Week 10. Double digits. Goodbye Daylight Savings Time.

With Week 9 come and gone, we have officially reached and are moving past the midway point of the season.

The memory of fall foliage is now nothing but a whisper in the wind. On the ground, countless light-brown leaves.

Someday, reality and fantasy will cross paths on a hiking trail. Which one will yield to the other?

No one knows.

This is the life we lead.

A Fantasy Life.

As of Tuesday evening, here's an early look at my (preliminary) favorite Week 10 fantasy plays—the guys who (in some combination) …

  • Might be high in my fantasy rankings relative to the industry consensus.
  • Need to be started in most season-long leagues.
  • Must be added if they are on waivers.
  • Possess underappreciated upside.
  • Have advantageous matchups.
  • Should be considered in daily fantasy.
  • Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
  • Are on teams with player-friendly betting odds.
  • Catch my eye with their player projections.
  • Stand out in our Fantasy Life Player Prop Tool.

Some notes.

Updates: After I submit this piece, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my rankings and my projections (accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription), which I will update throughout the week.

Scoring & Ordering: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players are ordered within position roughly (but maybe not precisely) according to my rankings.

Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use.

Bye Week: This week, the Steelers and 49ers are on bye.

Sports Betting Data: Odds are as of 5:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Nov. 5, and based on the consensus lines in our Fantasy Life Odds Page.

Freedman's Favorites: Although we publish this piece as four separate articles broken out by position, I think of it as one cohesive whole and write it as such. With that in mind, please be sure to check out the rest of my favorite Week 8 fantasy football plays in the other positional previews.

Best WRs for Fantasy Football Week 10

Justin Jefferson (Vikings) at Jaguars

  • Vikings: -4
  • O/U: 47
  • TT: 25.5

Last week I highlighted Justin Jefferson as a +700 OPOY value in my midseason futures breakdown, and then he had a season-high 137 yards receiving on 9 targets.

There's nothing heroic about saying that Jefferson is good, but I sometimes think people have grown bored of his brilliance, so allow me to refresh your memory.

In 2022, he won OPOY with a league-best 128 receptions and 1,809 yards receiving. In terms of all-time receiving performances, Jefferson's 2022 season was probably a top-10 campaign. And then in 2023 he did something even more incredible: He had 100-1,074-5 receiving while catching passes from QBs Nick Mullens, Joshua Dobbs, and Jaren Hall for half the season and playing fully in only eight games (with two other partial appearances).

In terms of yards per game, Jefferson's 2023 season amazingly surpassed his 2022 (107.4 vs. 106.4).

And now after his big performance last week, he once again leads the league in receiving (783 yards), and that's despite the fact that Jefferson has already had his bye.

All of this is to say that Jefferson without question is the NFL's best WR … and now he's facing a Jags defense that is No. 2 in largest fantasy boost allowed to WRs (+6.2).

Jefferson isn't just the No. 1 WR in fantasy this week. He's No. 1 by margin.

DeVonta Smith (Eagles) at Cowboys

  • Eagles: -7.5
  • O/U: 42
  • TT: 24.75

WR A.J. Brown (knee) exited Week 9 early and isn't guaranteed to play (or be fully healthy if he plays) this week. Unsurprisingly, Smith had his best game of the season last week with 4-87-1 receiving on 6 targets.

Without Brown in Weeks 2-3, Smith had 20 targets on a 28% target rate and 31% target share, which he leveraged into 14-155-1 receiving despite leaving Week 3 early with a concussion.

If Brown is out, Smith could once again have double-digit targets—especially if the Eagles are also missing TE Dallas Goedert (hamstring), who has neither practiced nor played since Week 7.

Smith has a solid and elevated floor with either 70 yards or a TD in every game but one this year, and he has a vaulted ceiling this week thanks to his matchup against the Cowboys, who are dealing with injuries to CBs Trevon Diggs (calf), DaRon Bland (foot), and Amani Oruwariye (back, IR).

Over the past two years, Smith has 21-281-4 receiving on 30 targets in four games against the Cowboys.

As an unfortunate Dallas sports fan, I'd hate to see what Smith might do against this broken unit with extra targets … but I might be forced to watch it this weekend.

George Pickens (Steelers) at Commanders

  • Steelers: +3
  • O/U: 45.5
  • TT: 21.25

I've highlighted Pickens in this piece in both of his games with QB Russell Wilson. I don't see the point in stopping now, especially against the Commanders, who are No. 28 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 WRs (21.5%).

And as improved as the Steelers offense was with Wilson in Weeks 7-8, it could be even better now coming out of the Week 9 bye.

Throughout his career, Pickens has been a big-play merchant (10.0 yards per target), but his receiving production has jumped to another level with the move from QB Justin Fields to Wilson. 

  • With Fields (Weeks 1-6): 60.5 yards per game | 8.3 yards per target
  • With Wilson (Weeks 7-8): 92.5 yards per game | 13.2 yards per target

Ranking No. 4 this year with a 47% share of air yards and 74% WOPR, Pickens has the ability to turn any target into a long TD, and Wilson is still the kind of passer willing to attack defenses downfield with multiple moonshots.

"WOPR" stands for "weighted opportunity rating," and it measures the overall quality of a player's aerial role in his offense by considering his share of targets and air yards.

Although the Commanders have just acquired stud CB Marshon Lattimore (hamstring), I'm tentatively skeptical he'll be ready for this game given that he exited Week 8 with an injury and neither practiced nor played last week.

Jalen Tolbert (Cowboys) vs. Eagles

  • Cowboys: +7.5
  • O/U: 42
  • TT: 17.25

This one is disgusting, I know. It's what Ian Hartitz and Dwain McFarland might call a "sicko start."

I have the dropoff from QB Dak Prescott (hamstring, IR) to backup Cooper Rush as -5.5 points against the spread (per our Fantasy Life QB ATS Value Chart), so the entire Cowboys offense receives a significant baseline downgrade.

Comparing this game's betting lines from the lookahead market to the current consensus, we can see generally how much of a downgrade Prescott to Rush is.

  • Lookahead Market: Cowboys +2.5 | 48.5 O/U | Implied Total: 23
  • Current Consensus: Cowboys +7.5 | 42 O/U | Implied Total: 17.25

But the Cowboys might be without No. 1 WR CeeDee Lamb (shoulder), who exited last week early with an injury, and they're already missing No. 2 WR Brandin Cooks (knee, IR).

And that could mean extra targets for Tolbert, who has steadily improved since his underwhelming 2022 rookie season (0.4 targets per game, 4.0 yards per target) and is now a viable desperado flier (5.4 targets per game, 8.2 yards per target).

With enhanced volume, Tolbert could provide some underappreciated production against the Eagles, who could once again be without No. 1 CB Darius Slay (groin).

The Deep Route

Darnell Mooney (Falcons -3.5, TT: 25) at Saints: No. 1 WR Drake London (hip) exited last week early. Even if he's able to suit up, he might be limited, resulting in more opportunities for Mooney, who (along with Justin Jefferson) is No. 1 in the league with four games this year of at least 75 yards receiving and a TD. The Saints are extremely thin in the secondary given that they just traded away No. 1 CB Marshon Lattimore and last week were without CBs Paulson Adebo (leg, IR), Kool-Aid McKinstry (hamstring), and Rico Payton (back).

Calvin Ridley (Titans +7.5, TT: 15.25) at Chargers: Since the Week 5 bye Ridley has had 40 targets in four games, and over the past two weeks he has had 15-216-0 receiving on 23 targets without WR DeAndre Hopkins (traded). The Chargers are without No. 1 CB Asante Samuel (shoulder, IR).

Courtland Sutton (Broncos +8, TT: 16.75) at Chiefs: Inconsistency is Sutton's companion. In each of the past two weeks, he has had 100-plus yards on double-digit targets … but three weeks ago he was targetless. Even so, I think this will be an opportunity-heavy game for Sutton as a big road dog against the Chiefs, who are without CB Jaylen Watson (leg, IR) and could also be without CB Nazeeh Johnson (concussion).

Khalil Shakir (Bills -4, TT: 25) at Colts: Shakir doesn't have the easiest matchup against CB Kenny Moore (81.2 coverage grade, per PFF), but he could benefit from the potential absence of WRs Amari Cooper (wrist) and Keon Coleman (wrist). Despite playing mainly in the slot, Shakir has been a consistent big-play machine with 12.0 yards per target since last season.

Xavier Legette (Panthers +6, TT: 17.75) vs. Giants (in Germany): Former No. 1 WR Diontae Johnson (traded) is no longer with the team—the same is true for WR Jonathan Mingo (traded), by the way—and without Johnson, Legette has led all Panthers WRs with a 76% route rate, 25% target rate, and 22% target share over the past two weeks. The Giants are No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 WRs (34.6%).

DeMario Douglas (Patriots +5.5, TT: 17.5) at Bears: On the one hand, Douglas has no more 3 targets in five games this year. On the other hand, he has 9 targets in each of his four other games, and he has an exploitable matchup in the slot against the Bears, who have been without slot CB Kyler Gordon (hamstring) ever since he exited Week 6 early.