll be hard-pressed to find any of these starting RBs on the waiver wire, it's a good reminder that guys like Tyler Allgeier and Ty Chandler are handcuffs worth stashing—each is one injury away from breaking into the position's top-15—and Aaron Jones (hip) is already banged up.
  • WR: The Vikings, Bears, Packers, Jaguars, and Cowboys each will be spending most of the next five weeks against some soft secondaries. Let me be the 999th fantasy "expert" to tell you not to overreact to Dontayvion Wicks' Week 5 dud, while we should also begin to take Cowboys WR Jalen Tolbert a bit more seriously—particularly as long as Brandin Cooks (knee, IR) remains sidelined. 
  • TE: The easiest schedules here belong to the Broncos, Raiders, Dolphins, Buccaneers, and Saints. While you'd be hard-pressed to find an overly reliable fantasy TE from four of those squads, perhaps this will be the time of the year where Tampa Bay TE1 Cade Otton surprises. He's posted respectable 3-44-0, 6-52-0, and 7-47-0 receiving lines over the past three weeks and boasts the position's third-highest route rate on the season.

Note that the above positions are hyperlinked with a full breakdown of every team's upcoming schedule from best to worst if you're into that kind of thing.

Oh, you want some DST guidance as well? Fine. Just no kickers. NEVER.

7. What defenses should we be stashing in fantasy land?

Picking the right DST can be tricky in fantasy land. Matchups generally dictate the best plays, but then again we don't want to FULLY fade the actual real-life ability of these units—just look at the Raiders, who failed to supply a top-12 finish despite getting three straight great (on-paper) matchups against the Panthers, Browns and Broncos.

That said: The following four defenses have at least been passable in real life and look ready to supply fantasy managers with multiple weeks of goodness before you'll need to look back to the waiver wire.

  • Steelers (69% rostered on ESPN: LV, NYJ, NYG, BYE, WSH): The most unlikely group to be available on your waiver wire, but you could imagine what it'd be like if they were. Three straight smash matchups are on the table before T.J. Watt and Co. will need to be ditched for their Week 9 bye.
  • Bills (25% rostered on ESPN: NYJ, TEN, SEA, MIA, IND): The DST9 on the season looks like a potential A+ group to have in at least four of the next five weeks. The next two matchups are absolutely secured against a hobbled Aaron Rodgers and Will Levis, while swallowing one less-than-ideal spot against Geno Smith and Co. might be worth it if the Dolphins remain without Tua Tagovailoa and Anthony Richardson returns under center.
  • Chargers (17.1% rostered on ESPN: DEN, ARI, NO, CLE, TEN): Joey Bosa and Co. had a bye week to get healthy and now will face Bo Nix, Kyler Murray (not ideal), Derek Carr, Deshaun Watson or Jameis Winston, and Will Levis over the next five weeks. That's an awfully enticing stretch for a group that has already averaged more fantasy points per game than all but five other DSTs this season. 
  • Eagles (10.1% rostered on ESPN, CLE, NYG, CIN, JAX, DAL): This is more of a two-week pit stop, but what a two-game stretch it could be against Deshaun Watson and Daniel Jones. While this Eagles defense is probably the worst of the group in terms of their demonstrated real-life ability, it hasn't taken much to get past Cleveland's offensive line this year, and the Philly front-seven at a minimum remains formidable.

OK, looking into the future was cool and all, but now let's get back to business and focus on this week.

8. What are the biggest on-paper mismatches in Week 6?

Every week I put together a group of charts meant to provide easy-to-decipher matchup advantages on both sides of the ball in a handful of categories. This includes combined explosive pass/run-play rates, pressure, yards before contact, pass yards per dropback and EPA per play. The idea is to have one metric to show a mismatch instead of always going, "Offense ranks x, defense ranks y."

Without further adieu: The week's biggest mismatches in these ever-important categories. Feel free to click on any of the below categories for a full chart.

  • Explosive passing offense: The Falcons, Ravens, Packers, Commanders, and Texans passing games appear to be set up quite well. However, the Chargers, Patriots, and Panthers aren't looking too hot at the moment ahead of their tough respective matchups.
  • Explosive running offense: The Ravens, Bengals, Jaguars, Cardinals, and Colts all look poised to do good things on the ground this week. Meanwhile, the Giants, Bears, and Commanders, in particular, look to have their work cut out for them.
  • Pressure: The Colts, Panthers, and Bears look ready to provide plenty of clean pockets this week, while the Eagles, Patriots, and Chargers could be facing more pressure than they'd prefer.
  • Yards before contact per carry: RBs from the Ravens, Seahawks, and Eagles might have more clear runways than usual this week, but the opposite is true for the Titans, Texans, and Buccaneers.
  • Pass yards per dropback: The best setup passing attacks look like the Falcons, Packers, and Lions this week, while the worst look like the Patriots, Chargers, and Browns.
  • EPA per play: Commanders-Ravens stands out as THE shootout of the week, whereas Chargers-Broncos, Steelers-Raiders, and Colts-Titans look like the defensive slugfests.

9. Ranking every game of the week from a biased entertainment perspective

I remain steadfast in the idea that no NFL game is inherently "bad." Complaining about specific matchups is ignoring the reality that relatively *bad* football is so much better than *no* football; we should NEVER dismiss any given 60 minutes of professional action on the gridiron.

With that said: Some matchups are indeed more awesome than others, so let's take a quick second to rank every matchup of the week in terms of what I'm looking forward to most through my own biased lenses:

  1. Commanders-Ravens: Arguably the NFL's two best QBs of the young 2024 season square off at 1 p.m. ET in one of the week's two matchups featuring a game total north of 50 points. Get your popcorn ready for this one.
  2. 49ers-Seahawks: Could we perhaps be looking at a second straight awesome Thursday night game? We can dream, but either way: The pass-happy Seahawks have never played a normal football game, and the 49ers are suddenly in dire need of a win after suffering two of the worst late-game collapses you'll ever see within the last three weeks.
  3. Cardinals-Packers: Neither offense has put its best foot forward for 60 straight minutes this season, but you could imagine what it'd be like if they did. Another potentially electric 1 p.m. ET matchup features a robust game total of 49.5 points—the third-highest mark of Week 6.
  4. Lions-Cowboys: A rematch of last year's wonky Week 17 matchup pits two teams that still fancy themselves as legit contenders in the wide-open NFC. This one has serious fireworks potential with the Cowboys defense still very much banged up.
  5. Bills-Jets: Two AFC East squads with their backs up against the wall on Monday night football. The only reason why this Josh Allen-Aaron Rodgers matchup isn't higher is because, well, neither QB has played what some folks might refer to as "good football" recently.
  6. Buccaneers-Saints: This matchup would probably be a few notches lower if we weren't looking at another potential fight between Mike Evans and Marshon Lattimore. That alone is enough to earn a spot on the quadbox.
  7. Bengals-Giants: We'll be waiting all day for this Sunday night matchup featuring one of the league's very best offenses (Bengals) and a defense bad enough to help basically any opposing offense look great (also the Bengals). It would also be a lot cooler if Malik Nabers (concussion) is back for this one.
  8. Colts-Titans: While injured versions of Anthony Richardson vs. Will Levis might not scream "good football," anything can happen when these volatile QBs are on the field. Seriously: ANYTHING, for better or (probably mostly) worse.
  9. Falcons-Panthers: The NFC South has gone from the laughingstock of the NFL to still not very good, but at least the division boasts four offenses that are capable of putting up some points on their good days, and defenses seldom capable of completely shutting down the opposition.
  10. Jaguars-Bears: We would have been a LOT more excited about Trevor Lawrence vs. Caleb Williams a few weeks ago, and hey, maybe both stay hot and surprise us after each played their best football of the season in Week 5. Still, there's only so much excitement a human can offer at 9:30 a.m. ET, even if the London crowd figures to have plenty of Blake Bortles jerseys.
  11. Texans-Patriots: Don't get me wrong, C.J Stroud is always a joy to watch play football, but the potential absence of Nico Collins (hamstring) hurts, and the Patriots have been maybe the single-sorriest offense in the league through five weeks. Getting confirmation that Drake Maye will make his starting debut would bump this matchup up a few spots, but even that could turn sour quickly should the Patriots offensive line continue to, you know, suck at football.
  12. Chargers-Broncos: A matchup featuring the NFL's top two scoring defenses predictably carries the week's lowest game total at a lowly 35.5 points. Here's to hoping Justin Herbert is a bit healthier following the team's bye, but even then he figures to spend most of his afternoon simply handing the ball off.
  13. Browns-Eagles: Stephen A. Smith summed up the Deshaun Watson experience pretty perfectly this week. While I doubt simply plugging Jameis Winston into the starting lineup would turn the Browns into a good football team, it'd certainly make them more fun! Meanwhile, the banged-up Eagles will hopefully be healthier following their Week 5 bye. they'd better hope so after scoring just 15 and 16 points, respectively, during their last two matchups.
  14. Steelers-Raiders: The Pittsburgh defense is the only above-average unit on either sideline. Hopefully Justin Fields makes a few fun plays, because otherwise the main storyline will simply be guessing how many times T.J. Watt and Co. can sack whatever sad excuse for a QB the Raiders decide to roll with this week.

10. Three bold predictions for Week 6:

Every week I'll put my reputation on the line regarding a handful of players I believe could outperform their general fantasy-related expectations. The majority will NOT work out—they wouldn't be bold otherwise—but will that stop me? Hell no!

Without further adieu: Let's get weird.

  • Lions RB David Montgomery: The Cowboys could again be without Micah Parsons, but honestly, even the presence of their All-Pro stud hasn't exactly helped slow down the league's better run offenses over the years. Expect Jahmyr Gibbs to ball out, too; just realize it's Montgomery who leads the way in both overall rush attempts (63 vs. 54) and carries inside the 5-yard line (4) this season. I like D-Mont to rack up triple-digit yards on the ground while finding the end zone not once, but twice against one of the NFL's six defenses to already allow at least 6 rushing TDs to RBs this season.
  • Packers WR Dontayvion Wicks: Last week sucked. Two receptions for 20 scoreless yards? Lame. But there's the thing: That Jordan Love guy remains very good at football, and even the return of Romeo Doubs (diva'ing) won't relegate Wicks to the bench. Last week's disappointing performance was also admittedly a better ball away from including a potential 57-yard TD. In the spirit of fantasy football, I like Wicks to rebound with a 7-119-2 receiving line the very week after most people gave up on him.
  • Texans WR Tank Dell: It's been a slow start to 2024 for the second-year talent, but don't be surprised if we see some familiar booms out of Dell with Nico Collins (hamstring) out of the picture. The Patriots are plenty familiar with Stefon Diggs' game; don't be surprised if it's Dell who winds up leading the way in targets—especially when C.J. Stroud wants to go downfield. I'm calling for 6 receptions, 133 yards, and 2 trips to the end zone for the Texans' pint-sized speedster.

Players highlighted last week and results: Brandon Aiyuk (8-147-0), Josh Downs (6-69-0), and Romeo Doubs (didn't play).

Other cool shit

  • Seahawks are a pass-first offense: With all due respect to the PPR RB3 Kenneth Walker, of course. Anyway, yeah: Seattle boasts a whopping +9% dropback rate over expected this season—only the Browns (+6%) are also over 5%. Here's to hoping this newfound pass-first philosophy leads to more Thursday night fireworks.
  • The Jaguars are back home in London: And despite head coach Doug Pederson claiming Travis Etienne is still RB1, it's growing increasingly difficult for them to keep Tank Bigsby off the field. The second-year back has turned into this year's De'Von Achane in terms of skewing any chart featuring advanced rushing metrics high and to the right, while the highlights have been borderline erotic.
  • You might have written D'Andre Swift off, but he didn't write back: Only Derrick Henry has totaled more yards and PPR points than Swift over the last two weeks of action. And you know what's even crazier? Swift was stopped just short of the goal line not once, not twice, but three times last week, leading to him "winning" Sheesh-VP. The man is firmly back in the upside RB2 conversation ahead of another winnable matchup with the Jaguars.
  • Mike Evans vs. Marshon Lattimore: Get your popcorn ready for this one, although expecting too many on-field fireworks out of Evans might be wishful thinking based on his history in this matchup. I'd never advise going out of your way to bench the future Hall-of-Fame WR, but he's truly only boomed once in 12 career matchups with his arch nemesis.
  • What happened to the Saints offense?: The NFL's highest-scoring team (45.5 PPG) in Weeks 1-2 ranks 27th (16.3) in three weeks since. Natural regression and tougher matchups help explain the dropoff, but offensive line injuries might be the biggest culprit: The Saints allowed a measly 20.9% pressure rate in Weeks 1-2 (2nd), compared to a 45.6% mark in Weeks 3-5 (29th). Throw in a banged-up version of Derek Carr (oblique), and it's tough to be overly optimistic about Alvin Kamara and Co. this week.
  • This Commanders rushing offense has been awesome: Consider that Austin Ekeler (7.9) and Jeremy McNichols (7.1) rank second and third in yards per carry among all RBs with at least 15 rush attempts this season. Throw in Brian Robinson—who has 14 TDs compared to 9 from Bijan Robinson since Week 1 of last season—and you have the NFL's second-most productive RB room in total rushing yards to only the Ravens.
  • Is this the best Lamar Jackson-led Ravens offense we've seen? So far: Yes. The NFL's No. 1 offense in EPA and yards per play also boasts the best start for the Ravens in the Lamar era (per Austin Gayle). Next up: A Commanders defense that ranks 27th in EPA allowed per play.
  • Joe Flacco is a GOD: The 39-year-old living legend threw for 359 yards and a trio of TDs last week, making it six consecutive starts with more than 300 passing yards (including the postseason). Only Dak Prescott (7) and C.J. Stroud (6) have more games with 300-plus yards and multiple TDs through the air than Flacco (5) since Week 1 of last season, but it's taken them 22 and 20 starts to get there … not six.
  • Who has the most touches this season without a TD? Answer: Najee Harris with 94. Yikes! Javonte Williams (70), Rachaad White (68), and Zamir White (54) are the only other players north of 50
  • Who has the most targets this season without a receiving TD? Answer: Brandon Aiyuk (37), closely followed by George Pickens (36), Tyler Lockett (32), Colby Parkinson (32), Travis Kelce (31), and Ray-Ray McCloud (31). Just like we all expected.
  • Is this the best version of the Bengals offense that we've seen?: It's pretty close! Joe Burrow leads the NFL with 12 passing TDs and is averaging career-best marks in passer rating (113.6) and QBR (73.6). The 2021 offense featured just a bit more per-pass efficiency, but clearly the league's fourth-ranked scoring offense is cooking with some fire to start the season.
  • Is Giants QB Daniel Jones actually playing quite well?: Let's not get too carried away, but yes! The artist known as Vanilla Vick has increased his yards per attempt in each and every week of the season and already has multiple TD passes in three games. For reference, Jones accomplished that feat just four times in the entire 2022 regular season. Up next is the Bengals' 31st-ranked scoring defense; here's to hoping fantasy's WR1 in PPR points per game is healthy enough to return to action.
  • J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets? The 2023 New York Jets scored 93 points in Weeks 1-5. The 2024 New York Jets have scored … 93 points in Weeks 1-5. Now, last year's group did admittedly benefit from some extra DST goodness, but you gotta admit: That's a provocative stat. Here's to hoping firing defensive-minded head coach Robert Saleh … fixes the offense? Good luck, Gang Green.