What if I told you the NFL's third-best backfield in expected PPR points per game since 2022 generally doesn't have a single RB being taken inside the top 100 picks of any given fantasy football draft?

Is that something you’d be interested in?

Yes, the Denver Broncos are fully expected to suck in 2024. Vegas totals imply that they’ll be the third-lowest scoring offense in the NFL.

Also yes, RBs from bottom-10 scoring offenses historically offer more high-end upside relative to other positions, and full-PPR fantasy footballers will surely find solace in the fact that the Broncos' league-high 144 RB targets were 30-plus opportunities more than all but three other backfields last season.

That RB group was rather clearly led by Javonte Williams (264 touches) over Jaleel McLaughlin (107) and Samaje Perine (103) in 2023, but the newfound presence of fifth-round Notre Dame RB Audric Estime has The Athletic's Nick Kosmider believing that the incumbent starter "will have to earn the starting job in camp."

Learned doctors have noted RBs who are a full year removed from an ACL injury have mightily improved. While none of us mere mortals can predict what the Injury Gods have in store for the NFL, Fantasy Life projections have Williams rather easily leading the way ahead of 2024. Eventual clarity in this situation will produce an RB the fantasy community will embrace: Don't be afraid to buy low on murky situations that accordingly have affordable ADPs.

What is in today’s newsletter?

  • Dwain McFarland’s Tight End tiers are here, and Travis Kelce has company.
  • Ian Hartitz is live with Dwain on YouTube drafting a best ball team on DraftKings — join in on the fun!

Tight End Rankings and Tiers for 2024

by Dwain McFarland

Tier 1 – High-end talents in good situations

Sam LaPorta finished as the No. 3 TE in fantasy points per game (PPG) with 13.8 in a fantastic rookie campaign. Since 2011, no other TE has reached that mark in Year 1, but five have done it by Year 2.

  • Rob Gronkowski (20.7)
  • Jimmy Graham (18.4)
  • George Kittle (16.0)
  • Aaron Hernandez (15.5)
  • Mark Andrews (13.9)

While it is hard to know if LaPorta can take that next step, it is an encouraging list demonstrating a sky-high ceiling. As of today, Amon-Ra St. Brown is the man in Detroit, but LaPorta held his own when they were on the field together with a 25% target share versus 31% for St. Brown.

Travis Kelce has delivered 16.6, 18.6 and 14.8 PPG over the last three campaigns. Last season was his worst finish since 2016, but if we include the playoffs, he finished with 16.2 PPG.

On the one hand, he will face the most target competition he has seen in years. Rashee Rice broke out as a rookie, and the team added Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy. On the other hand, he plays with Patrick Mahomes on a team that should be a top-three pass unit. 

The Chiefs rewarded the 35-year-old with a two-year contract worth $34.3M, but he posted his worst man coverage target share since 2014. His 20% mark dropped drastically from 27% in the two previous campaigns. Kelce injured his knee in the preseason, causing him to miss Week 1, so injuries probably played a role, but it's hard to know to what extent.

Even if Kelce only operates at 80% of his prime (79% last year), he still belongs in this tier. And if health was the issue last year, he offers an upside we aren't sure the rest of this group can reach.

Trey McBride took over the starting TE role in Week 8 and never looked back. Over that stretch, the former Round 2 draft pick averaged 14.9 points per game. His underlying numbers were just as impressive.

  • Targets: 29%
  • Air yards: 26%
  • YPRR: 2.09

The arrival of Marvin Harrison Jr. via the NFL Draft adds target competition, but the rest of the Cardinals roster lacks target-earning challengers. McBride comes with some small-sample risk, but his demonstrated upside rivals LaPorta.

Mark Andrews delivered 17.5, 12.6 and 13.5 PPG in the last three years, giving him two top-three-worthy seasons. Last season marked his lowest target share (21%) since his rookie campaign. Zay Flowers led the team with a 24% target share, but they were nearly dead even on the field together.

  • Andrews: 25% targets
  • Flowers: 24% targets

Lamar Jackson threw for 230 yards per game last season in the team's first season under Todd Monken, but game scripts were wildly in Baltimore's favor. The Ravens lead by four-plus points on 49% of snaps. However, their dropback rate over expectation (DBOE) was 1.5%. If we get more competitive scripts, this offense offers upside in the passing department.

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Around the Watercooler

The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:

📺 Ian and Dwain are LIVE on YouTube! Join them in their quest to becoming fantasy football millionaires.

💰 Matthew Freedman has early picks for Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year. Plus two more rookie bets for the 2024 season.

🤝 Gaining an edge on your leaguemates has never been easier. Join Chris Allen for a 0.5-PPR Mock draft with our Draft Champion.

🏆 Lamar Jackson just keeps winning awards. What a play.

👀 Babe, wake up: New provocative Aaron Rodgers soundbite.

🔥 Revenge games are a helluva drug. Let's just say this WR is ready for his.

🪦 Monte Kiffin passed away Thursday. RIP to a true great.