I’m going to toss out an idea—We need a new word for wrong.

It’s a binary descriptor. There’s no wiggle room. The label reduces any process, suggestion, or analysis into results you could get from a coin flip. Look, this isn’t about me. I’m trying to defend my fellow analysts. We need all the ammo we can get to survive the season. I’ve got a few options that I want to soft launch …

My process didn’t match the results.

Players outperformed (or underperformed) expectations.

The game flow went a different way.

See the difference? We all get what we want here. “Experts” get a chance to revisit their approach. Gamers gain a new perspective. Everyone grows together.

Anyway, I got some things wrong this year. Sure, some of them were long-shot plays. Others shaped how I constructed my rosters. In either case, after four months of action, it’s always important to highlight what didn’t break my way. However, more importantly, understanding why the process didn’t match the results (see what I did there?) is what can set us up for an even better 2025.

Will Levis will be a streamer worth targeting

The late-round QB strategy has its pros and cons. You can build a roster filled with stars and depth at every other position. But you’re rolling the dice at the most important starting slot. Either way, we’ve seen enough action to know the right traits to consider.

  • High-end pass-catchers—efficient or explosive playmaking talent from a receiver can paper over any concerns about a signal-caller’s throwing ability (e.g., Brock Purdy in 2022)
     
  • Rushing ability—the #KonamiCode rules the early rounds, but a QB with mobility on the wire typically comes with a viable floor and high ceiling (e.g., Justin Fields in 2023)
     
  • Pass-friendly offense—a mix of high throw rates, efficient play-calling, and downfield attempts can keep an offense moving (e.g., Bo Nix in 2024)

Theoretically, the Tennessee Titans had a couple of those things heading into the season. Calvin Ridley and DeAndre Hopkins were supposed to headline the receiver corps. HC Brian Callahan, who helped engineer Joe Burrow’s development, displayed the right approach to QB growth. So, after seeing flashes of top-12 upside in his rookie debut, I was in on Will Levis as a high-priority sleeper candidate.

“With more time to throw and more deep and intermediate pass-catchers (e.g., Treylon Burks, Chig Okonkwo), spike weeks from Levis won’t be an uncommon projection.”

The Titans’ starter checked all the boxes. Levis ranked fifth in designed rushing rate after taking over as the starter in Week 8 of the ’23 season. Tennessee went on a spending spree in free agency to bolster the offense around him. He even had the ideal runout of facing five bottom-12 defensive units to close out this year. But I overlooked most (all) of his red flags from his first year.

  • Completion Percentage Over Expected (Weeks 8-14): -0.8%, 16th (rank out of 28 qualifiers)
  • Passing Success Rate: 44.2%, 20th 
  • EPA per Play: 0.01, 20th 
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Dec 15, 2024; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Tennessee Titans Will Levis (8) drops back to pass against the Cincinnati Bengals during the second half at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

Coincidentally, you actually have to be a functional thrower to be a (real or fantasy) QB. I should’ve known something was up when Levis followed up his four-TD introduction with back-to-back contests with zero scores and an interception. But who could succeed with Treylon Burks as their WR1B? Still, Levis ranked 25th in adjusted completion percentage (accounts for drops and on-target attempts) and ninth in pressure-to-sack rate. Half of his TDs came on deep throws. And yet, the team’s moves suggested he was worth banking on for production. Their opponents thank them for this belief.

On the bright side, the Titans still have some cap space to revamp their offense (better receivers and OL). Plus, Callahan and OC Nick Holz did run play-action and middle-of-the-field passing concepts at above-the-league-average rates without Levis. The hints of goodness are there. If they make the (necessary) switch under center, along with the personnel adjustments, I’ll be back in on Tennessee in 2025.

Looking for an RB to stash? Take Tyjae Spears

I generally subscribe to the “ambiguous backfields” concept while drafting. Essentially, you’re taking a chance at acquiring a team’s RB1 at a discount. However, the reduced cost is due to uncertainty.

Take the Cincinnati rushing attack, for example. After releasing Joe Mixon, the Bengals signed Zack Moss. The former Bills backup was coming off setting career highs in every metric. Meanwhile, Chase Brown’s speed and collegiate workload indicated he could be the lead back under the right circumstances. Of course, backing Brown paid dividends. However, let’s apply a similar process to another team.

If you couldn’t tell by the last section, I thought the Titans’ offense could surprise people (complimentary). In particular, Tyjae Spears had my eye. Tony Pollard had earned a second life in Tennessee after leaving Dallas. But the Cowboys’ RB1 could hardly muster an RB2 campaign. At the same time, Spears was one of four ball carriers to post top-12 marks in YPRR and adjusted yards after contact per attempt. With Derrick Henry out of the picture, Spears was in line for a breakout season.

“The Titans’ GM believes Spears can handle a three-down role… which should give Spears the runway to be an RB1 in 2024.”

I owe you an apology, Tony Pollard. I wasn’t really familiar with your game.

To be fair, it’s not like Pollard churned out an All-Pro season; his inefficiencies on his way out of Dallas lingered. On the flip side, Spears had the juice. So, making a season-long bet on the touches shifting toward the speedy option made sense. But Pollard lived up to his contract. 

  • Rushing Share: 57.0% (2023), 69.0% (2024)
  • Targets per Route Run: 16.8%, 20.4%
  • Explosive Play Rate: 6.0%, 8.2%

Hindsight being 20/20, maybe we should’ve lowered expectations for Pollard the season after he fractured his leg. He even sprained his ankle this season but was back above 3.0 yards after contact while generating more explosive plays. If anything, Pollard gave the injury bug to Spears. After two concussions (Weeks 11 and 17) and hamstring and ankle sprains, Spears could use the offseason to get healthy. Regardless, both RBs having to operate behind a below-average blocking unit with an even worse QB should suppress their ADPs. Until we see more changes in Tennessee, there’s no ambiguity on how to approach this squad.

Michael Wilson is the late-round WR you need

I tend to take a top-down method of evaluating offenses. If the QB is good, their production flows down to their pass-catchers. Naturally, here’s where a receiver’s skillset comes into play. Again, I’ll go back to my Bengals to provide an example. 

Andrei Iosivas won’t (shouldn’t) earn more looks than Ja’Marr Chase. But his attachment to Joe Burrow warrants stashing someone like him on our rosters. In any case, as I surveyed other units, the Cardinals came onto my radar.

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Dec 22, 2024; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Michael Wilson (14) jumps for a reception defended by Carolina Panthers cornerback Dane Jackson (23) during the second half at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

A healthy Kyler Murray would garner top-12 consideration. Arizona’s investment in a top prospect like Marvin Harrison Jr. boosted thoughts of a more potent passing attack. Trey McBride was already an established TE1. Accordingly, more yards through the air would benefit all of the Cardinals’ options. Greg Dortch was the popular pick. I went in a different (read: worse) direction.

“Regardless, Wilson showed promise with Murray…[and] could turn into a worthy pick at ADP over the offseason.”

Before you join me and scoff at the call, let me explain. Wilson played in five of Murray’s eight games to end Wilson’s rookie year. Over the stretch, the Stanford product led the Cardinals’ receivers in routes, targets, and yards. Sure, it was a small sample. Yes, Arizona added another choice for Murray in his progressions. But Wilson’s size and perimeter deployment fit Murray’s style as a passer. And an offseason to get in sync would vault the WR4 into the WR2 conversation. Arizona had other plans.

  • Target Share: 14.0% (2023), 15.0% (2024)
  • Air Yard Share: 26.0%, 23.0%
  • End-Zone Target Rate: 27.0%, 20.0%

The miscues in the Cardinals’ aerial attack were apparent from Week 1 after Harrison accrued four yards. McBride needed four months to find the end zone (as a receiver). Their struggles made any progression for Wilson impossible. And unless we see positive reports of Arizona’s WR1 taking a step forward, we may be targeting even fewer Cardinals for our roster in 2025.

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