Being an analyst is like the “reaping and sowing” meme.

During the offseason, it’s all fun and games. The confidence in our takes is almost tangible. Viewing the 17-week season as nothing more than a thing happening in the (not-so-distant) future makes analyzing the players and offenses to target all the more exciting. We’re ready to prove ourselves! We know which skill players we should prioritize and scoff at the gamers drafting the “clear” duds.

And then reality hits.

A 31-year-old RB, who’s already run for 2,000 yards, nearly did it again behind one of the best offensive lines in the league? Oh.

What the heck is Achilles tendonitis? 

Did Sam LaPorta retire?

The rollercoaster that was the 2024 fantasy season brought me a lot of lessons. Some cost me a championship or two. But I didn’t completely whiff on my thoughts heading into the year. I’ll hold my Ls (of which there are many) shortly, but I wanted to highlight a few things I got right before the chaos unfolded.

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Kliff Kingsbury’s return to the NFL is a good thing

I largely (and sometimes wrongfully) assume most offenses will stay the same at a high level. Good teams will put up points, and bad teams will continue to struggle. However, players can outperform their expectations. And coaching matters, too. So, diving into some of the new playcallers got me interested in the Commanders.

“…, [Kliff] Kingsbury on the headset does give [Jayden] Daniels a leg up in his rookie year.”

Yes, the same dude who exiled himself to Thailand would be a boon for the second coming of Lamar Jackson. And, by and large, we got most of Jackson’s first season as a starter with Jayden Daniels taking over as the face of the Commanders.

  • Rushing Attempts per Game: 8.1 (Daniels), 10.5 (Jackson, 2019 – first full season)
  • Dropbacks per Game: 35.3, 30.8
  • Passing Yards per Game: 209.9, 208.5

To be clear, I am still (and have been) Team Jackson. But the defensive shifts have made passing all the more difficult. So, expecting any rookie signal caller to come in and lead efficient AND explosive aerial attacks would be a tall order. However, with a schemer who can draw experience from the college and professional level, Daniels had all the tools to flourish in year one.

  • Play-Action Rate: 18.1%, 3rd-highest
  • Plays per Game: 64.8, 5th-most
  • Early-Down Passing Rate: 55.8%, 8th-highest

Kliff Kingsbury did something similar with Kyler Murray. Feature a downhill runner to force defenses to honor the ground game outside of the QB. Dial-up play-action passes to move the chains. Use RPOs to keep everyone guessing. Unlike the Ravens’ staff (specifically Greg Roman) with Jackson, Kingsbury wanted to marry Washington’s running and passing concepts from the jump. The result was Daniels notching top-three marks in passing yards and TDs of any Washington starter since 2017. And as the team gears up for a playoff run, drafters should keep any skill players connected to Daniels high on their priority list for 2025.

A scheme change will boost Drake London into the Top 12

My bet on the Falcons was two-fold.

First, the hiring of OC Zac Robinson would turn Atlanta into a clone of the Rams. Their pass rate would climb. They’d spend more time in the red zone. In short, the “production pie” would be larger. Second, Drake London would be the primary beneficiary of the team moving on from a target earner like Jonnu Smith and other ancillary options (e.g., Van Jefferson, Mack Hollins, etc.). Both led me to London as a WR with the most to gain ahead of the ’24 draft.

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Jan 5, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (9) celebrates with wide receiver Drake London (5) after a touchdown run against the Carolina Panthers in the second quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images

“So, if London can avoid either multiple FA signings or high-end draft capital dedicated to the offense, he should continue to be a priority target for 2024.”

Admittedly, I was only half right. Sure, London finished as the WR5 on the season. But it didn’t feel like it. Kirk Cousins’s four-game streak without a passing TD filtered down to London’s output (WR30 over this stretch). Atlanta’s WR1 was a WR2 in fantasy just twice in the final eight games of the regular season (assuming a Week 17 championship). Still, the third-year receiver hoarded most of the opportunities as anticipated. 

  • Target Share: 21.7% (2023), 29.3% (2024)
  • Air Yards Share: 30.0%, 38.8%
  • Targets per Route Run: 22.7%, 28.9%

Cousins’s Achilles hamstrung the whole operation. Atlanta ranked 24th in early-down passing rate, and Cousins was just ahead of Derek Carr in passing success rate before Michael Penix took over. Unsurprisingly, London’s targets and YPRR jumped with a healthy QB. Let’s keep the two-game sample of the Penix-London connection in mind, but I’ll still be on London as a top receiving option over the upcoming offseason.

James Cook could be a true RB1

Too many times, I watched James Cook make big plays only to then cheer on Josh Allen or Latavius Murray as they plunged into the end zone. Cook posted top-10 metrics as a runner (8th in rushing success rate) and receiver (fifth in YPRR). But, ultimately, the lack of touchdowns mattered—or, better stated, the lack of shots at scoring a touchdown mattered. So, with Murray out of the picture,  Cook’s path to being an RB1 was clear.

“If Buffalo doesn’t add another short-yardage specialist, Cook’s red-zone opportunities should increase, making his 2023 results easier to replicate in 2024.”

Unfortunately, Buffalo did exactly what I hoped they wouldn’t. Not only did they add a potential short-yardage specialist in Ray Davis, but he was also a productive receiver in college. So, Cook had direct competition at a skillset that separated him from his peers and two teammates (Josh Allen and Davis) vying to snatch away more money touches when the Bills got into scoring position. The situation put Cook into a corner, but he came out on top.

  • Rushing Share: 52.0% (2023), 50.0% (2024)
  • i5 Carry Rate: 14.0%, 48.0% 
  • Target Share: 10.0%, 8.0%

Look at his rushing and target rates. Not much changed between his second and third years. The key differentiator is the middle stat. Cook was the Bills’ goal line back in 2024. Allen’s attempts from inside the five-yard line went from 17 to 12 over the two seasons. Meanwhile, Cook’s carries in the same area tripled. Only David Montgomery and Derrick Henry were more efficient options in goal-to-go situations. And as the injuries start to pile up for Allen, it’s easier than not to see Cook with a similar workload in 2025 as they make another run for the Super Bowl. 

There’s a lot of potential in Jalen McMillan

WR production is the result of talent and situation. Well, usually. For instance, Ja’Marr Chase would be good on any team. But a Triple Crown likely doesn’t happen without his best friend/high-end QB at the helm. But, just a few hours north, we saw how much of a boost Jameis Winston gave to Cleveland’s receivers. Anyway, scrutinizing both elements to find players to stash can yield value.

Such was the case with Jalen McMillan. Before even knowing which team logo he’d don, I was interested. 

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Jan 5, 2025; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Jalen McMillan (15) catches a pass against the New Orleans Saints in the fourth quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

“With time to grow, McMillan can ascend into a mid-range WR2 on a potent offense.”

Yes, his injury history was a slight concern. He was the third of the Washington receivers to go off the board. Plus, there was a hint of uncertainty attached to Tampa Bay’s offense after their OC left for the Panthers. Regardless, like most rookies, McMillan’s talent stood out by the end of the year.

  • Route Rate: 80.0% (Weeks 1-10), 87.0% (post-bye)
  • Target Share: 12.2%, 18.0%
  • UR Score: 4.1, 6.9

Quick plug: check out our Utilization Report tools and analysis. There, you’ll see how we can use stats like UR Score, which condenses workloads and results into a single comparative metric, to evaluate players. Because you’d expect (hope?) McMillan would be running more routes and seeing more attempts from Baker Mayfield with Chris Godwin out and Mike Evans working his way back from injury. However, layering in context (i.e., the types of targets) is what put McMillan on our radar ahead of his mini-breakout.

Mayfield has targeted McMillan the most when under duress, and only Evans has more end-zone looks. I can’t think of too many more scenarios where a good receiver would be handy. Luckily, in the back half of the season, McMillan has excelled at both (team leader in TDs, second in first downs per target)! Even if Evans and Godwin return, neither has the gift of youth on their side, setting McMillan up for another strong year in 2025.

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