Week 9 Fantasy Football Near TDs, Big Gains: Trey McBride, Josh Allen
Ian Hartitz showcases the near-miss touchdowns and big plays lost to penalty or overthrows in the Week 9 Sheesh Report.
Week 9 has come and gone. We saw 15 NFL games that brought joy, laughs, and tears to football fans and, of course, fantasy football faithful.
Today, we’ll focus on the latter sadness and break down just how close some came to achieving fantasy football glory. Critics might call this unnecessary cruelty, while supporters could claim it helps with understanding the full context of what exactly happened last week.
Either way: Welcome to the Sheesh Report.
What follows is a breakdown of all the tilting, near-miss moments from last week that left fantasy managers and fans alike saying, "Sheesh!" I’ve watched hours of film and combed play-by-play data to help determine instances when:
- Pass catchers could have scored or picked up big yardage with a more accurate pass
- Pass catchers did receive an accurate pass that should have resulted in a score or big gain, but the ball was dropped
- Ball carriers managed to get all the way to the 1-yard line, but didn’t score
- Players scored or picked up big yardage, but the play was nullified by a penalty
- Other random shit that managed to tilt fantasy football managers of all shapes and sizes
Let's kick things off with one of the sheeshier moments of Week 9 …
Poor Trey McBride
The Cardinals' stud TE managed to score his first TD of 2024 in Week 9, but it came courtesy of a rush attempt at the goal line. As a pass catcher, McBride has an NFL-high 60 targets without a TD this season.
Of course, this is hardly all his fault. Look no further than the below goal-line, play-action pass that featured McBride WIDE open for roughly 15 minutes in the back of the end zone, only for Kyler Murray to apparently not see him before it was too late.
I know the world loves to make short jokes at Kyler's expense, but in this case, it's truly hard to figure out why the ball came out so late … other than because the alleged 5-foot-10 QB couldn't see his wide-open TE over the line of scrimmage.
Ultimately, the Cardinals are sitting pretty at 5-4 and in first place in the NFC West, while McBride is the TE3 in PPR points per game: Life is still pretty, pretty, pretty good for both Cardinals fans and McBride's fantasy managers.
That said: Sheesh.
Naturally, McBride wasn't the only pass catcher to miss out on what seemed like a sure 6 points due to a bad throw by their QB.
Would have been a lot cooler if these passes were better
I looked at every incomplete pass that was thrown at least 10 yards downfield and/or into the end zone to get an idea of who just missed out on some big plays last week—and there were quite a few instances that stuck out:
- Chargers WR Ladd McConkey (70, blown coverage meant that a perfect throw had a chance for a LOT of YAC)
- Patriots WR DeMario Douglas (67, but wasn't exactly a layup)
- Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill (39, did catch the underthrow for 28 yards)
- Broncos WR Troy Franklin (33)
- Cowboys WR Jalen Tolbert (30, but did finish the drive with a 4-yard TD)
- Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs (15, but did rush for a TD the next play. Sorry, Jared Goff fantasy managers)
- Broncos WR Courtland Sutton (14)
- Texans WR John Metchie (9)
- Jaguars WR Brian Thomas Jr. (4)
- Broncos WR Lil'Jordan Humphrey (2)
- Cardinals TE Trey McBride (1)
You might have noticed that three separate Broncos made the above list. While last week I highlighted Bo Nix's pass catchers leaving some yards on the field at his expense, the opposite was true for most of Week 9 against the Ravens.
So yeah, these pass catchers were let down a bit by their QB—but sometimes the opposite is true.
What's worse than political advertisements? Dropped TDs
While drops are a somewhat subjective stat, you know one when you see one, and we, unfortunately, had to watch the following five players let a good-enough potential TD bounce off their hands and fall incomplete in Week 9:
- Panthers WR David Moore (33)
- Bills RB James Cook (22, would have needed a bit of YAC help but seemed to have an angle)
- Vikings TE Johnny Mundt (14, but it was diving to be fair)
- Packers WR Dontayvion Wicks (9)
- Bills WR Keon Coleman (11, and it was intercepted)
- Packers RB Chris Brooks (12, but would have needed a bit of YAC help)
- Browns WR Cedric Tillman (4)
A stickler could also say Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb "dropped" a potential 31-yard score, but the coverage was tight enough that personally I didn't find the incompletion too sheeshy.
You know what was objectively REALLY sheeshy? Chiefs WR Xavier Worthy failing to realizing he was running out of bounds on what should have been a rather easy 33-yard TD to open up Monday night football. Worthy wound up finishing with negative fantasy points thanks to -10 rushing yards. Hope you didn't need a Monday night miracle from him!
Man, those plays sucked. If only there was a way to actually calculate which pass catchers dealt with the most overall sheesh last week …
Unrealized air yards are a helluva drug
We can help quantify sheeshy missed downfield opportunities using "unrealized air yards," which are derived by subtracting yards after the catch from every player’s receiving yards total before taking the difference with total air yards to pinpoint exactly how much opportunity through the air (not including potential YAC) a player failed to come down with for one reason or another.
We're essentially measuring the total distance of everyone's incomplete targets. A high number indicates a player had lots of fantasy-friendly opportunities, but didn't capitalize on them for one reason or another. Cool? Cool.
ANYWAY: Nine players racked up at least 70 unrealized air yards in Week 9:
- Packers WR Christian Watson (109, and he could have scored a 74-yard TD had he kept running)
- Browns WR Elijah Moore (103)
- Bears WR Keenan Allen (99)
- Bears WR DJ Moore (96)
- Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (96)
- Patriots WR Kayshon Boutte (94)
- Texans WR Xavier Hutchinson (91)
- Texans TE Dalton Schultz (82)
- Rams WR Puka Nacua (73)
Through nine weeks just four players have 500-plus unrealized air yards: Titans WR Calvin Ridley (626), Giants WR Malik Nabers (529), Broncos WR Courtland Sutton (526), and Bills WR Amari Cooper (513, obviously almost entirely from his time with the Browns).
Say it with me everyone: Sheesh.
All that said: Our next category of sheesh is perhaps the most tilting of them all.
The Eagles RB special: Down at the 1-yard line, and no TD
Getting all the way to the 1-yard line but failing to score a TD is objectively a sheeshy feeling—particularly when fantasy managers are forced to watch someone else vulture away the score that was SO CLOSE to belonging to them.
Here’s the full list of Week 9’s players who managed to get the football within three feet of the goal line, but not quite across the plane, and ultimately didn’t score later on the same drive:
- Rams RB Kyren Williams
- Bills RB James Cook
- Cardinals RB James Conner
- Bengals RB Chase Brown
- Chiefs RB Kareem Hunt
- Commanders RB Austin Ekeler
- Broncos RB Javonte Williams
- Jaguars RB D'Ernest Johnson
- Commanders RB Chris Rodriguez
- Vikings WR Justin Jefferson
- Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase
- Broncos WR Courtland Sutton
- Buccaneers WR Trey Palmer
- Jets WR Malachi Corley (decided to drop the ball before the goal line)
- Jaguars TE Evan Engram
- Rams TE Davis Allen
- Bengals TE Tanner Hudson
- Commanders QB Jayden Daniels (on a kneel)
- Panthers QB Bryce Young
Also note that Eagles QB Jalen Hurts was stopped not once but twice just short of the goal line on tush push two-point conversion attempts. Sheesh.
Man, these sucked. Of course, arguably the only thing sheesh-ier than near-miss TDs are scores that were initially counted … until they weren't.
TD! Wait: Flag.
TDs usually get nullified by a penalty for a good reason, but that doesn’t make the roller coaster of adrenaline any less sheeshful for fantasy managers to deal with.
In Week 9 there were five such instances:
- Bills QB Josh Allen: Rumbled into the end zone on a fun 21-yard rush, only for the score to be taken off the board on what was objectively a bullshit holding call. No, I do not mean subjectively.
- Broncos QB Bo Nix: Briefly celebrated his potential fifth rushing TD of the season, but the 9-yard jaunt was quickly taken off the board due to a (warranted) holding penalty.
- Eagles WR Johnny Wilson: Had a 9-yard TD nullified due to OPI on himself because, yeah, he shoved his way open to make the score happen in the first place.
- Titans RB Tony Pollard: Had a SWEET 8-yard TD run unfortunately called back on a hold. Still, look at that cut!
- Giants WR Wan'Dale Robinson: Had a short 3-yard TD nullified due to one of the more ticky-tack OPI calls you'll ever see.
In addition to these TDs, Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (40-, 38-yard gains), Patriots WR Kendrick Bourne (22), Browns WR Cedric Tillman (19), Texans RB Joe Mixon (17), Falcons RB Tyler Allgeier (16), Commanders QB Jayden Daniels (16), and Ravens RB Justice Hill (15) all had explosive plays nullified for one reason or another.
That's right: JSN's massive Week 9 actually could have included *two* additional huge gains—the main was a couple of holding penalties away from pushing for 250 yards!
Gotta love it when officials insist on making the games about them. Wait, we actually hate that? Right. Of course. Let's focus on more of that hate then …
What if defensive pass interference yards counted for fantasy points?
Defensive pass interferences can be finicky and don’t always occur in instances when the targeted receiver would have FOR SURE made the catch.
That said: They are very annoying for fantasy managers to deal with when the result could’ve, should’ve, would’ve been a chunk gain—and maybe even a TD.
Overall, nine players gained at least 15 yards courtesy of DPI penalties in Week 9:
- Raiders WR Tre Tucker (27)
- Colts WR Alec Pierce (26)
- Seahawks WR Cody White (23)
- Commanders WR Noah Brown (22)
- Panthers TE Ja'Tavion Sanders (22)
- Jaguars TE Evan Engram (18)
- Bengals WR Andrei Iosivas (17)
- Raiders TE Brock Bowers (16)
- Giants WR Darius Slayton (15)
Brown (121) has a full 49 additional yards drawn on DPI penalties than the next-closest player this season (Davante Adams, 72). Madness.
There was also a reverse sheesh of sorts last week caused by the officials that deserves some attention …
The Saquon fumble that wasn't?
Obviously, Saquon Barkley fantasy managers aren't too down after the Eagles RB went for 199 scrimmage yards and a pair of TDs against the Jaguars. That said: His "fumble" turned scoop-and-score sure seemed iffy considering, you know, Barkley was touched by a defender before going to the ground and coughing up the football.
Sheeshy stuff indeed, but we aren't done yet: Some missed opportunities can't simply be blamed on the refs.
Was that interception REALLY the QB's fault?
From pressure, to a bad route, to an essential arm punt on 3rd and forever: There are quite a few reasons why any given interception might not necessarily be the QB's fault, even if that context isn't provided in the boxscore.
Good news for you, a scholar: Our Fantasy Life Sheesh Experts (just me, actually) have looked closely at each and every interception thrown in Week 9 to get an idea of which QBs probably deserve a bit of slack despite technically committing a turnover.
Specifically:
- Drop turned into an INT: Each of Trevor Lawrence (to Travis Etienne), Mason Rudolph (to Chigoziem Okonkwo), Geno Smith (to Jaxon Smith-Njigba), and Josh Allen (to Keon Coleman) threw interceptions that were initially directly dropped by their respective pass catchers. Rudolph and Allen's were especially sheeshy considering each seemed to have a chance for 6 points before the miscue (especially Allen's).
- Could have used some help from their friends: Both Bo Nix (to Lil'Jordan Humphrey) and Bryce Young (to Xavier Legette) threw passes that certainly seemed to be catchable—and at a minimum weren't egregious bad-decision INTs—yet the result was ultimately a turnover. The Young one in particular was NOT Bryce's fault; the pass was quite literally in Legette's bread basket before being yanked away for the INT.
- Sometimes screens don't work out: Joe Burrow attempted to throw a quick screen to Ja'Marr Chase, but Raiders CB Jack Jones made a helluva play to jump the route and take it back for six points. This isn't the first time Jones has done this. Great play, but yeah: Andrei Iosivas NEEDS to make that block. Good news, Bengals fans: They used the Raiders' aggressiveness against them later in the game via a fake-screen-turned-TD.
On the other side of things, the following QBs were lucky to not register an extra turnover, as PFF deemed these incomplete passes as dropped INTs: Matthew Stafford (2), Jameis Winston (2), Geno Smith (1), Bryce Young (1), Drake Maye (1), and even Cowboys P Bryan Anger (1). The league leaders in dropped INTs are Stafford (6) and Winston (5); the latter number is truly hilarious considering Jameis has played only two full games.
I think I speak for all of us when I say for one last time: Sheesh.
Thanks for stopping by. We're on to Week 10.