It's Week 12. 

In the words of Josh Lyman, "This is grind-it-out time. It's three yards and a cloud of dust."

In just one week, we'll be glutting ourselves on all the pie we can handle (and then some). We'll be watching Planes, Trains & Automobiles and wondering why there aren't more Thanksgiving movies — something Jake and Geoff actually did on The Flex this week:

Plus, we'll be witnessing the last game of HC Mike McCarthy's tenure with the Cowboys, who will lose at home on Turkey Day to the lowly Giants.

But that's next week.

This week, we take what's ours. We get one win closer to the fantasy playoffs. We make that one crucial decision that makes the difference between victory and defeat.

This week, we grind.  

As of Tuesday afternoon, here's an early look at my (preliminary) favorite Week 12 fantasy plays—the guys who (in some combination) …

  • Might be high in my fantasy rankings relative to the industry consensus.
  • Need to be started in most season-long leagues.
  • Must be added if they are on waivers.
  • Possess underappreciated upside.
  • Have advantageous matchups.
  • Should be considered in daily fantasy.
  • Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
  • Are on teams with player-friendly betting odds.
  • Stand out in our Fantasy Life Player Prop Tool.

Some customary notes.

Updates: After I submit this piece, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my rankings and my projections (accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription), which I will update throughout the week.

Scoring & Ordering: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players in separate sections are ordered within position roughly (but probably not precisely) according to my rankings.

Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use.

Bye Week: This week the Bills, Bengals, Saints, Falcons, Jets, and Jaguars are on bye.

Sports Betting Data: Odds are as of 1:15 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Nov. 19, and based on the consensus lines in our Fantasy Life Odds Page.

Freedman's Favorites: Although we publish this piece as four separate articles broken out by position, I think of it as one cohesive whole and write it as such. With that in mind, please be sure to check out the rest of my favorite Week 12 fantasy football plays in the other positional previews.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 12 WRs

Nico Collins (Texans) vs. Titans

  • Texans: -7.5
  • O/U: 41
  • TT: 24.25

After exiting Week 5 early with a hamstring injury, sitting out Weeks 6-9, and almost returning in Week 10 only to be an unfortunate inactive on Sunday Night Football, Nico Collins made his triumphant return on Monday Night Football in Week 11, as he took a screen pass 77 yards to the house on the first play from scrimmage for the Texans …

… oh, wait, what's that? Is that a yellow flag?

The play was called back due to a technically correct but definitely infuriating ineligible man downfield.

Sheesh.

Stripped of that play (as well as another reception that was invalidated via challenge), Collins finished with only 4-54-0 receiving on seven targets.

But some context is required. The Texans never trailed against the Cowboys in a 34-10 blowout victory, so they didn't need to throw at a high rate, and they probably didn't want to overuse Collins in his first game back, so he was limited to a 47% snap rate and 55% route rate.

Even so, he still looked like an alpha when on the field with a 33% target rate and 22% target share.

The Week 11 production disappointed, but the underlying usage was encouraging.

And in all of his other games, Collins has dominated.

  • Week 1: 6-117-0 receiving | 8 targets | 84% route rate
  • Week 2: 8-135-1 receiving | 10 targets | 92% route rate
  • Week 3: 4-86-0 receiving | 10 targets | 85% route rate
  • Week 4: 12-151-1 receiving | 15 targets | 98% route rate
  • Week 5: 2-78-1 receiving | 2 targets | 12% route rate (injured, exited early)

I expect him to return to his former week-winning ways against the division rival Titans, who could once again be without No. 1 CB L'Jarius Sneed (quad), who has neither practiced nor played since Week 7.

Courtland Sutton (Broncos) at Raiders

  • Broncos: -5
  • O/U: 41.5
  • TT: 23.25

In Week 7, Courtland Sutton had a painful zero-target "performance" that had me questioning the existence of several truths I hold dear. I won't divulge what these truths universally acknowledged actually are, but they definitely exist.

Thankfully, since then Sutton has had a palate-cleansing four-game stretch with 28-370-1 receiving on 38 targets as well as 30 yards and a TD passing on two attempts. 

Is that enough to make me forget that he had only 2-32-0 receiving on five targets against the Raiders in Week 5? Or that he had just 5-34-1 receiving on nine targets in two games against them last year?

No … but his recent production is sufficient enough to allow me to forgive.

And it certainly doesn't hurt that the Raiders could be without perimeter CBs Jack Jones (back) and Jakorian Bennett (shoulder), both of whom exited Week 11 early, as well as slot CB Nate Hobbs (ankle), who missed last week.

Against backup CBs Decamerion Richardson (Day 4 rookie), Sam Webb (five coverage snaps since last year) and Darnay Holmes (49.1 PFF coverage grade), Sutton could go off.

Jauan Jennings (49ers) at Packers

  • 49ers: +2.5
  • O/U: 48
  • TT: 22.75

No. 1 WR Deebo Samuel missed Week 3 with a calf strain, and No. 2 WR Brandon Aiyuk (knee, IR) exited Week 7 early with a season-ending injury.

In his three games without Samuel or Aiyuk, the 27-year-old Jauan Jennings has enjoyed what looks like a rare fifth-year breakout.

  • Week 3: 11-175-3 receiving | 12 targets | 89% route rate
  • Week 10: 7-93-0 receiving | 11 targets | 95% route rate
  • Week 11: 10-91-1 receiving | 11 targets | 97% route rate

With his elite usage, Jennings might actually be a surprise No. 1 WR in San Francisco.

I grant that the absence of TE George Kittle (hamstring) in Weeks 3 & 11 has likely given an additional boost to Jennings' production in this small sample, and that should probably temper our long-term enthusiasm, because Kittle (and Aiyuk in future seasons) will eventually return to action.

But for this week there's still a chance that Kittle will sit given that he entered this past Sunday on the doubtful side of his questionable tag.

So Jennings could see double-digit targets yet again this week against the Packers, who are No. 30 in defensive dropback SR (51.1%) and could be without No. 1 CB Jaire Alexander (knee), who exited last week after just 10 snaps and has been in and out of the lineup all season with a lingering injury.

Noah Brown (Commanders) vs. Cowboys

  • Commanders: -10
  • O/U: 44.5
  • TT: 27.25

In the immortal words of Hamlet:

How all occasions do inform against me,

And spur my dull revenge! What is a man,

If his chief good and market of his time

Be but to sleep and feed? A beast, no more.

Sure, he that made us with such large discourse,

Looking before and after, gave us not

That capability and godlike reason

To fust in us unused. … From this time forth,

My thoughts be bloody, or be nothing worth!

Brown is a desperado flier in his #RevengeGame against the Cowboys, but deep-league degenerates might need to dip this far down into the barrel with six teams on bye.

Frankly, they could do worse.

First of all, the Cowboys are No. 29 in defensive pass DVOA (21.4%). On top of that, they're injured in the secondary: Starting CBs DaRon Bland (foot) and Jourdan Lewis (neck) both missed last week, and neither seems likely to play this week.

And the Cowboys are at a large disadvantage in traveling to Washington on a short week to face a divisional rival with extended rest-and-prep time off Thursday Night Football.

The situational spot for the Commanders is pristine, and then there's the usage for Brown. I'm not saying he has overtaken No. 1 WR Terry McLaurin, but over the past month they have had comparable opportunities, with the edge actually going to Brown.

  • Brown (Weeks 8-11): 83% route rate | 18% target rate | 20% target share | 23 targets
  • McLaurin (Weeks 8-11): 80% route rate | 16% target rate | 17% target share | 19 targets

Predictably, Brown hasn't done much with his chances over the past four games (12-170-1 receiving), but he has a respectable 8.5 yards per target this year and 8.0 for his career.

If he hits his short-term median of six targets against the Cowboys, Brown could do enough damage with that to be flexibly deleterious.

The Deep Route

A.J. Brown (Eagles -3, TT: 26.75) at Rams: Minus his injury-shortened Week 9, Brown has 31-582-3 receiving on 45 targets in six games. I'd prefer more volume, but he's No. 1 in the league with a 50% share of air yards, and his efficiency (12.6 yards per target this year, 10.1 for career) is enough to mitigate usage worries. Brown should benefit from three extra days of rest off Thursday Night Football, and the Rams are No. 4 in largest fantasy boost allowed to WRs (+6.4).

Malik Nabers (Giants +5, TT: 18.5) vs. Buccaneers: Nabers has to deal with backup QB Tommy DeVito—but he might not be that much worse than benched starter Daniel Jones, and at least he ranks No. 1 in our Fantasy Life Utilization Score (9.0) as well as WOPR (89%). Nabers should be fresh off the bye, and the Buccaneers might be without CBs Jamel Dean (hamstring, IR), Zyon McCollum (hamstring), and Tykee Smith (knee).

"WOPR" stands for "weighted opportunity rating," and it measures the overall quality of a player's aerial role in his offense by considering his share of targets and air yards.

Zay Flowers (Ravens -3, TT: 27) at Chargers: After a discouraging 1-11-0 receiving performance on one target in Week 7, Flowers has redeemed himself with 18-315-3 receiving on 30 targets in the four subsequent games. The Chargers are without No. 1 CB Asante Samuel (shoulder, IR) and could also miss starting CB Cam Hart (concussion).

Ladd McConkey (Chargers +3, TT: 24) vs. Ravens: Since the Week 5 bye, McConkey has 28-439-2 receiving on 39 targets in six games. He's a solid bet for 6-8 targets each week, and last week he hit career-high marks in targets (9), receptions (6), and yards receiving (123). The Ravens are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (36.0) and largest fantasy boost allowed to WRs (+8.9).  

Jameson Williams (Lions -7.5, TT: 29.25) at Colts: In his eight games this year, Williams has TDs in four … and in those games he has yardage totals of 134, 126, 87, and 80. When Williams scores, he doesn't just score: He goes off. With 10.1 yards per target and 11.4 yards per carry for his career, Williams is a threat to turn any touch into a TD, and his team's week-best implied point total (29.25) once again gives him a decent chance to find the end zone. Perimeter CBs Jaylon Jones (9.3 yards per target) and Samuel Womack (9.6) are exploitable.

Christian Watson (Packers -2.5, TT: 25.25) vs. 49ers: It's as if the Packers came out of the bye last week and said, "Maybe we should highlight the big-and-fast guy." As a result, Watson in Week 11 had season-high marks in target share (25%) and air yards (76%), which he leveraged into 4-150-0 receiving. With HC Matt LaFleur, the Packers at home are a dominant 30-19 ATS (17.3% ROI) and 37-12 ML (15.8% ROI), and the 49ers might be without No. 1 CB Charvarius Ward (personal), who has been out since Week 10.

Abbreviations

  • Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
  • Against the Spread (ATS)
  • Over/Under (O/U)
  • Team Total (TT)
  • Moneyline (ML)
  • Return on Investment (ROI)
  • Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
  • Expected Points Added (EPA)
  • Success Rate (SR)
  • Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
  • Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
  • AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
  • Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
  • Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
  • Short Down and Distance (SDD)
  • Long Down and Distance (LDD)