Living the fantasy life isn't always all fun and games, but that doesn't mean we can't appreciate the ups and downs that any given season presents along the way. Accordingly, we'll be chronicling some of the ebbs and flows of the fantasy calendar as we progress through the 2024 season. And just like that: We're on to Week 6 …

Fantasy football has a way of kicking you in the nuts just when you think you've got a handle on things.

A few examples:

  • Oh, you thought drafting Rashee Rice and Malik Nabers would be good? Get ready to learn injury reports, buddy.
     
  • The Commanders are EASILY one of the worst defenses in football, surely Deshaun Watson and the Browns got right against them. Oh, what's that? They totaled 108 passing yards? And they're now the only offense to gain under 300 total yards in each of the first five weeks of a season over the past five years? Very cool.
     
  • Breece Hall was on the VERY short list of likely 1.01 options if we decided to draft again after the first three weeks of football. Since then he's scored 10.5 PPR points which is less than notable STUDS like Samaje Perine, Miles Sanders, and Ameer Abdullah. Totally makes sense.

So, yeah, things have been a bit f*cked up in Fantasy Land this season primarily due to a mixture of injuries and good old-fashioned bad offensive play.

This has accordingly led to some SERIOUS surprises at the top of the fantasy ranks, so what better way to bring in the weekend than by fraud-checking some of the biggest early-season surprises?

Is Baker Mayfield A Legitimate QB1 In Fantasy Football?

Fraud Check: Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield

Mayfield is playing the best football of his career at the moment and it's like none of you even care.

Seriously: It's tough to find an advanced metric where Mayfield isn't posting career-best numbers, and his marks in EPA per dropback (+0.204, 4th) and PFF passing grade (80.6, 5th) reflect the reality that he's largely played as well as any signal-caller in the league.

This has accordingly produced some pretty, pretty, pretty great fantasy numbers: Mayfield only trails Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels in total fantasy points, as the man has really only turned in one sub-par performance through five weeks of action:

  • Week 1 vs. Commanders: QB2
  • Week 2 at Lions: QB5
  • Week 3 vs. Broncos: QB27
  • Week 4 vs. Eagles: QB3
  • Week 5 at Falcons: QB7

At first, the Week 3 dud seemed like a crash back to reality (ope, there goes gravity) for the former No. 1 overall pick, but we've learned in recent weeks that the Patrick Surtain-led Broncos sure look a lot like one of the league's better overall defenses.

Ultimately, Mayfield is putting up passing numbers with the best of 'em while also averaging a career-high 21.4 rushing yards per game. Baker can scoot! His previous career-high mark was just 10.3, so if there is an area of the game that we could expect to regress just a bit, it's probably on the ground.

Still: Tampa Bay's $100-million-man under center has now played far more good than bad football over his last 24 starts and deserves the benefit of the doubt as someone more than deserving to be in the weekly QB1 conversation. I'm not saying his current top-three heights will continue, but at a minimum he deserves to be grouped in with guys like Brock Purdy, Kirk Cousins, Geno Smith, and Jared Goff–fellow (usual) pass-first QBs in offenses with plenty of firepower to boom in the right matchup.

VERDICT: Kind of a fraud in the sense that top-three production seems unlikely to continue, but kind of not a fraud in the sense that a season-long QB1 finish is firmly on the table.

Is Chuba Hubbard Here To Stay?

Fraud Check: Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard

The Panthers passing game has received most of the attention since moving on from Bryce Young, but it's been Hubbard who has emerged as the best fantasy producer on the team. Overall, only Derrick Henry has scored more PPR points than Hubbard over the last three weeks. That's it!

As is the case with most RBs, this boom in production has in large part come thanks to a boom in usage: Hubbard failed to crack a Utilization Score north of seven points during the first two weeks, but his 8.8 mark in Weeks 3-5 is up there with the single-best marks in the league.

Chuba also deserves credit for, you know, being good at football.

Fifth in rush yards over expected (+1.75) this season, Hubbard has largely made the most out of his opportunities on the ground all year long … but will it keep up?

I'm not so sure. The 6'0", 216-pound elephant in the room is of course rookie RB Jonathon Brooks (knee, IR), who is tentatively expected to have his practice window opened soon. It's far from guaranteed that Brooks will simply take over the backfield-–Hubbard is playing too well to be completely cast aside–-but the team certainly used the 46th overall pick on him for a reason.

As much as the times have been great for this rushing attack in recent weeks, the team's upcoming schedule doesn't exactly look like the most fantasy-friendly stretch in the world:

  • Week 6 vs. Falcons: No. 6 in PPR points per game allowed to RBs
  • Week 7 at Commanders: No. 17
  • Week 8 at Broncos: No. 11
  • Week 9 vs. Saints: No. 14
  • Week 10 vs. Giants: No. 13
  • Week 11 Bye
  • Week 12 vs. Chiefs: No. 1

Hubbard is clearly a #good RB, but his three-down role will most likely start to shrink within the next week or two, and he's one injury and/or switch at QB away from once again operating inside arguably the single-worst offense in football.

VERDICT: Not a fraud for as long as Brooks stays sidelined, but don't count on this RB1 production persisting into November.

How High Is The Ceiling For Brian Thomas Jr.?

Fraud Check: Jaguars WR Brian Thomas Jr.

The 23rd overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft has largely done nothing other than ball the hell out this season, racking up 90-plus yards and/or scoring a TD in four of the first five games of his career.

Sure, Thomas' electric 85-yard TD last week might have been aided by a bit of a busted coverage, but grinding all of his film demonstrates the reality that the 6'3", 209-pound speedster is a problem for pretty much any mere mortal to deal with one-on-one.

There is little doubt the Jaguars found themselves a talented young receiver to build around, although expecting continued high-end production might be a bit wishful.

Consider: Thomas actually has fewer air yards than Christian Kirk this season, and this has really been more of a *three-headed* "monster" at WR with each of Thomas (34 targets), Kirk (33), and Gabe Davis (25) staying plenty involved.

Reminder: Target-hog TE Evan Engram (hamstring) also hasn't played since Week 1 and is tentatively expected to return Sunday against the Bears.

There's also the matter of Trevor Lawrence playing a lot like one of the worst QBs in football against anyone other than the Colts this season. It's possible Week 5 was the start of T-Law finally living up to his "generational" label and putting all the bad behind him, but that's hardly a given for an offense that ranked just 28th in total passing yards in Weeks 1-4.

VERDICT: Thomas is absolutely not a fraud, but his WR1-level fantasy production certainly feels a bit fraudulent given his newfound target competition and still iffy situation under center. I'd anticipate something closer to boom-or-bust low-end WR2 production moving forward.

Is Darnell Mooney A Weekly Must-Start?

Fraud Check: Falcons WR Darnell Mooney

The Falcons' less-heralded free-agent addition dudded in Week 1 with just 15 scoreless yards, but has ripped off 3-88-1, 8-66-0, 3-56-0, and 9-105-2 receiving lines in four weeks since.

While many including myself (ugh) assumed Kyle Pitts would be the clear No. 2 or even 1B pass-game option in Atlanta behind Drake London, this simply hasn't been the case through five weeks:

Falcons targets and air yards:

It's not realistic to expect Kirk Cousins to throw for 500-plus yards every week–-he failed to clear 241 in Weeks 1-4–-but the reality that Mooney has easily emerged as the veteran QB's second-favorite option makes the early-season production hard to completely scoff at.

At a minimum, don't expect Mooney's hot streak to go cold this Sunday against a Panthers defense that ranks 30th in EPA allowed per dropback this season. Mooney is a consensus top-26 option at the position among Fantasy Life's consensus rankers and someone I would start ahead of guys like Amari Cooper, George Pickens, Dontayvion Wicks, and Chris Olave among others. What a time to be alive.

VERDICT: It'd be surprising to see Mooney maintain top-15 status, although legit WR2 production the rest of the way can't be ruled out for the clear-cut No. 2 option inside a passing attack with legit high-end upside.

THE Late-Round TE of 2024?

Fraud Check: Packers TE Tucker Kraft

The Packers' second-year talent caught just six passes for 77 yards during the first three games of the season while largely splitting plenty of time with fellow 2023 day two draft pick Luke Musgrave.

And then the latter TE injured his ankle, setting up Kraft for back-to-back rather spectacular performances:

  • Week 4 vs. Vikings: 6 receptions-53 yards-1 TD (9 targets), PPR TE1
  • Week 5 at Rams: 4-88-2 (5), TE1

On the one hand, a hater could say this production isn't all that sustainable considering a lot of it has from beastly YAC moments.

On the other, YAC is certainly a skill, and Kraft leads all TEs in both yards after the catch above expected (+3.7) as well as ESPN Analytics' YAC rating. In fact, Kraft is ESPN's No. 1 highest-rated overall TE this season. Dallas Goedert is No. 2, which begs the question: What are they putting in the Gatorade coolers at South Dakota State?

Anyways, Musgrave will now serve a stint on the IR, making it more probable than not that Kraft continues to soak in something close to a true every-down role. That's one helluva scary thought for opposing fantasy managers considering the schedule that the Packers are working with over the next month:

  • Week 6 vs. Cardinals: 27th in EPA allowed per dropback
  • Week 7 vs. Texans: 11th
  • Week 8 at Jaguars: 32nd
  • Week 9 vs. Lions: 21st

VERDICT: Kraft will inevitably suffer some duds in a Packers passing game with plenty of avenues to go with the football; just realize young, talented TEs with proven upside inside of great offenses don't exactly fall off trees–I'm buying the idea that Kraft (continues) to emerge as THE late-round TE of 2024.

Good luck to everyone this week and always remember: It's a great day to be great!